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A reshaped Ravens’ RB stable requires a fresh look.
While we looked at the Baltimore Ravens’ backfield earlier in the offseason, enough changes have happened to warrant another peek. With that in mind, let’s dive back in and update the Ravens’ backfield situation as we head into the start of the 2022 campaign.
What will this backfield offer after a catastrophic 2021 season?
In a span of less than three weeks last preseason, the Baltimore Ravens lost running backs J.K. Dobbins, Justice Hill, and Gus Edwards to leg injuries — Dobbins and Edwards suffered torn ACLs, whereas Hill ruptured his Achilles.
With their depth chart in shambles, the team wound up with veterans Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray as the top options. Neither player is set to return in 2022, however, leaving the Ravens without a single back who carried the ball for the team last season. With that in mind, it’s a good time to preview what Baltimore’s backfield will look like this year.
Prior to his injury, Dobbins was a popular breakout candidate after he averaged a whopping 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie to go along with nine TDs on just 134 carries. He’s a compact, powerful runner who can break tackles while still possessing elusiveness in the open field. Dobbins is easily the most talented of Baltimore’s options and should fill the primary role.
There’s a caveat within that designation, though, as the Ravens have long been a proponent of the committee approach. In fact, over the past nine seasons there have been only two Baltimore backs to top 1,000 yards in a season: Mark Ingram (1,018 in 2019) and Justin Forsett (1,266 in 2014). Couple that with Dobbins’ perceived limitations as a pass catcher, and it’d be smart to temper any expectations of the Ohio State alum posting RB1 numbers.
Steady as she goes has been the mantra for Edwards, who has gained between 710 and 725 yards rushing in each of his three NFL seasons while averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry. Checking in at 6-foot-1, 238 pounds, Edwards is a big back, but with only 10 career touchdowns in 414 carries. He has never shown a penchant for goal-line work; that could certainly be a byproduct of his height making him too large of a target for consistent short-area usage.
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Edwards has yet to show anything as a receiver, either, managing just 18 career receptions. Take that with the lack of scores, and suddenly the fifth-year pro profiles as a middle-of-the-field, early-down back, which limits his upside. Assuming health, Edwards can safely be penciled in as the complementary option to Dobbins.
Signed in May, Davis is a true journeyman, having played for five NFL clubs in his seven seasons. While he offers little in the way of explosiveness — something his career average of 3.7 YPC can attest to — the veteran is a capable receiver and typically reliable ball carrier with six career fumbles over his 719 total touches, though four of them came in 2021. He’s cut from the same well-worn cloth as Freeman and Murray from last season.
A fourth-round pick in 2019, Hill saw limited opportunities in his first two seasons and then watched his chance for extended work dashed last year by the Achilles injury. He’s more reliable than explosive, and entering the final year of his rookie deal he’ll need to fend off Tyler Badie, who the Ravens snagged in the sixth round of this year’s draft. Badie runs hard and is a capable receiving threat, which might give him a leg up in the battle for a roster spot.
If everyone can stay healthy, Dobbins and Edwards should carry the load. Their lone season together in 2020 saw Edwards (144) get more carries than the then-rookie Dobbins (134) while Ingram (72) was also involved.
This season look for the latter’s touches to be redistributed among the top two backs with whoever emerges among Davis, Hill and Badie getting spot duty. Dobbins has borderline top-20 appeal, and Edwards is a solid RB5 depth type. The rest can be bypassed entirely.
A Baltimore bloodbath at RB has fantasy footballers scrambling for help.
Just as fantasy football owners were starting to come to grips with the loss of J.K. Dobbins, his replacement, Gus Edwards, also appears to have torn an ACL, an injury which would end his 2021 NFL season before it begins.
In that event, the snakebitten Baltimore Ravens will have lost both of their top-two running backs in the past 10 days. A third running back, Justice Hill, joins them, but he had lost his job prior to an Achilles injury.
Veteran Le’Veon Bell was signed to the practice squad, it’s unclear how much of the offense he possibly could have digested in such a short period of time, even if he gets activated for Week 1’s Monday Night Football tilt at the Las Vegas Raiders.
Running back Ty’Son Williams, a 2020 rookie practice squader, is the safer bet for the bulk of the action this week, and likely the rest of the way. The Ravens may attempt to pair Williams with Bell, given the latter’s immense talent as a receiving outlet.
While we don’t know for sure yet if Edwards will be done for the season, the initial reports sound anything but encouraging. He’s almost guaranteed to miss Week 1, and if we don’t hear the dreaded confirmation of an ACL tear in the next 48 hours, he may not be an automatic drop just yet.
Be patient, but if you have roster room and open waivers right now, check for Williams and Bell, although he looked fairly close to washed up in 2020. Williams is fresh and, at 6-foot, 220 pounds, has the size to withstand an NFL beating. The BYU product is no stranger to injury that granted him this opportunity, tearing an ACL of his own in 2019. He probably was drafted or added already on the wire in competitive leagues that chose late, but it’s worth a look.
This situation is fluid and developing, so be ready to pounce on the wire as soon as possible. The Ravens may not even be done yet adding running backs. There’s a chance someone like Todd Gurley, who has been in contact with the team this offseason, could be in the cards, given his receiving prowess. That is, if Bell doesn’t show enough to be elevated to the active roster, because he, too, is obviously a talented pass-catching back.
Expectations of fantasy-relevant Ravens for 2021.
After averaging an NFL-best 33.2 points per game in 2019, along with 407.6 yards, the Baltimore Ravens saw those numbers slip to 29.3 points (seventh) and 363.1 yards (19th).
In response to that regression, the Ravens added free-agent wideout Sammy Watkins (37-421-2 w/ KC) and first-round receiver Rashod Bateman, which they hope will elevate dual-threat Lamar Jackson as a passer. Still, there are a lot of unknowns entering the 2021 fantasy football season, so let’s look at Baltimore’s offense.
From a purely statistical standpoint, Jackson’s second full year as a starter wasn’t that different from his first. In 2019, he averaged 208.5 yards passing, 80.4 yards rushing and 2.9 combined TDs per game. Last year, Jackson posted 183.8 yards passing, 67 yards rushing and 2.2 combined scores per contest. Those shortfalls add up over a full season, though, and it was the difference between elite fantasy production and fringe QB1 status.
Expect a bit of a bounce back from Jackson this year as Baltimore’s investments in the passing game (four high-round picks in three years) and offensive line (signing Kevin Zeitler and Alejandro Villanueva) should help diversify their attack. Don’t expect much of a philosophical shift, however, as what makes the Ravens dangerous is the threat of Jackson making things happen with his legs.
Could we see a little more throwing and a little less running? Sure, but at age 24 there’s little reason to rein in Jackson, who has never missed a game due to injury. Even with two documented cases of COVID-19, one of which cost him a game in 2020, Jackson is draftable as a midrange QB1.
One of the great mysteries of last season was why it took roughly two months to give Dobbins steady work — he averaged 4.2 carries per game in his first six and 12.1 over his final nine. The Ohio State product showed great burst, averaging 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie and scoring in each of his final half-dozen games. While he continued to share snaps with Gus Edwards, Dobbins’ numbers over that stretch project out to 1,403 yards and 20 TDs over a 17-game campaign.
Those numbers are still based off modest usage, and if Dobbins can carve out a larger slice they could improve quickly. It’s a dubious proposition to rely on the Ravens to change up a model that has led the NFL in rushing the past two years, so Dobbins is best drafted as a lower-end RB2, but there’s top-10 upside.
Edwards has quietly carved out three solid seasons as part of Baltimore’s running back committee, averaging 717 yards and 3.3 rushing scores on a 5.2 YPC clip. He’s been a nonfactor as a receiver, though, with just 18 career receptions, which figures to limit his usage to running situations.
While the departure of Mark Ingram leaves 72 carries to be redistributed, the smart money suggests most of those will go to Dobbins. Consider Edwards a decent fourth/fifth fantasy RB and possible handcuff.
After seven NFL campaigns, Watkins’ status as talented but oft-injured is well earned. The former fourth overall pick missed a combined 23 games over the last five seasons, which is a big reason Watkins has topped 1,000 yards just once as a pro.
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His yards-per-catch have declined each of those five seasons, though some of that can be chalked up to his role in a Chiefs offense that featured the NFL’s top field stretcher in Tyreek Hill. Still, the bloom is off the rose. Between the injuries and middling production, Watkins isn’t worth more than final-round flier consideration.
Brown returns as the nominal WR1 in Baltimore after leading the team in catches (58), yards (769) and TDs (8) last year. The diminutive wideout has shown he can get deep — only nine WRs had more receptions of 40-plus yards last year — but the consistency has yet to develop with Brown topping 100 yards in a game just twice. The question is whether adding talent around him will create more opportunities by opening things up or fewer looks in the NFL’s least-active passing attack; Baltimore threw 406 passes last season, 79 fewer than Tennessee, which ranked 30th.
To date, Hollywood has been more straight-to-DVD than summer blockbuster, but he’s arguably the only Ravens receiver worth drafting, albeit no more than a WR4.
When Baltimore used the 27th pick in the ’21 draft on Bateman there were thoughts that he could be an immediate starter given his advanced route running and toughness after the catch. Unfortunately, Bateman went down early in camp and ended up undergoing core-muscle surgery that could keep him sidelined into October or later.
Even if there are no hiccups in his recovery, he might have trouble carving out a significant role as a rookie. He’s purely dynasty-league material.
Andrews led the Ravens with a 64-852-10 line in 2019 and was just slightly off Brown’s pace last season when he posted a 58-701-7 mark. His size has been a boon down in the red zone, and he has generally operated as Jackson’s go-to receiver.
Even with an influx of new and developing options there’s no reason to think that Andrews won’t continue to be a volume target. He deserves serious consideration once Travis Kelce and Darren Waller are off the board.
