Let’s be honest. Ranking the best NBA draft prospects is a fool’s errand. But evaluating this class is an especially challenging assignment.
Let’s be honest. Ranking the best NBA draft prospects is a fool’s errand. But evaluating this class is an especially challenging assignment.
One of the top pre-season prospects (Patrick Baldwin Jr.) is playing for a mid-major program that has just two wins so far this season. Other top prospects (AJ Griffin and Peyton Watson) are not getting much playing time for their high-major programs. Meanwhile, guard Jean Montero is playing in the inaugural Overtime Elite league. How do we compare his productivity to other prospects? I’m frankly not sure.
But nevertheless, my big board exists. Rather than going small, I decided to blow it up and do the opposite. Why did I go ahead and rank 101 prospects if this class has been so challenging to evaluate? There are two distinct reasons.
One is that I’m absolutely crazy and get a very fulfilling satisfaction with the completion of a mock draft and big board because it feels complete. It looks awesome seeing as many names as I can fit on one article, even if the science behind the rankings is a bit inconclusive.
The other reason is that as I make more big boards throughout the year, it’s interesting to track the progress (and regression) of certain prospects. I am inevitably wrong about most of these placements! But this article serves as a barometer for where I feel certain players are at in their development right now.
Note that several notable prospects (e.g. freshmen Max Christie, Matthew Cleveland, Nolan Hickman, Hunter Sallis, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Jeremy Sochan, Kobe Bufkin) were excluded because I expect them to go back to school to improve their draft stock.
More likely than not, some of those players will declare for the 2022 NBA draft. When that happens, I obviously will not have them outside of my top 101.
Until then, as we prepare to turn the calendar into a new year, here are the debut rankings for 101 of my favorite prospects.
All stats are accurate as of Dec. 14 and are from Sports-Reference unless noted otherwise.
Who should the Houston Rockets select if they get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft?
While fans are now enjoying the NBA postseason, there are several teams that didn’t make the playoffs with full attention on the draft.
Now that the regular season and play-in tournament are both complete, the order is set for picks No. 15 to No. 60. However, we will have to wait until the lottery on June 22.
For more details on odds for when each team in the lottery will be on the clock, you can read this post by our own Charles Curtis.
Meanwhile, we also have a pretty clear idea of which prospects have opted to declare for the 2021 NBA draft. But any stragglers still have until May 30 to make their decision in order to be eligible for draft consideration.
Scouts and executives around the league will have an even better feel for this class come June 21, when the combine begins in Chicago.
After that, all those who hired either NCAA-certified agents or do not already have any representation have until July 19 to decide if they wish to remain in the class and forego their collegiate eligibility or return to school.
Until then, however, this is how we predict the two rounds of the 2021 NBA draft will shake out:
As the NBA’s 2020-21 regular season nears its close, the league’s next wave of talent is preparing to take the great leap to become pros.
As the NBA’s 2020-21 regular season nears its close, the league’s next wave of talent is preparing to take the great leap to become pros.
Players have until the end of this month, May 30, to apply for entry into the 2021 NBA draft. They will then have until July 19 to determine whether or not they plan to stay in this class or (unless they hired an agent who does not have NCAA certification) return to school.
This is obviously an incredibly difficult decision and as the majority of early entry candidates have made their intentions public, those who are testing the waters are already weighing their options.
Fortunately, the NBA’s Undergraduate Advisory Committee (UAC) exists to help answer some of those questions.
Reminder as NBA prospects ask for feedback on their draft stock, they're given a projected range from Advisory Committee: Lottery, 15-30, 31-45, 46-60, Undrafted.
Prospects get updated written feedback from execs after NBA combine prior to withdrawal date.
The advisory committee, which began in 1997, offers feedback to prospects on their potential draft stock. As many prospects are facing pivotal decisions about their future, this kind of intel is incredibly important.
Players like Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert and Baylor’s Jared Butler both went through this process last season, likely were not satisfied with the results and opted to return. Now, after tremendous efforts last season, both are projected first-rounders.
These decisions have tremendous financial implications for these individuals as well. For example, even if Kispert or Butler went with the last pick in the first round in 2020, they would have likely earned a contract worth around $5 million over three years. This year, even if they went outside of the lottery at at No. 15 overall, that would be around $8.5 million.
With that in mind, for the latest version of For The Win’s 2021 NBA draft big board, I’ve provided my evaluation for the top prospects expected to be in the pre-draft process. Players excluded from this exercise were likely because the reporting suggests that they are going back to school.
Note that these decisions were fully based on where I would have each player ranked, not a projection, although various conversations with scouts as well as other talent evaluators around the league have factored into my evaluation.
This includes some names to watch in the men’s tourney.
March Madness is set to begin, which means for college basketball fans, it’s the most wonderful time of the year. But it’s also one of the busiest times for scouts and executives around the NBA.
Last season, the men’s NCAA Tournament was canceled due to COVID-19, which makes the stakes even higher for those involved in this year’s event. It will be a fascinating few weeks of basketball, all unfolding in Indiana, and the games are sure to further illuminate who may be most worth targeting in the 2021 NBA Draft.
But in addition to the spotlight of college basketball fully underway, we have now also seen the entirety of the 2021 G League season. That included the inaugural campaign for the Ignite, a pathway to the NBA for top talents who sought an alternative to the NCAA. Their exciting playoff run taught us more about prospects including Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga.
So with those results in mind, and with the college basketball postseason on the horizon, we have ranked the Top 100 prospects most likely set to make the jump to the NBA next season.
Our methodology for the rankings includes conversations with folks around the league, learning the general consensus surrounding a player, as well as a deep dive into stats and game film.
To put everything in perspective, we have also included everyone’s previous ranks from our last update, published on Jan. 22. This helps show whether a player is trending up or trending down and also helps illuminate how much can change in just two months of action.
As the madness begins during the men’s NCAA Tournament, follow along to see how these players are performing, as many will make a case to move up or down once the nets are cut on Apr. 5, 2021.
Even though it took a while for us to see the G League Ignite in action, the bubble season is underway in Florida, giving us a more confident assessment of the full class. Meanwhile, in the NCAA, enough of the regular season has eclipsed to extract meaning from a larger sample size of scouting.
Despite the unusual circumstances surrounding the collegiate season due to the ongoing pandemic, this class has multiple players that project as potential stars. Remember, though, this class is incredibly fluid.
This mock should provide an update, if the season ended today, on the talent that could be available when your favorite team is on the clock.
For more information on many of the second-rounders, as well as some sleepers that were not included in this mock draft, I expanded in my big board published late last month.
The main difference from the big board is that this mock factors intel, team fit, front office philosophy and roster construction. For example, there are more international players included here because I’m projecting teams with surplus picks will select draft-and-stash players rather than roster four or five rookies next season.
This draft order, which factors in trades and pick protections, was pulled from the latest Tankathon update following the games on Feb. 11.
While the college basketball season has been strange, we have a more clear idea of which top prospects are expected in the 2021 NBA draft.
While the college basketball season has been strange, we have a more clear idea of which top prospects are expected in the 2021 NBA draft.
Unfortunately, putting together a big board at this point in the year is an incomplete task. The inaugural NBA G League Ignite team, a new developmental team that plays exhibitions and is meant to serve as an alternative to college for some players, has not yet begun their season.
That makes it impossible to track development for top prospects like Jonathan Kuminga and Jalen Green as well as potential risers like Isaiah Todd and Daishen Nix.
While there are some honorable mentions included for some fringe prospects, several names (e.g. Duke’s DJ Steward, UNC’s Caleb Love, Texas Tech’s Terrence Shannon, Miami’s Earl Timberlake) were omitted on account of projected returns to the NCAA. As of right now, however, it is still a great challenge to predict who will be in this class.
The key to this draft is fluidity and being willing to accept that things will change quickly. Players will have slumps and some may be slow to adapt to the new normal. Rankings now are hardly reflective of where they will be as we get closer to March Madness.
Note that any conversations with NBA scouts mentioned in the article were held under the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of their teams.
Now that the 2020-21 NCAA Men’s Basketball season is in full swing, we examined what the 2021 NBA draft class is shaping up to look like.
Now that the 2020-21 NCAA Men’s Basketball season is in full swing, we examined what the 2021 NBA draft class is shaping up to look like.
Consider this an introduction to the top players in college, as well as those on the inaugural NBA G League Ignite team, a new developmental team that plays exhibitions and is meant to serve as an alternative to college for some players. We’ll also look at international prospects who are playing abroad.
Due to the ongoing pandemic, this is going to be an unusual season for all hopeful pros. The bizarre offseason made it hard to get in the swing of things and some may struggle early as they adjust accordingly. As they already have been, games will inevitably be postponed or outright canceled.
Even in a normal season, a mock draft this early is a bold move. With these circumstances in mind, our mock draft is obviously going to look very different from how the actual night will shake out next offseason.
But it does offer a general starting range to encapsulate where the top prospects may be selected if they draft were held now. It also gives some insight on the kinds of players who may be available when your favorite team is on the clock.
The draft order was determined by projected wins from ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, whose projected real plus-minus has “outperformed” the over-under figures from Las Vegas since 2015. Pick swaps and trades were pulled from the future draft picks section on RealGM.
Note that all conversations with NBA scouts mentioned in the article were held under the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of their teams.
With the NBA trade deadline approaching, there may be some swaps of picks in the 2021 NBA Draft, which is considered to be a strong class.
With the NBA trade deadline approaching, there may be some swaps of picks in the 2021 NBA Draft, which is considered to be a strong class.
Now that the rosters for the McDonald’s All-American Game have been announced and the Hoophall Classic is complete, top prospects are emerging as future stars in the league.
This list does not include any of the top international prospects who will likely be selected in 2020 like Killian Hayes and Theo Maledon. It also does not mention any of the top returning players in the nation as it will be unclear who will opt to play in the NBA and it is still tough to predict at this point.
Instead, it offers an introduction to the current high school seniors and the international
All statistics are updated through February 3, 2020 and are pulled from D1Circuit.com, MaxPreps and RealGM unless stated otherwise.
1. Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State (Committed)
Catalina Fragoso-USA TODAY Sports
Guard, 6-foot-7, 18 years old, Montverde Academy (Florida)
Cade Cunningham is currently the anchor for Montverde Academy, which is being called the best high school team of all-time. They are currently ranked as the top school in the nation. The point forward is so good that an NBA scout recently told Yahoo’s Krysten Peek he would likely be the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft if he were eligible. That indicates he might already be the best player who is not currently in the league. For proof: Cunningham averaged 18.0 points and 8.5 assists per 36 minutes at the U19 World Cup, trailing just one player for total assists (40) during the tournament. With his size and his playmaking ability, he is already showing flashes of becoming a future franchise cornerstone.
2. Jalen Green, Uncommitted
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Guard, 6-foot-5, 17 years old, Prolific Prep (California)
Jalen Green is an incredibly explosive athlete who has improved as a shooter over the past few years as well. The scorer has become a more consistent and reliable option on the floor, offering an attacking mentality that will continue to develop as his competition continues. One of his crowning achievements thus far: He took home tournament MVP during the U17 World Cup in 2018, leading the United States to the gold medal behind 15.7 points per game. He averaged 7.7 three-pointers per 40 minutes during this competition, showing he is a fearless shooter. His natural stroke from the free-throw line shows that his three-point percentage will likely increase within time, too.
3. Evan Mobley, USC (Committed)
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Big, 7-foot-0, 18 years old, Rancho Christian (California)
Evan Mobley was 2019’s Gatorade Player of the Year in California and came into the summer as the highest-rated player on RSCI, which compiles all of the rankings on recruiting sites like 247 Sports and Rivals. The versatile big brags a 7-foot-5 wingspan with a 40-inch vertical leap, a rare measurement combination. He has recently been listed as a small forward, however, which Sports Illustrated’s Jeremy Woo says “points to the dissonance” between his current identity and the best eventual fit in the NBA for someone his size. Still, there is arguably more to like about Mobley’s potential than that of 2020 projected lottery big man James Wiseman.
4. Scottie Barnes, Florida State (Committed)
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Forward, 6-foot-8, 18 years old, Montverde Academy (Florida)
Scottie Barnes currently plays alongside Cunningham at Montverde Academy and has a lot to offer as he continues to develop. He is a stat-sheet stuffer capable of putting up impressive lines for points and rebounds as well as assists. Like Cunningham, he has a point-forward mentality which is elevated by the fact that he is also measured with an incredible 9-foot-1 standing reach. Barnes can be a plug-and-play option for almost any team on both offense and defense in the NCAA and eventually in the NBA. That was an especially attractive trait for him for Team USA in the U19 World Cup, where he was a strong facilitator from the elbow. He assisted on 16.8 percent of scores for his team when he was on the floor despite never acting as his offense’s primary playmaker.
5. Ziaire Williams, Uncommitted
(Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
Wing, 6-foot-8, 18 years old, Sierra Canyon (California)
Ziaire Williams is currently playing high school basketball at the high-profile Sierra Canyon. While he had to sit out the first few months of his senior year because of transfer rules, he has been a force to be reckoned with already. But that was no surprise for those who have followed the prospect. Williams led his AAU team (which also briefly included the aforementioned 2021 projected lottery pick Jalen Green) in points as well as rebounds and assists per game on the U17 circuit. The prospect has shown he is an above-average finisher near the rim, which will be important as he continues his growth. The Stepien’s Ross Homan also believes Williams can become the best shooter in this class. It will be fascinating to monitor his collegiate decision as he is the highest-rated recruit without an NCAA commitment yet.
