Tag: Fantasy football risers and fallers

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 10

Assessing fantasy outlooks for the hot and cold.

There are a lot of changes in the 2021 NFL season, top among them being the decision to add a 17th game, which brings a new dynamic in that the regular season is going to stretch into the middle of January and teams are looking at games now with injured players differently than they have in the past.

Thanks to COVID, the rules for placing a player on Injured Reserve have changed. If an injury is expected to last more than a couple of weeks, players are put on IR with the ability to bring them back instead of making it season-ending.

This has been a death blow for a lot of fantasy leagues. To go along with the ability to put players on IR without the ability for fantasy owners to do the same, teams at the top are making business decisions based on potentially losing a game in October or November with an eye to February.

We’ve seen this play out with two of the top teams in the NFC in the last two weeks. In Week 8, Dak Prescott came out for warmups to play the Minnesota Vikings and looked ready to go – completing his warmup routine without any seeming discomfort. Less than 30 minutes later, he was made inactive. Last weekend, the Arizona Cardinals were outwardly optimistic that QB Kyler Murray would play. Ninety minutes before game time, he was ruled out. Both teams won, briefly ushering in the Cooper Rush Era and Colt McCoy Era, respectively.

The NFL is copycat league, so this may become more the norm than the exception as teams look to the long-term prospect of winning a Super Bowl than the short-term damage benching a star player to buy an extra week of healing time can have. Welcome the new world of the NFL and fantasy football.

Here is the Week 10 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

RB James Connor, Arizona Cardinals

He made this list a month ago, because he was scoring touchdowns and seemed like the Cardinals best choice at the goal line for a bellyflop touchdown. He was averaging 3.5 yards a carry, so his primary value was that of a touchdown prospect. However, after scoring five touchdowns in his first five games, not only has he scored six more in his last five, in that span he has rushed 52 times for 253 yards (almost five yards a carry). What he is doing is amazing considering the other weapons around him in the Arizona offense. He’s a must-start or trade candidate for a bounty in return, especially with Chase Edmonds out for a month with an ankle injury.

TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Back in late September, both Henry and Jonnu Smith were on the Fantasy Football Fallers list as both were drains in weekly fantasy rosters. Smith remains a fantasy dud, but, while Henry is still a reception and yardage disappointment from his Los Angeles Chargers numbers, the reality is that he has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games. Keep in mind, he has 33 or fewer receiving yards in five of those six games, but, at a time when tight ends beyond the Big Three (of Four) are just looking to cash in on touchdowns, Henry is checking all the boxes. He’s making it look easy in the red zone, and five TDs in six games in outstanding for anyone.

[lawrence-related id=461916]

RB Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles

There’s something to be said about Howard’s career track. He was a bell cow in Chicago who had a nose for the end zone. The same was true early in his first run with the Eagles. Then he got supplanted and moved to Miami, where he was mired doing nothing. He has been back with the Eagles for two weeks. In that time, Howard has 29 carries for 128 yards (a 4.4-yard average) and three short touchdowns. Granted, he’s a one-trick pony – he brings nothing as a receiver – but it’s still a pretty good trick. He’s not a long-term answer, but he’s nice to have in your arsenal if you need him.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns

While there are some who are filled with heartburn that Odell Beckham Jr. was unceremoniously released Monday, one who isn’t is DPJ. After catching four passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6 against Arizona, Peoples-Jones was active but didn’t play in Week 7 and Week 8, due to a groin strain. With OBJ gone, he had his chance to make plays and do what he does. He only caught two passes, but they went for 26 yards and a 60-yard touchdown, moving Peoples-Jones into the undisputed team lead for receiving touchdowns with three. It’s clear he and Baker Mayfield have a rapport and, with the complaining in-house competition gone, he has deep sleeper potential.

RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

It hasn’t translated into touchdowns yet, but the competition in the Denver backfield is getting closer to a dead heat all the time and time isn’t on Melvin Gordon’s side. Gordon had a 70-yard touchdown run in Week 1, but hasn’t had a run of more than 14 yards since. In the last six games, Williams has had a run of at least 30 yards in four of them and is averaging a half-yard more per carry this season. Right now, this looks like a time share that favors Gordon – at least in terms of touchdowns and carries – but Williams keeps making his case for playing time, and pretty soon the Broncos’ coaching staff is going to listen.

Fantasy Football Fallers

RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

Nobody who has Elliott would ever consider benching him if he’s healthy, but this Cowboys offense is built more to throw and use the run game as a change of pace than the other way around. Over his last three games, Elliott hasn’t hit 70 yards rushing in any of them, is averaging 57 yards a game rushing and 33 receiving and hasn’t scored a touchdown. Few players have the pure athleticism and talent that Elliott possesses, but this has to be concerning for those who have seen his returns diminishing against three teams (New England, Minnesota and Denver) that had records of .500 or less when they met.

WR D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers

Moore got off to a great start to the season. In his first four games, he caught 30 passes for 398 yards and three touchdowns, making him a “must-start” in any format. However, as Sam Darnold has returned to Earth with a thud, so have Moore’s numbers. In his last five games, he has caught 23 passes for 279 yards and no touchdowns. You don’t always have to score touchdowns to make a fantasy splash, but five catches for 56 yards and no TDs, on average, for five games starts getting players benched.

RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

If you look at Jones’ season numbers, you may be asking, “Where’s the problem?” However, take out the first three weeks. In that span, Jones wasn’t setting the world on fire, but he scored five touchdowns to make up for it. Over his last six games, he has fewer than 60 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards in four of them and has scored just two touchdowns. Even more troubling is that A.J. Dillon has been seeing an increase in his share of the rushing workload that could continue to hurt Jones as the weather starts getting colder and the Packers look to win through the power-run game. Nobody will bench Jones, but it has to be a concern with diminished returns from what has come to be expected.

QB Daniel Jones, New York Giants

I’ve been on record from the beginning as not being a “Daniel Jones guy.” I thought the Giants were foolish to take him with the sixth pick in the draft when they could have traded down and still got him, and little has changed my opinion in the two-and-a-half years since. Through nine games, he has eight TD passes – one TD in four games, none in three and two TDs in two. He has thrown for less than 250 yards in six games, including each of the last five. He has two rushing touchdowns, but those came in the first two weeks of the season. Jones is still on a lot of fantasy rosters, but for the life of me I can’t figure out why, because the weekly production has been hot garbage for the most of the season.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 9

Which players are on the rise and who’s taking a midseason tumble?

In many sports, the arrival of the trade deadline is something that is looked forward to as the also-rans in any given season are given the opportunity to build for the future by unloading talented veterans to a contending team.

It typically isn’t that way in the NFL, where there are always rumors of big names trading places, but it rarely happens. The trade deadline is 4 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Nov. 2, and there will be a flurry of rumors of players moving to new teams, but too often the rumors don’t become reality.

For fantasy owners, this can be an important time if you have any of the players on the trade block. Owners of Zach Ertz are elated that he finally got out of Philly after months of contention and goes to Arizona – a high-octane offense in need of a playmaking tight end.

Some players have been disappointments, mired on fantasy benches or a “silk hat on a pig” type (see Brandin Cooks). The deadline will come and go as it always does, but will this year be the year where things are different and there are a flurry of moves? Don’t hold your breath.

Here is the Week 9 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

It’s difficult to overly excited about anyone from the Jets, but Carter has started making a case for himself to be considered. He is the Jets’ leading rusher and has more than twice as many carries as anyone on the team. He has double-digit attempts in each of the last four games and has scored three touchdowns in that span. He is also the team’s leading receiver with 26 receptions – 17 of those (and 162 of his 226 receiving yards) coming in the last two games. He has emerged as a strong daily fantasy player and is making it more difficult to keep out of league lineups.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts

It has taken a while for Pittman and Carson Wentz to get on the same page, but Indy started winning when Pittman became the primary focus of the passing offense. In his last four games, Pittman has scored four touchdowns and posted yardage of 86, 89 and 105. He has 594 receiving yards and nobody else on the team has more than 265. He has quietly asserted himself as the go-to receiver in this offense and is still being viewed as a fantasy bargain who has to prove it. That won’t last much longer. He’s already proved it.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

From the day Christian McCaffrey went down in Week 3, the majority of the rushing workload has fallen on Hubbard. In his last four games, he has had a pair of games with 24 rushing attempts (gaining 101 and 82 yards, respectively) and has scored two touchdowns in the last three games. With McCaffrey expected to return, Hubbard’s value may plummet, but he has earned the opportunity to be more than just a McCaffrey handcuff. If CMC goes down again (he missed time due to three injuries last year), you could have a fantasy starter on your hands.

[lawrence-related id=461741]

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

This may be a little more projecting that anything based on a breakout performance, but what has always held Goedert down was sharing time with Zach Ertz. When Ertz was injured in the past is when Goedert posted his most impressive numbers. In the five games he played prior to the Ertz trade, he was averaging three catches and 43 yards. In the two games since the trade, he has nine catches for 142 yards, including his biggest yardage games of the season (70 and 72 yards). While he isn’t a lock to be a fantasy stud suddenly, his trajectory is pointing strongly up with his primary competition out of the picture.

D’Ernest Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns

Browns fans didn’t know what to make of their run game when both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were out in Week 7 against Denver. The only person who seemed unfazed was head coach Kevin Stefanski, who said Johnson could get the job done. All he did in his first start was rush 22 times for 146 yards and a touchdown. Chubb came back last week and Johnson’s production took a dip. He rushed just four times for 22 yards in Cleveland’s loss to Pittsburgh, but he scored another touchdown. With Hunt expected to be out four to six weeks, Johnson is going to have the opportunity to fill his role in the offense, which could mean double-digit carries and chances in the screen game. He’s a reach, but one that could be dividends for a team in need if he does fill Hunt’s role in the offense.

Fantasy Football Fallers

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

Early in the season, it looked as though the Matthew Stafford might not be as lopsided as it appeared. In his first two games (against San Francisco and Green Bay), Goff threw for 584 yards and five touchdowns. It’s been all downhill in the six games since. He has thrown for less than 225 yards (with his team behind in most if not all of them for considerable stretches of time) four times and has just three TD passes in those six games – including just one in his last four games. He brings nothing as a rusher and has brought next to nothing as a passer. The Lions are in line for the No. 1 overall pick as the lone winless team in the league and that player will likely be Goff’s replacement.

Jonnu Smith, TE, New England Patriots

The Patriots made a big splash in free agency by signing the two hottest tight ends – Smith and Hunter Henry. Both got off to brutal starts, but Henry has turned his fantasy season around, scoring four touchdowns in his last five games. The same can’t be said for Smith. Through eight games, he is averaging less than 24 receiving yards a game and has just one touchdown catch. For a guy who blew up for the Titans last year just in time to make millions, he has been unqualified bust for the Patriots and has rendered himself almost unplayable.

Buffalo Bills running backs

This one has been frustrating for owners of both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Mos has scattered four touchdowns in the first half of the season, but is averaging just 3.7 yards a carries with his worst two weekly averages coming in the last two weeks against teams that have struggled to stop the run (Tennessee and Miami). Singletary is averaging 5.1 yards a carry but hasn’t had more rushes than Moss since Week 2 and has a total of 18 carries in the last three games. With neither being a threat as receivers, it has become impossible to play either of them and expect production.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Allen is one of the rare players who historically has himself on both the Risers and Fallers list in the same season. The problem with Allen is consistency from a fantasy perspective. In seven games, he has scored just two touchdowns (one on Sunday), but after hitting 100 yards in each of his first two games, he hasn’t topped 77 yards in the five games since and has three games with 50 or fewer receiving yards in three of those. It’s impossible to recommend benching Allen, because he came to fantasy rosters to start every week and you get the feeling he’s going to have another one of his three- or four-game streaks where he plays lights out and scores a handful of touchdowns. It’s what Allen does.

Eric Ebron, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

The best thing that happened to fantasy owners with Ebron is that he was inactive Sunday with a hamstring injury and couldn’t be played. That’s the good news. The bad news is that a player who has posted some monster weeks over the years is a complete afterthought in this offense. Fellow Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth had as many receptions (seven) in Pittsburgh’s Week 7 game with Seattle than Ebron has had in the six games he has played. The numbers are staggeringly bad – seven catches for 47 yards and no touchdowns. The Steelers may try to move him at the trade deadline, but with those numbers who wants him?

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 8

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 8.

There was a time that if a quarterback threw 400 passes, there was something wrong with the offense – either it had no run game or the defense was awful and required the offense to throw to try to stay in games they were losing.

Those days are over. Now 500 is the new benchmark and is the reason why fantasy football quarterbacks tend to be devalued – because so many can put up big numbers. This is a growing phenomenon. In 2018, 15 quarterbacks threw 500 or more passes, including four throwing more than 600. In 2019, 15 threw 500 times or more with four topping 600. Last season, 15 threw 500 or more passes with three throwing more than 600 times and both of the Super Bowl quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes) were in the top five for pass attempts.

Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow has thrown 212 passes, which, based on the historical 16-game schedule, would have him on pace to throw 485 times – and he ranks 24th in pass attempts. Brady leads the league with 303 pass attempts, which, if the pace continues, would see him finish the season (based on 16 games, not 17) throwing 693 passes.

While the 17-game schedule will change team and league records with the additional game to pile up stats, we’re at a strange time in the league where numbers created by quarterbacks and receivers continue to grow, and there’s no reason to think they will ever come back down.

You still have to be able to run effectively to win in the postseason, but it doesn’t seem to matter nearly as much in the regular season.

Here is the Week 8 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

TE C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals

At a time when tight end owners are feeling the pinch with George Kittle on IR, Darren Waller missing time, and just about everyone not named Travis Kelce struggling to put up consistent numbers, Uzomah had been s pleasant surprise. Over his last four games, he has posted more than 90 yards twice and scored five touchdowns. The majority of fantasy tight ends are played in hopes of picking up 40 or 50 yards and scoring a touchdown. Uzomah is making it harder to keep him out of lineups, and his price for daily players is going up as he becomes a bigger part of the Bengals offense.

RB Damien Harris, New England Patriots

It’s been a common refrain among fantasy owners for years that running backs in Bill Belichick’s offense don’t get the ball consistently enough and they’re all role players. Not this season. Harris has 95 carries – almost three times the number of carries for the other Patriots running backs combined (37) – has three 100-yard rushing games, and has scored five touchdowns. In his last two games, he has rushed 32 times for 207 yards and three TDs. He may not seem like a “must play,” but those numbers speak for themselves.

WR A.J. Green, Arizona Cardinals

Green went undrafted in most leagues, and there has been good reason for that – he’s fourth on his team in receptions. However, he has been targeted six or more times in five of seven games and, over his last four games, has 66 or more receiving yards in three of them. He is Kyler Murray’s go-to deep threat, averaging almost 17 yards per reception – three yards more per catch than Christian Kirk and four more than DeAndre Hopkins. He isn’t a guy you want to play every week, but he has a role in a high-powered offense, which brings value with it.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

All the talk around Miami is the potential that Deshaun Watson will be coming to town. Apparently Tua has heard those words. After missing three games due to injury, he’s had the most prolific two-week passing stretch of career, throwing for 620 yards and six touchdowns. There’s no telling if there is truth to the Watson rumors of whether Tagovailoa will be part of that trade or not, but he’s playing like a man who fears his job is on the line. While it isn’t translating into wins, it’s making fantasy owners giddy with excitement.

[lawrence-related id=461517]

RB Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams

When Cam Akers went down with an Achilles injury in July and Sony Michel was later acquired, the thought was they would be sharing the workload. That hasn’t been the case. Of the six games he has played, Henderson has never had fewer than 13 carries, is averaging 16 carries, and has scored five touchdowns. In the four games since missing Week 3 game against the Buccaneers, Henderson has 66 rushing attempts, while Michel has just 25. For what he has shown in Akers’ absence, he has earned his opportunity to stake his claim to playing time.

Fantasy Football Fallers

WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

Lack of production for Robinson has been a problem all season. He has played in all seven games and has caught just 23 passes. His high-water mark for receiving yardage in a game is just 63, he has five games with 35 or fewer receiving yards, and has scored just one touchdown. For a guy who came to rosters with the expectation of being an every-week starter, only the desperate are still playing A-Rob on weekly basis – and are getting burned consistently for doing it.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers

For a guy who, by all accounts, is playing for his football life as a starter. He can’t help but be looking over his shoulder at Trey Lance, and it sure doesn’t look like it he’s doing anything but paving the road for the transition. In the five games he has started, he has three games with 190 or fewer pass yards and, in his last two starts since the open competition with Lance began, he has thrown for just 346 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Everyone knows the job will eventually go to Lance, but Jimmy G is doing his best to speed up that process.

WR Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans

People are still treating Jones like the first-ballot Hall of Famer he is, but the numbers don’t lie and speak the truth that Jones is at the tail end of his career. He has missed two of the seven games the Titans have played and, of the five he has played in, he has more than three receptions in just one of them. He has only one game with 60 or more receiving yards, and his next touchdown as a Titan will be his first touchdown as a Titan. Playing him in fantasy lineups now is being done much more on reputation and recollection than his current production.

RB Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Up until Tampa Bay got to the playoffs last season, Jones was the main man in the Bucs backfield and Leonard Fournette was the No. 2 option. Fournette took over in the postseason and hasn’t looked back. Through seven games, Jones has just 41 carries for 181 yards and one touchdown with just one appearance with more than 27 rushing yards, which came in a blowout Sunday as Fournette was being rested. He isn’t used as a receiving back, because he has brought nothing to the table this season (three catches, 33 yards, no TDs). At this point, the only way Jones retains any fantasy value is if Fournette gets hurt. Until then, he’s little more than a handcuff – and not a productive one. Nobody likes to leave the defending Super Bowl champ, but a trade might be the best thing his career.

WR Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

In his first season with the Panthers, Anderson was a bargain find in PPR leagues, catching 95 passes for 1,096 yards and three touchdowns. He was touted as having chic fantasy star potential as an upside guy heading into this season. The results so far? 18 catches (on 49 targets!) for just 204 yards and two touchdowns. Things have gotten worse as the season has gone along. In his last three games, despite being targeted 25 times, he has caught just eight passes for 55 yards and one TD. Unless dropped passes becomes a way to score points in fantasy leagues, Anderson does more harm than good to an owner.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 7

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 7.

Every year when a team invests in a quarterback in the first round, there is one of two scenarios that tend to play out.

One is that they throw the guy in the first on Day 1 and take their chances. 2) Under ideal circumstances, the organization claims that it’s going to take time with the young quarterback and get him up to speed slowly.

That rarely happens. There were five quarterbacks taken in the first round this year and only two of them were slated to be starters right out of the gate – first overall pick Trevor Lawrence and second overall pick Zach Wilson. The other three were projected to be groomed.

That ended in New England with the surprise release of Cam Newton, ascending Mac Jones to the starting job for Week 1.

Then there were two.

The Andy Dalton Era in Chicago ended in Week 2 when he was injured and the job was given to rookie Justin Fields.

Then there was one.

The 49ers claimed that they intended to sit Trey Lance. He made is starting debut in Week 5 but is still nursing a calf injury coming out of the bye week, hindering his chance to stake a legitimate claim on the starting job from Jimmy Garoppolo.

If a quarterback (other than Jordan Love) is drafted in the first round, regardless of what a coach says, he becomes the starter sooner than projected and gets his chance to make his stand as a franchise guy – for better or worse.

If anything, that timeline is getting shorter all the time, but will it translate into seeing any of them enter upcoming editions of the Fantasy Football Market Report?

Fantasy Football Risers

RB Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears

Being the primary running back in the Bears offense has been a pretty good gig this season. In the four games David Montgomery played before getting injured, he had a pair of 100-yard rushing games and scored three touchdowns. In the two games since he went down, Herbert has rushed 37 times for 172 yards and a touchdown. With injuries sidelining his in-house competition, Herbert could join the elite fantasy back by sheer production – 18 carries for 75 yards in Week 5 and 19 carries for 97 yards and a score last Sunday.

WR Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Everyone keeps referring to Brown as the third wide receiver with the Bucs behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but that is in name only. Despite playing one fewer game that those two, Brown has 29 receptions (two behind Evans and five behind Godwin) and his 418 yards is second on the team (just two yards behind Evans). What makes Brown the more attractive option is that over the last three games is he leads the teams in targets (32), receptions (23), receiving yards (280) and touchdowns (3). He will still have stiff competition for receptions but has quickly become Tom Brady’s most used target.

QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts wasn’t a player anyone outside of Philly would have considered to be a regular fantasy starter, but he’s been about as consistent as any QB in the league in terms of not having the kind of game that loses a week for a fantasy owner. Through six games, he has accounted for two or more touchdowns in five of them. He has a pair of 300-yard passing games and is the Eagles’ leading rusher with 300 yards. At his current pace, he will rush for 850 yards and 14 touchdowns to go along with 23 touchdown passes. Most fantasy owners could live with those numbers, especially with the easiest part of his schedule coming up.

[lawrence-related id=461357]

RB Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs

The injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be a boom for Williams. While he didn’t post huge rushing numbers in his debut as the starter post-CEH, he rushed 21 times for 62 yards and scored two touchdowns. He accounted for 21 of the 24 rushing attempts for running backs for the Chiefs, and Andy Reid seems content to let him continue to be the primary (if not exclusive) running back in the system as long as Edwards-Helaire is out.

WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb has always been considered to be the No. 2 guy in the Cowboys’ pass offense behind Amari Cooper, but he has been putting together some very impressive weekly numbers. He leads the team in targets (49), receptions (33), receiving yards (497), average per reception (15.1), and is tied for the lead in touchdowns (4). He has four games with more than 80 receiving yards and, in his last two games, has blown up for 13 catches for 233 yards and three scores. Cooper may still be viewed as the top dog among Dallas receivers, but Lamb is making a case for himself that is pretty persuasive.

Fantasy Football Fallers

QB Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts

Wentz was drafted to either be a starter or in a platoon for someone who didn’t make a huge investment to land one of the top quarterbacks. However, he is starting to look much more like a game manager than a bona fide fantasy quarterback. He has thrown for more than 251 yards just once in six games and hasn’t accounted for more than two touchdowns in any game. At a time when QBs that can get you points with their legs and their arms, Wentz is a one-trick pony who doesn’t have a great trick. Over the last four games, he has rushed just nine times for 14 yards and hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown this season. If 240 passing yards, no rushing yards and two touchdowns are what you want from a quarterback, he’s your guy.

RB D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

Big things were expected of Swift this season and, while he hasn’t been awful, he hasn’t shown any explosiveness. He leads the team with 34 receptions and has 295 receiving yards and one touchdown, so he brings value there. What is troubling is that he in a time share with Jamaal Williams at running back and appears to be losing that battle. Williams is averaging a full yard more per carry (4.3) than Swift (3.3). Over 65 carries, Swift has had a single carry of more than 16 yards. His four touchdowns in six games has been his saving grace, but when 51 yards is your high-water mark for any rushing in a game, that’s a problem that will be worse if the touchdowns start to dry up.

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers isn’t having a bad season, but he was taken in drafts and auctions much higher this year than he was last year, because he was consistently dominant in 2020 on his way to the MVP. Last season, he threw for 280 or more yards 10 times and had three or more TD passes 12 times. Through six games, he has topped 280 yards just once and has three or more TD passes in just one game. Again, he is posting solid numbers (12 TD passes and two TD runs in six games). But, he just isn’t living up to the kind of expectations fantasy owners had coming off his brilliant 2020 season.

RB Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

Gordon was brought onto rosters to start more weeks than not, and it just hasn’t worked out with him. He is averaging fewer than 12 carries a game, has more than 60 rushing yards just once (in Week 1), and a long run of just 14 yards in the last five games. Over the last three weeks, Javonte Williams has had a carry of 30 yards or more in each game – the kind of production that gets you more opportunities. Those will come at the expense of Gordon, who has done little as a receiver with just 13 catches for 119 yards and no TDs in six games.

QB Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Mayfield has been nothing short of a bust most of the season. He has thrown just six passing touchdowns in six games, has four games with 246 or fewer passing yards, and has 11 or fewer rushing yards in five of six games. Granted, his top two receivers (Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry) have both missed time with injuries, but Mayfield’s production has fallen off hard after a strong finish to the 2020 season. He doesn’t look like a guy you want in your lineup every week with the expectation of winning, especially now that he’s nursing a shoulder injury.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 6

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 6.

Perhaps at no time during the 2021 season has having bench depth been more important to fantasy football owners. At a time when the bye weeks start depleting rosters, injury news (especially at running back) is causing a great gnashing of teeth for fantasy owners.

Owners gripe that there isn’t fantasy depth at running back on draft day, much less when players start dropping like flies. We’ve already seen promising fantasy prospects like Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Raheem Mostert and David Montgomery for the season. We’ve already seen Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Chris Carson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire missing time.

The bad news is we’re only five weeks into an 18-week season and, if history has taught us anything, the hits are going to keep on coming.

Fantasy football risers

RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

There is a lot to love about Robinson. It’s rare when you have an underdog “Rocky” type story, but Robinson has become that with two coaches who clearly didn’t believe in him. As a rookie last year, he got his shot only because the marriage with Leonard Fournette died an ugly death and he was cut a week before the start of the 2020 season. Robinson became the first undrafted rookie in NFL history to run for 1,000 yards. How did the Jags show their appreciation? The signed Carlos Hyde in free agency and used a first-round on Travis Etienne. Thanks a lot. After a brief time split, the Jags went back to Robinson in Week 3. In the three games since, he has rushed 51 times for 315 yards and has scored four touchdowns. He’s no longer a cute story. He’s a legitimate RB1 and nobody acknowledges it.

WR Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills

The Sanders signing had all the appearances of a Randall Cobb sort of deal. He’ll be the third guy in the wide receiver room and that will be that. Nobody got Manny down with that scenario. Through five games with an explosive pass offense, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley have combined to score one touchdown. Sanders had four – in the last three games, where he has caught 13 passes for 222 yards and become the deep threat Diggs was last year. He’s still technically the No. 3 guy (No. 4 if you include Dawson Knox and his recent adventures), but Sanders is making it almost impossible for fantasy owners to keep him out of their weekly lineups.

RB Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

Few people respect the skills of Nick Chubb more than I do. That’s what made the Browns signing of Hunt so strange. Anyone who has Chubb likely doesn’t have Hunt as his handcuff, because Hunt is simply too talented to be available for handcuffing without having invested two picks on Cleveland RBs inside of the first five rounds. Chubb is still the main guy in the offense – in the last three games, he has rushed 63 times for 345 yards and one touchdown. Under ordinary circumstances, that would be death for the No. 2 guy. Hunt is the Browns’ leading receiver and, in the last three games, he has rushed 36 times for 211 yards and four touchdowns. At a time when running backs need to add touchdowns to the mix to win weeks for fantasy owners, Hunt is the rare breed who gets that done as a runner and receiver while clearly not being the No. 1 RB option with his team.

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Let’s be clear on this: Nobody is discussing Burrow in the MVP conversation. But, if you don’t have a Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert or Tom Brady on your roster providing the back-breaking numbers that help win you a week, you’re looking for consistency. Out of the gate in 2021, few have been as consistent as Burrow. He has thrown two or more touchdowns in every game and has topped 260 passing yards in three of those. He likely is a No. 2 QB on most rosters, but his consistency is his payoff. He has never left anyone who put him in their lineup empty-handed. That’s a skill savvy owners without the sexy QB names thrive on.

RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

This is a tough one to heartily endorse if not for the numbers. Connor is averaging just 3.2 yards a carry, but he has become the skinny version of Jerome Bettis of late-Steelers vintage. Back then, Fast Willie Parker is running between the 5s and Bettis bellyflops into the end zone for a quick six. Chase Edmonds and Kyler Murray are the main attractions in the Cardinals run game, but, when it gets to the goal line, Conner is the one calling for choppers. Over his last three games, his rushing average is brutal, but the bottom line is that he has rushed 39 times for 122 yards and five touchdowns. Look at how many RB1s have five rushing touchdowns. It’s a short list.

Fantasy football fallers

WR A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

In the season opener, Brown caught four passes for 49 yards and a touchdown. It’s hard to imagine that has been the high-water mark this season. His owners have played him three times since. In those three games, he has caught six passes for 81 yards and no touchdowns. Granted, anyone taking a Titans receiver understands Derrick Henry is going to have his days. But, even with the arrival of Julio Jones, in more cases than not, Brown was acquired to a fantasy roster as a WR1. He hasn’t lived up to that … even a little bit.

RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Jacobs was drafted as an RB2, unless you’re in a six-player league or avoided the position with your first two selections. He’s missed a game along the way and has scored three touchdowns, which is his only saving grace. In the three games he has played, he has rushed just 38 times for 122 yards and caught 10 passes for just 42 yards. If not for his three TDs, he would be a complete bust. Even with them, he isn’t worthy of being a guaranteed start every week.

WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns

OBJ missed the first two games of the season, but in the three he has been back – without Jarvis Landry in the last two – he has been a liability. Last weekend, the Browns put up a ton of production. It didn’t include Odell. In his last two games, he has four catches for 47 yards. That’s it. He hasn’t been a good fit since he came to Cleveland, and nothing has changed.

RB David Johnson, Houston Texans

Johnson has lived off of 2016 more than anyone. When he had his breakout season in Arizona, he became a “made man” in the fantasy community. He still has fantasy cred in some circles, but it’s time to call it. His only touchdown came in Week 1 (a reception) and, through five games, he has 31 touches for 255 yards. Mark Ingram has 70 touches. It’s time to admit defeat where defeat is obvious. The J-Train has seen its last run.

WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

In the first two weeks of the season, Lockett had 12 catches for 278 yards and three touchdowns. In the three games since, he has 13 catches for 117 yards and no touchdowns. In that same period, DK Metcalf has 15 receptions for 270 yards and four touchdowns. Oh, and by the way, Russell Wilson isn’t coming back anytime soon. Think Geno Smith is going to produce the kind of numbers that make Lockett a must-play? Not the recipe for success that was manifested in Week 1 and 2. Penthouse to outhouse in a hurry.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 5

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 5.

There is a fantasy football trend becoming more popular all the time – complementing every-week stars in your lineups with players going against teams fielding high-powered offenses and shaky defenses that look worse when they’re in “prevent” mode to close out a win.

Opposing quarterbacks facing the Kansas City Chiefs have thrown for more yards than Patrick Mahomes. Opposing quarterbacks of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have thrown for more yards and thrown more touchdowns than Tom Brady. Opposing quarterbacks facing the Dallas Cowboys have thrown for almost 300 more yards than Dak Prescott. Opposing quarterbacks facing the Baltimore Ravens are averaging 293 yards a game. Opposing quarterbacks facing the Green Bay Packers have thrown more touchdown passes (10) than Aaron Rodgers has (8). The Rams are allowing more yards a game (397) than they’re producing (391).

The only exception to this has been the Buffalo Bills. After losing in Week 1 at home to Pittsburgh, they’ve outscored their opponents 118-21. They still beat up people the old-fashioned way, but for a lot of the teams getting the tout as being Super Bowl contenders thanks to their offenses, their own prowess is coming back to roost on their defenses.

The longstanding tradition of stacking your lineup against the dregs of the league will likely never go away. But with the aggressive offenses that are reaching the top, more people should be looking at when are the Chiefs, Bucs or Cowboys coming to town.

Here is the Week 5 Fantasy Market Report.

Fantasy Football Risers

RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons

Patterson has never lived up to being a regular in fantasy lineups (at least those who aspire to win), because he’s never deserved to be. He’s bounced around the league and may have finally found his spot. Known more as the most dangerous kick returner in the game, he’s become the main scoring threat in Atlanta. He’s second on the team in receptions (18). But, Matt Ryan has thrown eight touchdown passes and four have been to Patterson. He also is second on the team in rushing (27-119) and has their only rushing touchdown. And he can still return kicks 109 yards to get you needle-in-the-haystack points. When one offense has nine touchdowns and one guy has five of them, you should want that guy.

TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

Is Knox the Robert Tonyan of 2021? When evaluating the talent of the Buffalo pass game, Knox doesn’t come to mind, because he has just 15 catches for 144 yards. But, in his last three games, he has scored four touchdowns. When Josh Allen gets to the red zone, Knox is clearly his first choice, because he has scored one more touchdown than Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders combined.

WR D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers

He doesn’t get mentioned a lot among the discussion of the league’s elite wide receivers, but few have been the sole focus of their QB. Sam Darnold is cocked and locked on Moore. He has double the targets of any other Panthers receiver, has caught 30 passes, including eight each in the last three games. His low-water mark for receptions and yards is six and 79, respectively. He’s been a fantasy scoring machine and still seems to be slightly flying under the radar for what he has accomplished.

[lawrence-related id=460882]

TE Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

The thing about tight ends in TE-mandatory leagues is that you have your handful of guys who are deemed to be elite, and then you have guys that get taken because they’re viewed as “red zone guys.” The Tonyan experience. Every few years, a pedestrian tight end catches lightning in a bottle with his quarterback and breaks out. Andrew Luck was really good at finding those guys. Schultz emerged last season when the ordained heir to the Jason Witten throne (Blake Jarwin) went down with injury. Jarwin is back but still an afterthought. He has been targeted just 12 times, catching nine of them. Schultz has been targeted 23 times and has caught 20 of them for 201 yards and three touchdowns. He’s gaining steam as the season goes on. In his last two games, he has caught 12 passes for 138 yards and three TDs – numbers that would surpass many of the big-name tight ends. He has Dak Prescott’s confidence. That’s worth something in fantasy football.

WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

I think everyone is in agreement that it may be time for Ben Roethlisberger to throw in the Terrible Towel and limp off into the sunset. But, aside from being a difficult “Wheel of Fortune” answer because of having every vowel in his first name, Johnson is tearing it up. He’s played only three games but has nine receptions of two them — 92- and 105-yard outings — and a touchdown in the other one. He has consistently brought fantasy owners to the pay window while JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool lag well behind. It’s time to be jump off the Steelers bandwagon, but Johnson may be the exception to the rule.

Fantasy Football Fallers

TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Kittle has never been known as a huge touchdown scorer. His fantasy value has always been tied to receptions and yardage. He has neither this season. He hasn’t scored a touchdown – not a huge surprise given his career penchant for droughts – but he has four receptions in three of his four games and 40 yards or less in two of those. Those who have Kittle on their roster came into with the knowledge he won’t score 10 TDs, but there was a legitimate expectation for 100 receptions. You don’t get there when you’re collecting them four at a time.

QB Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints

In Week 1, Winston seemed to pound a stake into the heart of Drew Brees with a five-touchdown beatdown of the Packers. Since then? Not much. Through four games, he has thrown for 613 yards and provided little in the run game. It’s time to jump off any hope the Winston train will roll again.

RB Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

Sanders was brought onto rosters to be an every-week starter. He has yet to score a touchdown, and his rushing numbers gave gone down quickly and steadily (74-55-27-13). He has fewer rushing yards than his quarterback and fewer receptions than his backup. These are hard times for Sanders, and it doesn’t look to be getting any better, barring a significant change of course offensively.

WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

The fantasy football world has been waiting to see what Denver could have in the receiver tandem of Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Last year, they were denied because Sutton was injured. This year, they’ve been denied because Jeudy is hurt. Sutton has yet to score a touchdown and, with the exception of roasting Jacksonville (who doesn’t?) in his other three games, he has nine catches for 98 yards and no touchdowns. That gets old in a hurry.

TE Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

He was the golden boy last year and has just eight catches for 74 yards and a touchdown through four games – a standard daily stat line for guys like Kelce. He is one-trick pony. Last year, it was a great trick. This year? Not so much. If you aren’t supplying the bread, there’s no need for butter.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 3

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 3.

People new to fantasy football often ask why running backs are the highest-paid in auctions and dominate the first round of every draft. It’s the same reason diamonds and gold are so expensive – they’re rare.

Running backs aren’t rare. Successful running backs are rare. Heading into Monday night’s game between the Lions and Packers, through two weeks of the 2021 season there were only 10 players who had rushed for 150 or more yards – and one of them was a quarterback (Lamar Jackson). On the flip side, 24 receivers had posted 150 or more yards and only one of them was a running back (Christian McCaffrey).

To make things even more pronounced, only one running back has accounted for more than 200 rushing yards (Derrick Henry). There are seven receivers with more than 200 receiving yards – and most if not all were available after a dozen running backs came off a draft board or broke a budget in an auction.

While quarterbacks and receivers are the ones who have the giant week that leads owners to victory, it’s having those few running backs capable of dominating that makes them so valuable.

It’s their rarity that makes them a commodity.

Here is the Week 3 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy football risers

RB Ty’Son Williams, Baltimore Ravens

When it comes to our “Risers” list, we typically look at players who are either available or undervalued. The Ravens’ run game is clearly dominated by Lamar Jackson, but the role of de facto running back seemingly is always up for grabs. Mark Ingram. Gus Edwards. Dobbins. They all got their shot. Latavius Murray was the odds-on choice to be the lead dog, but, through two games, Murray has 19 carries for 64 yards (3.4 a pop with a long of eight). Williams has 22 carries for 142 yards (6.5 per tote with a run of 20 or more in each game). The reason the mantle gets passed in this offense is that the Ravens go with the hot hand and, unless he gets injured, that’s going to be Williams moving forward.

TE Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Two weeks through the season and the leading scorer in the NFL is Tommy Boy’s running buddy Gronk. He has scored four touchdowns in two games – all in the red zone. When Tom Brady gets near the goal line, guys like Mike Evans get the shine. But at the outer and middle edge of the red zone is when Gronk and their shorthand history with each other comes into play. If you own Gronk, his value will never be higher. There’s one ball in Tampa Bay and Brady has to spread it around. If Gronk stays healthy – a really big “if” – he can put himself back in the 2021 TE Mount Rushmore conversation with Kelce, Waller and Kittle. In tight end-mandatory leagues, he’s been a godsend. You can get “Kelce-style” return in a trade right now for one reason – Gronk has earned that respect.

WR Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals

Quick quiz for you. Who leads the Cardinals in targets with 13? Who leads them in receptions with 11? Who leads them in yards with 182? The answer to all of those is Moore – a second-round rookie slot speedster who has quickly earned not only the confidence of Kyler Murray but also of the coaching staff. In most leagues, he is considered a fourth receiver. That’s A.J. Green. He’s making a case that Christian Kirk is the No. 3 guy and he and DeAndre Hopkins are 1-2. He’s going to make more believers.

[lawrence-related id=460513]

QB Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

Carr’s name never gets mentioned in the discussion of elite quarterbacks, but those who have had him as a backup or a QB1b in a tandem system know better – at least in fantasy terms. The Raiders aren’t shy about passing. Everyone knows that. But, they’re 2-0 in large part because Carr has thrown for 817 yards and four touchdowns. Keep in mind, these wins weren’t against the Jaguars and Texans. These were the Ravens and Steelers. If he is somehow still in a rotation, that has to stop, and he needs to be No. 1 and No. 1a, at worst.

WR Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

Williams is no stranger to fantasy owners. He has been the Keenan McCardell of his era. He’s good for five or six passes for 60 or 70 yards and the occasional TD when pressed into a lineup. Last year in the first season paired with Justin Herbert, he was almost forgotten – catching 48 passes for 756 yards and five touchdowns. Those weren’t awful numbers, but they didn’t keep him in a fantasy lineup. In his first two games, Williams has 15 receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns – about 30 percent of his 2020 numbers. Herbert has a new running buddy who requires acknowledgement.

Fantasy football fallers

RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Numbers speak volumes in the NFL. Numbers scream volumes in fantasy football. Christian McCaffrey and Barkley were No. 1 and 2 picks in most fantasy drafts in 2020. Both went down early to significant injuries. McCaffrey has reclaimed his spot. Barkley? Not so much. Two games into his Saquon 2.0 version, he has 23 carries for 83 yards, three catches for 13 yards and 39 fewer rushing yards than his quarterback. Seeing as 41 of Saquon’s 83 rushing yards came on one play, this is a time for legitimate concern and quiet reflection. How many more dud weeks can you take if you’re counting on Barkley?

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger is glacial, so rushing points are a happy accident. If you’re playing Big Ben, it’s for passing production. Two games in, that translates to 483 yards and two touchdowns – numbers that won’t win weekly head-to-head matchups against just about anybody. He’s obviously part of a two-QB plan for those who have him on their rosters, but, against both the Bills and Raiders – admittedly two quality teams – he hasn’t earned a spot in a lineup where he is the QB1b. Toss in news of a recent left pectoral injury, and he’s QB2 unarguably and cut-bait for the twitchy.

WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

In many circles, Robinson was viewed as a WR1 if you were in a 12-player league – 10-player in some. The obvious question was with which quarterback is he going to be that guy? Through two games with both QBs, he has eight catches for 59 yards and a touchdown. He’s transformed from a WR1 to an opponent-based play. Who would have seen this coming? Everyone? Targeted 15 times. All contested. Some double-contested. Until someone else emerges as a legitimate threat, he keeps getting doubled.

TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

There was a time when, in tight end-mandatory leagues, if you had Ertz, you were talking tough. Now, you’re duck-and-cover. On a modest Eagles offense, he is seventh in targets and seventh in receptions. There was a time that those were league totals, not team totals. Four targets in two games. Smells like a draft night gamble turned waiver wire if you want him. You can have him.

RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Taylor was a guy that, if you were in auctions, bidding wars at times got a little out of hand. He was a hill to die on for some auctioneers. It hasn’t been a lack of opportunities with 32 carries for 107 yards and no TDs. And that was with seven in the box. Now there should be nine – eight at a minimum. Not ideal with a QB with two bad ankles.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 2

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 2.

I was involved in a football roundtable discussion leading up to the start of Week 1 and the moderator asked, “What preposterous statement can you make about the 2021 season?”

I offered to go first.

“All four teams from the NFC West will make the playoffs.”

The rest were in unanimous agreement that my idea was preposterous. Last year was the first time such a concept was possible, but these are four teams built to win now. Russell Wilson has never had a losing season. Many project Seattle to finish last in the division. San Francisco has the personnel on both sides of the ball to make a Super Bowl run – their betting odds to make it show that. The Los Angeles Rams like to go all-in for a short-term run and felt all that was missing was a QB and traded for Matt Stafford. Arizona won eight games last year and is viewed by many as the trendy team to make the next big jump to relevance and dominance.

The new playoff format has four division champions and three wild cards in each conference. It can logically be assumed that Tampa Bay and Green Bay will be the prohibitive favorites to win their divisions. Someone has to win the NFC East crown. Beyond two-and-a-half teams, what team would you take right now over any of the four teams in the NFC West to make the playoffs in a head-to-head bet?

In Week 1, none of them played each other and they went 4-0. Three were on the road. Three were against 2020 playoff teams. And they won them all.

Thanks to the expanded schedule, what you do in the division has less of an impact if you have four quality teams than it ever has. Only six of the 17 games are played against division rivals. The other 44 games they collectively play will be against teams from other divisions (4-0 to start that slate), including the NFC North and AFC South.

Injuries may derail one of them, but it can’t derail all of them. Pay attention to the non-division games the NFC West plays this year. The only reason we won’t see more 4-0 weeks is that they’re going to start playing each other. It’s too early to be flying the “Mission Accomplished” banner, but we may be witnessing history that will be hard to replicate.

Here is the Week 2 Fantasy Football Market Report.

Fantasy football risers

RB Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers

Injuries help make careers and the 49ers have made their share in recent years at running back because of injury. Mitchell, a sixth-round rookie, was supposed to be an afterthought on the practice squad. However, an injury to Jeff Wilson and a healthy scratch of third-round rookie Trey Sermon, left Mitchell as the next man up. He responded with 19 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown and made a case that he should be in the mix at a minimum and the lead dog at a maximum considering Raheem Mostert is out an expected eight weeks.

QB Jameis Winston,  New Orleans Saints

With so many weapons missing from the New Orleans offense, it’s insane that Winston threw just 20 passes in his debut as the front man for the Saints. He completed 14 of them and, of those, five went for touchdowns. While one game doesn’t a fantasy starter make, one thing seems certain: Putting the boots to Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers has earned Winston the designation as the unquestioned starter – something that wasn’t a guarantee heading into Week 1. Winston was on the field for 60 of the Saints 62 offensive plays. He’s the starter – for better or worse and can be had on the waiver wire.

WR Corey Davis, New York Jets

There were a couple other mid- to late-round fantasy receivers I considered here (Deebo Samuel and Ja’Marr Chase), but Davis was a player who, despite being handed the No. 1 receiver job with the Jets, was an extremely modest acquisition for a fantasy owner. In his debut, Zach Wilson spent most of the day running for his life. Most of his completions were of the short slant variety, but Davis caught five passes for 97 yards (a 19.4-yard average) and two touchdowns. The Jets didn’t win, and Wilson didn’t look great, but it was obvious Davis is the clear-cut No. 1 guy for Wilson. They’re only going to get more comfortable with each other as the year goes by.

RB Mark Ingram, Houston Texans

There are certain guys I seemed to end up with every year. One who comes to mind is Frank Gore of Indy vintage. He would be my third or even fourth running back because everyone else projected him to hit the wall. He didn’t … until about seven years after that chatter started. He was a draft-and-trade guy in late September. I’ve always loved Ingram. He was ready to bust out before Alvin Kamara showed up in the Big Easy, and they meshed nicely – although cutting into each other’s value. In Baltimore, he showed out before he was quietly shown the door. Any running back for Houston is a problem because they’re going to be behind a lot this year. But, in Week 1, he had 26 carries – 11 in the first half and 15 in the second half. Granted, he only had 85 yards (3.3 a carry), but scored a touchdown. When you’re looking for depth, he’s not going to maintain that workload, but it’s nice to know it’s there. At worse, he’s a 1-yard belly flop for a touchdown late. If Ingram played Jacksonville every week, he’d be a starter every week, but there is value here.

QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

I will be the first to admit that I’m not a big fan of Hurts – he strikes me as a poor man’s combo of Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. However, the Eagles thought enough of him to cut bait on Carson Wentz and stick with cribbage buddies Joe Flacco and Gardner Minshew. A lot of quarterbacks fatten their stats against Atlanta, but Hurts had arguably the best game of his career, all things considered. He completed 27 of 35 passes for 264 yards and three touchdowns. He had an incredible target share for the seven players to whom he threw. He had three TD passes to three different guys and no interceptions. And he ran seven times for 62 yards. He hasn’t reached the point that you bench a pedigreed starter to put him in, but he’s getting closer.

[lawrence-related id=460285]

Fantasy football fallers

RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

What makes Week 1 so troubling for those who used a first-round pick on Elliott was that the Cowboys were never in deep hole. Yet the Cowboys dropped back to pass 63 times and Elliott had 11 carries. Whether that was a one-game anomaly or not against a dominant run defense, it sure looked like an offense fully prepared to pass 50 times like it did when Dak Prescott was lighting up the NFL in September 2020. The fact Elliott had 11 carries for 33 yards and two receptions for six speaks unseemly toward his consistent role. The one takeaway was that, although the Cowboys had a chance to win Thursday night, they lost. That may have changed the tempo had they given Zeke a chance to do what he does.

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

The thing the separates great quarterbacks from good ones and good one from bad ones is the regularity with which they have an absolutely garbage game. Donning a man bun and looking almost disinterested, Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career against New Orleans. Considering it was his first game after his redemptive MVP award, he couldn’t have looked worse. He completed just 15 passes on 28 attempts for 133 yards, no touchdowns — throwing two picks — for a passer rating of 36.8. Nobody who has him is going to bench him, but it least it has to creep into consideration if anything close to this continues.

RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

Often when Minnesota struggles, it is because they don’t get the ball in Cook’s hands often enough. That wasn’t the case in Week 1. He had 26 touches, which, for Cook, should translate into 150 total yards and a couple of touchdowns. He had 20 carries for 61 yards (3.1 per carry) and had six catches for 43 yards (7.2 yards per). The problem isn’t Cook. He still managed 100 total yards and a touchdown. But, his offensive line is hideous – maybe the worst in the league. Things aren’t going to get appreciably better until they have a starting five they can live with – and the left tackle (when he plays) is a rookie. Injuries kill fantasy players and sub-standard starters don’t do much better.

WR Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans

In his debut with the Titans, of the 36 passes targeted to receivers, only six came Julio’s ways. Two that he caught each went for 10 yards. One went for nine. And he got called out by his new coach for a stupid penalty. There is no questioning that Jones is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he is out of his comfort zone for the first time in his career. The early returns are brutal, which could lend to making a low-ball offer of magic beans to a Jones owner because things will get better, but he is known for lapses in production that string together. He will be benched more this week than perhaps any time in his career.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs

When CEH was drafted by the Chiefs, the dreams of huge things were running through Andy Reid’s head. Edwards-Helaire’s rookie season was supposed to be the making of legend. It wasn’t. In 13 games, he had three outings with 70 or more rushing yards and two games with more than 40 receiving yards. That was with Le’Veon Bell and Darrel Williams cutting into his time. He didn’t lack for opportunity in his second act. He had 14 of the 16 running back carries and had three receptions. They accounted for 72 yards – 43 rushing, 29 receiving. A trend becomes a trend when it continues.

Fantasy Market Report: Week 1

Fantasy football player trends and stock updates entering Week 1.

Every NFL season brings a sense of buildup and excitement from the draft to training camp to the preseason – all a prelude to when winning and losing counts. However, as with the rest of our lives in many respects, the COVID-19 pandemic has already created scenarios many deemed to be impossible.

Sports have been forced to adapt and change to the “new normal.” The NBA and NHL put their seasons on hold for five months and Major League Baseball was forced to eliminate 100 games just to get the 2020 season in.

What makes the NFL unique is that it can’t have a scenario under which a team gets shut down if there is an in-house outbreak. In baseball, you can make up games missed by playing doubleheaders. In the NFL, that isn’t possible. You can’t have teams playing four games in two weeks to get caught up. If one team is ravaged with positive COVID-19 tests, the game will still continue unless the NFL opts for a league-wide shutdown for two weeks or so to let the virus clear.

There are far more unknowns going into the 2020 season than we have ever seen at the start of a season. There are some who believe we will see a full season play out, while others are just as convinced the hurdles facing the NFL will result in a stoppage at some point or teams being without some of the star players for extended periods outside of the typical injuries suffered.

A week from now, we will have a much better handle on the status of in-team competitions for playing time, but one thing is certain – 2020 is going to be a season the likes of which the NFL has never experienced.

Here is the pre-start of the season Fantasy Market Report for Week 1. Once we start seeing how rosters shake out once games begin, we will move forward as normal with the FMR determining whose stock is rising and falling.

Fantasy football risers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers fantasy players – Tampa Bay already had quality fantasy talent in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate – all of whom have been solid fantasy producers – but the addition of Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette and Rob Gronkowski suddenly makes this offense look as daunting as just about anyone in the league. But, many were saying the same about Cleveland last year, and we know how that turned out.

Young running backs – There were some surprises when running backs started popping off the draft board in April, as draftees were coming to teams that already had an established running back expected to be the featured back. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Cam Akers (Rams), D’Andre Swift (Lions), Jonathan Taylor (Colts), A.J. Dillon (Packers), J.K. Dobbins (Ravens) and Zack Moss (Bills) are all earning buzz that not only will they have a prominent role in their respective offenses, most of them could end up being the lead dog by season’s end. It’s been some time since so many rookies have been viewed as potential featured backs in their rookie season.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – Last year, most fantasy projections had Murray as a middle-of-the-road fantasy quarterback and he resembled that remark. He was 15th in passing yards and tied for 21st in passing touchdowns. What got him into fantasy lineups was that he was second only to Lamar Jackson in rushing yards (544) and scored four rushing touchdowns. As with the last two MVPs – Patrick Mahomes and Jackson – entering his second season, huge things are expected from Murray and he currently sits as a top-five QB in many rankings. If history repeats itself, he will worth that dice roll on greatness.

Roster diversity – As noted earlier, COVID-19 is going to create a strange new world in the NFL. If a team has numerous players test positive, the show must go on and it will create problems for fantasy owners if some of their star players are suddenly down for two weeks or more. As a result, fantasy owners are being advised to diversify their rosters as much as possible. The days of matching up a quarterback and his top receiver are temporarily on hold, making it an ideal time for owners to get as many players from different teams as possible simply to cover their own backs.

Tight ends – There have been times when only a couple tight ends were deemed must-start fantasy players. For a time, those two were Shannon Sharpe and Ben Coates. Later it was Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. With the changing dynamic of NFL passing games, you have a solid top five tight ends – Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller – not to mention a slew of young talents looking to join their ranks, including Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Austin Hooper, Hayden Hurst and Irv Smith, to name a few. As the game changes, it is a great time to be a tight end with downfield ability.

Fantasy football fallers

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Just a couple of years ago, Rodgers was viewed as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Now, he can be had as a backup QB in just about every league regardless of size. The conventional wisdom was that, in the deepest wide receiver draft class in 20 years, the Packers would use a premium pick on a wide receiver to groom opposite Davante Adams. Instead, the Packers drafted Rodgers eventual replacement (Jordan Love) in the first round, added a running back in the second round (A.J. Dillon) and, despite having nine picks, didn’t use any on wide receivers. You’re on your own, A-Rod.

Old running backs – Running back remains the focus of the first couple of rounds of fantasy drafts and the big money in auctions, but being a running back over 30 is a death sentence. Three Hall of Famers are still in the league, but are being buried. Adrian Peterson is now with Detroit – his fifth team in five years. Frank Gore is with the Jets – his fourth team in four years. LeSean McCoy is with Tampa Bay – his third team in three years. None are ready to get their Hall of Fame clock activated, but their short shelf life with teams may end up starting it for them.

New England Patriots fantasy players – Not too long ago, Patriots fantasy players were selected en masse and often taken early when positions started getting picked over. With Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski gone, Cam Newton is going extremely late (if at all) in drafts and auctions, the backfield-by-committee waters down the value of all their running backs and Julian Edelman is the only receiver getting any attention and that isn’t until the late rounds. Even their kicker has been devalued. This will be a big test for Bill Belichick because the fantasy stock of Patriots has taken a giant hit.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns – Heading into 2019, Mayfield was the hottest rising property in the fantasy world. The addition of Odell Beckham gave the Browns offense talent across the board and Mayfield was expected to take the next step as a QB. Instead, the Browns fell flat and much of the blame was placed at the feet of Mayfield. As he enters 2020, he is in a watershed season that, if things go south again, could get the Browns to look in another direction after the season.

New coaching staffs – Fans may not realize how much repetition goes into an offseason program. Coaches work their players in practices, OTAs, training camp and the preseason. All of those were altered or eliminated by COVID-19. For teams with a veteran coaching staff, it wasn’t as impactful, because of the familiarity between coaches and players. For new coaches, however, the pandemic robbed them of the opportunity to get in the reps needed from May to August to properly evaluate their players. That lack of hands-on work could adversely impact fantasy players from those teams early in the season, making those players a much bigger risk to have in your fantasy lineup the first month of the season.

Fantasy football risers and fallers

Which players are trending up and down two weeks before the NFL season opener?

Seasoned fantasy football drafters know how important it is to keep up with the latest player trends. An easy way to get an overall feel is by looking at average draft placement (ADP) charts, but sometimes the numbers aren’t as quick to respond as gamers need to a clear representation of the landscape.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and are PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. “N/A” represents not enough selections to warrant inclusion in the ADP charts.

Fantasy football risers

QB Gardner Minshew | Jacksonville Jaguars | ADP: 13:04

Minshew’s fantasy stock has gone up incrementally over the past two months, peaking at his current ADP this week. It’s mostly a product of more gamers participating in recent weeks, thus increasing the volume of drafts in which he is being selected. The Jaguars have done a decent job of putting more weapons around him this offseason, and the play-caller is a veteran coach in Jay Gruden. Don’t hesitate investing in the second-year mustachioed quarterback.

RB Sony Michel | New England Patriots | ADP: 8:07

After weeks of seeming like he wouldn’t be activated from the physically unable to perform list prior to Week 1, Michel was indeed recalled to the active roster. He is expected to be worked in slowly after undergoing foot surgery earlier in the offseason. He also has to contend with second-year back Damien Harris and veteran Lamar Miller. The latter may not even make the final roster now that Michel is back on the field. Be cautiously optimistic for Michel servicing an RB3 or flex role.

RB LeSean McCoy | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 13:12

The news of rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn being relegated mostly to a role on special teams has gamers willing to invest more in McCoy, despite him looking washed up in 2019. The cost of finding out if he still has something in the tank is inconsequential. Given the drastic difference in receiving ability, Ronald Jones may rarely see the field on third downs. To make things more interesting, Jones suffered a foot injury in Friday’s practice; it isn’t expected to be serious, according to Bruce Arians. As long as that holds, McCoy is a flier in PPR and a fringe handcuff to Jones.

RB David Montgomery | Chicago Bears | ADP: 4:07

A groin strain after a non-contact injury in practice will cost the second-year rusher two to four weeks. Pay close attention to his weekly status updates, since the two-week end of the range could get Montgomery back on the field in time for Week 1. Groin injuries can be tricky, and consider him no better than an RB3 on draft day.

RB Bryce Love | Washington Football Team | ADP: 11:05

Love has garnered more attention after showing well for himself in training camp. The Washington backfield is a mess for fantasy purposes, although there’s potential value to be found in Love. Adrian Peterson cannot do it forever, and he’s not going to see much action on third downs, which is where rookie Antonio Gibson is likely make his mark. Love’s best path to serious action is outplaying Peterson. Love is a reconstructed knee and a year-plus removed from a second-place showing in the Heisman race.

[lawrence-auto-related count=1 category=1375]

 

RB Zack Moss | Buffalo Bills | ADP: 8:07

Despite being a rookie in this pandemic-afflicted offseason, Moss is quickly gaining steam in the backfield utilization share with Devin Singletary. Buffalo is committed to the ground game, regardless of improving its personnel in the passing attack. The best approach in standard formats is to handcuff him to Singletary, although there’s a hint of appeal for gamers buying on speculation. Cautiously approach all rookies in 2020.

WR Alshon Jeffery | Philadelphia Eagles | ADP: 14:02

Head coach Doug Pederson recently commented about Jeffery being close to returning “soon” from Lisfranc surgery last December. Unfortunately, this is a vague term and wasn’t contextualized. Nevertheless, Jeffery appears to be nearing a return and, even at 30, offers upside in relation to the limited risk associated with drafting him at this stage ADP-wise.

WR Jamison Crowder | New York Jets | ADP: 9:06

Crowder’s ADP has risen almost a full round in the last few weeks. Gamers are coming around on his utility after his WR26 season in PPR a year ago. Rookie receiver Denzel Mims has a bum hammy and is missing seriously valuable time, whereas Crowder remains a consistently reliable outlet for Sam Darnold. Yours truly has been touting Crowder’s undervalued status for two years now, and it’s nice to see more people are finally coming around.

WR Auden Tate | Cincinnati Bengals | ADP: N/A

The Bengals briefly lost A.J. Green for a few practices this week, and rookie Tee Higgins is still learning his way. Tate has been impressive in practice and offers a huge target for Joe Burrow. The passing game will be erratic while the rookie quarterback figures out things on the fly, but Tate has late-round appeal in deep leagues. His optimal worth will come in best-ball and DFS action.

Fantasy football fallers

QB Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | ADP: 12:08

Burrow’s ADP has fallen nearly a round in the last two weeks, which is most likely a market correction as we continue to get farther away from all-rookie drafts in dynasty leagues. Even with settings show just redraft formats since Aug. 1, his numbers fall off, as well. The 2020 No. 1 overall draft pick is a flier in best-ball leagues and shouldn’t be drafted in any single-year format of 12 teams or less.

RB Damien Harris | New England Patriots | ADP: 10:10

Michel coming off of the PUP is the worst thing going against the largely inexperienced Harris. The veteran runner underwent foot surgery earlier in the offseason, and that opened the door for Harris, as second-year back with just four totes to his name as a pro. The Pats have four capable running backs, and Cam Newton is always a threat to steal touchdowns. Toss in the loss of right tackle Marcus Cannon and this situation becomes less likely by the minute.

RB D’Andre Swift | Detroit Lions | ADP: 5:10

An undisclosed injury has the second-round rookie missing several practices, and it now appears his Week 1 status could be “negatively impacted,” according to Dave Birkett, of the Detroit Free Press. Keep close tabs on Swift’s situation as draft season reaches its crescendo.

WR Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | ADP: 14:01

It’s not so much that Higgins is necessarily falling, per se, but more of a case where the rise of Tate has helped plateau the rookie receiver’s rising stock. He’s being chosen in only about 38 percent of drafts since Aug. 1, and there’s little upside in selecting a rookie receiver who’ll be catching passes from a rookie QB.

WR Mike Williams | Los Angeles Chargers | ADP: 14:03

The Chargers’ No. 2 wideout has a sprained shoulder and could miss the first couple of games in 2020. His draft stock already was depressed thanks to a disappointing 2019 and a drop-off in quarterback talent from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor. Williams has a chance to emerge as the year wears on, so there could be a hint of late-round undervalued status going on here.