The best fantasy football gamble of Week 14

It may take scratching and clawing, but this Panther will pounce on the opportunity.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 14

Tracking my predictions: 6-7-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Last week’s inclusion was Washington Football Team tight end Logan Thomas. For the second time in three weeks, the tight end I correctly picked left injured and is expected to miss the rest of the year. Maybe there is something to that “Bonini black cloud” idea after all….

RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

My first thought was to go with Minnesota Vikings wideout K.J. Osborn, but something came up that prevented me from getting this article out as early as I had hoped to give readers enough runway to factor him into their lineups ahead of the Thursday Night Football meeting with Pittsburgh.

Therefore, I pivoted to Hubbard, even though he may not seem like a huge gamble to many, there are several factors working against him.

  • Carolina comes off its bye week with a new offensive coordinator after news broke of Joe Brady being fired during last Sunday’s slate of games. What can we expect on such a short turnaround?
  • Then there’s the Cam Newton stealing TDs factor that always is a huge risk. I’d be remiss if the possibility of Cam getting benched again wasn’t mentioned as a slight fear.
  • I’m not convinced running back Ameer Abdullah won’t see enough action from Hubbard to make him so one-dimensional that he is forced to find the end zone to live up to even being a fantasy flex play. That’s one fall-back option we have with versatile backs … no TD doesn’t automatically mean no bueno in a lineup.

The last time we saw Hubbard starting in place of Christian McCaffrey was Week 8 at this very opponent. The Falcons allowed the rookie to score 16.1 PPR points, which turned out to be the second-highest number of his young career. He ran 24 times for 82 yards and a TD, adding one catch on two targets for a nine-yard gain.

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In the five weeks since, Atlanta has given up three performances of at least 20 PPR points, and all of those backs caught at least three passes, which I feel is a key metric to enable Hubbard to have a career day. That said, he still can be effective in fantasy without breaking personal records.

Of those five games, three other running backs managed to get into double figures, including a Mark Ingram, Tony Pollard and James Robinson — all doing so on as few as 14 touches.

Over the course of 2021, running backs have averaged 26.7 points per game in PPR, and that’s just 0.3 of a point away from making this the third-worst defense at stopping the position. We’ll have to settle with it being the sixth-biggest cupcake. Darn.

It hasn’t exactly been easy, though, as the position has averaged only 4.0 yards per carry and 93 yards a game on the ground. In the aerial game, running backs have balled out, going for 78 catches, 590 yards and a trio of scores to create a TD-per-game average on the season. Only five teams have permitted more receptions, on average, than the 6.5 allowed by Atlanta.

That’s the primary concern here is Abdullah catching five passes or so and effectively kneecapping the upside of Hubbard to whatever he can muster rushing. The veteran was targeted five times in to Hubbard’s two in Week 8, catching three for 35 yards.

It’s a risk I’m willing to take to see this Carolina Cat eat some Dirty Birds for lunch, and the top reason why —  beyond all of the metrics — is head coach Matt Rhule wanting to improve upon the team’s lack of rushing the ball. A dozen teams have run at a higher ratio of plays in relation to pass attempts, and I’m willing to buy into that coach-speak thanks to this matchup. Also, it doesn’t hurt Carolina is coming off a bye week, nor can it be a harmful playing at home.

With all of that established, Hubbard will be the first back to break the century mark against Atlanta in 2021, and he’ll find himself celebrating in the end zone along the way.

My projection: 103 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 catches, 21 yards (21.4 PPR points)

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 9

Which players are on the rise and who’s taking a midseason tumble?

In many sports, the arrival of the trade deadline is something that is looked forward to as the also-rans in any given season are given the opportunity to build for the future by unloading talented veterans to a contending team.

It typically isn’t that way in the NFL, where there are always rumors of big names trading places, but it rarely happens. The trade deadline is 4 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Nov. 2, and there will be a flurry of rumors of players moving to new teams, but too often the rumors don’t become reality.

For fantasy owners, this can be an important time if you have any of the players on the trade block. Owners of Zach Ertz are elated that he finally got out of Philly after months of contention and goes to Arizona – a high-octane offense in need of a playmaking tight end.

Some players have been disappointments, mired on fantasy benches or a “silk hat on a pig” type (see Brandin Cooks). The deadline will come and go as it always does, but will this year be the year where things are different and there are a flurry of moves? Don’t hold your breath.

Here is the Week 9 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

It’s difficult to overly excited about anyone from the Jets, but Carter has started making a case for himself to be considered. He is the Jets’ leading rusher and has more than twice as many carries as anyone on the team. He has double-digit attempts in each of the last four games and has scored three touchdowns in that span. He is also the team’s leading receiver with 26 receptions – 17 of those (and 162 of his 226 receiving yards) coming in the last two games. He has emerged as a strong daily fantasy player and is making it more difficult to keep out of league lineups.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts

It has taken a while for Pittman and Carson Wentz to get on the same page, but Indy started winning when Pittman became the primary focus of the passing offense. In his last four games, Pittman has scored four touchdowns and posted yardage of 86, 89 and 105. He has 594 receiving yards and nobody else on the team has more than 265. He has quietly asserted himself as the go-to receiver in this offense and is still being viewed as a fantasy bargain who has to prove it. That won’t last much longer. He’s already proved it.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

From the day Christian McCaffrey went down in Week 3, the majority of the rushing workload has fallen on Hubbard. In his last four games, he has had a pair of games with 24 rushing attempts (gaining 101 and 82 yards, respectively) and has scored two touchdowns in the last three games. With McCaffrey expected to return, Hubbard’s value may plummet, but he has earned the opportunity to be more than just a McCaffrey handcuff. If CMC goes down again (he missed time due to three injuries last year), you could have a fantasy starter on your hands.

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Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

This may be a little more projecting that anything based on a breakout performance, but what has always held Goedert down was sharing time with Zach Ertz. When Ertz was injured in the past is when Goedert posted his most impressive numbers. In the five games he played prior to the Ertz trade, he was averaging three catches and 43 yards. In the two games since the trade, he has nine catches for 142 yards, including his biggest yardage games of the season (70 and 72 yards). While he isn’t a lock to be a fantasy stud suddenly, his trajectory is pointing strongly up with his primary competition out of the picture.

D’Ernest Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns

Browns fans didn’t know what to make of their run game when both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were out in Week 7 against Denver. The only person who seemed unfazed was head coach Kevin Stefanski, who said Johnson could get the job done. All he did in his first start was rush 22 times for 146 yards and a touchdown. Chubb came back last week and Johnson’s production took a dip. He rushed just four times for 22 yards in Cleveland’s loss to Pittsburgh, but he scored another touchdown. With Hunt expected to be out four to six weeks, Johnson is going to have the opportunity to fill his role in the offense, which could mean double-digit carries and chances in the screen game. He’s a reach, but one that could be dividends for a team in need if he does fill Hunt’s role in the offense.

Fantasy Football Fallers

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

Early in the season, it looked as though the Matthew Stafford might not be as lopsided as it appeared. In his first two games (against San Francisco and Green Bay), Goff threw for 584 yards and five touchdowns. It’s been all downhill in the six games since. He has thrown for less than 225 yards (with his team behind in most if not all of them for considerable stretches of time) four times and has just three TD passes in those six games – including just one in his last four games. He brings nothing as a rusher and has brought next to nothing as a passer. The Lions are in line for the No. 1 overall pick as the lone winless team in the league and that player will likely be Goff’s replacement.

Jonnu Smith, TE, New England Patriots

The Patriots made a big splash in free agency by signing the two hottest tight ends – Smith and Hunter Henry. Both got off to brutal starts, but Henry has turned his fantasy season around, scoring four touchdowns in his last five games. The same can’t be said for Smith. Through eight games, he is averaging less than 24 receiving yards a game and has just one touchdown catch. For a guy who blew up for the Titans last year just in time to make millions, he has been unqualified bust for the Patriots and has rendered himself almost unplayable.

Buffalo Bills running backs

This one has been frustrating for owners of both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Mos has scattered four touchdowns in the first half of the season, but is averaging just 3.7 yards a carries with his worst two weekly averages coming in the last two weeks against teams that have struggled to stop the run (Tennessee and Miami). Singletary is averaging 5.1 yards a carry but hasn’t had more rushes than Moss since Week 2 and has a total of 18 carries in the last three games. With neither being a threat as receivers, it has become impossible to play either of them and expect production.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Allen is one of the rare players who historically has himself on both the Risers and Fallers list in the same season. The problem with Allen is consistency from a fantasy perspective. In seven games, he has scored just two touchdowns (one on Sunday), but after hitting 100 yards in each of his first two games, he hasn’t topped 77 yards in the five games since and has three games with 50 or fewer receiving yards in three of those. It’s impossible to recommend benching Allen, because he came to fantasy rosters to start every week and you get the feeling he’s going to have another one of his three- or four-game streaks where he plays lights out and scores a handful of touchdowns. It’s what Allen does.

Eric Ebron, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

The best thing that happened to fantasy owners with Ebron is that he was inactive Sunday with a hamstring injury and couldn’t be played. That’s the good news. The bad news is that a player who has posted some monster weeks over the years is a complete afterthought in this offense. Fellow Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth had as many receptions (seven) in Pittsburgh’s Week 7 game with Seattle than Ebron has had in the six games he has played. The numbers are staggeringly bad – seven catches for 47 yards and no touchdowns. The Steelers may try to move him at the trade deadline, but with those numbers who wants him?

Rookie Rundown: RB Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State

Hubbard hopes to rekindle his monster 2019 season in the NFL as a rookie.

Chuba Hubbard grew up in Canada and came to the states after running for 6,880 yards on 458 rushes for 82 touchdowns in high school. He committed to Oklahoma State University, where he red-shirted his first year in 2017. He shared the backfield in 2018 with Justice Hill before taking over as the workhorse in 2019.

Hubbard exploded on the national scene that year, rushing for 2,094 yards on 328 carries and adding 23 receptions with a total of 21 touchdowns. Had he left college then, the expectation was that the red-shirt sophomore might have been the first running back drafted. No other running back rushed more than 40 times for the Cowboys that season.

His final season was a disappointment. He was limited to only seven of the eleven games the Cowboys played in 2020 while dealing with a nagging ankle injury. He also discovered just how intensely a defense would load up against a guy coming off a 2,000-yard rushing season.

Height: 6-0
Weight: 210 pounds
40 time: 4.36 seconds

Hubbard was a beast in 2019 when he failed to rush for 100 yards in just one of his 13 games. He topped 200 rushing yards in four separate games. In the bowl game that year, he gained 158 yards on 19 carries (8.3 YPC) versus Texas A&M. He rarely had more than two receptions per game, but was fed the ball between 25 and 35 times nearly every week.

RB Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State stats

Year Games Runs Yards Avg. TD Catch Yards TD Total Yards Total TDs
2018 13 124 740 6.0 7 22 229 2 969 9
2019 13 328 2094 6.4 21 23 198 0 2292 21
2020 7 133 625 4.7 5 8 52 1 677 6

Hubbard is expected to be selected in the third round or later by most scouts. That’s appropriate considering his down 2020 season. And that’s a steal if he bounces back to anything close to the form he showed in 2019.

Pros

  • Capable of being a workhorse back
  •  Patient runner
  • Equally adept at inside and outside running
  • Above average acceleration
  • Lead NCAA in rushing in 2019
  • Durable other than the ankle in 2020
  • Impressed with a scorching 4.36 40-time at Pro Day
  • Great fit for zone blocking schemes
  • Vision and athleticism to work in traffic
  • One-cut runner with burst
  • Attacks tacklers and falls forward

Cons

  • Needs work on pass protection
  • Nine fumbles and lost two at OSU
  • Balance issues need work
  • Minimal experience as a receiver
  • Under-sized for an inside rusher

Fantasy football outlook

Working in an offense that spread out the defense, Hubbard was a devastating rusher that could find the right hole and take off. His smaller frame is a concern that he’ll fare as well in congesting in the NFL as he did in college.  His lack of receiving experience – and the sense he got worse as a pass-catcher in 2020 – coupled with suspect pass protection, have scouts tabbing him as a rotational back.

Hubbard has burst and top-end speed that will serve him well. Particularly since he’s expected to be a Day 3 player, his expectations are hard to set until knowing what situation he falls into in the NFL. Last year was an odd one in the NCAA COVID-19 impacts that rippled out across all teams to some extent.

The ex-Cowboy is one to watch in the summer because he’s already proven his ability to run. Unless he improves his pass protection and receiving, he’ll be limited to a more situational role. And that works in many NFL backfields but it limits his fantasy points from a lack of touches.