Category: Statistical Analysis

Better than average: Quarterbacks

Which QBs were the best against a particular defense?

The best measurement of a quarterback is how they fared against a defense relative to all other quarterbacks that also faced that defense. That removes the element of schedule strength because the best game that the Ravens allowed may only be an average one from a lesser defense.

The Top-8 fantasy performances against each defense were arrayed and each  quarterback were recorded for how often they were in the Top-8, the Top-4 and Top-1 versus a defense last season.

Adding up those numbers yields a BTA score since they are better than the average quarterback that faced a defense. It also weighs the performances since a Top-1 also counts as a Top-4 and a Top-8.

Bottom line – this is about how well a player did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them.

Josh Allen and Kyler Murray tops the list after great fantasy seasons for young quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers was an extreme anomaly, turning in an NFL best 15 instances of a Top-8 performance versus their opponents, and even nine of the Top-4 and yet somehow never managed to produce the best game versus any defense that he faced.

Otherwise, not many surprises. Justin Herbert was astounding in his rookie year and already earned a spot among the elite quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott topped this listing last year, along with Jameis Winston. Prescott and Winston did not play much in 2020, but Jackson lost the effect from all the touchdown passes in 2019.

This is the list of quarterbacks that posted the best fantasy game allowed by an opposing defense all year for 2020.

Consistency Rankings – Tight Ends

Fantasy Football consistency rankings for tight ends

Below is each tight end that played at least eight games and scored at least ten fantasy points in at least 20% of their games. The fantasy scoring used was 1 point per  10 yards rushed or received and with six-point touchdowns and one point per reception.

HOW OFTEN TE SCORED AT LEAST 10 FANTASY POINTS

Tight ends are notoriously bad at scoring fantasy points relative to the other positions and last year only Travis Kelce and Darren Waller made any significant difference on fantasy rosters. About a dozen that produced at least ten fantasy points in half or more of their games.

George Kittle and Zack Ertz were top players in 2019 but suffered through injury and offensive problems. Austin Hooper was one of the most consistent tight ends (77%) in 2019 but changed teams and dropped significantly.

The surprises from last season were Logan Thomas (63%) and Robert Tonyan (60%) who were both Top-5 for consistency and yet had never done much in their previous careers. The Top-5 tight ends are all that matter in fantasy but one or two usually surprise each season.

BEST IN CATEGORY

The position did not fare as well as it had in 2019. There were only two tight ends with more than three 75-yard games for 2020 and yet seven players with four or more the previous year. There were a few tight ends that excelled at scoring – like Robert Tonyan – but fewer turning in high yardage. Again – there are so few tight ends that make any difference in fantasy but at least a couple that surprise.

BEST over last three years

Hunter Henry did well ignoring his lost 2018 season, but he’s never played all 16 games in any season so his consistency gets an asterisk.  Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller have run away with the value in the position. Zach Ertz spent several seasons in the top grouping but looked like he was heading downhill and gaining speed last year.

Notable too is that the scoring is much less in the position with just 10 points considered as a “good” game. Kelce, Kittle, and Waller have been both consistent and highly productive, so they’ll deservedly remain as the top drafted in the position again this year.

Consistency Rankings – Wide Receivers

Fantasy Football consistency rankings for wide receivers

Below is each wide receiver that played at least eight games and that scored at least 15 fantasy points in at least 25% of the games that they played. The fantasy scoring used was 1 point per  10 yards rushed or received and with six-point touchdowns and one point per reception.

HOW OFTEN WR SCORED AT LEAST 15 FANTASY POINTS 

2020 had a slight uptick in the number of wideouts that scored at least 15 fantasy points in over  half of their games. 2019 only managed nine players while 2020 saw 12 hit that mark. More notable was that Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Calvin Ridley managed more than 70% while the previous season only witnessed Michael Thomas with more than 67%.

Julio Jones, Will Fuller, Chris Godwin, and Brandon Aiyuk all missed at least four games so their high rating may have been easier, especially for Will Fuller and Brandon Aiyuk.

There are around 25 receivers that hit roughly at around half of their games with 15 fantasy points. That’s enough for two for each fantasy team so there is depth at the position.

BEST IN CATEGORY

2020 may have been a pandemic year that added to the normal attrition of players, but the wide receivers actually were better than they were in 2019 when only one player (Michael Thomas) had more than nine 15-point games, while 2020 served up  five. Thomas was also the only receiver with more than six 100-yard games, while another five hit that mark last season.

The benefit for fantasy owners is that there were more fantasy points from the top players. That could reflect defenses struggling more with their opt-outs and COVID-19 absences. The position always experiences a constant churn of which players are best each year, but the consistency overall has been better.

BEST over last three years

Davante Adams deserves the high mark, but it is surprising how many “off seasons” even elite receivers experience. Remember too, players like quarterbacks and running backs have their consistency boosted from heavy workloads relative to all other positions. A wide receiver that averages five catches a game only ends with 80 receptions. Anytime a receiver can turn in a good game more than half the time is a difference-maker. He does that while two to four other wideouts on his own team are also attracting targets.

Changing quarterbacks also makes a difference. DeAndre Hopkins fell a bit when he switched from Deshaun Watson to Kyler Murray, while Stefon Diggs went from good to great switching over to Josh Allen in 2020.

Consistency is most impressive with wide receivers, and yet that is heavily influenced by their quarterback. A high ranking says as much about who is throwing the ball as who is catching it.

Consistency Rankings – Running Backs

Fantasy Football consistency rankings – running backs

Below is each running back that played at least eight games. The fantasy scoring used was 1 point per  10 yards rushed or received and with six-point touchdowns and one point per reception.

HOW OFTEN RB SCORED AT LEAST 15 FANTASY POINTS

The decline in “good games” was fairly steep as it is in every season. There were 13 backs that turned in at 15+ fantasy points in at least half of their games played. And the previous year? It was 14. So names change, but about the same thing happens from year to year, even in a COVID-19 season.

Nick Chubb seemed to be a slight disappointment but only from missing games. When he played, he was one of the most consistent. Jonathan Taylor really distanced himself from the other rookies, while D’Andre Swift did well enough to promote optimism for 2021 with the coaching change.

The best surprises in this metric were Myles Gaskin (60%), Austin Ekeler (60%), and James Robinson (50%). The more problematic was that there were only two of the Top-20 in consistency that played all 16 games. That number was six in 2019 and that included four of the top five backs playing in every game that season (Christian McCaffrey,  Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, and Austin Ekeler). And none of those four lasted every game in 2020.

BEST IN CATEGORY

Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry were the ones to own in 2020. They dominated in every category and yet only Cook was that good last year.

BEST over last three years

I excluded certain years for the above backs when they were injured for most if not all of that year. Notable that Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb have improved each year. If Barkley could just stay healthy, he’d dominate but most of the these running backs would have one off year.

Consistency Rankings – Quarterbacks

Fantasy Football consistency rankings for quarterbacks

Below is each quarterback who played at least eight games. The fantasy scoring used was 1 point per 20 pass yards and four-point touchdowns. Rushing scores were six points and with one point per rushing yard.

HOW OFTEN A QB SCORED AT LEAST 20 FANTASY POINTS

This shows why you can wait on a quarterback. The Top-10 turned in solid games most of the time. Patrick Mahomes remains a top scorer but otherwise the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks were rather different from 2019. Aaron Rodgers had an unexpected resurgence and youth was well represented with  Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow were all difference makers when they played.

There were some impacts from COVID-19 in both quarterbacks and his receivers. But the reality is that you almost have to try not to find a quarterback that can score 20 fantasy points or more in at least two of every three games.

BEST IN CATEGORIES

The biggest surprise was how well Aaron Rodgers played in a season where the Packers drafted his replacement and he never found great success with more than just Davante Adams. Deshaun Watson benefitted from always playing from behind so he led in 300-yard games. The position shifted in which players were the best. The league has never produced so many high-scoring quarterbacks only in their first few years, if not their rookie season.

BEST Over the last Three years

No real surprises here other than Carson Wentz seems better than he played last year. This yields an interesting view of the progress (or not) that quarterbacks had over the last three seasons. Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen both have improved each year.

Fantasy Football Targets, Touches & TDs: Week 8

Assessing statistical accomplishments of the top players in fantasy football scoring.

Believe it or not — and ready or not — we’ve just surpassed the midpoint of the fantasy football regular season.

Somehow we’ve made it with minimal COVID-19 disruption, and we can only hope that continues.

In the meantime, there have been the usual surprises, disappointments, and revealing statistics compiled through seven weeks of action so far, so let’s share a moment to take stock in how fantasy 2020 has played out so far. Following are three surprise players, three disappointing players and a trio of telling stats for each of the four main fantasy positions.

To be considered here, players must have played in a minimum of four games, so that automatically weeds out many of the one-week wonders and myriad players who have been curtailed by injury and weren’t going to be considered for those reasons here in any case.

And, as a general rule, we’re training most of our focus on the top-25 ranked players (average fantasy PPR points per game) and top 25 players selected on average at the four positions in redraft leagues.

That established, here goes, starting with …

Quarterback

Surprises

  • Justin Herbert — Many, including the Los Angeles Chargers’ coaching staff in early September, weren’t even planning on the rookie sixth-overall pick playing much in the first half of the season, but here he is — one Tyrod Taylor punctured lung and Herbert five starts later — ranking fourth at the position with an average of 29.8 fantasy points per game. Herbert has thrown for at least 330 yards or had multiple TDs in each of his five starts, including 413 total yards (team-best 66 yards rushing) and four total TDs Sunday.
  • Ryan Tannehill — Going by his preseason QB average draft position of 20, most viewed his eye-popping 2019 second-half fantasy run as nothing more than a flash in the pan, but the Tennessee Titans’ quarterback ranks 10th with 25.2 fantasy points per contest and has accounted for 16 total TDs and only two interceptions in six games.
  • Derek Carr — The Las Vegas Raiders’ QB was a afterthought in most fantasy drafts with a positional ADP of 25, but he comes out of Week 7, ranking 12th with an average of 23.9 fantasy points — just ahead of some bloke named Lamar Jackson. Carr hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s had at least two scoring passes and 22.1 fantasy points in each of his last five outings.

Disappointments

  • Lamar Jackson — Averaging 23.9 fantasy points per outing isn’t all that shabby, but that’s not why you bypassed some talented running backs and wide receivers and drafted a quarterback in the second round. The Baltimore Ravens’ signal caller is getting it done again on the ground (346 yards, 2 TDs) but is averaging only 189.2 passing yards (28th among QBs) and is on pace to throw 27 TD passes after leading the league with 36 a season ago.
  • Matt Ryan — The Atlanta Falcons QB was drafted seventh overall at the position this summer, but currently ranks 17th with an average of 22.9 fantasy points. After a hot start, he’s had 20.9 fantasy points or fewer in four of his last five games.
  • Daniel Jones — With a QB ADP of 14, big things were expected from the New York Giants’ sophomore, but he ranks 29th with an average of only 17.2 fantasy points. Turnovers have been a killer once again as he had 12 (seven interceptions, five fumbles) in seven games.

Telling stats

  • Each of the current top 12 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring has at totaled at least 12.9 points on the ground this season, except one. And that’s No. 8 Aaron Rodgers with 45 yards and no TDs on eight rushes.
  • The three QBs with at least 20 total TDs have gotten there via differing routes. The Seattle Sawhawks’ Russell Wilson leads the way with 22 scores, all through the air, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ ageless Tom Brady has 18 passing TDs and two rushing scores and Arizona Cardinals sophomore Kyler Murray has 13 TDs via the air and a position-best seven rushing scores.
  • How badly has New England Patriots QB Cam Newton struggled as a passer? A whopping 54.4 of his 110.8 total fantasy points (49.1 percent) in five games have come via his legs (244 rushing yards, 5 TDs). Newton ranks 19th at the position with a 22.2-fantasy point average.

Running back

Surprises

  • James Robinson — Undrafted out of FCS Illinois State and unselected in many fantasy drafts (ADP of 55 among RBs), Robinson won the Jacksonville Jaguars’ starting gig in the preseason and ranks sixth at the position with 19.1 fantasy points per contest. He’s tied for fourth among backs with 27 receptions, is third with 225 receiving yards and has reached double digits in fantasy points in each of his seven games while dominating the Jags’ RB touches (85.4 percent)
  • Chris Carson — This Seattle stud was limited to only 15 snaps (and 5.1 fantasy points) Sunday night after coming out due to a foot sprain, but he had put up at least 19.8 fantasy points in four of his first five games and still ranks eighth at the position with 17.5 points per outing. Not bad for the 20th overall running back drafted on average this summer.
  • Mike Davis — He’s coming off his two worst games (13.5 and 8.6 fantasy points) of the season, but he tallied at least 15.5 points in his first four games while stepping in for the Carolina Panthers’ injured Christian McCaffrey in Week 2. And like CMC, Davis has been a revelation as a pass-catcher, snaring 37-of-41 targets for 233 yards and a pair of TDs.

Disappointments

  • Kenyan Drake — Drafted as the 14th running back overall on average, the Cardinals’ Drake is currently 27th with a 12.2-fantasy-point average. A third of his 85.1 fantasy points came in Week 6 against the defenseless Cowboys — his only outing with more than 14.5 points this season — and now he’s dealing with an ankle injury that is expected to sideline him at least a few games.
  • Devin Singletary — It isn’t just that the Buffalo Bills’ second-year back is slightly underperforming his No. 26 RB ADP (32nd with 10.3 fantasy points per game), it’s the uninspiring way Singletary has gotten there with only two games with more than 10.3 points, a 3.8-yards-per-carry average and only one TD on 99 total touches.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire — Sure, the rookie is averaging a solid 15.5 fantasy points with at least 11 in every game and ranks third in RB opportunities (rushes plus targets) with 150, but consider that CEH the only back drafted among the top 10 (seventh overall) at the position who currently ranks outside of the top 12 (19th overall). A lack of TDs (2 in 7 games) has been the biggest issue, and now Le’Veon Bell is in K.C. to cut into the workload.

Telling stats

  • New Orleans Saints stud RB Alvin Kamara not only leads all backs with 53 targets and 43 receptions, his position-best 460 receiving yards is nearly double the total of the next closest running back (Davis’ 233 yards).
  • Of the nine players tied for the league touchdown lead with seven scores apiece, six are running backs: Derrick Henry (7 rushing), Todd Gurley (7 rushing), Dalvin Cook (7 rushing), Aaron Jones (5 rushing, 2 receiving), Kamara (4 rushing, 3 receiving) and Kareem Hunt (3 rushing, RB-most 4 receiving).
  • The league’s two most dynamic running backs in terms of yards per touch — the San Francisco 49ers’ Raheem Mostert (7.3 yards) and Arizona No. 2 back Chase Edmonds (7.4) — have been limited to 62 and 55 touches, respectively, due to health issues (Mostert playing only 24.3 percent of the Niners’ offensive snaps) and role (Edmonds’ 55 touches to Drake’s 126).

 Wide receiver

Surprises

  • A.J. Brown — This second-year Tennessee wideout has missed two of the Titans’ six games due to a bruised knee, but he’s been a terror since returning in Week 5, totaling 71.3 fantasy points (18 receptions for 293 yards and 4 TDs). Brown, who had a preseason wide receiver ADP of 17, ranks fourth at the position with 20.1-fantasy-point average.
  • Robby Anderson — This Carolina offseason signing failed to register on the fantasy radar with his positional ADP of 63, but he’s currently tied for 13th at the position with Tyreek Hill with an average of 16.6 fantasy points. While he only has one scoring grab so far in seven games, Anderson has shown he’s much more than just a deep threat, ranking fifth in receptions (46) on 59 targets and trailing only the Cards’ DeAndre Hopkins (704) with 640 receiving yards.
  • Travis Fulgham — With 23 catches for 357 yards and three TDs in four games (seventh among wide receivers with an average of 19.2 fantasy points), this Philly wideout has been one of the waiver-wire finds of the season — in both fantasy and reality. He’s simply been a godsend for an injury-ravaged and underperforming Eagles’ pass-catching corps.

Disappointments

  • Odell Beckham Jr. — Sadly, OBJ’s season is now done after suffering a torn ACL Sunday in Cincinnati, but he was already falling well short of his WR ADP of 10 with an average of only 12.3 fantasy points (38th among wideouts) before the injury. And 38.4 of his points, including a 50-yard rushing score, came in one blowup in Week 4 (against the Cowboys, of course).
  • Mike Evans — Drafted seventh among wideouts, Evans ranks 30th with a 13.3-fantasy point average. He has snared six scoring passes, but he’s caught only caught 19-of-33 targets in seven games apart from those TDs and his 12.7 yards-per-catch average is down nearly five yards from his 2019 average of 17.3. And just when you think it couldn’t get worse for Evans, Antonio Brown has signed to further muddle the Bucs’ wide receiver mix.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster — JSS, with a WR ADP of 11, leads the Pittsburgh Steelers in targets (42) and receptions (32), but they’ve only amounted to 279 yards (8.7 per catch) and 77.9 fantasy points (13 per game). That ranks him 31st at the position and essentially third on his own team behind rookie Chase Claypool (14.9) and injury-addled sophomore Diontae Johnson (13.0).

Telling stats

  • Among wideouts with at least 25 targets, Claypool and fellow rookie Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings are the only pass catchers averaging more than 12.1 yards per target at 13.3 and 14.9, respectively.
  • Speaking of productive Vikings wide receivers, veteran Adam Thielen leads the league in red zone efficiency, catching all eight of his targets for a league-most six TDs, according to ProFootballReference.com.
  • The Atlanta Falcons’ Calvin Ridley continues to lead the league in total air yards on receptions with 517 (on 40 catches). Among players with at least 20 receptions, only DK Metcalf (15.8), Kenny Golladay (15.0), Darius Slayton (13.4) and Scotty Miller (13.1) are averaging more air yards per catch than Ridley’s 12.9.

Tight end

Surprises

  • Jonnu Smith — He’s struggled the last two weeks with a combined two catches for 22 yards while battling an ankle issue, but the Tennessee tight end Titan still ranks fourth at the position with an average of 12.4 fantasy points. He’s also tied for the tight end lead with five scoring grabs.
  • T.J. Hockenson — The Detroit Lions tight end is looking like he’ll deliver on his second-year promise as he ranks sixth at the position with 11.9 fantasy points per game. He’s caught a TD pass in four of six contests this season, including the game-winning 11-yard score on the final play Sunday in Atlanta.
  • Robert Tonyan — The Green Bay Packers have long been searching for a reliable tight end, and Tonyan just may fill the bill. He’s off to solid start, anyway, despite only 18 total receptions, with touchdown receptions in three of six games, which ties him for the position lead with Smith, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.

Disappointments

  • Zach Ertz — To no one’s surprise, the Philadelphia Eagles tight end is tied for third at the position with 45 targets but has caught only 24 of them for 178 yards, which ranks 25th among tight ends. Overall, Ertz ranks 23rd with only 8.0 fantasy points per contest and is currently on injured reserve with a high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 6.
  • Evan Engram — He was the sixth tight end off the board on average in preseason drafts, but he’s the 24th-ranked tight end (7.9 fantasy points per game) coming out of Week 7. He’s averaging a career-low 8.6 yards per catch and is the only current top-30 tight end without a TD grab.
  • Austin Hooper — The Cleveland Browns’ offseason acquisition, currently recovering from last week’s appendectomy, was drafted to be a top-12 fantasy tight end, but he currently ranks 22nd with only 8.1 fantasy points per game. And that’s even after putting up double-digit fantasy point performances in his last three contests prior to his surgery.

Telling stats

  • Five tight ends — Kelce (56), Darren Waller (56), George Kittle (45), Ertz (45) and Smith (33) — currently lead their respective teams in targets.
  • The Miami Dolphins’ Mike Gesicki paces the position in yards per reception (15.6). The Houston Texans’ Darren Fells (14.6) and the Saints’ Jared Cook (14.1) are the only other tight ends averaging more than 14 yards per catch.
  • On the flip side, Waller (8.6), Engram (8.6) and Ertz (7.4) are the only tight ends averaging fewer than nine yards per catch.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 7

Ranking the top and bottom rookies looking ahead in fantasy football.

Nearly six weeks and more than a third of the way through NFL 2020, the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders.

In our fantasy football realm, the same process is underway with the wheat starting to distinguish itself from the chaff. As usual, this season’s crop of rookies is well-represented in both bins, and that’s our focus in this week’s edition of TTT.

We starting by ranking the top eight fantasy rookies so far and judging their rest-of-season staying power at their current level of production on a 1-10 scale, going from least to most likely. Then we’re doing the same with our top five rookie fantasy disappointments, and rating their respective chances to improve upon their current level of production on the same 1-10 scale.

It’s all to help fantasy general managers make better lineup and roster decisions with the typically volatile first-year players as the stakes grow increasingly larger in the rapidly approaching second half of the fantasy season.

Arguably, the case can be made that a rookie or two (see Edwards-Helaire, Clyde) simultaneously belongs on both of our lists here, but to avoid any spoiler alerts, you’ll just have to read all the way through to find out if any do, in fact, achieve that dual distinction.

One quick note on our fantasy rookie ranks: More weight is given to the more valuable fantasy positions where scarcity helps elevate a running back over a similarly performing wide receiver, for instance. A rookie’s average draft position is factored in, as well, with later-round standouts given precedence over a similarly performing high draft pick.

And you’ll soon notice that no tight ends appear on either list, simply because there have been no fantasy rookies of note so far this season.

All that established, we dive right into our top eight 2020 fantasy rookies to date, with rankings and statistics through play Sunday in Week 6 …

Best fantasy rookies (so far)

8. QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Current position rank (total standard-scoring fantasy points): 16 (125.5 in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 19

Most impressive achievement: The No. 1 overall pick has delivered consistent production, putting up at least 20.1 fantasy points in five of his six starts and throwing for at least 300 yards in four of six outings.

Staying power: 7. There are worries about Cincy’s offensive line — only the Eagles’ Carson Wentz at 25 times has been sacked more than Burrow’s 24 takedowns — but he’s surrounded by a strong cast of weapons and also has displayed some underrated rushing ability with 87 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to date.

7) RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs

Current position rank (fantasy points): 19 (74.2 in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 7

Most impressive achievement: The expected workload has been there with CEH averaging 21.3 touches and 113.7 yards from scrimmage per game, but the lack of touchdowns has been a downer as he’s accounted for only one of K.C.’s five rushing scores.

Staying power: 4. At least Edwards-Helaire owners could cling to the fact that he’s garnered 79 percent of the running back touches over the team’s first six games. But that number almost certainly will go down, starting in Week 7, with the Chiefs signing veteran RB Le’Veon Bell, who figures to command a hefty share of targets and goal-line work. And if Bell is more like Steelers Bell than Jets Bell, CEH could find himself relegated to a No. 2 role.

6) RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Current position rank (fantasy points): 14 (70.9 in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 18

Most impressive achievement: The no-frills Taylor has had at least 14 touches and 62 total yards in each contest and has been efficient as a receiver, catching 16-of-17 targets for 162 yards.

Staying power: 9. It’s a bit concerning that Taylor has only seen 12 rushing attempts in each of the last two contests and has scored once since Week 3, but he’s the lead back on a run-heavy team that doesn’t need aging QB Philip Rivers dropping back too many times.

5) QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Current position rank (fantasy points): 22 (107.2 in 4 games)

Positional ADP: 31

Most impressive achievement: Since stepping in on short notice for the injured Tyrod Taylor in Week 2, Herbert has hit the ground throwing, compiling at least 22 fantasy points in each of his first four starts and totaling 10 TDs with only three interceptions. His average of 26.8 fantasy points per game ranks seventh at the position — impressive for a rookie and even more impressive in a season of record offensive numbers across the league.

Staying power: 8. Herbert is surrounded by a strong supporting cast — especially when RB Austin Ekeler returns — but he’s even produced while targeting unknowns such as WRs Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson and has the makings of a surprise QB1 finisher.

4) WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Current position rank (fantasy points): 4 (71.7 in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 48

Most impressive achievement: After a concerning slow start with only six total targets and 7.0 fantasy points combined in his first two games, Jefferson has been nothing less than fantasy’s No. 1 wideout since Week 3, reeling in 23-of-30 targets for 467 yards, three TDs and 66.7 fantasy points.

Staying power: 6. Jefferson has definitely started on a boom-or-bust track, but he and fellow top-five fantasy WR Adam Thielen have combined to command 44.9 percent (75 of 167) of the Vikings’ passing game targets so far. Minnesota always prefers to lean on the ground game, but a brutal defense is likely going to force Kirk Cousins to air it out more than the Vikes would like.

3) WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Current position rank (fantasy points): 17 (56.6 in 5 games)

Positional ADP: 37

Most impressive achievement: Lamb has not only rapidly fit in with one of the league’s best offenses and passing attacks, he’s leading the way with 433 receiving yards and 56.6 fantasy points — tops among the team’s talented pass-catchers. And it’s his consistency that gives him the slight edge over Jefferson here as Lamb has had at least 10.9 fantasy points in every outing.

Staying power: 6. There’s some real and justifiable concern with starting QB Dak Prescott going down for the season in Week 5, but veteran Andy Dalton is among the league’s more capable backups. There’s also the narrative that the Cowboys will turn to the run more now with Dalton under center after ranking as the league’s second pass-heaviest offense (66.2 percent) through Week 5, but Dallas’ abominable defense (league-high 36 points surrendered per game entering Monday night) doesn’t figure to play along.

2) RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Current position rank (fantasy points): 8 (80.9 points in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 53

Most impressive achievement: Undrafted out of FCS Illinois State, Robinson has seized hold of the Jaguars’ starting RB gig and hasn’t let go. He has accounted for 85 of the Jags’ 91 RB rushing attempts and 362 of the team’s 379 RB rushing yards while catching 23 of 26 targets for 207 yards. Only two other players (Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry) through Sunday had more yards from scrimmage than Robinson’s 569.

Staying power: 8. Even though the Jags own the league’s lowest rushing-play percentage (32.3), when they do run, it’s with Robinson and he’s well on the way to becoming this season’s out-of-nowhere RB1 surprise.

1) WR Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers

Current position rank (fantasy points): 5 (71.6 in 5 games)

Positional ADP: 78

Most impressive achievement: Pittsburgh’s latest wideout sensation has quickly emerged as the best fantasy weapon on a stacked Steelers offense, thanks largely to his six TDs (two rushing), tied for second among league wide receivers. He leads the Steelers in receiving yards (335) with 141 more than JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has six more receptions.

Staying power: 5. Claypool is tied for only fourth on the team in targets (24) and that’s with fellow wideout Diontae Johnson (26 targets) missing nearly two full games with a back issue. Claypool also has been involved as a ball-carrier with six rushes for 21 yards and two TDs, but his overall video game numbers — 14.0 yards per target and six TDs on only 23 touches — are simply unsustainable and don’t be surprised if he falls back toward the WR pack in the Steel City.

Most disappointing fantasy rookies (to date)

5) WR Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles

Current position rank (total standard-scoring fantasy points): 118 (9.6 in 2 games)

Positional ADP: 53

Statistical shortfall: With pass-catchers Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Dallas Goedert battling injuries, the door was wide open for the speedy first-round selection to step in and make an immediate impact, but he’s fallen prey to the same Philly injury curse (torn thumb ligament) and has been limited to 100 early-season snaps, resulting in five catches for 96 yards. That’s deprived the Eagles and many of his fantasy owners of a much-needed weapon.

Chances to improve: 9. Reagor is due back after Philly’s Week 9 bye, and even if he’s slow to heal, misses that mark by a couple weeks and winds up playing only half a season with average WR4 production, it will be better than next to nothing.

4) RB Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills

Current position rank (fantasy points): 62 (13.4 in 3 games)

Positional ADP: 40

Statistical shortfall: We have another injured-addled pro debut so far here, as Moss entered Buffalo’s Week 6 Monday night game with only 20 touches on 67 snaps in two games due to a toe issue. He exited with 25 touches. Moss also had a track record of missed time and health issues in college at Utah, and so far, it’s looking like more of the same at the next level.

Chances to improve: 9. Buffalo lead Devin Singletary has been struggling, totaling only 46.5 fantasy points in the Bills’ first six games, so Moss has a legit shot at taking over Buffalo lead-back duties if he can stay on the field.

3) WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

Current position rank (fantasy points): 52 (32.6 in 5 games)

Positional ADP: 39

Statistical shortfall: The opportunity has been there for the taking in a Denver offense missing three of its top passing-game targets (TE Noah Fant and WRs Courtland Sutton and K.J. Hamler) for most of the season, but the first-round pick has failed to take full advantage, catching 17 of a team-most 33 targets for 266 yards and one TD so far. Dropped passes have been a problem in Jeudy’s inefficient 51.5 catch percentage.

Chances to improve: 8. Sutton is gone for the season and QB Drew Lock has only played two full games so far. The Broncos also have gone up against some tough secondaries (Steelers, Bucs and Patriots) so look for Jeudy’s efficiency and production to start trending in the right direction, even though his fantasy ceiling looks to be WR3 production.

2) RB J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

Current position rank (fantasy points): 40 (34.8 points in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 30

Statistical shortfall: If we had known this summer that the rushing numbers (attempts and yards) would be down for both QB Lamar Jackson and lead RB Mark Ingram this season and the Ravens would still be a top-two NFL rushing squad, Dobbins would’ve been a much hotter fantasy commodity. Instead, Dobbins is averaging only six touches and 38 total yards per contest, and following 14.2 fantasy points with two TDs in Week 1, he hasn’t cleared 6.1 points or found the end zone in five games since.

Chances to improve: 7. Dobbins is averaging 1.7 more yards per rush and 1.6 more yards per touch than either Ingram or fellow RB Gus Edwards and has caught 11 passes to a combined three for the other two backs, easily making him the team’s most efficient RB so far. That should earn the rookie more touches and snaps down the stretch, especially if Ingram’s Week 6 ankle injury proves to be anything serious.

1) RB Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

Current position rank (fantasy points): 75 (11.7 in 4 games)

Positional ADP: 25

Statistical shortfall: The second-round pick did miss Weeks 2 and 3 with a rib injury, but has seen only 27 touches in the Rams’ other four contests — including none Sunday night in Week 6 — for a total of 117 scoreless total yards. Fellow backs Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown, meanwhile, are averaging 13.2 and 11.2 touches per contest, making Akers the third wheel in the L.A. backfield.

Chances to improve: 5. Akers certainly has potential for bigger and better things in an above-average offense, but the other two backs appear to offer more explosion (Henderson) and sound veteran consistency (Brown), and the rookie really might need an injury to one of those two to approach any kind of usable touches.

Fantasy Football: Targets, Touches & TDs: Week 6

Tackling five backfields that create confusion in fantasy football and trying to make sense of them.

Despite the ongoing extreme makeovers with the NFL itinerary, we remain right on schedule here with your weekly serving of TT&T.

Running backs remain the most valuable point-for-point fantasy football commodities, and with that in mind this week, we’re tackling five of the league’s most baffling backfields – ones where a clear, startable fantasy back has yet to emerge.

From each of these five backfields, we’ll take a look at the key stats and metrics produced so far and use those as guideposts to try and forecast whatever fantasy value may emerge from each going forward.

Here goes, starting alphabetically with the …

Baltimore Ravens

Primary backs and stats

  • Mark Ingram: (5 games played) 45 rushes-205 yards-2 TDs; 5 targets-3 receptions-25 yards-0 TDs. 35.0 standard-scoring fantasy points/38.0 point-per-reception points
  • J.K. Dobbins: (5) 16-126-2; 10-9-73-0. 31.9/40.9
  • Gus Edwards: (5) 34-192-0; 3-0-0-0. 19.2/19.2

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

  • Ingram: 48-230-2 (0.73 standard scoring/0.79 PPR)
  • Dobbins: 25-199-2 (1.28/1.64)
  • Edwards: 34-192-0 (0.56/0.56)

Offensive snap shares

  • Dobbins: 106/300 (35.3 percent)
  • Ingram: 99/300 (33.0)
  • Edwards: 95/300 (31.7)

Red-zone stats

  • Ingram: 7-16-1 rushing; 2-1-4-0 receiving
  • Dobbins: 2-5-2; 0-0-0-0
  • Edwards: 1-2-0; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

Major asterisk here, of course, with quarterback Lamar Jackson ranking second on the team in rushing attempts (41) and pacing the squad with 238 rushing yards – and that’s even with Jackson’s average number of attempts down 3.5 carries per contest (11.7-8.2) from last season.

The drafting of Dobbins has played a major role in knocking Ingram’s per-game touch average down to 9.6 from 15.2 a year ago, and that – and an expected touchdown regression – has caused Ingram to fall from the RB1 ranks down to sub-flex territory as he currently ranks 34th at the position in total fantasy points (standard scoring) and 42nd in average fantasy points per contest.

Ingram has been the Ravens’ back to own simply due to the fact that he’s getting the most the carries on the league’s second-best rushing team (160.8 yards per game). But Dobbins is superior in yards-per-touch (8.0-4.8) and fantasy-points-per-touch averages. Additionally, his higher usage in the passing game portends bigger and better fantasy things as the season presses on. He’s a must-add if he was somehow dropped in your league.

Edwards still will be involved as well – primarily as a late-game closer – but Ingram and Dobbins are the Ravens’ backs to own in standard-size leagues.

Detroit Lions

Primary backs and stats

  • Adrian Peterson: (4 games played) 54 rushes-245 yards-1 TD; 6 targets-4 receptions-31 yards-0 TDs; 33.6 standard-scoring fantasy points/37.6 PPR points
  • D’Andre Swift: (4) 12-42-1; 16-13-124-1; 28.6/41.6
  • Kerryon Johnson: (4) 21-71-1; 3-2-17-0; 14.8/16.8

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

  • Peterson: 58-276-1 (0.58 standard scoring/0.65 PPR)
  • Swift: 25-166-2 (1.14/1.66)
  • Johnson: 23-88-1 (0.64/0.73)

Offensive snap shares

  • Peterson: 105/264 (39.8 percent)
  • Swift: 83/264 (31.4)
  • Johnson: 70/264 (26.5)

Red-zone stats

  • Peterson: 12-35-1 rushing; 0-0-0-0 receiving
  • Swift: 2-2-1; 3-2-16-1
  • Johnson: 5-19-1; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

The Sept. 7 signing of the 35-year-old Peterson changed the whole dynamic of the situation here as he has 10 more touches than the rookie Swift and the incumbent Johnson combined.

Given his superior rushing attempt and snap shares and red-zone work, an iron man known as Peterson has been Detroit’s most trustworthy fantasy back to date, but Swift’s sizable edge in the passing game isn’t to be ignored. The second-round pick quietly ranks 20th among all league running backs with 13 receptions and figures to become more and more involved as his adjustment to the pro game eases and his early-season health issues further fade away.

Johnson, thought be to be a rising fantasy star only a season ago, has become the odd man out.

Los Angeles Rams

Primary backs and stats

  • Darrell Henderson: (5 games played) 58 rushes-260 yards-3 TDs; 11 targets-7 receptions-92 yards-1 TD. 59.2 standard-scoring fantasy points/66.2 point-per-reception points
  • Malcolm Brown: (5) 53-213-2; 14-9-44-0. 37.7/46.7
  • Cam Akers: (3) 26-113-0; 1-1-4-0. 11.7/12.7

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

  • Henderson: 65-352-4 (0.91 standard scoring/1.02 PPR)
  • Brown: 62-257-2 (0.61/0.75)
  • Akers: 27-117-0 (0.43/0.47)

Offensive snap shares

  • Brown: 176/336 (52.4 percent)
  • Henderson: 119/336 (35.4)
  • Akers: 40/210 (19.0)

Red-zone stats

  • Henderson: 17-35-3 rushing; 3-2-18-1 receiving
  • Brown: 10-31-2; 3-1-(-2)-0
  • Akers: 2-5-0; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

There’s definitely some interest here as the Rams have logged the league’s second-most rushing attempts (169) this season and trail only the Browns as well in overall rushing-play percentage at 51.5.

Even though Brown owns a sizable snap edge, Henderson has out-touched Brown in three of the Rams’ last four games for a 62-41 edge during that span. Akers, meanwhile, got the start in Los Angeles’ opening two games before leaving early in Week 2 with a rib-cartilage injury that kept him out of action until Sunday.

As a rookie second-round pick, Akers is the team’s shiny new object, while Brown lends a steady, veteran presence, and Henderson has been the most productive and dynamic of the trio to date. Look for a Henderson/Akers split of the workload going forward with the former drawing the slight edge in touches.

New England Patriots

Primary backs and stats

  • Rex Burkhead: (4 games played) 30 rushes-128yards-2 TDs; 17 targets-12 receptions-101 yards-1 TD. 40.9 standard-scoring fantasy points/52.9 point-per-reception points
  • Sony Michel: (3) 26-173-1; 3-2-23-0. 25.6/27.6
  • James White: (2) 8-43-0; 11-10-68-0. 11.1/21.1
  • Damien Harris: (1) 17-100-0; 0-0-0-0. 10.0/10.0
  • J.J. Taylor: (3) 16-70-0; 2-1-4-0. 7.4/8.4

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

  • Burkhead: 42-229-3 (0.97 standard scoring/1.26 PPR)
  • Michel: 28-196-1 (0.91/0.99)
  • White: 18-111-0 (0.62/1.17)
  • Harris: 17-100-0 (0.59/0.59)
  • Taylor: 17-74-0 (0.44/0.49)

Offensive snap shares

  • Burkhead: 128/280 (45.7 percent)
  • White: 59/139 (42.4)
  • Harris: 23/75 (30.7)
  • Michel: 60/205 (29.3)
  • Taylor: 25/205 (12.2)

Red-zone stats

  • Burkhead: 8-36-2 rushing; 4-2-23-1 receiving
  • Michel: 5-18-1; 0-0-0-0
  • Taylor: 3-10-0; 1-0-0-0
  • White: 1-7-0; 1-1-(-4)-0
  • Harris: 1-5-0; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

The Pats’ backfield situation is the toughest enigma to crack – for a number of reasons.

First, there’s the sheer number of backs in the mix (five), and then there’s the Cam Newton factor, as the quarterback remains one of the league’s top red-zone rushing threats with 12 carries for 37 yards and four TDs in only three games so far. And, then, most significant of all, this is the Patriots we’re talking about, as the chameleon-like Bill Belichick and his staff change things up on a weekly basis to keep opposing defenses – not to mention fantasy general managers – off-balance.

With Michel on injured reserve, though, and the rookie Taylor seeing only a 12.2-percent snap share in the games he’s played, that whittles the usable fantasy contenders down to three.

White, who’s averaging five catches per game, remains a PPR-format flex factor while Harris – he of the preseason buzz before a finger injury knocked him out of the first three games – made the most recent favorable impression with a team season-high 17 rushes for an even 100 yards in his 2020 debut in Week 4. Burkhead is the jack-of-all trades who always figures to be active and involved to some degree, but we’ve more than likely already seen his best game this season as he accounted for a 65.8 percent (34.8) of his 52.9 PPR points in Week 3.

That leaves White (PPR) and Harris (still need to see more coming out of the Week 5 bye) as the Pats’ best RB fantasy bets.

New York Giants

Primary backs and stats

  • Devonta Freeman: (3 games played) 33 rushes-103 yards-1 TD; 7 targets-6 receptions-62 yards-0 TDs. 22.5 standard-scoring fantasy points/28.5 point-per-reception points
  • Dion Lewis: (5) 13-31-1; 16-9-55-0. 14.6/23.6
  • Wayne Gallman: (4) 15-76-0; 6-5-21-0. 9.4/14.4

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

  • Freeman: 39-165-1 (0.58 standard scoring/0.73 PPR)
  • Lewis: 22-86-1 (0.66/1.07)
  • Gallman: 20-97-0 (0.47; 0.72)

Offensive snap shares

  • Freeman: 89/188 (47.3 percent)
  • Lewis: 124/321 (38.6)
  • Gallman: 43/256 (17.0)

Red-zone stats

  • Freeman: 3-6-1 rushing; 1-1-(-2)-0 receiving
  • Lewis: 1-1-1; 2-1-4-0
  • Gallman: 1-1-0; 1-1-3-0

Outlook

We go from the toughest nut to crack (Patriots) among our five to the easiest, as Freeman is the main man here as long as he can avoid the health issues of recent seasons (18 combined games missed from 2017-19).

The last two weeks, Freeman has out-touched Lewis and Gallman combined by a 34-18 margin and has outgained them 155-88 with a 27.5-14.8 edge in PPR points.

The Giants, though, are saddled with one of the league’s worst offensive lines and overall offenses, keeping Freeman in flex-start territory most weeks instead of the RB2 ranks. 

Extra points

  • The Ravens’ aforementioned Jackson is off to a slow start, ranking 14th among quarterbacks with 113.2 fantasy points through action Sunday. Gardner Minshew (120.7), Ryan Fitzpatrick (120.3), Derek Carr (119.5) and Carson Wentz (113.6) are among the QBs with more points. Jackson still ranks second at the position with his 238 rushing yards on 41 attempts (tied for first), but he only has one rushing score so far. Jackson, though, is mainly falling short as a fantasy passer, ranking 24th (as of Sunday) with 949 passing yards and tying for ninth with nine TD tosses after leading the league with 36 a season ago.
  • Jets WR Jamison Crowder has played in only three of the team’s five games, but he’s had at least 10 targets, seven receptions and 104 receiving yards in each outing while snaring a pair of TD passes for a total of 67.5 PPR points. Crowder’s average of 22.5 PPR points per contest, though, trails only the Packers’ Davante Adams (24.1) among league wideouts.
  • Dalvin Cook, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill are the only players to score a TD in all five weeks so far this season.
  • Meanwhile, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones, Myles Gaskin, Austin Ekeler, Devin Singletary, Frank Gore, Amari Cooper and Robby Anderson were the only players with at least 60 touches or 35 receptions and one or fewer TDs through Sunday.
  • The Rams not only have a backfield fantasy conundrum but one at tight end, as well. Tyler Higbee had a monster Week 2 with five receptions for 54 yards and three TDs (28.4 PPR points), but he’s only caught 10-of-12 targets for 122 yards and no scores (22.2 points) in his other four contests combined. Gerald Everett, meanwhile, missed Week 2 but has out-produced Higbee in the other four games, catching 8-of-9 targets for 141 yards and no TDs while scoring on a 2-yard rushing TD (28.3 PPR points).

Fantasy Football Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 5

Reviewing data from several key fantasy options over the last month and assessing their future.

We’ve made it through a quarter of the NFL regular season, and we’re even further along than that, of course, in the fantasy campaign.

So what do to do about the disappointing players on your roster – the underperforming high draft picks who simply aren’t living up to their starter status four games into the season?

Some of these slow starters and underachievers may already have found their way to your bench – or even the waiver wire. But are they worth another starting shot, hanging on to, buying low in a trade or picking up a month into the season in hopes of a reversal of fortune?

To try to answer those very questions, we’re examining eight first-quarter fantasy disappointments this week – two from each of the four main lineup positions – and preaching either panic or patience. There have certainly been more than the usual share of key player injuries, but we’re not including those here, disregarding players who have missed a game or more due to health or pandemic postponement reasons.

Here goes, starting with …

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

Preseason positional ADP: 3rd
Current positional rank: 11th (through play Sunday) with 99.4 total fantasy points (Huddle performance scoring)

What’s gone wrong: It started in March when elite wide receiver/top target DeAndre Hopkins was dealt to the Arizona Cardinals. And while Watson’s current top trio of wideouts (Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb) is certainly talented, none of the three bring the consistency and dependability of Hopkins, who currently leads the league with 39 receptions on 46 targets.

Hopkins’ absence – and a brutal early-season schedule that’s led to a 0-4 start for the Texans and the firing of head coach/general manager Bill O’Brien – have been enough to knock almost three fantasy points off Watson’s per-game average of a season ago. And a stat resume that includes seven total touchdowns (one rushing) and one 300-yard passing game (exactly 300 Sunday) have dropped Watson down into basement QB1 territory in a year in which passing numbers and scoring are off to record starts.

Early-October approach: Patience

Unless you happened to snare a Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers later in your draft, Watson likely is going to be your best option going forward. He’s a proven dual-threat performer who will be forced to throw often to keep up with a sub-par defense, and Watson should only gain more rapport with his new offensive weapons (Cooks, Cobb and running back David Johnson) as the schedule eases up a bit.

That said, a third straight top-five fantasy finish likely is out of reach, but Watson isn’t going to lose you many fantasy matchups, either, as a steady low-to-mid-level QB1.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Preseason positional ADP: 9th
Current positional rank: 19th (82.1 points)

What’s gone wrong: Much like Watson, Brees has been forced to go without an elite No. 1 wide receiver in the injured Michael Thomas, but unlike the Texans’ QB, Brees should be getting his top target back any week now after Thomas has missed the last three games.

Thomas’ absence has contributed significantly to Brees averaging 251.5 yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt – both down from recent seasons – as he’s struggled to consistently complete passes downfield and has frequently relied on RB Alvin Kamara’s ridiculous yards-after-catch total (308) to help pad those numbers.

Early-October approach: Panic

Brees’ numbers will get a sizable bump when Thomas returns and returns to form, but if you’re forced to rely on the 41-year-old Brees as your top quarterback in a two-QB format or a 12-team or smaller league, you’re still going to find yourself at a QB disadvantage most weeks.

If that is indeed the case, and are able to sell another owner in your league on Brees’ far-fetched elite potential once Thomas is back, definitely deal him as part of a package for a more productive QB with a higher floor.

Running back

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals

Preseason positional ADP: 14th
Current positional rank: 32nd (32.0 fantasy points, standard scoring)

What’s gone wrong: It’s simply been a lack of production and efficiency as Drake has accounted for 72 of the team’s 101 running back touches but has turned those into only 274 yards (3.8 per touch) and one TD. He’s also experienced a big drop-off as a receiver, averaging 3.6 fewer targets (4.9-1.3) and 2.6 fewer receptions (3.6-1.0) per game than he did in 2019.

Drake had a juicy matchup Sunday against a struggling Panthers defense, but finished with a season-low 35 yards on 13 carries and no receptions before leaving early with a chest injury (revealed on Monday as having the wind knocked out of him).

Early-October approach: Panic

There was a strong summer suspicion that Drake might’ve been overvalued based on his brilliant but small sample (814 total yards and eight TDs in eight games) in the second half of 2019, and that’s looking very much like it could be the case with the evidence so far.

Backup Chase Edmonds has averaged more yards per touch (4.6-3.8), has been much more involved in the passing game (12 more targets, eight more receptions) and has doubled up Drake’s TD production on 43 fewer touches overall. Don’t be surprised if Edmonds sees his share percentage increase going forward.

Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens

Preseason positional ADP: 25th
Current positional rank: 36th (29.3 points)

What’s gone wrong: Ingram is pacing the Ravens’ running backs in carries (34), total touches (37) and yards from scrimmage (173) so far, but fellow backs Gus Edwards (27-167 rushing) and J.K. Dobbins (15-92-2 TDs rushing) have been much more involved than expected so far.

And, of course, QB Lamar Jackson is as involved as ever as a ball-carrier, leading the team in attempts (39) and yards (235). It’s all helped drop Ingram’s usage from 15.2 touches per game last year to 9.3 so this season, and he’s on pace to finish eight TDs after finishing fourth in the league with 15 scores a season ago.

Early-October approach: Patience

If you overdrafted Ingram hoping for a repeat of his top-10 fantasy running back finish of a season ago, that’s a gamble that isn’t likely to pay off.

But if you got him around his low-end RB2, flex-play ADP, then you’re getting what you paid for. In most any case, you’re not going to bail on the lead back on one of the league’s top rushing attacks – even if his numbers seem certain to fall short of last season’s. Ingram is now a TD-needy flex option, so adjust your expectations accordingly.

Wide receiver

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers

Preseason positional ADP: 13th
Current positional rank: 39th (28.8 points, standard scoring)

What’s gone wrong: Moore is still getting ample targets (32 to rank 12th overall among league wideouts), but he’s only reeled in 18 so far for 288 yards and no TDs.

Meanwhile, newcomer Robby Anderson has surprisingly been Carolina’s best receiver so far and much more efficient and productive than Moore, catching 28-of-34 targets for 377 yards and a TD.

Early-October approach: Mild panic

Carolina running backs are still going to be heavily involved in the passing game, having drawn a combined 35 targets so far, and that’s likely only going to increase once Christian McCaffrey returns from his high-ankle sprain.

And unless Anderson’s target share and production fall off markedly, Moore doesn’t look like he’ll be the high-end WR2 he was drafted to be. His fantasy owners are likely going to have to settle for flex production or deal him to another league GM who will play close to a WR2 trade price in believing a Moore turnaround is right around the corner.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

Preseason positional ADP: 27th
Current positional rank: 88th (11.9 points)

What’s gone wrong: What hasn’t?

Of the 18 players league-wide who had amassed 30 or more targets through Sunday, only one (Green) had a catch percentage lower than 53.3 percent and that was Green at 42.4, bringing in only 14 of 33 targets to date. And even when new QB Joe Burrow and Green have managed to connect, the veteran receiver’s 14 receptions have produced only 119 yards (8.5 per catch) and no TDs.

Prior to Week 1, the 32-year-old Green hadn’t played in a full regular season game since October of 2018, and the rust and/or skills decline is most definitely showing so far.

Early-October approach: All-out panic

Tyler Boyd (28-320-1) and rookie Tee Higgins (12-152-2) have easily been Cincy’s top wide receivers as they’ve caught a combined 71.4 percent of their targets, and that figures to continue.

Meanwhile, there’s nowhere for Green’s efficiency to go but up, but most fantasy GMs can’t afford to wait with higher-upside wideout options available. Green is certainly droppable outside of deep leagues.

Tight end

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Preseason positional ADP: 4th
Current positional rank: 18th (19.9 points, standard scoring)

What’s gone wrong: Cluster offensive line and wide receiver injuries have played a major role in knocking QB Carson Wentz and the Philly passing game out of whack, and Wentz’s leading target hasn’t been immune.

Only Darren Waller and Evan Engram have drawn more targets among tight ends so far, and Ertz also is tied for third at the position in receptions with 19. But he ranks 15th in yards (139) as he’s averaging a career-low 7.3 yards per catch and has only caught one scoring pass so far after averaging 6.7 over the last three seasons.

Early-October approach: Complete patience

The targets are the key number for Ertz, and the efficiency figures to pick up when some of the team’s wide receivers – and even fellow tight end Dallas Goedert – get healthier and draw some of the defensive attention away from Ertz.

Evan Engram, New York Giants

Preseason positional ADP: 6th
Current positional rank: 29th (13.1 points)

What’s gone wrong: Much like Ertz, the usage/targets (30) are there, but the efficiency is most definitely not. Engram ranks 18th among tight ends with 131 yards (career-low 7.7 yards per reception) and is still looking for his first TD reception.

That’s a glaring issue with the team in general as the Giants have a league-low two TD passes (and three offensive TDs overall) – both Daniel Jones-to-WR Darius Slayton scoring connections in Week 1.

Early-October approach: Patience

Proportionally in fantasy scoring, touchdowns mean more to tight ends than any other position, and there is some definite positive regression headed the Giants’ (and Engram’s) way this season.

If you’ve needed to roster another tight end to get through Engram’s slow start, that’s perfectly understandable, but at the same time, it’s unwise to cast aside an average of 7.5 targets per game at a position of continued fantasy scarcity.

Extra Points

  • Chargers rookie QB Justin Herbert ranks 10th at the position with an average of 25.7 fantasy points per game and has had at least 22 in all three starts this season. He has completed 72 percent of his throws for 931 yards (8.7 per attempts), five TDs and three interceptions while rushing for 47 yards and another score on the ground. Still, according to head coach Anthony Lynn, Tyrod Taylor will be reinstated as the team’s starting QB as soon as he’s healthy. Stay tuned …
  • Coming off back-to-back games in which he amassed 241 total yards and two TDs on 35 touches, Rams RB Darrell Henderson had only 38 yards on nine touches in Sunday in a 17-9 win over the Giants. Henderson was outtouched (14-9) and outsnapped (35-22) by Malcolm Brown, who finished with 56 total yards – matching his total from the previous two weeks. Confusing? Yes. And also consider that rookie second-round pick Cam Akers could be back soon after missing the last two games with a rib injury.
  • Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw for a career-high 502 yards on 41-of-58 passing in Sunday’s 49-38 loss to the Browns, but wide receiver Michael Gallup caught only two passes on five targets for 29 scoreless yards. Gallup has caught 13-of-24 targets for 275 yards and a TD on the season good for 46.5 PPR points, but 25.8 of those points (55.5 percent) came in one game (Week 3 at Seattle) and he ranks fifth on the team in both targets and receptions.
  • Gallup is certainly behind TE teammate Dalton Schultz, who ranks third at the position with 33.9 fantasy points, catching 18-of-28 targets for 219 yards and two TDs. Schultz has essentially done it all in the last three games, too, as he caught only one of four targets for 11 yards in the season opener after Blake Jarwin went down with a season-ending ACL tear.
  • Finally, how good is 49ers TE George Kittle? After missing the previous two games with a hyperextended knee, Kittle caught all 15 of his targets Sunday night for 183 yards and a TD. So, in just two games, Kittle ranked sixth among all tight ends in PPR fantasy points (49.4) through Sunday and has reeled in 19-of-20 targets for 227 yards and a TD.

2020 Schedule Swings: Receiving

Comparing schedule strength for fantasy football receivers – 2020 vs. 2019

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2019.

Below shows the point differential (Swing Pts) between their schedule strength last year, and what they will face this season. Also shown are the calculated schedule strength rankings from 2019 and what 2020 projects to be (1 is best, 32 is worst).

Receivers are the most sensitive to individual matchups. A good cover corner can silence any wideout and there are many other considerations that impact receiver production beyond team schedule strength. Only the most extreme swings are worth noting, and even then – this sort of analysis is always least accurate applied to individual receivers.

Best Swings

Allen Robinson/Anthony Miller (CHI) – The Bears already owned the No. 9 receiving schedule last year, so leaping to No. 1 isn’t as advantageous of a change as it might seem. Robinson is already secure as the No. 1 receiver but this great schedule could help Miller take the next step up from his very average production of 2019. There is a quarterback controversy (or at least should be) in Chicago, and that may help even further.

Courtland Sutton/Jerry Jeudy (DEN) – Drew Lock struggled to find his wideouts in the five games that he started as a rookie but they were out in patterns against the No. 32 receiving schedule. Lock is a bit more experienced and Sutton already impressed last year with his 1,000-yard season. The rookie Jeudy projects to be a difference-maker, but this great schedule may not be enough to make up for starting out in the NFL during the COVID-19 schedule.

Henry Ruggs/Tyrell Williams (LVR) – This is a case of a team that had one of the worst schedules for receiving in 2019, going to just average for this season. There’s plenty of other factors to contend with like a new stadium, a new rookie wideout, and the pandemic fallout impacting any changes more than usual. The Raiders do get a nice bump in schedule strength but it’s still slightly below average.

Terry McLaurin/Steve Sims (WAS) – Rising to the No. 3 receiving schedule from the No. 18 helps, but the jury is still out on quarterback Dwayne Haskins. Throw in all-new coaches, a new team mascot, and a scandal or two and this won’t be enough to counteract everything else that is going on in Washington.

T.Y. Hilton/Michael Pittman (IND) – This is worth noting. The Colts flopped badly in 2019 without Andrew Luck and the No. 22 receiving schedule did them no favors as well. But Philip Rivers is sure to upgrade the quarterback role and Hilton went for 1,270 yards in 2018. Facing the No. 6 receiving schedule with a veteran quarterback will help get Holton back over 1,000 yards. Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell will also benefit.

Davante Adams/Allen Lazard (GB) – The second best receiver for the Packers is a coin flip and didn’t amount to more than 35 catches for 477 yards last year. But Davante Adams recorded 83 catches in just 12 games and the Packers jump up from the No. 21 to the No. 7 receiving schedule this year. Adams is already money so the benefit just makes him an even safer pick as one of the first wideouts taken in any fantasy league draft.

Worst Swings

Mike Evans/Chris Godwin (TB) – Jameis Winston may have completed more interceptions than anyone else last year, but both Evans and Godwin turned in big years in the process. Now Tom Brady will be the pitcher which could impact the deep ball (added bonus, ball placement closer to the wideout than the cornerback). The schedule projects to be average which could cool down the passing game after the No. 1 easiest receiver schedule in 2019. But it is the same offense with two of the top wideouts in the game on either side.

Keenan Allen/Mike Williams (LAC) – This could be troubling. The Bolts receivers went against the No. 5 schedule but fall to the No. 29 in a year where either retread Tyrod Taylor or the rookie Justin Herbert (or both) will start. Both have fallen in fantasy drafts but maybe not far enough.

A.J. Brown/Corey Davis (TEN) – Ryan Tannehill sent Marcus Mariota to the bench last year and A.J. Brown blew up as a rookie. Falling to the No. 31 receiving schedule from the No. 11 won’t help. And the Titans only ranked No. 30 in the NFL with only 171 completions to their wideouts. Brown is safe enough to at least match his fine debut but the schedule and lack of passes will likely prevent any other receivers here from offering fantasy value.

Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley (ATL) – The Falcons had a big passing year in 2019 and Julio Jones turned in a career-best year as the No. 2 best fantasy wideout.  That was facing the No. 2 receiving schedule and they drop to No. 16 for an average strength. Jones and Ridley already combined for 162 catches last year while missing a few games. They remain safe fantasy plays but no other receivers are likely to stand out.

DJ Chark/Dede Westbrook (JAC) – Chark had a break-out season when he gained 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns last year. Dede Westbrook ended with 66 catches for 660 yards. They tumble from the No. 7 to the No. 23 receiving schedule but Gardner Minshew will have NFL-experience for this season. The schedule is not a friend, but it shouldn’t be a major factor in their fantasy fortunes.

Michael Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (NO) – Falling from the No. 3 to the No. 14 receiving strength of schedule isn’t ideal, but Thomas caught 149 passes last year – 45 more than any other wideout. The schedule is still average at worst but the Saints return with nearly the exact same team intact in a year where any changes will be penalized. Emmanuel Sanders is the only question here but he’ll never have to worry with double coverage anyway.