The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2019.

Below shows the point differential (Swing Pts) between their schedule strength last year, and what they will face this season. Also shown are the calculated schedule strength rankings from 2019 and what 2020 projects to be (1 is best, 32 is worst).

Receivers are the most sensitive to individual matchups. A good cover corner can silence any wideout and there are many other considerations that impact receiver production beyond team schedule strength. Only the most extreme swings are worth noting, and even then – this sort of analysis is always least accurate applied to individual receivers.

Best Swings

Allen Robinson/Anthony Miller (CHI) – The Bears already owned the No. 9 receiving schedule last year, so leaping to No. 1 isn’t as advantageous of a change as it might seem. Robinson is already secure as the No. 1 receiver but this great schedule could help Miller take the next step up from his very average production of 2019. There is a quarterback controversy (or at least should be) in Chicago, and that may help even further.

Courtland Sutton/Jerry Jeudy (DEN) – Drew Lock struggled to find his wideouts in the five games that he started as a rookie but they were out in patterns against the No. 32 receiving schedule. Lock is a bit more experienced and Sutton already impressed last year with his 1,000-yard season. The rookie Jeudy projects to be a difference-maker, but this great schedule may not be enough to make up for starting out in the NFL during the COVID-19 schedule.

Henry Ruggs/Tyrell Williams (LVR) – This is a case of a team that had one of the worst schedules for receiving in 2019, going to just average for this season. There’s plenty of other factors to contend with like a new stadium, a new rookie wideout, and the pandemic fallout impacting any changes more than usual. The Raiders do get a nice bump in schedule strength but it’s still slightly below average.

Terry McLaurin/Steve Sims (WAS) – Rising to the No. 3 receiving schedule from the No. 18 helps, but the jury is still out on quarterback Dwayne Haskins. Throw in all-new coaches, a new team mascot, and a scandal or two and this won’t be enough to counteract everything else that is going on in Washington.

T.Y. Hilton/Michael Pittman (IND) – This is worth noting. The Colts flopped badly in 2019 without Andrew Luck and the No. 22 receiving schedule did them no favors as well. But Philip Rivers is sure to upgrade the quarterback role and Hilton went for 1,270 yards in 2018. Facing the No. 6 receiving schedule with a veteran quarterback will help get Holton back over 1,000 yards. Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell will also benefit.

Davante Adams/Allen Lazard (GB) – The second best receiver for the Packers is a coin flip and didn’t amount to more than 35 catches for 477 yards last year. But Davante Adams recorded 83 catches in just 12 games and the Packers jump up from the No. 21 to the No. 7 receiving schedule this year. Adams is already money so the benefit just makes him an even safer pick as one of the first wideouts taken in any fantasy league draft.

Worst Swings

Mike Evans/Chris Godwin (TB) – Jameis Winston may have completed more interceptions than anyone else last year, but both Evans and Godwin turned in big years in the process. Now Tom Brady will be the pitcher which could impact the deep ball (added bonus, ball placement closer to the wideout than the cornerback). The schedule projects to be average which could cool down the passing game after the No. 1 easiest receiver schedule in 2019. But it is the same offense with two of the top wideouts in the game on either side.

Keenan Allen/Mike Williams (LAC) – This could be troubling. The Bolts receivers went against the No. 5 schedule but fall to the No. 29 in a year where either retread Tyrod Taylor or the rookie Justin Herbert (or both) will start. Both have fallen in fantasy drafts but maybe not far enough.

A.J. Brown/Corey Davis (TEN) – Ryan Tannehill sent Marcus Mariota to the bench last year and A.J. Brown blew up as a rookie. Falling to the No. 31 receiving schedule from the No. 11 won’t help. And the Titans only ranked No. 30 in the NFL with only 171 completions to their wideouts. Brown is safe enough to at least match his fine debut but the schedule and lack of passes will likely prevent any other receivers here from offering fantasy value.

Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley (ATL) – The Falcons had a big passing year in 2019 and Julio Jones turned in a career-best year as the No. 2 best fantasy wideout.  That was facing the No. 2 receiving schedule and they drop to No. 16 for an average strength. Jones and Ridley already combined for 162 catches last year while missing a few games. They remain safe fantasy plays but no other receivers are likely to stand out.

DJ Chark/Dede Westbrook (JAC) – Chark had a break-out season when he gained 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns last year. Dede Westbrook ended with 66 catches for 660 yards. They tumble from the No. 7 to the No. 23 receiving schedule but Gardner Minshew will have NFL-experience for this season. The schedule is not a friend, but it shouldn’t be a major factor in their fantasy fortunes.

Michael Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (NO) – Falling from the No. 3 to the No. 14 receiving strength of schedule isn’t ideal, but Thomas caught 149 passes last year – 45 more than any other wideout. The schedule is still average at worst but the Saints return with nearly the exact same team intact in a year where any changes will be penalized. Emmanuel Sanders is the only question here but he’ll never have to worry with double coverage anyway.