Tag: Expected Points Added

5 biggest plays of Cowboys much needed, 44-21 win over Rams

The Cowboys managed to pick up a much needed win against the Rams. Here are the biggest plays of the game with advanced stats via nflscrapR.

It was a much needed victory on Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys emerged with a 44-21 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Prior to the start of the game, the Philadelphia Eagles briefly stood in first place in the NFC East after their narrow, 37-27 win against the Washington Redskins. This made the situation all the more dire for the Cowboys, who had been on a three-game losing skid.

Dallas rose to the occasion, retaking their lead in the division and returning to .500 with a record of 7-7. In a contest that was not particularly close, here are the biggest plays of the game using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) models from nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position.

The Plays

No. 1 Dak Prescott pass deep middle to Amari Cooper for 19 yards

EPA: 3.1. DAL WP Shift: 50% to 59%

The Cowboys’ first big play of the game came on their second possession. Facing a third-and-10 situation, the Cowboys were able to convert thanks to a well placed pass from Prescott to Cooper for a 19-yard gain. On the play the Rams were in zone coverage, with cornerback Jalen Ramsey lined up on Cooper. Ramsey might have been expecting help on the play, as Cooper was able to find the void in the middle of the defense for a huge gain.

No. 2 Prescott pass short right to Jason Witten for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 3.7. DAL WP Shift: 58% to 71%

Following Cooper’s big catch the Cowboys’ second drive would end with a 19-yard touchdown from Prescott to Witten. The play featured Witten matched up against safety Marqui Christian. Witten was able to separate from the defender on a simple out route.

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His touchdown came on an impressive one-handed catch, putting the Cowboys up 7-0 near the end of the first quarter.

No. 3 Prescott pass deep left to Tavon Austin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 5.2. DAL WP Shift: 53% to 71%

The Rams picked up a touchdown on a short 2-yard pass from Jared Goff to Todd Gurley at the start of the second quarter. It wasn’t long before the Cowboys would regain the lead. On their ensuing drive it only took three plays for them to score on the most explosive play of the game, a 59-yard touchdown pass from Prescott to Austin.

Austin ran a crossing route down the middle of the field, but two Rams defenders ran into each other, both being essentially knocked out of the play. It explains why this play is the most “open” deep completion of the season according to Next Gen Stats.

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No. 4 Johnny Hekker punts 67 yards to DAL 3-yard line

EPA: 2.0. DAL WP Shift: 78% to 69%

It is odd to see how one of the biggest plays of the game for the Rams is a punt, but that is exactly the case. Back at their own 30-yard line, Hekker unloaded a lengthy punt that was downed at the Cowboys’ 3-yard line. From where the Cowboys started their next drive the Expected Points from this part of the field was minus-0.8, meaning from this position, the opposing team was in better scoring position.

No. 5 Goff pass short middle intended for Robert Woods, INTERCEPTED by Sean Lee

EPA: -4.6. DAL WP Shift: 88% to 94%

After the huge punt from Hekker the Cowboys moved the ball down the length of the field. The drive spanned 14 plays, 97 yards gained and six first downs in total. It would end with a 1-yard rushing touchdown from Ezekiel Elliott giving the Cowboys a 21-7 lead with the half drawing to a close.

When the Rams received the ball late in the second quarter their WP stood at a meager 13%. In order to have a chance, they needed to come away with some points on their next drive. However, any hope of a possible comeback would be short lived.

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On this play the Cowboys were in zone coverage, Lee was responsible for the middle zone. After the snap Goff appeared to be targeting Woods on a in-breaking route. Lee picked up on this and was able to jump the route for what would be a 25-yard interception return.

The Cowboys started their next drive with excellent field position at the Rams’ 9-yard line. After a 3-yard rushing touchdown from Elliott, the score was 28-7 to end the half. The Rams’ WP bottomed at 3% and the game was never competitive from this point on.

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Play-action chief among Rams key tendencies Cowboys must survive

The Rams have specialized in play-action passing under head coach Sean McVay. The Cowboys will need to adapt in their Week 15 matchup.

The Dallas Cowboys enter their Week 15 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams on a three-game losing streak. The Rams however are on a streak of their own, winning two straight and coming off a 28-12 blowout victory against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14. The Cowboys currently lead the NFC East with a record of 6-7, while the Rams are fighting for a wildcard birth in the NFC West at 8-5. As it stands, both teams are riding a drastically different set of circumstances regarding playoff scenarios.

When looking at the Rams in 2019, it is easy to dismissIss their accomplishments at this point in the season. One year removed from a Super Bowl appearance, many analysts pegged them as a perennial championship contender. It is fair to say they have underachieved but nonetheless, they are still a formidable opponent and as the Cowboys will find out on Sunday, they certainly have a preference when it comes to play calling.

Play-action passing

The Rams are an interesting team to study. Simply put, their entire offense runs on the core principle of setting up an effective play-action passing attack. Head coach Sean McVay has built his team around this concept and after diving into some key stats and play tendencies this becomes even more apparent. First things first though, a look at the Rams’ favorite personnel package on offense.

In the modern NFL, most teams have favored 11-personnel, which features three wide receivers on the field. The Rams are no exception, opting to use the package on 418 of their plays in 2019. According to charting from Sports Info Solutions, this accounts for 83 percent of the Rams’ totals plays this season; one of the highest rates in the league. With this in mind, it is clear to see how the Rams present themselves to opponents. But while personnel usage isn’t a mystery, the real question is, how do they approach their play-action game? One of the answers could be in their play-calling tendencies.

From an under-center look the Rams have passed the ball 176 times. But out of 476 under-center playcalls, their preference has been to run the ball (300 plays). In 2019, the Rams have rushed from under center 63 percent of the time. In this aspect the Rams have rushed at one of the highest rates, but across the league, rushing from under center is heavily favored.

Overall, the Rams have been one of the best teams at utilizing play-action in the past. In McVay’s first year as coach the Rams ranked No. 2 in play-action usage (29 percent) and averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt via Football Outsiders. Those numbers took a jump in the following season, with the team ranking No. 1 in usage (36 percent) and No. 2 in yards per attempt at 9.4.

In 2019, the Rams’ play-action output has fallen off a bit. Heading into Week 15, they have averaged 7.8 yards on play-action passes at a rate of 27 percent. Even so, play-action still remains a crucial aspect of their game.

To recap, here is a quick review of the Rams’ offensive tendencies,

  • Favor 11-personnel (83 percent of total plays)
  • Rush 63 percent of the time from under center
  • No. 2 in pass attempts from under center (176)
  • No. 9 in play-action pass rate (average 7.8 yards)

What stands out the most from this is the rush rate from under center. Conventional wisdom would suggest the Rams rush at a high rate to make play-action passing more effective. From an analytical point of view, the data suggests this is simply not true. Some studies show play-action passes work no matter how well a team runs the football.

This chart expresses a similar notion in regards to passing from under center and rushing volume. Teams that ran more from under center did not see a boost in passing efficiency. Efficiency here is defined as Expected Points Added per pass with data from nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position. If this metric serves well, then the Rams are not seeing a return on their passing investments by choosing to rush at a higher rate.

The Rams try to show the same types of offensive looks to keep opposing defenses guessing. By dressing plays to look exactly the same from an execution standpoint, in essence, it could be enough to fool unsuspecting defenses. The Cowboys’ defense has proven to be unreliable as of late, but at the very least they should be prepared for what the Rams’ offense is capable of from under center.

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Good, Bad, Ugly: How Brett Maher’s ineptitude submarined Cowboys yet again

A breakdown of the good, bad and mostly the ugly from the Dallas Cowboys’ crushing 31-24 loss at the hands of the Chicago Bears on Thursday.

The Dallas Cowboys’ crushing 31-24 loss to the Chicago Bears on Thursday night was a signature game. The Cowboys have gone through various ups and downs during the 2019 season, but they are now riding a three-game losing streak at the hands of the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and now the Bears. Technically all is not lost as the Cowboys still hold first place in the woeful NFC East, despite their middling record of 6-7.

It has been an unfortunate turn of events for the Cowboys. The expectations of head coach Jason Garrett leading a star-studded roster into a Super Bowl run now seems like a pipe dream as the team again looked outmatched in every aspect. It was a bad scene and at times it looked liked many players were on the field reluctantly. Here is a breakdown of the good, the bad and mostly the ugly from Thursday’s primetime defeat.

The Good: The Opening Drive

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The Cowboys looked like a dominant football team to start the game. Their opening drive was impressive as they gained 75 yards on 17 plays. It elapsed 8:57 of game time and the end result was a rushing touchdown from Ezekiel Elliott for an early 7-0 lead. It was the longest drive of the 2019 season and by the time the Bears got the ball on their first possession there was only 6:03 left in the first quarter.

The Cowboys effortlessly moved the ball at will, and if the opening drive was to be an indication, Cowboys Nation was sure in for a treat on Thursday night. As it would eventually turn out, that wasn’t the case. In truth, there is not many positives to gleam from the loss. Playoff hopes and scenarios aside, it seems like the product on the football field has not matched the hype.

The Bad: Brett Maher

Cowboys’ owner and de facto general manager Jerry Jones has already voiced his opinions about Garrett and the state of his football team. At this point, it is safe to say the entire coaching staff will be allowed to finish up the season uninterrupted with the team’s current playoff positioning. With that fans can likely, sadly expect Garrett’s continued dependency on kicker Brett Maher in crucial situations.

In fairness to him, he has made some long kicks in his two-year tenure. But a couple 60-plus-yard field goals do not make up for the plethora of misses that have plagued the team throughout the season.

For the second-straight week, Maher’s misses had a direct impact on Dallas’ late-game decisions, keeping them more than one-possession down late in the contest when they were finally able to put points on the board. The morale erosion when the offense makes headway only to come away not just empty handed, but gifting the opponent prime field position resonates throughout the sideline for a team barely hanging on to belief they can play a complete game.

To make matters worse in this contest, after Dallas was able to shrink the lead to 24-14 with a touchdown, Maher’s kickoff dribbled out of bounds, starting the Bears off at their 40-yard line.

The Bears went on to score in four more plays, their final points of the game and the final margin of victory; set up by the short field.

The conservative nature of Garrett and the inaccuracy of Maher has been the perfect disaster for a Cowboys team struggling to win in close games. But with three games left in the season the misses will continue to be a problem. Much like their current coaching situation, ownership seems adamant to stick with Maher for the remainder of the season in spite of the mediocrity. The Cowboys’ season in a nutshell.

The Ugly: The Cowboys’ Defense

AP Photo/Morry Gash

It was another poor outing for a porous Cowboys defense. They allowed the Bears, led by quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to score 31 points. In addition, the defense had trouble tackling all night, which led to some bonus yards after the catch opportunities for the Bears’ offense.

To put things into perspective, the Cowboys’ defense allowed Trubisky, who is an average QB at best, to pick them apart with surgical precision. To gauge Trubisky’s season from an analytical standpoint, ESPN’s Total QBR is a good measuring stick. According to their metric, Trubisky currently ranks No. 27 in the league with a a QBR of 43.0 for the season. A Pro-Bowl caliber player is rated with a QBR of 75. Against the Cowboys Trubisky produced a QBR of 80.6.

Another was to measure Trubisky and the rest of the Bears’ offensive efficiency is through the use of Expected Points Added (EPA). The nflscrapR package provides this data, with EPA measuring the value of a play given down, distance to first downs and field position.

This chart illustrates the Bears’ offensive efficiency, or lack thereof, over the course of the season. For the most part, the Bears have struggled to produce on the offensive end of the spectrum. Their EPA/play was usually well below zero, which means that the majority of their plays were unsuccessful.

Against the Cowboys in Week 14, they saw one of their biggest offensive breakouts of the season. The Cowboys’ defense surrendered 0.36 EPA per pass play, which is the Bears’ greatest mark of 2019.

Overall, this was a daunting loss for the Cowboys who were the road favorites against a Bears team led by Trubisky. There was hope the Cowboys would bounce back in Week 14 after their stunning defeat by the Bills on Thanksgiving. The team had a chance to prove they were a resilient bunch, able to withstand a string of losses. Now, after a three game losing streak and a record of 6-7, this team is treading the same old ground to end the 2019 season.

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Beasley’s Revenge: Former Cowboys WR stars in biggest impact plays of Week 13

A look at the Cowboys’ 26-15 loss at home against the Bills, through the lens of EPA and Win Probability metrics from nflscrapR.

The Dallas Cowboys 26-15 loss against the Buffalo Bills was not the worst Thanksgiving defeat in NFL history. That belongs to the Detroit Lions, who lost 47-10 against the Tennessee Titans in 2008. However, the Cowboys’ loss on Thursday seems surreal for a team that seemingly has all the tools be one of the best in the league. The Bills played a sound football game but they benefited from some careless turnovers from the Cowboys. On top of that, head coach Jason Garrett’s unwavering trust in kicker Brett Maher has continued to hurt the team.

It was a stunning loss for the Cowboys. After a score on their opening drive their offense was non-existent. On defense they had no answers for the dynamic duo of quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Cole Beasley. When looking at the biggest plays in the game, this couldn’t be more apparent.

Here is a look using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) models from nflscrapR. EPA measure the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position.

No. 1 Dak Prescott pass short right to Jason Witten for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.1                DAL WP Shift: 64% -> 71%

The game started out well for the Cowboys. On their opening possession they drove the ball downfield picking up 62 scrimmage yards and an additional 13 yards on penalties. The drive elapsed nine plays, but the team managed to pick up six first downs. The end result was a touchdown from quarterback Dak Prescott to Jason Witten on a well executed play-action pass.

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The score gave the Cowboys the early lead at 7-0, but it would be the last time they scored while the game remained competitive. Things only got worse from here.

No. 2 Josh Allen pass deep right to Cole Beasley for 29 yards

EPA: 4.2                DAL WP Shift: 81% -> 69%

After a successful special teams play from the Cowboys, the Bills were pinned back in their own territory with abysmal field position. They began the drive at their own 2-yard line. In spite of the circumstances, the Bills made the most of the situation. Their biggest play of the drive came on an improbable pass from Allen to Beasley.

Allen was able to generate one of the biggest plays of the game thanks to some allusive movement in the pocket to avoid DeMarcus Lawrence off the edge. He delivered an accurate pass to Beasley and the play garnered 29 yards in total.

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The Bills were ultimately forced into punting the ball on the drive, but the play was a sign of things to come.

No. 3 Allen pass short right to Beasley for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.9                DAL WP Shift: 60% -> 53%

The Bills found the end zone on their third possession. They orchestrated their biggest drive of the game, gaining 85 yards and five first downs on nine plays. The drive was capped with a 25-yard touchdown from Allen to Beasley. It was a seamless play for the Bills as Beasley found the void in the Cowboys’ soft zone defense with relative ease.

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No. 4 Prescott pass short left intended for Tony Pollard, INTERCEPTED

EPA: -4.9              DAL WP Shift: 55% -> 40%

Beginning their fourth drive of the game, the Cowboys’ WP odds stood at 53%. The game was tied late in the second quarter and both teams managed to avoid some costly mistakes to this point. However, it was the Cowboys that would commit the first turnover of the game. The play was a designed screen pass with Pollard being the intended target.

The pass might have reached Pollard, but Prescott was backpedaling and got hit by linebacker Matt Milano at the time of his release.  Following the interception, the Cowboys’ WP was 40%.

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No. 5 Prescott sacked for a 9-yard loss, FUMBLE

EPA: -5.2              DAL WP Shift: 58% -> 43%

After turning the ball over the Cowboys’ defense was able to absorb the blow. They held the Bills to minus-3 yards on the ensuing drive. The Bills settled for a 50-yard field goal attempt from kicker Steven Hauschka, but it was no good.

The Cowboys could breathe easy knowing their costly turnover didn’t result in any points scored. Unfortunately, the relief was short lived. Their next drive only lasted three plays and ended with a forced fumble from rookie defensive tackle Ed Oliver.

Prescott appeared to be locked in with Michael Gallup running an in breaking route on the right, but the play was slow to develop.

No. 6 John Brown pass deep right to Devin Singletary for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 3.7                DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 26%

The forced turnover from Prescott was the biggest play of the game for the Bills. They were gifted with possession at the Cowboys’ 39-yard line. Later in the drive they flexed their creativity on a play that would give them a 14-7 lead. The Bills reached into their bag of tricks with a double reverse pass play with wide receiver John Brown throwing to a wide open Singletary along the sideline.

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After the score, the Cowboys’ WP dropped to 26%. From this point on, the Cowboys failed to get a hold on the game. The Bills never relented their lead and despite their defense giving up a touchdown late in the game, it was never really a close contest.

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Garrett on analytical decisions: ‘We don’t use those stats within the game’

In an era when teams are using advanced math to help call plays, Jason Garrett shows no interest in overriding his gut in key situations.

The Cowboys’ decision to kick a field goal from the New England 11-yard line with 6:04 left in regulation seemed wrong to an awful lot of fans watching the game. It was only the second time Dallas had been that close to the end zone all day. They were down by seven; punching it in would have given the team the chance to tie with a point-after kick.

They had just tried, with a Dak Prescott pass to tight end Blake Jarwin in the back of the end zone. Prescott seemingly had room to run before firing the ball on that third down; even if he had not scored or picked up the first down, he likely would have, at the very least, lessened the fourth-down distance. Despite needing seven yards to move the chains, it was arguably a go-for-it moment.

Jason Garrett disagreed, math and analytics and the way some successful NFL teams are now employing hard and fast statistics to make real-time game decisions be damned.

The coach explained his thought process to 105.3 The Fan on Monday morning:

“Just over six minutes to go in the ball game. We obviously hadn’t done real well on third downs throughout the game, so 4th-and-7 was going to be a challenging situation, particularly down there where you don’t have as much space. So we just felt like, in that situation, with that much time left in the ball game, just go ahead and make it a 4-point game. Let’s see if we can play defense, give our offense an opportunity to come back and win it. The other factor in a situation like that if they do move the ball and they kick a field goal, and you’ve gone for the touchdown and you haven’t made it, now it’s a 10-point game and a two-score game. So this keeps you in a more manageable situation if they do kick a field goal, it still would only be a 7-point game. Biggest thing you try to do there is make sure you give yourself an opportunity to come back the other way. Just under three minutes to go, three timeouts and a two-minute warning, we felt like that gave us a pretty decent chance coming back to win the ball game.”

In Garrett’s answer, some variation of the word feel shows up a lot. Lots of if. Ambiguous, open-ended phrases like let’s see. His usual emphasis on opportunity.

But there’s a big difference between opportunity and probability. And that’s where hosts Shan and RJ went with their follow-up question:

“Coach, there’s a stat called win probability. Basically, it tells you before each play, your chances of winning the game- whether they increase or decrease- based on the play you’re going to run. Do you have that information available to you during the game based on each play? Like, ‘Hey, if we kick the field goal here, our chance of winning the game goes up or down?'”

Garrett paused for a moment before replying, simply, “Yeah, we don’t use those stats within the game.”

One of the best teams in the league, however, does. As mentioned for the radio audience after Garrett’s phone interview, the Baltimore Ravens are taking some of the guesswork out of their playcalling. Sitting up in the coaching booth during every game, right next to offensive coordinator Greg Roman, is a 25-year-old behavioral economics major from Yale who runs the numbers when there’s a decision to be made on the sideline.

Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic has a fascinating profile on Daniel Stern, whose official title with the team is that of football analyst. Now in his fourth season with the Ravens, Stern assists the coaching staff during the week as they create an overall strategy for each opponent. And on gameday, Stern is on the headset, directly talking coach John Harbaugh through things like whether the math says to go for it or not in a key 4th-down situation.

It’s still ultimately up to Harbaugh and his gut, but the analytics give the coach the most data possible to help make the decision. Perhaps not coincidentally, Baltimore (through Week 11) had converted 10 of 14 fourth-down plays attempted in 2019, tied for most in the league. “And on the 10 drives where they’ve converted,” Kapadia writes, “eight have resulted in touchdowns. They’re averaging 10.5 yards per play on fourth down, which is tops in the NFL.”

The Ravens lead the NFL in 4th-down aggressiveness, with a “go rate” over 60 percent (in situations where the win probability is 1-in-5 or better). The Cowboys are between 20 and 25 percent, ranking among the bottom ten teams leaguewide in the above graph, which charts through Week 11.

Sure, it helps the Ravens that they have a weapon like quarterback Lamar Jackson. That obviously lets them be more aggressive in trying to keep opposing defenses on their heels on a do-or-die fourth down play. But Harbaugh has openly embraced concepts like win probability and expected points added and wants to be fed that information during the game.

“We talk about all the different scenarios, and [Stern] basically gives me a percentage,” Harbaugh is quoted in the Athletic piece. “So what’s the added win percentage of going for it? He’ll give it to me like one, two, three, four, five, six, up to whatever. Then you just decide if you want to do it. It’s not strictly based [on the numbers]. I listen to it. If he starts telling me 3 and 4 percent, I get really interested. If it’s 1 or 2 percent, I’m still interested — especially if it’s short, if I think we can get it.”

According to ESPN Stats & Info via Todd Archer, the win probability of the Cowboys going for it on that fourth down with 6:04 to play eleven yards from the goal line? 18.8 percent. “By kicking the field goal,” Archer notes, “the win probability fell to 16.7 percent.”

All of Garrett’s rhetoric about how it felt like cutting the lead kept things more manageable? How the field goal gave the offense a “pretty decent chance” to come back and score again? That decision actually decreased the team’s chances of sneaking a win out of Gillette Stadium. The numbers say so.

Garrett’s dismissal on The Fan?

“Yeah, we don’t use those stats within the game.”

Harbaugh says, “We’re chasing everything that’s gonna give us an edge.”

That sort of philosophy sounds like it would be a breath of fresh air to Cowboys fans, many of whom have tired of Garrett’s old-school insistence on doing things the way he’s always done them just because that’s the way it’s always been done. The 53-year-old Princeton grad may have a lot of football knowledge, but adding a little bit of math to the curriculum sure feels like it might present quite an opportunity.

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Swing State: 3 plays epitomized Cowboys rough loss to Patriots

Analyzing the 3 biggest plays in the Cowboys’ 13-9 defeat to the Patriots using EPA and Win Probability metrics from nflscrapR.

It was yet another close defeat for the Dallas Cowboys, losing 13-9 to the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Cowboys are now 0-4 in games decided by four or fewer points in 2019. The difference between winning and losing came down to a few plays deciding the final outcome, the case in most close contests. The Cowboys needed to play their best brand of football in all three facets against the vaunted Patriots, and they fell short of the mark.

Here are the biggest plays of the game as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) with data from nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position.

No. 1 Chris Jones punt is blocked by Matthew Slater

EPA: -2.8. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 37%

Neither team was able to gain much of an advantage through the first quarter. It was at the end of the Cowboys’ third drive when momentum would shift to the Patriots.

New England’s special teams unit proved to play a big part in the game and it started with All-Pro special teamer Matthew Slater. The blocked punt gave the Patriots perfect starting field position at the Cowboys’ 12-yard line.

The short drive was completed with a 10-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady to rookie wide receiver N’Keal Harry to take an early 7-0 lead.

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No. 2 Dak Prescott pass short right intended for Amari Cooper INTERCEPTED

EPA: -4.6. DAL WP Shift: 26% -> 18%

It was still early in the game but after a touchdown by the Patriots the Cowboys might have felt pressed to score some points of their own. On this play Cooper ran a simple crossing route, but Stephon Gilmore is one of the best man-cover corners in the NFL.

It showed on this play as he basically ran Cooper’s route for him. Gilmore’s interception gifted the Patriots’ offense with ideal field position on their second consecutive drive.

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In spite of the turnover the Cowboys’ defense managed to hold the Patriots’ offense to a field goal try. After a successful kick the score was 10-0 early in the second quarter in favor of the Patriots. Miraculously, the Cowboys were very much in the game, but the early deficit was self-inflicted.

No. 3 Prescott pass deep left to Randall Cobb for 47 yards

EPA: 4.2. DAL WP Shift: 20% -> 36%

The Cowboys’ offenses has featured one of the most explosive passing attacks in the league. Cooper has been the team’s biggest contributing factor to this, but against Gilmore, his role was neutralized. It meant the team’s other receivers needed to have a big game in order for their offense to function as intended.

Those plays were few and far between.

The Cowboys’ biggest gain came on a 47-yard play from Prescott to Cobb in the fourth quarter. Cobb gained 42 yards after the catch but he would lose the ball on the play. He was able to recover the ball for some additional yardage, so altogether the play netted 59 yards.

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This was quite the swing for the Cowboys, but they would settle for a field goal on the drive. A successful attempt brought the score to 13-9; unfortunately for them it would become the final score of the game.

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Highlights, player tracking of Cowboys biggest Week 11 plays

Dissecting the biggest plays in the Dallas Cowboys’ 35-27 victory against the Detroit Lions using EPA and Win Probability metrics.

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys picked up a much needed victory as they beat the Detroit Lions 35-27 in a close game. The Cowboys dominated on the offensive side of the ball while their defense continued to struggle, this time against a Lions team led by backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. The team’s defense has been a let down despite some stellar play from the defensive line. That being the case, the burden is on Dak Prescott to lead the offense in high scoring games, and on Sunday he once again proved more than capable.

It was an explosive game for both passing offenses as each team’s pass defense was lackluster.

Here are the biggest plays of the game in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) with data via nflscrapR. EPA measure the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

Make sure to check out the multiple views of the player tracking data for unique insight into how the plays unfolded.

The Plays

No. 1: Ezekiel Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, FUMBLE

EPA: -4.2. DAL WP Shift: 48% -> 39%

Another game, another turnover on the Cowboys’ opening drive. The team has been known for their slow starts in 2019 and turnovers have been one of the biggest culprits. On the first rush of the game Elliott fumbled after being gang tackled by a pair of Lions. It was edge rusher Trey Flowers that forced the ball out with a recovery from linebacker Jarrad Davis.

The turnover proved to be a costly one as the Lions were able to turn it into their first score of the game. It was a seamless opening drive for the Lions who would start at their opponents’ 28-yard line. After a short drive, running back Bo Scarbrough scored on a 5-yard rush up the middle.

No. 2: Dak Prescott sacked by Devon Kennard for a loss of 10 yards

EPA: -2.4. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 34%

The Cowboys’ third drive of the game looked to be a promising one. Beginning at their own 14-yard line, they would slowly inch their way into a scoring opportunity. The drive spanned 14 plays, 79 yards gained and five first downs. Eventually the Cowboys found themselves at the Lions’ 2-yard line on a goal-to-go situation. On third down it was Lions edge rusher Devon Kennard that would generate the sack on a well-timed blitz call for a loss of 10 yards.

After the sack the Cowboys would have to settle for a 30-yard field goal try from Brett Maher putting the score at 7-3 late in the first quarter.

No. 3: Prescott pass short middle to Tony Pollard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 3.5. DAL WP Shift: 44% -> 55%

Trailing by four points to start the second quarter the Cowboys would get their first touchdown of the game in style. Much like in their previous possession, their fourth drive would also be a long one. This drive covered 7 plays, 70 yards gained and three first downs. Their success was rewarded when Prescott connected with Pollard on a 21-yard reception for the score. Pollard flashed his explosive potential by forcing a missed tackle in route to his first career receiving touchdown.

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Prescott’s advancement echoed by top spot in several advanced stats

The Cowboys have a path to the playoffs, but first they will need a victory against a Stafford-less Lions team. Is victory a sure thing?

It has been a polarizing season for the Dallas Cowboys, who enter Week 11 with a record of 5-4. At this point a record like that would seem disappointing, and it should be. The team has been a model of inconsistency and that includes the coaching staff. In one game they look like the best offense in the NFC, but in another they are trailing the New York Jets 21-6 at half-time. However, despite what the record suggests the Cowboys are in first place in their division as they are currently 4-0 against division rivals.

The reality of a 5-4 record does not match Super Bowl expectations, but there is still optimism for the team to make a strong playoff push. Hope springs from the MVP-caliber play of quarterback Dak Prescott, who has helped transform the team’s identity with his passing efficiency. Prescott and the team’s passing attack has been among the best in the league and this is how they rank in the 2019 season with some key metrics:

  • No. 1 in EPA per pass attempt (0.32), per nflscrapR
  • No. 1 in Success Rate per pass attempt (56%), per nflscrapR
  • No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA (29.6%)
  • No. 1 in yards per pass attempt (8.7)
  • No. 1 in yards per play (6.7)

Prescott gets slighted for being on a team that is one win above .500, but he has maintained his elevated level of play throughout the entirety of the season. Here is a chart that demonstrates Prescott’s effectiveness using Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play). EPA measures the value of a given play using down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

This graph illustrates how Prescott has been far and away the most crucial component in the Cowboys’ offense. His worst game of the season in terms of EPA/play came against the New York Giants in Week 9. Even then his performance was still comparable to the league average.

This chart also accounts for non-QB EPA/play. The differences are drastic, but it stresses just how good Prescott’s season has been.

The Stafford-less Lions

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

In their upcoming Week 11 matchup against the Cowboys the Detroit Lions will be without their starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. He is unlikely to play after suffering a back injury against the Oakland Raiders in Week 9. His injury has been diagnosed as fractured bones in his back per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

In his place backup-quarterback Jeff Driskel will get the starting nod for the second game in a row. In his first start with the Lions, Driskel was 27-of-46 passing against the Chicago Bears for 269 yards, a touchdown and an interception in a losing effort. He also added 37 yards on five carries.

Overall, his performance was all one could ask of a backup, and Driskel is experienced in this regard. In a similar situation in 2018 he was tasked with filling in for an injured Andy Dalton for the Cincinnati Bengals over a five-game stretch.

Playoff Projections

Week 11 is shaping up to be a meaningful week for the Cowboys. Their odds of winning the division will get a big boost with a win against the Lions and and a Philadelphia Eagles loss against the New England Patriots. According to FiveThirtyEights’ 2019 NFL Predictions a Cowboys win and an Eagles loss on Sunday gives the Cowboys a 60% chance to win the division. However, a Cowboys loss and an Eagles win would drop the team’s playoff odds to a mere 16%.

In preparation for Week 11, Driskel called his upcoming start against the Cowboys, “business as normal”. For the Cowboys this will not be a game to take lightly. The Lions are facing a string of injuries on both sides of the field, one player that is in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s matchup for the Lions is cornerback Darius Slay. Slay has arguably been his team’s best player in the defensive backfield and if he is unable to play then the Cowboys’ passing attack will be heavily favored.

All signs point to the Cowboys coming away with a victory on Sunday, but victory for the team has hardly been a sure thing. If the Cowboys want to prove they are contenders, they will need to produce a convincing win against a weakened Lions team. As the dust settles, a win here would be step one for the team as they get ready for a final playoff push down the stretch.

Cowboys’ 7 plays that changed the game in 28-24 loss to Vikings

A look back at the 7 biggest plays from the Cowboys’ 28-24 loss to the Vikings using EPA and WP metrics from nflscrapR.

The Dallas Cowboys might have suffered their worst loss of the season against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. The final score was 28-24, but the biggest takeaway from the game was the plethora of questionable play-calls and mismanaged opportunities. The Cowboys were clearly the better offensive team from a passing standpoint. However, the rushing attack they heavily relied on in the past was a non-factor against the Vikings, and ultimately, it might have been the driving force behind the daunting loss.

It was a game that featured plenty of explosive plays from both offenses. Here are the biggest plays that stood out in the game as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability with data via nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a given play based on down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

The Plays

No. 1: Kirk Cousins pass short right to Dalvin Cook for 27 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 35%

The Vikings’ first big play of the game came on simple screen pass to Cook. He managed to turn the short pass into an explosive 27 yard catch and run. Cousins was not asked to throw deep against the Cowboys, his average pass on Sunday traveled seven yards through the air. Instead he relied on Cook to generate yards after the catch. Cook totaled 109 yards after the catch and his ability to break tackles and create extra yardage was crucial for the Vikings.

This play would end with a facemask penalty from cornerback Chidobe Awuzie. The resulting catch and 15-yard penalty gave the Vikings field position at the Cowboys’ 10-yard line. They would eventually end the drive with a score, putting them up 7-0 early.

No. 2: Cousins pass short left to Cook for 30 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 21% -> 16%

Once again Cook showed why he is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He turned another short screen pass into a huge gain, this time for 30 yards. And much like his first big play this one also ended with a penalty for the Cowboys. A 14-yard roughing the passer call on DeMarcus Lawrence would result in a 44-yard gain for the Vikings.

The Vikings would end the drive with another touchdown. It was tight end Kyle Rudolph that would pick up his second score of the game with linebacker Sean Lee in coverage. The score was now 14-0, but the Cowboys have developed a reputation this season as a team that rallies later in games. This game was no different.

No. 3: Cousins sacked for a loss of 9 yards by Robert Quinn

EPA: -2.3. DAL WP Shift: 13% ->17%

To start the second quarter the Cowboys found themselves in a dire situation. The defense had struggled to contain Cook throughout the first quarter and they desperately needed a stop on third down. So it is no surprise that Quinn came up big for his team when it mattered most. The team needed momentum and Quinn was able to give it to them following this sack.

No. 4: Prescott pass deep right to Amari Cooper for 20 yards

EPA: 2.5. DAL WP Shift: 14% -> 19%

Due to some questionable play-calling on early downs the Cowboys faced plenty of third-and-long situations. Luckily for the Cowboys the combination of Prescott and Cooper has turned into on of the most dependable QB-WR tandems in the NFL. The duo consistently lifted the team in these tight situations, and on this play Cooper displayed his elite awareness skills with a toe drag catch.

No. 5: Prescott pass short left to Michael Gallup for 23 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.9. DAL WP Shift: 19% -> 27%

The Cowboys’ offense finally got back on track in the second quarter. After an impressive 20-yard catch from Cooper, it was Gallup that would give the Cowboys their first score of the game. The Vikings were in zone coverage here, but it was a well designed offensive play that had linebacker Eric Kendricks covering Gallup down the middle of the field for the easy score.

No. 6: Prescott pass deep right to Randall Cobb for 22 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 4.4. DAL WP Shift: 36% -> 49%

Late in the first half the Cowboy were presented with a scoring opportunity. From the 22-yard line the expected points from this part of the field was 2.6. Even so, the Cowboys were not looking to enter half-time with a field goal. The team would even the score at 14-14 on a free play as the defense was called for an offside penalty.

Prescott’s improvisation skills came in handy on the explosive pass play and Cobb showed great focus in making the catch. Cobb had his best game as a Cowboy as he accounted for 106 yards, six receptions and a touchdown.

No. 7: Prescott pass deep right to Cooper for 12 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.4. DAL WP Shift: 44% -> 51%

The duo of Prescott and Cooper connected on plenty of immaculate catches on the night, but this one by far was the most impressive. This play was a pass with some jet-action from RB Tony Pollard. Prescott rolled out to his right as Cooper ran a comeback route. The ball placement essentially left Cooper in a spot that was impossible to defend. But the accuracy from Prescott was also uncanny.

Where do Cowboys go from here?

It was a tough loss for the Cowboys as Prescott put on another MVP-caliber performance. They lost to a good team, but it did not have to be that way. There were plenty of opportunities to seize the game, but it was the coaching staff that came up short with a game plan that featured plenty of runs on first-and-10. All night the Cowboys had struggled to establish the run. Passing on the other hand was a completely different story. Much like they have all season, the Cowboys have possessed on of the best passing offenses in the league through 10 weeks of football.

Right now the biggest question marks come from the Cowboys’ defensive side of the ball. What has been concerning is the team’s never ending battle  against the run despite being at full strength on the defensive front. Even the pass defense has suffered as of late, as Awuzie has failed to take a major leap in his game now in his third year in the league. Overall, the Cowboys do have the talent and the right personnel to compete for a Super Bowl, but reality has not lined up with the expectations for the 2019 season.

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