Tag: EPA

Ranking the NFL’s top 25 QBs in EPA at the end of the 2023 season

Let’s close out the year by looking at the top 25 performers in EPA.

There’s a reason why franchise quarterbacks around the NFL command what they do. While there are technically 32 starters in the league the truth is there are really only 15-20 max who are actually starter-level. The rest of the teams would be better off starting over or trying to land one of the game’s better backups. That was certainly the case this year, which might be dubbed the year of the backup-QB.

Throughout the season we ranked quarterbacks around the league based on different stats. Sometimes QBR, sometimes PFF grades, sometimes other advanced stats. The idea was to give a broad range of analytics to determine which quarterbacks were truly producing the most and not just benefiting from the talent of those around them.

EPA is probably the best number we have for that, so let’s close out the year by looking at the top 25 performers in EPA.

3 Key numbers following Cowboys Week 12 win over Washington

Beating Washington 45-10, the Cowboys dominated on Thanksgiving Day, setting individual records and a pace for greatness going forward. | From @ReidDHanson

While Americans across the land were feasting at the dinner table on Thanksgiving, the home team at AT&T Stadium was enjoying a feast of their own. By a 45-10 score, the Cowboys ate up their division rivals from Washington, continuing their torrid pace towards the postseason and proving they deserve to be discussed amongst the league’s best.

Standing at 8-3, only one team boasts a better record than Dallas on the season. The Cowboys’ dominance on both sides of the ball is increasingly difficult to ignore and Dallas looks to enter the month of December playing their best ball of the season.

The win over Washington was expected but still proved impressive. The offense was a model of efficiency as quarterback Dak Prescott is playing near-flawless football. After weeks of musical chairs, the offensive line is finally starting to gel. Star defensive back DaRon Bland set the record for most interception returns for touchdown in a season (5).

Even place kicker Brandon Aubrey is making history with the most consecutive field goals made to start a career (22). Here’s a look at some key numerical takeaways from the Week 12 action.

5 stats that prove Brian Johnson is excelling as the Eagles offensive coordinator

We’re looking at 5 stats that prove Brian Johnson is excelling in his new role as the Philadelphia #Eagles offensive coordinator

Brian Johnson is in his third season with the Philadelphia Eagles.

After the Birds’ Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, then-offensive coordinator Shane Steichen was hired by the Indianapolis Colts to be their new head coach.

For Johnson, who was the quarterbacks coach, that meant a promotion to offensive coordinator following the 2022 campaign, and the expectation was that the rising coach prospect would only be here a short time before moving on to coach his team.

Through the first seven games, Johnson has received his fair share of criticism.

Still, as Rueben Frank and others have pointed out, Johnson is doing a great job and has the Eagles heading toward a repeat appearance in the Super Bowl.

With the Week 8 matchup against the Commanders looming, we’re providing five stats that prove Johnson has more than excelled as the new offensive coordinator.

 

Bucs defense among top in NFL by advanced metrics

Tampa Bay’s defensive unit has been with the NFL’s elite over four weeks.

If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defensive unit has looked like one of the NFL’s best in its first four weeks, it’s because it absolutely has been.

The Bucs remain the only team in the NFC South with a positive point differential, and the defense is a huge reason why. The team isn’t only one of the best defenses in the league by points allowed, but advanced metrics also favor Tampa Bay and have it as boasting one of the NFL’s elite defenses through four weeks.

The first metric is EPA, or Expected Points Allowed. Naturally, for a defense, you want that to be lower, or in this case, in the negatives. As it stands, the Bucs are currently sixth in overall defensive EPA/play with a rating of -0.110, per rbsdm.com. The Bucs particularly shine with their rushing defense, managing -0.126 EPA/play in that area.

Other advanced metrics back up this claim too, though. The Bucs are also sixth in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which calculates for a team’s success relative to the season average. The Bucs defense has a DVOA of -12.7%, per FTNFantasy, making it another stat to add to Tampa Bay’s impressive run so far.

There are certainly some tough offensive opponents ahead for Tampa Bay that will test this unit. But NFC South teams beware — to beat the Bucs will require going above and beyond if the ball is in your hands.

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The Bucs offense is 14th in EPA per play through Week 4

The Bucs have an above-average offense and one of the best passing offenses in the NFL according to these advanced metrics:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have put up points on offense, and according to advanced metrics, that offense is better than the average in the NFL. According to website rbsdm.com, the Bucs are 14th overall in offensive EPA per play after their Week 4 game against the Saints. EPA, or Expected Points Added, is an advanced metric that attempts to measure the prowess of an offense or defense based on an estimation on how many points will be scored on that drive.

As it stands, the Bucs have an EPA of 0.014 on offense. That not only puts Tampa Bay in the top half of the league, but it also is much better than any of its NFC South counterparts. The Bucs offense by EPA is much better than the New Orleans Saints (22nd, -0.096 EPA/play), the Carolina Panthers (25th, -0.130 EPA/play) and the Atlanta Falcons (26th, -0.137). Should that keep up, the Bucs have a strong path to winning the division again.

The offense is particularly impressive when its main weakness in running the ball is eliminated from the equation. The Bucs are sixth in the NFL in dropback EPA, meaning that their passing game by advanced metrics is only worse than the Dallas Cowboys (fifth), the Los Angeles Chargers (fourth), the Buffalo Bills (third), the Miami Dolphins (second) and the San Francisco 49ers (first).

Tampa Bay’s rush EPA remains its biggest weakness, as it is 26th in the NFL in that metric with a -0.195 rush EPA/play.

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Kirk Cousins’ EPA is through the roof

It’s been a great start to the season for Vikings QB Kirk Cousins

EPA/play is defined as a measure of success that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense’s likelihood to score. According to Pro Football Focus, EPA is attributed equally to both teams, and the metric is fairly reliable in identifying the best teams in football.

When attributed to players, EPA/play measures the player’s performance and how they affect their team’s ability to score points and win the game.

Sumer Sports, a quantitative analysis firm focused on the NFL, reported the top ten quarterbacks in total EPA through the first two weeks. Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins ranked seventh, despite an 0-2 record for Minnesota.

Despite the struggles at the beginning of this season, the Vikings are still second in passing yards, first in passing touchdowns and fourth in net yards per attempt. Cousins and this passing game have tried to lead Minnesota to victory. The rest of the team needs to catch up.

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This one chart helps explain the incredible value of Packers RB Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones is insanely good at football. Duh. This one chart helps explain why he’s such an incredibly valuable NFL running back.

Just one chart can help explain the incredible value of Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones, who will be back in Green Bay in 2023 after agreeing to a contract restructuring on Friday.

Let’s start with a simple premise: Running backs want to maximize the return on every carry, and they want every carry to be valuable in the pursuit of points.

Few running backs have done both things better in the last 15 years than Jones.

Here’s the chart showing Jones’ brilliance as a runner, from Paul Noonan of Acme Packing Co:

On the X axis: EPA per rush, or expected points added per rush.

On the Y axis: Rushing yards over expected per rush.

EPA is a measure of value in terms of adding future expected points per play. Only Jamaal Charles has been more valuable per rush than Jones since 2008.

Rushing yards over expected measures the yards a running back produces over what’s expected of an average running back in the same situation given the blocking and space. In this metric, only Nick Chubb has been better since 2008.

By these two metrics, Jones, Charles and Chubb sit head and shoulders above all other running backs during this 15-year stretch.

And now Jones will be back in Green Bay for 2023 and likely 2024.

Jones has rushed for 5.0 or more yards per rush four times in six NFL seasons and averages 5.1 yards per rush over his 86-game career. He also has three 1,000-yard rushing seasons on fewer than 250 attempts, which ranks second all-time.

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What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA say about the Saints going into Week 5

What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, and ANY/A say about the Saints going into Week 5:

It’s too soon to say the New Orleans Saints have figured anything out or fixed their problems, and we won’t be able to say that until they’ve leveled out the win-loss column. But what we can do is acknowledge the growth they’re making in some areas while continuing to focus on where they can improve. And though they did lose Week 4’s game with the Minnesota Vikings, there are some positive takeaways when you look through the advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, ANY/A, SCIA, and XLRA (okay, those last two were made up). Here’s what we’ve learned:

What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA say about the Saints going into Week 4

What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, and ANY/A say about the Saints going into Week 4:

We’re almost into Week 4, and things are rough for the New Orleans Saints, which is reflected in the advanced metrics you’ll find orbiting around the NFL. Whether you prefer DVOA, EPA, ANY/A, or something else entirely, we’ve got it collected for you here. Let’s see where the Saitns rank among their peers on offense, defense, and at quarterback:

Advanced stats say surging 49ers present formidable foe for Cowboys

Cowboys scored over 100 more points and allowed less points than SF, but the 49ers hold a slight edge in key win indicators. @ProfessorO_NFL dives into DVOA, EPA, ANY/A and Toxicity.

The 2021 NFL regular season officially ended with the 12-5 Dallas Cowboys dominating the Philadelphia Eagles in a record-breaking night for quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys were short-handed due to injuries and COVID-19 cases but able to win on Saturday then watch to see if they could move up in NFC seeding. With the Seattle Seahawks beating the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers upsetting the Los Angeles Rams, the Cowboys were able to move from the four seed to the three and will have their sights on the 49ers this Sunday in the opening round of the playoffs.

The 49ers ended their season on a high with a come-from-behind victory. They finished the season third in their division with a 10-7 record but with the sixth seed. They will fly into Dallas with similar momentum as both teams have won four of their last five games.

This matchup features several intriguing storylines, however the one that is sure to garner a lot of attention will be the matchup of Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn facing off with 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for Quinn’s Atlanta Falcons during their best days that included a trip to the Super Bowl. Their knowledge of each other’s schemes and thought processes presents an interesting meeting.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.