Tag: next gen stats

Next Gen Stats: Bills’ Khalil Shakir scored near impossible TD vs. Steelers

It was essentially impossible but happened:

Khalil Shakir’s touchdown against the Steelers seemed near impossible.

Because that’s exactly what it was, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

The Bills beat the Steelers, 31-17, in the NFL’s wild-card weekend. As the Steelers inched back into the game with the score at 24-17, Shakir iced it with the final touchdown.

On the play, it appeared like Shakir was about to be tackled very quickly…and by none other than All-Pro defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick. Instead, Shakir spun off him and stayed with it, ending the gritty play in the end zone.

How unlucky was the score? Per Next Gen Stats, Shakir had less than a one percent chance to make it into the end zone… but he did:

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Chiefs led NFL in unblocked QB pressures during 2023 regular season

The #Chiefs led the NFL in unblocked pressures during the 2023 regular season.

The Kansas City Chiefs’ defensive turnaround in 2023 was as impressive as it was surprising to many fans who grew accustomed to the team’s offense-first approach in the Patrick Mahomes era.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo managed to change the narrative around his unit this season, and the Chiefs’ ferocious pass rush played an integral role in making Kansas City’s defense a menacing force in the AFC.

According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats Twitter page, Spagnuolo’s innovative schemes in 2023 generated the most unblocked quarterback pressures in the league.

While the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots came close to matching Kansas City’s 73 unblocked pressures, the Chiefs stood atop the NFL’s leaderboard in the category at season’s end.

Hassling opposing quarterbacks always serves to bolster a defense’s firepower in key moments, and Spagnuolo should be expected to continue leveraging his ability to get blitzers clear lanes to the backfield against the Buffalo Bills this weekend.

Next Gen Stats: Bills’ Tyler Bass may be the NFL’s fastest kicker (really)

Fact: Tyler Bass is the fastest kicker alive:

The New England Patriots were off and running against the Buffalo Bills in Week 17. But not as fast as Tyler Bass.

The Bills went on to beat their AFC East rivals 27-21 last week. But the game started with a dud as the Patriots returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown.

Returner Jalen Reagor got by the Bills kicker. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t flying, too.

No, really.

In a stat few expected, during the Next Gen Stats era, Bass is now the NFL’s fastest kicker. He got up to 20 mph chasing Reagor.

A versatile athlete.

The proof can be found below:

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Lions run defense continues to smother opposing RBs

The Lions run defense has been very good all season, but the recent run of stuffing RBs has been even better

One of the overlooked facets of Saturday night’s controversially officiated game between the Lions and Cowboys is just how well the Detroit run defense played. For the second week in a row, the Lions turned in an elite defensive performance in stopping opposing running backs.

In this case, it was Tony Pollard. The lead Cowboys RB managed just 49 yards on 16 carries, 18 of which came on one run. Even more impressive than holding Pollard to just over 3.0 yards per carry is that the Lions did so without stacking the box a single time, per Next Gen Stats. Base defense suffocated the opposing running back in Dallas, just as it did one week earlier against the Vikings. Minnesota, Detroit’s Week 18 opponent, gained 16 yards on 10 carries by running backs in Week 16 against the Lions.

It has been an unheralded strength of the Lions defense all season, but especially since the Week 9 bye week. In the eight games since the bye, Detroit’s defense has allowed opposing running backs just 474 yards on 151 carries. That’s an average of just 3.18 yards per handoff. Quarterbacks and wideouts, as well as whatever you want to call Taysom Hill, have fared quite a bit better against the Lions, but the run defense has been great at stopping running backs.

It looks even better on first-down carries by running backs. The Lions have more tackles-for-loss on running backs (10) than runs of five or more yards (9) on 1st-and-10 runs in the last six games.

For the year, Detroit’s overall run defense ranks third (tied with Chicago) in total yards per carry allowed (3.7) and fifth in rushing yards per game (88.8).

 

Lions beat the Vikings with an unusual offensive strategy

The Lions beat the Vikings with an unusual offensive strategy that was a stark contrast to Minnesota’s attack

Going into the Week 16 matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, one of the big questions for the Detroit Lions was how the team would attack coordinator Brian Flores’ exotic defense. The Vikings blitzed more often, but also dropped extra players in coverage more often, than any other defensive scheme.

The Lions and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson had a plan. All the window dressing about wondering where a blitz might come from, or if the defensive end will drop back in coverage, doesn’t really matter if the ball comes out quickly and stays short. Johnson designed a game plan that exploited the inherent weaknesses in the Vikings’ unusual defense.

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Minnesota was terrible at covering running backs and short passes to wideouts entering the game. The Vikings counter those issues by tackling well in space and limiting yards after the catch (YAC). Johnson and the Lions correctly divined that Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Detroit skill position players were good enough at YAC to exploit that potential. And exploit it they did.

The Lions finished with 152 yards of YAC in the game out of 257 passing yards total from Jared Goff. They averaged over 5.0 YAC per reception.

Goff’s passing chart (via Next Gen Stats) shows just how focused on the short passing game and YAC the Lions’ game script was against Minnesota. He attempted 40 passes and not one of them went more than 20 yards down the field. Instead, Goff sprayed the shallow flats and short middle — and did so quite effectively.

It’s an unusual strategy for the Lions. Goff entered the game 8th in average air yards per attempt at 6.5. In this game, Goff’s average air yards were a paltry 3.8 — the lowest of his career in any game where he’s thrown at least 10 passes. But it worked well at taking advantage of the inherent weaknesses in the Vikings’ complex scheme. Having elusive players like St. Brown (60 YAC) and Gibbs (33 YAC in a game where he had 20 total receiving yards) made it work.

It was a stark contrast to his Minnesota counterpart, Nick Mullens, who averaged a league-high 14.5 air yards per attempt. The Lions’ biggest defensive weakness is covering the deep throw, and that’s what Mullens and the Vikings tried to exploit. It worked fairly well for them, too; Mullens posted 411 passing yards and two touchdowns but also threw four INTs and could have thrown two more on the high-risk/reward style of play.

Russell Wilson’s pass to Courtland Sutton was longest ‘air distance’ TD in 2023

Russell Wilson’s TD pass to Courtland Sutton traveled 60.8 yards in the air, making it the longest TD by air distance this season.

In the third quarter of Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson threw a 46-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Courtland Sutton.

Wilson will only get 46 passing yards added to his totals for the throw, but his pass traveled 60.8 yards in the air. That represented the longest touchdown by air distance this season, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats page on Twitter/X.

It was an impressive throw, but after the game, Wilson deflected praise to his offensive line and to Sutton.

“I think, first of all, that play doesn’t happen without the line,” Wilson said. “I think I had about 35 seconds about back there on that play. I went left, went right, went through my reads probably one, two, three, four, five, back to one, and then back to Courtland again.

“I think Sutton obviously has been all special year. A tremendous work ethic, great leader, great teammate, great hands, can catch everything. He did a good job because he was going deep, kind of came back for a second and then he went deep again which was really great play by him and one hand in front of our fans is pretty special.”

The score marked the 10th time this season that Wilson and Sutton have connected for a touchdown. As has been the case for many of those scores, Wilson threw it up and gave Sutton a chance to make a play.

“I tried to give him a chance and he made a great play,” the QB said.

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Next Gen Stats reveal just how bad Commanders defense is in 2023

Washington’s defense allows far more big plays than any other NFL defense.

The Washington Commanders defense was supposed to be a team strength in 2023. In addition to bringing virtually everyone back and adding Emmanuel Forbes (first round) and Quan Martin (second round), the Commanders have arguably been the NFL’s worst defense in 2023.

Washington’s struggles led the franchise to trade defensive ends Chase Young and Montez Sweat before the NFL trade deadline. The Commanders didn’t want to trade Sweat, but the value (high second-round pick) proved too valuable to resist. Then, after Washington’s 45-10 loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, head coach Ron Rivera fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and secondary coach Brent Vieselmeyer.

For Rivera, the timing couldn’t have been worse. He took over as Washington’s defensive play-caller the week before the Commanders hosted the Miami Dolphins — the NFL’s most explosive team.

As expected, Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill had a huge day vs. Washington, catching five passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Hill could’ve had a lot more, but Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel took his foot off the gas in the second half.

Hill had touchdown receptions of 78 and 60 yards, highlighting the Commanders’ inability to limit explosive plays. Here’s this stat from Next Gen Stats, showing Washington’s struggles against vertical routes.

The Commanders have allowed 19 touchdowns on vertical routes this season — eight more than any other team — EIGHT more.

Why is Washington’s secondary so bad? There are several reasons. No team has as many communication breakdowns in the back end as the Commanders. Anytime there is a big play, Washington looks lost and clueless, with players looking at one another, unsure of their individual responsibilities on the play.

One conclusion to draw is the Commanders lost secondary coach Chris Harris in the offseason. Harris left for a job with Tennessee, and Washington replaced him with Vieselmeyer. The Commanders clearly took multiple steps back.

Is it a coaching issue or a talent issue?

It’s both, although we’ll lean more toward the coaching side. This is largely the same group from last season, and they are much worse.

You can probably expect the coaching and talent issue to be fixed beginning in January.

Eagles’ Jordan Mailata ‘couldn’t believe’ Bills coverage for Jalen Hurts winning TD

#Eagles’ Jordan Mailata ‘couldn’t believe’ #Bills coverage for Jalen Hurts winning TD:

The Buffalo Bills were left shocked by the Philadelphia Eagles’ game winning touchdown in overtime to win 37-34 in Week 12. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts took the snap and almost immediately took off running for the end zone from almost 20 yards out to win the game on a walk-off rushing touchdown.

And Bills fans will be wondering why the defense, who would naturally have a difficult time against a team with only one loss all season, would be in that coverage to allow the opposing quarterback the time and space to run into the end zone.

So too was Eagles left tackle Jordan Mailata.

“[I] couldn’t believe the Bills gave [us] that look.” said Mailata to NFL Network’s national correspondent James Palmer following the contest.

What is the Eagles lineman referring to? NFL Next Gen Stats mapped Hurts win, which you can see here if you have recovered from Sunday’s difficult loss:

In that play, the Bills safety Micah Hyde is lined up on the left hashmark parallel with Hurts. Eagles running back D’Andre Swift, wearing No. 0, moves in motion to the right, and Hyde starts drifting toward Hurts right along with linebacker Terrel Bernard.

Since there is a one-on-one coverage on towards the left between Eagles receiver Devonta Smith and Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas, Hyde shifting over gave Hurts enough of a distance between them pre-snap to win the foot race.

Shifting over could be less damaging if Bernard fills that lane instead of shifting along with Hyde, or if linebacker Tyrel Dodson, who was tasked with blitzing Hurts, was able to close the gap created by Mailata and his left guard teammate Landon Dickerson quickly. That is the difficulty of playing an excellent team like the Eagles – mistakes compound into scores.

“Hurts made a number of plays with his feet … he got out a few times and made some trouble with his feet.” said Bills coach Sean McDermott after the game.

Mailata was the first to meet Eagles QB Hurts in the end zone to celebrate the winning touchdown with him.

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Packers WR Christian Watson had NFL’s fastest play of Week 12

Christian Watson hit 21.53 miles per hour on his 53-yard catch against the Lions on Thanksgiving.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson was the fastest ball-carrier of Week 12 (through games on Sunday) thanks to the deep shot that hit to open Thanksgiving Day at Ford Field.

Per Next Gen Stats, Watson hit 21.53 miles per hour on his 53-yard catch on the first play of the Packers’ 29-22 win over the Detroit Lions.

Watson ran a deep post on a play Matt LaFleur wanted to change pre-game. The Packers kept it in, and Jordan Love connected with Watson — who got a free release and flew by the coverage — for the big play to kick off the holiday showdown. The completion set up an opening drive touchdown for the Packers, who scored on their first two possessions, led 20-6 in the first half and eventually closed out the win late.

Watson finished the upset win with five catches, 94 yards and a 16-yard touchdown. It was a breakout performance for the second-year receiver, and it could have been so much more.

Watson’s speed on the 53-yard catch is currently the 18th fastest play in the NFL this season and the fourth fastest play by a Packers player, trailing Jayden Reed (32-yard TD in Week 11), Aaron Jones (35-yard TD in Week 1) and Keisean Nixon (51-yard kickoff return in Week 9). The Packers (4) and Miami Dolphins (9) are the only teams with three or more plays in the top 20 this season, per Next Gen Stats.

Last year, Watson hit his top speed — 21.72 miles per hour — on a 46-yard touchdown run against the Chicago Bears in Week 13.

Can Watson’s elite speed help fuel another Packers run to end the 2023 season?

Sam Howell is posting some impressive numbers in his second NFL season

Some impressive stuff from Sam Howell recently.

Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell is a hot topic each week. Washington fans love to debate a quarterback’s future. If Howell performed well the week before, fans are ready to crown him. If he struggles, the other segment of the fan base is making images of Caleb Williams in a Commanders’ uniform.

What most fail to understand is that Howell has started 10 NFL games. There will be ups. There will be downs. Sometimes, that means a bad game; sometimes, that means a play that makes you ask yourself, “What the bleep was that?”

That’s every young quarterback.

The truth is, Howell can play. Is he Washington’s franchise quarterback? He has certainly earned the right to be in that conversation. Howell is improving each week, making multiple high-level throws; he is taking fewer sacks and continues to learn how to manipulate the pocket.

We’re halfway through the 2023 NFL season. There are some impressive data points available for Howell now.

Here are some of the best stats/numbers from Howell after Week 9.