This chart says Dennis Allen is the NFL’s best defensive play caller

This chart says Dennis Allen is the NFL’s best defensive play caller. He’s good, and we don’t need advanced analytics to know that, but he isn’t infallible:

You won’t have a hard time convincing New Orleans Saints fans that Dennis Allen calls a mean defense — that’s his best strength, and it was the number-one reason so many people bought into the idea of promoting him to replace Sean Payton back in 2022. It’s Allen’s shortcomings as a leader and team-builder that drew criticism at the time and during the years since.

Still, it’s validating to see information like this plotted out to highlight Allen’s best qualities. NFL analyst Steve Patton ranked every defensive play caller from the 2023 season based on what he calls “coverage and market efficiency with team constraints” which examines how each defense performed relative to absences (for injuries and suspensions) and quality of opposition, among other factors.

And Allen came out on top. You don’t need to invent new metrics to see why. He fielded the league’s fourth-best defense on third downs (allowing a conversion on just 34.5% of downs) and the third-best unit on fourth downs (42.3%, with opponents going 11-for-26). Despite getting little production from his pass rush — the Saints finished with the NFL’s second-lowest pressure rate (15.1%) and fourth-worst sacks rate (5.7%) — Allen’s secondary held up even with Marshon Lattimore missing seven games to an injury. They allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards per game (207.3) and tied for the third-most interceptions (18).

But they weren’t perfect. Allen hasn’t been able to micromanage the run defense after being promoted to head coach, and it shows: even after drafting a first-round defensive tackle and signing two veteran free agents, New Orleans finished inside the bottom-10 in both yards per carry (4.4) and rushing yards per game (119.9). And he has to take the blame for a Saints pass rush that was asleep at the wheel for much of the season. Of their 34 sacks on the season, 15 came in the last five games. Allen’s reluctance to use undersized pass rushers like Zack Baun until the season was effectively over is a major blind spot in his coaching philosophy.

So take this chart’s findings with a grain of salt. Allen’s defensive play calling is an asset, sure, but he isn’t invincible. The Saints lost a pivotal early-season game to the Green Bay Packers when his defense gave up a pair of 80-yard touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. Sean McVay got the better of him in a late-season loss to the Los Angeles Rams that started with a 95-yard touchdown drive, and which got away from him when the Rams scored 20  unanswered points in four possessions before and after the halftime break. In this league, even a good defensive play caller can be outfoxed by an offense firing on all cylinders.

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Data Dump: Where do the Browns rank in the NFL after beating Bears

How the Cleveland Browns rank in various metrics and advanced analytics compared to the rest of the NFL.

In this week’s Data Dump, we look at how well the Browns are progressing as the regular season starts to end and teams prepare for the playoffs. The Browns’ last-second victory over the Chicago Bears has nearly guaranteed them a spot in the AFC playoffs. The team must prepare their struggling offense for a playoff run against some of the top offenses in the NFL.

The Browns’ offense had a miserable showing against the Bears for the first three-quarters. They could not run or pass the ball against a resurging but average Bears’ defense. The advanced analytics will not be kind to the Browns’ offense this week. Although, after throwing over 130 passes in the past three weeks, Flacco should have a large enough sample size to include in charts on quarterback play. Although, throwing three interceptions, including a pick-six won’t help his EPA. 

The Browns defense remains dominant. They nearly shut out the Chicago Bears, ending most of their drives in three and outs. The defense is playoff-ready, and the unit will face off against some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The defense proved their tenacity and determination for nearly the entire season. The stats reflect it. The unit needs to finish the season strong as the team will go as far as they take them.

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Data Dump: What the trends tell us about the Browns with 5 weeks left

Examining NFL metrics and analytics to determine how well the Cleveland Browns are playing

The Cleveland Browns finished their two-week tour out west with painful losses to the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams. In this week’s “Data Dump,” we’ll see how poorly the Browns did during their mini odyssey. The trip was not kind to the Browns as their great defense faltered against experienced gunslingers and their crafty coaches. The offense returned with more questions at the quarterback position than when they left after Joe Flacco’s Cleveland debut.

The team’s homecoming against the Jacksonville Jaguars allows the Browns to right the ship and control their destiny for the remainder of the season. The Browns and Jaguars game has major implications for the AFC playoff race. The Jaguars are a good, but not a great team, battling to win the AFC South. If the Browns defeat the Jaguars, it will inspire a lot of confidence in the group, both internally and externally.

After 12 games, the Browns are firmly entrenched in their statistical tiers. One game can no longer swing the Browns in one direction or another. Right now, the Browns need to stack the success of multiple games to put a dent in their rankings. The team must finish the season strong and head into the playoffs on a hot streak.

Data Dump: Browns tumble down the rankings after Broncos defeat

How the Cleveland Browns rank across the NFL in various metrics and analytics.

After a bad loss to the Broncos, the Cleveland Browns have spent the week in Los Angeles, California, preparing for the Rams on Sunday. I believe the team had the right idea of putting distance between themselves and the Broncos game. The theme of this week’s “Data Dump” is reminding ourselves of the season, not the results of one game. It’s about the cumulative work of a team battling injuries and adversaries throughout the season.

The Browns announced that Joe Flacco is the backup quarterback if starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson is not cleared from the concussion protocol. If Flacco starts, he will be the fourth quarterback to start for the Browns this season. While Browns fans are accustomed to starting four or more quarterbacks in a season, winning those games is a welcomed change. Unfortunately, four quarterbacks over 13 weeks is a death knell for an offense that will certainly rank near the bottom of the league in most metrics and categories.

The defense is the team’s shining star leading us to the playoffs. They still rank at the top of the league after an uncharacteristically rough game against the Denver Broncos.  They have a chance to correct the course against a Rams offense that has been red-hot the past two weeks.

Let’s reflect on how the Browns are doing this season in spite of their injuries.

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Form Rating: Who are the hottest NBA players right now?

Who are the hottest players in the league at any given moment? To determine that, we’re introducing HoopsHype’s Form Rating metric. This advanced metric takes into account each player’s overall rating in the previous 15 days to identify the most …

Who are the hottest players in the league at any given moment? To determine that, we’re introducing HoopsHype’s Form Rating metric. This advanced metric takes into account each player’s overall rating in the previous 15 days to identify the most productive lately.

This algorithm places greater emphasis on the most recent games, so exceptional performances in the past few days will boost a player’s Form Rating in a big manner.

(RNK: Form Rating ranking; RAT: Form Rating; 2023-24: Season Global Rating).

Global Rating: Who are the best players by position?

The modern NBA may be positionless, but fortunately the players are not all cast by the same mold. As a still very useful way to distinguish them by role, we’re ranking the 30 best players for each position, according to their 2022-23 Global Rating.

The modern NBA may be positionless, but fortunately the players are not all cast by the same mold. As a still very useful way to distinguish them by role, we’re ranking the 30 best players for each position, according to their 2022-23 Global Rating.

Data Dump: Browns rise up rankings after dominating the Cardinals

Where do the Cleveland Browns rank across various metrics after their week 9 performance against the Arizona Cardinals.

In this week’s Data Dump, the Cleveland Browns are quickly rising through the ranks of the NFL after delivering a 27-0 win against the Arizona Cardinals. While the Browns are 5-3 at the halfway point of their season, the statistical analysis didn’t agree that the Browns were worthy of their record.

The return of Deshaun Watson propelled the Browns’ offense from being one of the worst in the league to a subpar offense after one game. It sounds small, but the improvement was a step in the right direction for models that assume offenses are far more important than defenses. The Browns are now on the doorstep of the upper echelon of the league according to most metrics. A few more games like Sunday from Watson and the Browns will quickly advance to the top of the NFL with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Ravens.

Sunday’s matchup between the Browns and the Ravens will pit the two top defenses in the NFL against each other. The Browns will be looking for revenge after losing their first game after rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson was named the starter the morning of the game due to the aforementioned Watson injury.  The teams will be extremely motivated to prove which team is not only the best in the AFC North but among the entire league.

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Vikings’ offensive line continues to shine

The offensive line for the Minnesota Vikings has vastly improved from last season and the numbers reflect that

Ben Baldwin of The Athletic is one of the key voices of the analytics movement in the NFL. In one of his exercises, he compiled the best offensive lines when it comes to true pass sets

The Minnesota Vikings ranked sixth in the NFL in aggregate offensive line rankings while also boasting one of the higher grades coming from tackles.

True pass sets are categorized as plays with more than four rushers and cannot be play-action, screens, short dropbacks or throws under two seconds.

Going into the season, one of the main gripes with the Vikings and their offense was their pass protection. Kirk Cousins was hit the most of any quarterback last season. It was to the point that Cousins’ resilience through the constant battering was a key point in the Netflix series that he was featured in.

If the Vikings are looking to make a playoff push, whether it is with the rookie Jaren Hall or now-Minnesota legend Josh Dobbs, they will have to keep them upright in straight dropback situations.

So far, Minnesota has been doing that better than the vast majority of the league.

It is another feather in the cap of a team that is doing everything in its power to compete sooner rather than later.

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Data Dump: How are the Browns doing after the Seahawks loss?

Where the Cleveland Browns are ranked amongst the NFL after 8 weeks.

The midway point between games is a great time to take a step back from the disappointing loss against the Seattle Seahawks by the Cleveland Browns and examine the rest of the league. Football is a week-to-week sport and in that flow, we can forget that the sport lasts for nearly half a year. It’s important to take a 30,000-foot view of the league to better assess the landscape.

In Data Dump we aim to give you the weekly breakdown of where the Browns stand across the entire NFL among multiple categories. The Browns are standing pat at four wins after losing to the Seahawks 20-24. The loss showed that the Browns offense has steadily improved since losing star running back Nick Chubb and quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Browns are slowly regaining their offensive identity without their franchise players. The offense is still turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Under Watson’s leadership, the Browns should eliminate most of the turnovers.

The defense is the biggest victim of the turnovers. They’re constantly forced to defend shorter fields than other teams. While the Browns’ defense has done a good job limiting offenses, they are not invincible. They cannot continue defending 50 yards at a time. The season-long stats show how field positioning is dragging a historically great Browns’ defense into a top-three defense.

New Commanders’ head of analytics played a role in Tuesday’s trades

Eugene Shen making an impact before he officially begins his new job.

Josh Harris made his first significant hire last week, tapping Eugene Shen as the Washington Commanders’ Senior Vice President of Football Strategy.

Shen’s new position with the Commanders wasn’t scheduled to begin until Nov. 6, which is next week. However, Shen is already at work, according to head coach Ron Rivera.

With the Commanders trading defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young before Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline, they wanted to receive the best possible value for the talented pass rushers. Enter Shen.

Rivera was asked if Tuesday was the best day to trade Young and Sweat because, as the saying goes, “deadlines spur action.”

“I think when you look at what the options were and what the opportunities were in terms of the value, and that’s where Eugene Shen comes in, is being able to talk about what the potential value is,” Rivera said. “Those things all came into play.”

To be clear, Rivera didn’t say Shen was in the building. But Harris, who relies heavily on analytics with his other franchises, wanted Shen’s expert input.

The Commanders received a second-round pick from Chicago for Sweat and a third-round pick from San Francisco for Young.

Now, the Commanders have nine picks in the 2024 NFL draft, including three expected to be inside the top 50.