Tag: N’Keal Harry

Swing State: 3 plays epitomized Cowboys rough loss to Patriots

Analyzing the 3 biggest plays in the Cowboys’ 13-9 defeat to the Patriots using EPA and Win Probability metrics from nflscrapR.

It was yet another close defeat for the Dallas Cowboys, losing 13-9 to the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Cowboys are now 0-4 in games decided by four or fewer points in 2019. The difference between winning and losing came down to a few plays deciding the final outcome, the case in most close contests. The Cowboys needed to play their best brand of football in all three facets against the vaunted Patriots, and they fell short of the mark.

Here are the biggest plays of the game as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) with data from nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position.

No. 1 Chris Jones punt is blocked by Matthew Slater

EPA: -2.8. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 37%

Neither team was able to gain much of an advantage through the first quarter. It was at the end of the Cowboys’ third drive when momentum would shift to the Patriots.

New England’s special teams unit proved to play a big part in the game and it started with All-Pro special teamer Matthew Slater. The blocked punt gave the Patriots perfect starting field position at the Cowboys’ 12-yard line.

The short drive was completed with a 10-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady to rookie wide receiver N’Keal Harry to take an early 7-0 lead.

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No. 2 Dak Prescott pass short right intended for Amari Cooper INTERCEPTED

EPA: -4.6. DAL WP Shift: 26% -> 18%

It was still early in the game but after a touchdown by the Patriots the Cowboys might have felt pressed to score some points of their own. On this play Cooper ran a simple crossing route, but Stephon Gilmore is one of the best man-cover corners in the NFL.

It showed on this play as he basically ran Cooper’s route for him. Gilmore’s interception gifted the Patriots’ offense with ideal field position on their second consecutive drive.

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In spite of the turnover the Cowboys’ defense managed to hold the Patriots’ offense to a field goal try. After a successful kick the score was 10-0 early in the second quarter in favor of the Patriots. Miraculously, the Cowboys were very much in the game, but the early deficit was self-inflicted.

No. 3 Prescott pass deep left to Randall Cobb for 47 yards

EPA: 4.2. DAL WP Shift: 20% -> 36%

The Cowboys’ offenses has featured one of the most explosive passing attacks in the league. Cooper has been the team’s biggest contributing factor to this, but against Gilmore, his role was neutralized. It meant the team’s other receivers needed to have a big game in order for their offense to function as intended.

Those plays were few and far between.

The Cowboys’ biggest gain came on a 47-yard play from Prescott to Cobb in the fourth quarter. Cobb gained 42 yards after the catch but he would lose the ball on the play. He was able to recover the ball for some additional yardage, so altogether the play netted 59 yards.

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This was quite the swing for the Cowboys, but they would settle for a field goal on the drive. A successful attempt brought the score to 13-9; unfortunately for them it would become the final score of the game.

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