Tag: FiveThirtyEight

How will Sunday night’s Bucs-Cardinals game impact the Saints’ playoff chances?

How will Sunday night’s Bucs-Cardinals game impact the Saints’ playoff chances?

The New Orleans Saints kept their playoff hopes alive a little longer by knocking off the Cleveland Browns this week, but their odds are still very slim: according to FiveThirtyEight’s projections, the Saints have just a 6% chance of making the playoffs this season with their 6-9 record.

But there’s one important game left to play in Week 16’s slate, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traveling to face the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday night (kickoff is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. CT on NBC). The Buccaneers have a slim lead on the NFC South division title, but their 6-8 record makes that lead tenuous at best.

If Tom Brady’s team wins on Sunday night and improves to 7-8, the Saints are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs — but their odds fall to 4% at FiveThirtyEight. But if the Buccaneers lose and fall to 6-9 themselves, New Orleans gets a big boost, moving into a three-way tie with the Bucs and Carolina Panthers (though Tampa Bay owns the tiebreaker) with a 15% shot at reaching the postseason. And in the unlikely event of a tie, the Saints still benefit from the Buccaneers’ 6-8-1 record with playoff odds of 14%.

So root for a Bucs loss or tie on Sunday night. That’s probably unlikely with Arizona starting third-string quarterback Trace McSorley in this game, but Tampa Bay has been far from special this year. At times they’ve even looked vulnerable. Maybe the Saints can finally catch a break. Stranger things have happened, right?

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Where Chargers stand in playoff picture after Week 15

Looking at the AFC Playoff Picture after Week 15.

The Chargers improved to 8-6 after defeating the Titans on Sunday.

After defeating the Texans, the Chiefs clinched the AFC West for the seventh-straight season.

Here’s a look at the playoff picture after Week 15:

  • X –:Clinched Playoff Berth
  • Z –:Clinched Division

1. X–Bills (11-3)

2. Z–Chiefs (11-3)

3. Bengals (10-4)

4. Titans (7-7)

5. Ravens (9-5)

6. Chargers (8-6)

Chances of making the playoffs: 83%

Next opponent: @ Colts

7. Dolphins (8-6)

Chances of making the playoffs: 72%

Next opponent: vs. Packers

8. Patriots (7-7)

Chances of making the playoffs: 19%

Next opponent: vs. Bengals

9. Jets (7-7)

Chances of making the playoffs: 20%

Next opponent: vs. Jaguars

10. Jaguars (6-8)

Chances of making the playoffs: 44%

Next opponent: @ Jets

AFC playoff matchups if the season ended today:

  • No. 2 Chiefs vs. No. 7 Dolphins
  • No. 3 Bengals vs. No. 6 Chargers
  • No. 4 Titans vs. No. 5 Ravens

What does FiveThirtyEight say about Ohio State’s chances of making the College Football Playoff

FiveThirtyEight has updated its College Football Playoff Predictions. Here’s what it says about Ohio State’s chances. #GoBucks

For the first time all college football season, Ohio State is on the outside looking in when it comes to being ranked in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings.

But it’s close.

The Buckeyes are No. 5, one spot behind a one-loss USC team that has another game to play when it takes on Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game.

Besides that, TCU sits at No. 3 and also has to win one more game against a Kansas State team that gave the Horned Frogs all they could handle in October. The winner will be crowned Big 12 champ. For both USC and TCU, a loss would mean the résumés will be compared against Ohio State’s with a razor-thin margin.

With these sorts of things, we often like to confer with the popular analytics website, FiveThirtyEight, to see what their playoff model thinks Ohio State’s chances of making the College Football Playoff are.

At this point, the number of teams still alive has been pared to five, really, with a very, very outside shot of including Alabama as a sixth team, but that cream-and-crimson ship has likely sailed with the Tide being a two-loss team without a conference championship.

There aren’t a ton of variables in this thing, but here is what FiveThirtyEight says about Ohio State’s chances of making the CFP when looking at a few possible results.

First, we’ll deal with just the top six teams’ straight percentage chances of getting in without taking anything else into consideration.

NEXT … Chances of top teams making the College Football Playoff

How Saints’ long-shot playoff odds change with a win, loss, or draw vs. Buccaneers

The Saints are down, but they aren’t out of the playoff picture just yet. How their playoff odds change with a win, loss, or draw vs. Buccaneers, per @FiveThirtyEight:

The New Orleans Saints are down, but they aren’t out. At least not when the NFL playoff picture is concerned. Because the NFC South is so weak from top to bottom, the Saints are still in the hunt for a division title despite their 4-8 record and last-place standing.

According to the NFL playoff odds at FiveThirtyEight.com, they’re going into Week 13’s game with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with an 8% chance of qualifying for the postseason. So how does that outlook change with a win, loss, or draw? Let’s explore:

FiveThirtyEight updates its College Football Playoff predictions model heading into Week 11

An updated look at FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff Predictions heading into another college football weekend.

We are just a few weeks away from knowing which four teams will take part in the 2022 College Football Playoff. And while there are four teams in Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and TCU that appear to be a clear choice today, we know that’s most likely going to change through the last four weeks of the season that includes the conference championship games.

It’s one thing to provide an opinion though. It’s another to actually have a predictive model built on analytics based on what has happened since the inception of the CFP to try and figure this thing out. That’s exactly what the popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight is built for.

Each week since midway through the college football season, FiveThirtyEight updates its College Football Playoff Predictions model to determine the teams with the best chance of making the College Football Playoff. We follow it every week since Ohio State is right in the thick of things again, and the Buckeyes are still in a good spot heading into Week 11.

Here is where the OSU and other teams are in their chances of making the CFP according to FiveThirtyEight as we get ready for the home stretch of the season. We include only teams with a 5% chance or better according to the model.

What do computer projections say about LSU’s playoff hopes?

Here’s what the FiveThirtyEight and ESPN models say about LSU’s playoff hopes.

LSU has reentered the national discussion following its overtime win against Alabama.

LSU, now sitting at 7-2, controls its own destiny in the SEC West. If the Tigers seal up the division, they’ll likely face Georgia in the SEC title game.

A win in Atlanta would put LSU in playoff consideration. Let’s see the odds the current models give the Tigers of making the cut on selection Sunday.

FiveThirtyEight gives LSU a 15% shot at making the CFP. With a win on Saturday, those odds go up to 20%. Win out, and FiveThirtyEight puts LSU’s hopes at 86%.

ESPN is a little less bullish on the Tigers. FPI gives LSU just a 5.8% chance of making the playoff. If LSU wins out, ESPN’s model gives it a 55% chance of making the cut.

A two-loss team has never made the CFP. It’s rare that a two-loss team even enters the discussion by the time we get to November, but because LSU is in the SEC, it has plenty of opportunities to make up for those losses.

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Updated College Football Playoff odds from FiveThirtyEight after initial CFP rankings release

Updated College Football Playoff predictions from the folks at FiveThirtyEight. What do you think of where Ohio State stands?

If you follow us at all here at Buckeyes Wire, then you know I’m a big fan of checking in on the analytics website FiveThirtyEight. I love analytics, not because they tell the whole story of what’s going on within the confines of competition, but because they at least tell part of the story that’s going on.

And while predicting which teams will make the College Football Playoff isn’t quite to that level, I’d say the folks at FiveThirtyEight have more data and formulas that I trust more than others that try to do something similar.

Along those lines, and between the same guardrails, FiveThirtyEight updated its 2022 College Football Playoff Predictions model after the initial release of the 2022 College Football rankings on Tuesday, and it did indeed change some things from before that baseline was set.

As you can imagine, teams like Ohio State, Georgia, Tennessee, Clemson, Michigan, and Alabama have some of the best odds. But it’s more than that. You can even play around with if teams win out or have a conference championship in their pocket to see how it changes all of the numbers.

Here’s where things stand after Week 9 and after all the bruhaha of the first CFP rankings on Tuesday. Oh, and we are only including teams that have a 5% chance or better just so we have some ground rules set.

FiveThirtyEight releases College Football Playoff odds. Where is Ohio State?

Five Thirty Eight released the teams with the best chance of making the College Football Playoff this week. Where is Ohio State?

We’re still a couple of weeks away from the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings, but we got our first look at the CFP odds from FiveThirtyEight this week.

I’ll admit it up front — I’m a big fan of FiveThirtyEight. It took me a while to get on board with analytics and numbers, but as soon as I embraced them as a softball coach, I’ve been fascinated with the story numbers can tell. Analytics don’t give you the whole picture, but they do provide insight on portions of the overall picture, and anyone who coaches these days should be using them in some form or fashion or risk falling behind the curve.

We’ve also been following the ESPN Playoff Predictor, and that’s all good and fun, but I feel like FiveThirtyEight has a better handle on this stuff since that’s right in the sweet spot of what the website is designed for.

So what teams have the best chance of making the CFP? Where is Ohio State who has probably been playing better than any team as of late? What about Georgia and Alabama, or the rest of the Big Ten teams in contention.

Here is a look at the teams that currently have a 3% or greater chance of making the College Football Playoff after Week 6 according to FiveThirtyEight.

Most valuable and on-brand Big Ten programs according to FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight used analytics to determine which current Big Ten programs are the most valuable and on brand for the #B1G

In case you haven’t heard, the Big Ten is in the expansion business. Nobody will confuse the efforts with McDonald’s or Starbucks, but the conference has already announced the additions of USC and UCLA, and commissioner Kevin Warren is on record saying he’s not opposed to adding more teams.

But what about the current teams already in the Big Ten? Which programs are the most “Big Ten” branded when looking at things like fit, market, and academics including future members USC and UCLA? It’s all opinion based of course, but Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight set out to rank the conference teams based on how “Big Ten” they are using those same metrics that only FiveThirtyEight can do.

Said another way, it’s a good exercise that has some interesting intrigue as a baseline for expansion and how valuable each program is to the Big Ten currently.

Here’s how it all breaks down from No. 14 down to what team is the most valuable as far as the most “Big Ten” branded school currently.

An Analytical look at the Eagles chances of making playoffs according to FiveThirtyEight

Looking at the #Philadelphia #Eagles chances of making #NFCPlayoffs according to #FiveThirtyEight

The Philadelphia Eagles are inching their way closer and closer to the NFC playoffs.

With a 34-10 win against the New York Giants on Sunday, a Minnesota Vikings loss to the Los Angles Rams, and now a New Orleans Saints loss to the Miami Dolphins — Philadelphia now controls their own destiny in the NFC playoff race.

FiveThirtyEight.com released an update to their 2021 NFL Predictions page, listing the Eagles with a 68% at making the playoffs. (Their chances were initially listed as 60% pending the outcome of the Saints vs. Dolphins game.)

The Cowboys have already clinched the NFC East, meaning the Eagles cannot end the season any higher than a fifth seed. A loss to the Cowboys wouldn’t actually close the book out of the playoffs, as there are other possible alternatives in order for the birds to have 100% security into the playoffs.

Nick Sirianni will need to call all the right plays to outcoach Ron Rivera’s Washington Football Team, again. Second, Eagles fans need to wish for another Vikings loss when they play the Green Bay Packers. Last, the 49ers must win against the Houston Texans – or, the Saints need to lose to the Carolina Panthers.

.Eagles fans should expect to be on their toes Sunday, watching from a “bird’s eye view” at the other teams playing a pivotal role in possibly making an early playoff run happen.

Two nice wins to end the season would be lovely, though it’s any given Sunday as they say.

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