There was a time that if a quarterback threw 400 passes, there was something wrong with the offense – either it had no run game or the defense was awful and required the offense to throw to try to stay in games they were losing.
Those days are over. Now 500 is the new benchmark and is the reason why fantasy football quarterbacks tend to be devalued – because so many can put up big numbers. This is a growing phenomenon. In 2018, 15 quarterbacks threw 500 or more passes, including four throwing more than 600. In 2019, 15 threw 500 times or more with four topping 600. Last season, 15 threw 500 or more passes with three throwing more than 600 times and both of the Super Bowl quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes) were in the top five for pass attempts.
Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow has thrown 212 passes, which, based on the historical 16-game schedule, would have him on pace to throw 485 times – and he ranks 24th in pass attempts. Brady leads the league with 303 pass attempts, which, if the pace continues, would see him finish the season (based on 16 games, not 17) throwing 693 passes.
While the 17-game schedule will change team and league records with the additional game to pile up stats, we’re at a strange time in the league where numbers created by quarterbacks and receivers continue to grow, and there’s no reason to think they will ever come back down.
You still have to be able to run effectively to win in the postseason, but it doesn’t seem to matter nearly as much in the regular season.
Here is the Week 8 Fantasy Football Market Report:
Fantasy Football Risers
TE C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals
At a time when tight end owners are feeling the pinch with George Kittle on IR, Darren Waller missing time, and just about everyone not named Travis Kelce struggling to put up consistent numbers, Uzomah had been s pleasant surprise. Over his last four games, he has posted more than 90 yards twice and scored five touchdowns. The majority of fantasy tight ends are played in hopes of picking up 40 or 50 yards and scoring a touchdown. Uzomah is making it harder to keep him out of lineups, and his price for daily players is going up as he becomes a bigger part of the Bengals offense.
RB Damien Harris, New England Patriots
It’s been a common refrain among fantasy owners for years that running backs in Bill Belichick’s offense don’t get the ball consistently enough and they’re all role players. Not this season. Harris has 95 carries – almost three times the number of carries for the other Patriots running backs combined (37) – has three 100-yard rushing games, and has scored five touchdowns. In his last two games, he has rushed 32 times for 207 yards and three TDs. He may not seem like a “must play,” but those numbers speak for themselves.
WR A.J. Green, Arizona Cardinals
Green went undrafted in most leagues, and there has been good reason for that – he’s fourth on his team in receptions. However, he has been targeted six or more times in five of seven games and, over his last four games, has 66 or more receiving yards in three of them. He is Kyler Murray’s go-to deep threat, averaging almost 17 yards per reception – three yards more per catch than Christian Kirk and four more than DeAndre Hopkins. He isn’t a guy you want to play every week, but he has a role in a high-powered offense, which brings value with it.
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
All the talk around Miami is the potential that Deshaun Watson will be coming to town. Apparently Tua has heard those words. After missing three games due to injury, he’s had the most prolific two-week passing stretch of career, throwing for 620 yards and six touchdowns. There’s no telling if there is truth to the Watson rumors of whether Tagovailoa will be part of that trade or not, but he’s playing like a man who fears his job is on the line. While it isn’t translating into wins, it’s making fantasy owners giddy with excitement.
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RB Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
When Cam Akers went down with an Achilles injury in July and Sony Michel was later acquired, the thought was they would be sharing the workload. That hasn’t been the case. Of the six games he has played, Henderson has never had fewer than 13 carries, is averaging 16 carries, and has scored five touchdowns. In the four games since missing Week 3 game against the Buccaneers, Henderson has 66 rushing attempts, while Michel has just 25. For what he has shown in Akers’ absence, he has earned his opportunity to stake his claim to playing time.
Fantasy Football Fallers
WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
Lack of production for Robinson has been a problem all season. He has played in all seven games and has caught just 23 passes. His high-water mark for receiving yardage in a game is just 63, he has five games with 35 or fewer receiving yards, and has scored just one touchdown. For a guy who came to rosters with the expectation of being an every-week starter, only the desperate are still playing A-Rob on weekly basis – and are getting burned consistently for doing it.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
For a guy who, by all accounts, is playing for his football life as a starter. He can’t help but be looking over his shoulder at Trey Lance, and it sure doesn’t look like it he’s doing anything but paving the road for the transition. In the five games he has started, he has three games with 190 or fewer pass yards and, in his last two starts since the open competition with Lance began, he has thrown for just 346 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Everyone knows the job will eventually go to Lance, but Jimmy G is doing his best to speed up that process.
WR Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans
People are still treating Jones like the first-ballot Hall of Famer he is, but the numbers don’t lie and speak the truth that Jones is at the tail end of his career. He has missed two of the seven games the Titans have played and, of the five he has played in, he has more than three receptions in just one of them. He has only one game with 60 or more receiving yards, and his next touchdown as a Titan will be his first touchdown as a Titan. Playing him in fantasy lineups now is being done much more on reputation and recollection than his current production.
RB Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Up until Tampa Bay got to the playoffs last season, Jones was the main man in the Bucs backfield and Leonard Fournette was the No. 2 option. Fournette took over in the postseason and hasn’t looked back. Through seven games, Jones has just 41 carries for 181 yards and one touchdown with just one appearance with more than 27 rushing yards, which came in a blowout Sunday as Fournette was being rested. He isn’t used as a receiving back, because he has brought nothing to the table this season (three catches, 33 yards, no TDs). At this point, the only way Jones retains any fantasy value is if Fournette gets hurt. Until then, he’s little more than a handcuff – and not a productive one. Nobody likes to leave the defending Super Bowl champ, but a trade might be the best thing his career.
WR Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers
In his first season with the Panthers, Anderson was a bargain find in PPR leagues, catching 95 passes for 1,096 yards and three touchdowns. He was touted as having chic fantasy star potential as an upside guy heading into this season. The results so far? 18 catches (on 49 targets!) for just 204 yards and two touchdowns. Things have gotten worse as the season has gone along. In his last three games, despite being targeted 25 times, he has caught just eight passes for 55 yards and one TD. Unless dropped passes becomes a way to score points in fantasy leagues, Anderson does more harm than good to an owner.
