Fantasy football: Where to draft Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones

Analyzing Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones’ 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones heads into 2023 as the most accomplished player on the offense, and it is going to be interesting to see how things go in the post-QB Aaron Rodgers era.

It seems like Jones has been around forever, but he is still just 28 years old with plenty of tread left on the tires. Jones dealt with a bevy of lower-body injuries last season, from ankle to knee to shin issues. He never missed a game, posting a career-best 1,121 rushing yards.

It wasn’t all great for Jones, as he had a career-low 2 rushing touchdowns. However, he was able to post a career-best 59 receptions while finding the end zone 5 times through the air.

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Aaron Jones’ ADP: 35.74

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Jones has been going off the board in Round 3 of redraft leagues, and he should be considered as a borderline low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 in leagues of 12 or more teams.

It will be interesting to see how things go for Jones. The pass-catching should continue, as the Green Bay offense transitions from future Hall of Fame Rodgers to QB Jordan Love under center. We should see Jones used on short to intermediate routes out of the backfield, making fantasy managers in PPR formats extremely happy.

Among running backs, Jones’ ADP is 14th, a little behind the New England Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson (32.64) and the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Travis Etienne (35.51), while coming in just ahead of Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III (41.58), then well ahead of New York Jets RB Breece Hall (49.00) and Baltimore Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins (50.34).

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Aaron Jones’ 2022 stats

Games: 17

Carries | rushing yards: 213 | 1,121

Rushing touchdowns: 2

Receptions | receiving yards: 59 | 395

Receiving touchdowns: 5

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Where should you draft Jones?

In redraft leagues and standard formats, Jones is an outstanding RB2 worth scooping up late in Round 3. However, in PPR leagues, Jones is a low-end RB1 who should exceed 50 receptions and 5 receiving touchdowns yet again in 2023.

Jones will be a huge friend to Love, who is likely to look to the veteran back to bail him out at the first sign of pressure. Jones was targeted 72 times last season, and he has registered 63 or more targets in each of the past 4 seasons. While he found the end zone just twice in the run game, he also went over 1,000 rushing yards for the 3rd time in the past 4 seasons.

It seems like the former UTEP product has been around forever, but he is still well on the good side of 30 years old, the unofficial point where backs start to go downhill in the NFL. He’ll be productive, and a must-start fantasy option in all formats, with extra value in PPR formats.

Jones is unlikely to last past Round 3 in any format, especially in PPR. He is likely to go off the board early in Round 3 in formats that reward a half-point or full point per reception.

He is durable, too, playing at least 14 games in each of the past 4 seasons, and he has lost just 7 total fumbles across his 6 NFL campaigns, which also keeps him out of the doghouse and on the field.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young

Analyzing Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young’s 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young has enormous expectations heaped upon his shoulder after the team traded up to grab him with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. It cost Carolina a lot of draft picks, as well as WR DJ Moore.

The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner has impressed Carolina brass with his composure and skills, and the future looks tremendously bright for the former Door Dash driver in Tuscaloosa.

However, is Young someone fantasy managers will want to trust in 2023? It’s always difficult to count upon rookies in fantasy football, especially at QB. There are growing pains. But, if fantasy managers are going to trust anybody, Young could be the one.

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Bryce Young’s ADP: 110.72

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Young might be the No. 1 overall pick from the 2023 NFL Draft, but fantasy managers have been a little more bearish about his stock prospects heading into his rookie campaign.

To be fair, it isn’t so much that fantasy managers don’t trust Young, but the personnel around him isn’t exactly Pro Bowl caliber. The team did go out and grab RB Miles Sanders to handle the run game, and the club went out and brought in veteran WRs DJ Chark Jr. and Adam Thielen. TE Hayden Hurst will also be a nice safety valve and red-zone addition. Still, it’s a bit of a hodgepodge, rather than a star-laden skill position group.

Among quarterbacks, Young’s ADP (110.72) is 19th in redraft leagues, just behind Tennessee Titans rookie QB Will Levis (103.40), New York Giants QB Daniel Jones (103.74) and Houston Texans’ first-year QB C.J. Stroud (108.54).

Young’s ADP puts him just ahead of the Detroit Lions’ Jared Goff (111.79), the New Orleans Saints’ Derek Carr (121.55) and the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy (124.72).

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Bryce Young’s 2022 stats (Alabama)

Games: 12

Passing yards: 3,328

Completions | attempts: 245 | 380

Passing touchdowns: 32

Interceptions: 5

Carries | rushing yards: 49 | 185

Rushing touchdowns: 4

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Where should you draft Young?

Where you should select the rookie out of Alabama really depends upon the type of fantasy football format you participate.

If you’re in a redraft league, Young is only going to be worth drafting as a low-end QB2, if at all. He might be left to the waiver wire in a majority of leagues, and simply used as a bye-week filler if the matchup is favorable when your primary starter is off.

However, in you’re in leagues which use 2 starting signal callers, Young is going to be a valuable contributor worth scooping up in Rounds 10-12. And, if you’re playing in a dynasty league, Young is going to go off the board, he’ll go in the middle rounds, and in rookie-only leagues he is worth scooping up in the middle to late part of Round 1.

Since most fantasy managers take part in redraft leagues, Young is likely to go undrafted in a majority of leagues with 12 or fewer teams.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel

Analyzing San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel’s 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel took a step backward in 2022 after posting 1,405 receiving yards and 1,770 total yards from scrimmage in 2021. Sure, the 49ers had some issues at the quarterback position, as signal callers were dropping like flies in 2022. But a large part of Samuel coming back to Earth was the addition of RB Christian McCaffrey in a mid-season trade.

Deebo wasn’t needed as desperately in the run game last season once a legit NFL-caliber RB1 was acquired. He also put the ball on the ground 3 times, losing 2 fumbles as a ball carrier. That likely had a little to do with a lighter rushing load, too.

So what can fantasy managers expect in 2023? Will Samuel have a resurgence, or will he mostly be a receiver with occasional rushing attempts? Remember, CMC has been injury prone in the past, so Samuel could be one big hit away from a resurgence.

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Deebo Samuel’s ADP: 33.70

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Samuel has an ADP which is putting him smack dab in the middle of Round 3 in redraft leagues, and fantasy managers are nabbing him early in Round 3 in PPR formats. While we saw he can be one of the brightest stars in the NFL, both catching the ball and running it out of the backfield, things changed dramatically from the 2021 Niners offense, to that of 2022, and 2023.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo is gone, QB Trey Lance was never really there, and now it’s down to former Mr. Irrelevant QB Brock Purdy with bust and journeyman QB Sam Darnold as the backup. While the QB situation isn’t great, the fact McCaffrey is holding down the fort in the backfield takes away the unique rushing opportunities Samuel briefly received.

Among wide receivers, Samuel’s ADP in redraft leagues is 16th, behind the New Orleans Saints’ Chris Olave (29.81), the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Calvin Ridley (30.26), the Seattle Seahawks’ DK Metcalf (30.77) and the Philadelphia Eagles’ DeVonta Smith (30.70). Samuel is going off the draft board just ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals’ Tee Higgins (33.48) and the Los Angeles Chargers’ Keenan Allen (35.97).

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Deebo Samuel’s 2022 stats

Games: 13

Receptions | targets: 56 | 94

Receiving yards: 632

Receiving touchdowns: 2

Rushing carries | yards: 42 | 232

Rushing touchdowns: 3

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Where should you draft Samuel?

Yes, Samuel missed 4 games last season due to injury, but his production was going to be much lower than the previous year anyway. The addition of McCaffery gave the 49ers a legitimate RB1, and Samuel could scoot back to a more traditional role.

Samuel had just 2 receiving scores, too, which was the least amount of TDs through the air in his 3 NFL campaigns where he played at least 13 games.

So the question is, where should you draft Samuel? If you want to win, then take him well after his ADP. If you’re nabbing Samuel in Round 3, and depending upon him as a low-end WR1, or high-end WR2, you’re likely going to be one of those fantasy managers wearing a ‘I Suck At Fantasy Football’ punishment shirts or belts. If you’re able to scoop up Samuel in Round 4 or 5, then that is a little more wise.

Looking at the receivers with similar ADP, how could you pass up a legit WR1 like Ridley with a top-5 QB, or a tremendous complementary piece like Higgins, who also has a top-5 QB? Or would you rather have Samuel over an up-and-coming WR like Olave? I wouldn’t.

For me, Samuel is definitely a top-25 fantasy receiver, no question. But his versatility and past production has him way overvalued, and he just isn’t going to see the same kind of carries with CMC. And McCaffery catches the ball out of the backfield a lot, too. Rising WR Brandon Aiyuk is also a mouth to feed, and a full season with a healthy TE George Kittle spells trouble for Samuel’s targets, too. The storm clouds are forming like a huge low-pressure system coming from the Farallon Islands into the Bay Area. Will you heed the warnings, or have your fantasy season flooded with mediocrity?

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner

Analyzing Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner’s 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner was a fantasy star in 2021 when he scored 18 total touchdowns. In 2022, he was actually a more efficient running back with more total rushing yards and more yards per carry but saw his scoring production decrease to only 7 scores — a far more ordinary number.

Below, we look at James Conner‘s 2021 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

The 2-time Pro Bowler is expected to have a heavy workload in 2023 with a new offensive system and a new head coach. For fantasy players, that workload comes with hope for the potential to return to his 2021 offensive production.

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James Conner’s ADP: 58.13

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Conner has an ADP of 58.13 in redraft leagues, which puts him, depending on the size of the league, in the range of the 5th or 6th round.

He is ranked 56th among all players and 20th among running backs. He falls just behind Minnesota Vikings RB Alexander Mattison (55.82) and Houston Texans RB Dameon Pierce (55.82).

He is right at the back end of the starters who get what is a clear No. 1 running back workload.

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James Conner’s 2022 stats

Games: 13

Carries | rushing yards: 183 | 782

Rushing touchdowns: 7

Receptions | receiving yards: 46 | 300

Receiving touchdowns: 1

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Where should you draft Kupp?

The Cardinals’ new offensive system is expected to be more run-heavy than before, and with QB Kyler Murray out at least the first 4 games of the season, Conner could see more usage than he has in his career. Arizona is expected to use running backs a lot more in the passing game, too.

However, without Murray, defenses will certainly make Conner the focal point of their game plans.

The question about Conner is health. He has yet to make it through a season without missing games due to injury.

If he stays healthy, he could be looking at his first career 1,000 yard season and could have 1,500 total yards from scrimmage and 10-plus touchdowns.

He certainly could be a fantasy sleeper like he was in 2021.

Don’t overdraft him, but taking him in 5th or 6th round is a very reasonable pickup.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

Analyzing Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray’s 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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2023 will be an interesting and uncertain season for Arizona QB Kyler MurrayHe is coming off his worst season as a pro and from a torn ACL he suffered in December.

Below, we look at Kyler Murray‘s 2021 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

He was Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019 and was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2020 and 2021, having stretches during both years that he looked like an MVP.

However, 2022 was a major step back that was ended prematurely with a knee injury that will force him to miss time to start this year and delay his learning a new offense as he tries to regain the career arc he was on for his first 3 years.

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Kyler Murray’s ADP: 148.04

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Murray has an ADP of 148.04 in redraft leagues, putting him in the 12th or 13th round, depending on the size of the league. He is dead last (No. 35) among quarterbacks selected in at least 5% of leagues.

Among all players, he is 279th.

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Kyler Murray’s 2022 stats

Games: 11

Passing yards: 2,368

Completions | attempts: 259 | 390

Passing touchdowns: 14

Interceptions: 7

Carries | rushing yards: 67 | 418

Rushing touchdowns: 3

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Where should you draft Murray?

Murray is tough because you don’t know when he is coming back. He will miss at least 4 games to start the year on PUP, but there has been no talk of how long beyond that it will take.

He will be running a more run-heavy offense than in previous years upon his return. However, considering the Cardinals are not expected to be very competitive, they might find themselves with large deficits that will lead to volume passing — even if that is against their desires.

You should expect him to be less valuable when he does return as he will likely run less.

He no longer has WR DeAndre Hopkins (now with the Tennessee Titans) but does have WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to throw to and TE Zach Ertz also is also returning from a torn ACL.

Murray should not be a priority pick in your draft, he might miss half the season if he plays at all. You can take a flier on him with your last pick of the draft and place him on the injured reserve if you have one, but it’s more likely that he could make for a high-upside low-risk waiver wire addition closer to his return.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Chicago Bears WR DJ Moore

Analyzing Chicago Bears WR DJ Moore’s 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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Chicago Bears WR DJ Moore was part of a giant trade from the Carolina Panthers this past offseason, helping his former organization scoot up for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Moore gets a chance to reinvent himself in the Windy City while working with an up-and-coming QB.

Moore was WR1 during his time in Charlotte, and that role isn’t going to change now that he is plying his trade in Chitown. And the early indications are that he and new QB Justin Fields are on the same page and have developed quite the rapport during training camp and limited dealings during preseason games. It appears heading into Week 1 that the duo will hit the ground running…err, hit the air running? Well, you know what I mean.

The great news for Moore is that Fields is an obvious upgrade over the dumpster fire QBs that Carolina used last season, from Baker Mayfield to Sam Darnold to P.J. Walker, etc. Yuck. Moore should see a nice bump, as Fields develops with a legitimate WR1.

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DJ Moore’s ADP: 52.93

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Moore has been going off the board as early as the latter part of Round 4, while mostly falling into Round 5 in redraft leagues. That’s amazing value for a WR1, especially on a team with a budding star under center. I’d gladly take Moore as a WR2 in fantasy leagues of 12 or more teams, and if you can use him as a flex option, or WR3, that would be amazing.

Among wide receivers, Moore’s ADP in redraft leagues is 22nd,  behind the Cleveland Browns’ Amari Cooper (41.97), the Green Bay Packers’ Christian Watson (48.07) and the Tennessee Titans’ DeAndre Hopkins (48.82). Moore is being picked ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ pass-catching duo of Chris Godwin (56.58) and Mike Evans (61.20) and the Atlanta Falcons’ Drake London (60.64).

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DJ Moore’s 2022 stats (Panthers)

Games: 17

Receptions | targets: 63 | 118

Receiving yards: 888

Receiving touchdowns: 7

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Where should you draft Moore?

The good news for Moore last season is that he had 7 scoring grabs, which was easily a career high. He has found the end zone at least 4 times in each of his past 4 NFL campaigns, and there is no reason to believe that streak won’t continue in 2023.

The bad news for Moore is that he had had at least 1,157 receiving yards in his previous 3 campaigns prior to 2022, but again, the drop in production was due to personnel issues under center in Charlotte, shoddy coaching early in the season under Matt Rhule, and more of a ground-based approach in the 2nd half of the season.

Moore is a fantasy stud, and he has extremely consistent. He’ll average anywhere from 15-18 yards per receptions, most likely, and Fields has to be thrilled to finally have a legitimate WR1 at his disposal.

Drafting Moore in Round 4 or 5 is prudent in PPR leagues, especially if you can somehow get him as a WR3 or flex option. In standard redraft leagues, he is a decent WR2 worth taking in Round 5 or after. Moore is the top pass-catcher in Chitown, and there is little challenge to that role. He’ll have north of 130-150 targets, barring any kind of injury to derail him. I’d much rather have Moore than Hopkins or Watson, who are in less favorable QB situations.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson

Analyzing Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson’s 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson heads into his 2nd NFL season, and things could be drastically different for the 24-year-old pass catcher. Watson burst onto the scene, basically out of necessity, due to several injuries. He took advantage of the opportunity, and is now one of the top pass catchers for the Packers heading into 2023.

However, and this is a big however, Watson could see a drop in production and/or fantasy value due to forces beyond his control. Last season he was catching the ball from future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers, who has moved on to the New York Jets. Now, QB Jordan Love is his signal caller, and it remains to be seen if the duo will have anywhere close to the same rapport.

The good news for Watson, and his potential fantasy managers, is that he sits atop the depth chart along with WRs Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed. Watson, based on last season’s breakout performance and projections for 2023, is the top Green Bay receiver to pick.

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Christian Watson’s ADP: 48.07

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Watson has been going off the board as early as Round 3, and mostly in Round 4 in redraft leagues. For me, personally, that’s quite a bit high. I just don’t like the downgrade at QB from Rodgers to Love. I think there is going to be a learning curve, as the team tries to reinvent itself on offense, and I can definitely see the Packers being a little more ground-based as Love cuts his teeth as the full-time starter.

Among wide receivers, Watson’s ADP in redraft leagues is 20th, behind the Cincinnati Bengals’ Tee Higgins (33.55), the Los Angeles Chargers’ Keenan Allen (36.04) and the Cleveland Browns’ Amari Cooper (41.97). Watson is being picked ahead of the Tennessee Titans’ DeAndre Hopkins (48.82) and the Chicago Bears’ DJ Moore (52.93).

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Christian Watson’s 2022 stats

Games: 14

Receptions | targets: 41 | 66

Receiving yards: 611

Receiving touchdowns: 7

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Where should you draft Watson?

While Watson is the No. 1 wideout negotiating the turf at Lambeau Field this season, I think there are still a lot of caution flags for fantasy managers. Watson proved he can be a very effective pass catcher and productive player in the NFL, but he also had one of the best to ever do it throwing to him.

We’ll see if Watson jells as well with Love. The early returns from the preseason are that the drop-off from Rodgers to Love might not be as precipitous, but it’s difficult to judged based on exhibition games. Once the games get underway for real, we’ll know what we’re going to get from Love. And then we’ll be able to properly evaluate Watson. Of course, then it’s too late for those who drafted Watson for fantasy purposes.

I would never take him in Round 4 in redraft leagues, although I certainly love his value and upside for many years to come, and as a dynasty player, he is an outstanding fantasy option.

If you’re able to rack up 2 stud receivers in the 1st 4 rounds, and you grab Watson as a flex option or WR3 in Round 5, then go for it. If you plan to depend upon him as a WR2, I wish you all the luck in the world. In PPR formats, Round 5 is fine, but again, I’d prefer him as a flex or WR3 rather than WR2.

Maybe Love is the next Rodgers, and someone was saying the same thing about Green Bay fantasy receivers when No. 12 took the reins from Brett Favre back in 2008. But I just think Watson is going to start slow, and there is going to be an inevitable adjustment period. Personally, I’d let it be someone else’s worry.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London

Analyzing Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London’s 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London heads into his 2nd NFL season looking to build upon a decent rookie campaign. As the 2022 season went on, London became a huge part of Atlanta’s plans, and he was targeted at least 8 times in each of his final 5 games. Fantasy managers are excited to see more.

Despite some erratic statistics and target totals in his 1st 3 months as a rookie, London still ended up with 72 grabs for 856 yards and 4 TD, and that was with some very inconsistent quarterback play, too. Remember, Atlanta started with QB Marcus Mariota, and ended up with rookie QB Desmond Ridder, not exactly Brady, Elway, Marino or Montana.

London and TE Kyle Pitts are the top 2 targets in Atlanta, and the sky is the limit for the former USC product. If he is able to stay healthy, a 1,000-yard season should certainly be attainable, especially if the QB play is a little more consistent and productive.

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Drake London’s ADP: 60.63

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

London has been going off the board around the end of Round 5, or early Round 6, in most redraft leagues. He has the potential to be a WR1 someday, but for now, fantasy managers will want to target London as a low-end WR2, or better yet, as a flex fantasy option with upside.

The thing that holds London back isn’t necessarily London himself. The big question is can Ridder get the ball to him, will Pitts be fully healthy to take some of the load off, and will RB Bijan Robinson now make Atlanta more of a run-heavy offense?

Among wide receivers, London’s ADP in redraft leagues is 25th, just behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Chris Godwin (56.99) and ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Mike Evans (60.93),  Seattle Seahawks’ Tyler Lockett (64.25), the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Christian Kirk (64.63), the Los Angeles Chargers’  Mike Williams (65.21) and San Francisco 49ers’ Brandon Aiyuk (65.63).

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Drake London’s 2022 stats

Games: 17

Receptions | targets: 72 | 117

Receiving yards: 866

Receiving touchdowns: 4

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Where should you draft London?

No one can fault fantasy managers for taking London in Round 5, and he isn’t a bad low-end WR2. He plays in the NFC South, which offers plenty of favorable matchups against some mediocre or lower-echelon teams.

However, the biggest concern is how much Robinson catches the ball out of the backfield, if the Falcons become more run-centric, and if Ridder can improve. Also, if Pitts is back to 100 percent, will he and Robinson carve into London’s target totals?

London is the bona fide WR1 in Hotlanta, and there is no disputing that. But there is still only so much football to go around, and I am not sold on Ridder being “the guy” under center. He was fine at Cincinnati in college, but as a pro the jury is still very much out.

I like London in Round 6 or beyond, and I’d much rather have him as a top-end WR3 or flex fantasy option after having 2 other capable receivers with NFL-caliber quarterbacks throwing to them. London has a ton of upside, but other factors outside of his control could hold him back slightly.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin

Analyzing Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin’s 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin seems like he has been around forever, but remember, he is still just 27 years old. He also has reached the 1,000-yard mark in each of his last 2 seasons, and 3 of the previous 4.

Of course, Godwin also stepped up his game dramatically following the arrival of future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady, now retired, averaging 101 receptions across the last 2 NFL campaigns.

It remains to be seen if Godwin will have anywhere near that kind of success and rapport with QB Baker Mayfield. While the “Bake Show” has a Heisman Trophy, something TB12 never attained, that’s about where the accolades and comparisons stop. Brady is much more accomplished, and Mayfield has become more of a journeyman in recent seasons. This could be the QB’s last chance.

As far as Godwin is concerned, he’ll be working with a new offensive coordinator in Dave Canales, and the plan is to use Godwin in multiple ways, from downfield threat to use out of the slot. Godwin’s targets should be plentiful, and his production will be great, too, as long as Mayfield can get him the ball.

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Chris Godwin’s ADP: 56.99

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Godwin is a very safe fantasy play. You know what you’re going to get, as he is a regular 1,000-yard contributor, he can score plenty, and he is consistent. In addition, Godwin has been fairly durable over his career, too, averaging 14.5 games played per season in his 6 NFL campaigns.

Among wide receivers, Godwin’s ADP in redraft leagues is 23rd, just behind the Tennessee Titans’ DeAndre Hopkins (48.82), Green Bay Packers’ Christian Watson (48.62) and Chicago Bears’ DJ Moore (53.05).

Godwin’s ADP puts him just ahead of a bunched up group which includes Jacksonville Jaguars’ Christian Kirk (64.63), Atlanta Falcons’ Drake London (60.63), teammate Mike Evans (60.93), San Francisco 49ers’ Brandon Aiyuk (65.53), Seattle Seahawks’ Tyler Lockett (64.25) and the Los Angeles Chargers’  Mike Williams (65.21).

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Chris Godwin’s 2022 stats

Games: 15

Receptions | targets: 104 | 142

Receiving yards: 1,023

Receiving touchdowns: 3

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Where should you draft Godwin?

The good news for Godwin is that he set career bests in receptions and targets last season. The bad news is that he averaged only 9.8 yards per reception, a career low, and his 3 TD  grabs were his lowest since finding the end zone just once during his rookie campaign of 2017.

While that sounds like a lot of concern, and Godwin will also be working with Mayfield and not Brady, there is still plenty to love about the veteran pass catcher.

Again, Godwin is durable, dependable and he’ll see a high volume of targets and catches again in 2023. The new OC loves Godwin’s versatility, and we should see him line up in a number of different places, as the Bucs try to get him the ball.

While Godwin still has to contend with Evans for targets, he’ll remain a solid WR2 in all fantasy leagues of 12 or more teams. If you grab Godwin as early as the end of Round 5, no one can fault you for that. In PPR leagues, he will go off the board slightly higher, perhaps as early as the middle of Round 5.

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Fantasy football: Where to draft Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts

Analyzing Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts’ 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.

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Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts came into the league with a lot of pomp and circumstance, and there were expectations he would be the next great, big tight end, perhaps challenging the Kansas City Chiefs’ Jason Kelce one day for the best in the league. That hasn’t exactly came into fruition, at least not yet.

In 2 NFL seasons across 27 games played, Pitts has managed 96 receptions and 1,382 receiving yards, but he has found the end zone on just 3 total occasions across the 2 campaigns.

It isn’t all the fault of Pitts. In 2021, with now-retired QB Matt Ryan, the tight end had a 1,000-yard season with 110 targets and 68 grabs. Yes, Pitts found the end zone just once, but he looked to be everything as advertised come out of the University of Florida.

However, in Year 2, Pitts really struggled with former QB Marcus Mariota, and a knee injury knocked him out in November before he was able to work with QB Desmond Ridder in game action. As it stands, Pitts had devolved into a TE2 before the injury, but that could be good news for fantasy managers in 2023.

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Kyle Pitts’ ADP: 68.71

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

The truth of the matter is the tight end position in fantasy football is Kelce (7.83), Baltimore Ravens’ Mark Andrews (32.25) and then San Francisco 49ers’ George Kittle (48.89), then it gets awfully sketchy after that.

Pitts had a 1,000-yard campaign in his rookie season, and he could be a bona fide high-end TE1 if he can stay healthy, and he can get just a little bit better quarterback play.

Among tight ends, Pitts’ ADP in redraft leagues is 7th, just behind the Philadelphia Eagles’ Dallas Goedert (63.86). Pitts’ ADP puts him ahead of Jacksonville Jaguars’ Evan Engram (80.08), Pittsburgh Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth (90.09), Cleveland Browns’ David Njoku (99.22) and Buffalo Bills’ Dalton Kincaid (99.29).

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Kyle Pitts’ 2022 stats

Games: 10

Receptions | targets: 28 | 59

Receiving yards: 356

Receiving touchdowns: 2

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Where should you draft Pitts?

Pitts is still smack dab in the middle of the TE1 conversation in fantasy football despite falling off dramatically in 2022. Fantasy managers know that the potential is there for big production.

However, there are still a lot of questions surrounding the Atlanta offense. Will rookie RB Bijan Robinson eat up a lot of the short to intermediate range targets catching balls out of the backfield, serving as Ridder’s safety valve? Can Pitts average more than 1.5 receiving TDs in a season, and be more of a presence in the red zone? And will Ridder elevate his play to make all of the receivers around him better?

If you miss out on the likes of Kelce, Andrews and Kittle, the second-tier of tight ends in fantasy is rather interchangeable. There are a lot of intriguing players with upsides. However, Pitts has a 1,000-yard season on his NFL resume already, and he could easily join that elite tier if his QB play is a little better, and if Pitts steps up his production in the red zone.

He is currently going anywhere from Round 6 through Round 7, and that’s a fine spot if you miss out on the elite TEs. Pitts has the potential to be exactly what he was in 2021, going over 1,000 yards. If he can get into the 6 or 7 TD area to go along with that yardage, he could be instrumental in winning you a fantasy championship. No, seriously.

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