Tag: Russell Wilson fantasy football

Fantasy football rapid reaction: Justin Fields traded to Steelers

Fields heads to Pittsburgh, but will he be the starter?

In an unexpected if not outright bizarre trade, the Pittsburgh Steelers acquired Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields on Saturday in exchange for next to nothing in draft compensation.

Despite signing free-agent quarterback Russell Wilson and jettisoning former first-round pick Kenny Pickett to Philadelphia, the Steelers weren’t done reshaping their quarterbacks room. The acquisition of Fields immediately prompts one to question not just why but which quarterback will be the starter.

It comes down to for how long, because from nearly everything we’ve seen out of Wilson in the last two-plus seasons suggests he will have a tenuous grasp on the starting gig. Fields, however, has flashed here and there but ultimately battled injuries and a slower development pace as a passer than Chicago’s brass was willing to accept.

Fantasy football outlook

Conservative-minded Arthur Smith is the new offensive coordinator in the Steel City, and the underwhelming cast of skill players don’t do enough to tip the scales in favor of Wilson being anything better than a shaky QB2 draft target. Adding the stress of Fields looking over his shoulder only further complicates this situation.

Presuming Wilson indeed remains the starter entering Week 1, it’s only fair to wonder how long it will last before Fields gets his shot. It’s entirely possible the Steelers will stick it out with Wilson this entire season and then turn the keys over to Fields. Pittsburgh has to make a decision about his fifth-year option before May 2, which seems like a lock to be picked up given they were willing to trade anything for him.

Should Fields wind up in the starting lineup at some point this season, he’ll be no worse than a matchup-based No. 2 quarterback thanks to his legs alone. As a real-life starter, he certainly would present QB1 upside in fantasy.

On the other side of this deal, the Bears now will retool under rookie quarterback Caleb Williams it would appear, and the upgraded talent acquired the past few days will put him in a good position to hit the ground running (and passing). We’ll dive deep into that one once the NFL draft comes to pass.

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 13

Six bye teams makes settling on a safer floor a little more important this week.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 13

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 5-7-0
All-time record: 24-38-3 (39.2%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74.7 41.7 20.8 150.3 66.5 16.1 25.5 88 121.4 138.8 80.3
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+ B-

The one thing I most worried about last week when recommending Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew was the possibility of Jonathan Taylor defying the odds and stealing the show, which is what happened. Tampa Bay had been stout vs. running backs basically all year, but the star back ran for two touchdowns and Indy didn’t have to throw a ton. Fortunately, Minshew punched in one of his own, which saved my bacon since he failed to throw for a touchdown.

This week, we stick with the quarterback position in a week that features six teams on bye, and four of them tend to be worthy of fantasy attention. While I’m not entirely confident in this week’s choice, he makes for a valid boom-or-bust play with the fake playoffs are looming.

Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson at Houston Texans

Even during Denver’s recent five-game winning streak, Wilson has not thrown for more than 259 yards in any outing, and he has topped out at 20.7 PPR points. A major reason for Denver’s success is the coaching staff has taken the ball out of his hands in an effort to limit his opportunities for making mistakes, which has paid off. Wilson hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6, and the Broncos have relied on the running game to help alleviate pressure. In Denver’s six wins this year, Wilson has thrown fewer than 30 passes in all but one outing, making efficiency paramount with respect to his fantasy output.

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During the recent winning streak, Wilson has averaged 18.9 fantasy points and would rank 15th in per-game results at the position (among QBs with at least four starts). He has outperformed Patrick Mahomes in that window. In this upcoming bye-heavy week, gamers lose Josh Allen and Joshua Dobbs from the 14 passers ranked ahead of Wilson. But frequent starters Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson are off this week to further diminish the pool. Translation: Our standards of what we constitute as a successful fantasy play should be lowered.

On Houston’s side of this matchup, the defense has allowed quarterbacks to average the 11th-most fantasy points per game on the year, but that number jumps to No. 7 in the last five weeks. QBs have rushed for a pair of scores in that span, and Wilson has one to his credit, too, but any ground-based success should be considered a bonus here. Removing the rushing TDs positions Houston as the ninth-weakest unit at defending signal callers in that period of play.

In terms of raw numbers, this level of success looks like 285 yards, a TD every 16.1 completions, and an interception every 42.3 attempts. The yardage sits fifth, whereas the scoring rate is a neutral 17th. Getting back to Wilson’s need for efficiency, the Texans have yielded the ninth-highest rate of fantasy points per play and the third-best yards per completion.

Furthermore, Houston has held RBs to the sixth-fewest rushing yards, on average, since Week 7, and this is a neutral matchup for getting into the end zone on the ground.

In closing, don’t feel strongly compelled to start Wilson if there’s a clearer option present. If the target is to start a solid player with a quality matchup outlook, ample weaponry, and a reasonably sturdy floor, Wilson is a low-end starting option.

My projection: 20-of-30 attempts, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 5 rushes, 23 yards (23.7 fantasy points)

Denver’s passing game has the talent, but will it all come together in 2023?

Can Sean Payton get Denver’s aerial offense in order?

Coming off a disastrous 2022, the Denver Broncos swung their second major deal in as many offseasons, acquiring a new head coach in Sean Payton from the New Orleans Saints. Payton will be tasked with getting last year’s big addition, Quarterback Russell Wilson, back on track after the longtime Seattle Seahawk stumbled through a miserable first year in the Mile High City.

While the Broncos need improvement in all areas offensively, their receiver corps will be paramount to Denver’s ability to challenge in a division that includes the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs as well as the Los Angeles Chargers. There’s a lot of talent in the receiver room, led by wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, but injuries have been a major problem for this group. Heading into 2023, here’s a look at what we can expect from Denver’s receivers.

Fantasy Football: Will Russell Wilson rebound under Sean Payton?

How should fantasy owners value Wilson in what will be a pivotal year?

The first season with Russell Wilson as the quarterback of the Denver Broncos was an unqualified disaster. In his first 13 games prior to the firing of head coach Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson was responsible for just 13 touchdowns – 12 passing, one rushing.

In the first year of a five-year, $242.6 million contract, Wilson was one of the most expensive busts in NFL history. However, the Walton-Penner ownership group isn’t shy about throwing money around. The organization hired venerable head coach Sean Payton, who promptly brought in key members of old coaching staff from the Saints and immediately began laying down the law about changing the culture.

The primary problem with Wilson last year was his inaccuracy, which had never been an issue in Seattle. It seemed like Wilson was mailing it in some weeks and that wasn’t lost on his teammates, who expressed displeasure that Wilson wasn’t as angry as he should have been about his failure.

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Will the coaching change turn things around? Payton enjoyed consistent long-term success with Drew Brees, a quarterback with similar traits to Wilson – an undersized, quick-release, timing-based passer. With longtime Peyton running buddy Joe Lombardi on board as offensive coordinator, the 2023 Broncos offense is going to look familiar to the Saints teams of the Brees era, with Peyton vowing to play-call to Wilson’s strengths.

The Broncos have the requisite weapons to be an explosive offense, with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick at wide receiver, Greg Dulcich at tight end, and the combination of Javonte Williams (if he has fully recovered from a devastating knee injury) and Samaje Perine. Throw in that the Broncos offensive line was decimated by injuries last season (since upgraded), if the key offensive players can stay healthy, there is no reason not to believe that Wilson can have a rebound season and start earning the money he signed for last year.

Fantasy football outlook

Wilson has been one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks in the league and for years was viewed as a backend QB1 who started many more weeks than he didn’t in fantasy lineups. That was before last year’s disastrous season in which Wilson often looked lost and disinterested.

Wilson has taken the offseason seriously, working hard to get himself ready for the start of training camp to take command of the offense. Peyton and his successful coaching pedigree has the Broncos in “win-now” mode, and Wilson will be critical to getting the franchise its first winning season since 2017.

Thanks to last year’s brutal season, Wilson has dropped all the way to the bottom of the quarterbacks in the QB2 tier – checking in at approximately No. 18. What that ranking does is make Wilson a backup fantasy quarterback to someone like Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow. In that case, he comes with very little risk. The question now is whether you would rather have Wilson or someone like Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff or injured Kyler Murray.

Personally, I like the fantasy upside of both Goff and Stafford more as a fantasy QB2, so I wouldn’t take a risk on Wilson and will let someone else have him. If you’re a proponent of Payton and expect a Wilson rebound as a result, drafting him as a QB to behind a guy you rarely will sit has merit.

Fantasy Football: 5 QB-WR duos to consider stacking in 2022

Stacking QBs and WRs from the same team can help you double up on points in fantasy football.

If you start Joe Burrow in fantasy football, a 25-yard touchdown pass could net you 5.25 points. If you also start Ja’Marr Chase and he catches Burrow’s TD pass, that could add 9.5 points for a total of 14.75 points on one play.

It’s called stacking, adding a quarterback and wide receiver from the same team hoping to double up on points when they connect for a completion or — even better — a touchdown.

Here are five QB-WR duos to consider stacking in fantasy football this season.

Fantasy football spotlight: RB Melvin Gordon, Broncos

Just what kind of role and fantasy value can we expect from the veteran?

Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon is betting on himself again, and this time he’s hoping it turns out better than it did when he was the lead back for the Los Angeles Chargers.

The eight-year veteran famously held out the first four games of the 2019 season with the Chargers, demanding a contract extension. Instead, Austin Ekeler emerged as a legitimate rushing threat and Gordon ended up coming back humbled that his demands weren’t even considered. He left the Chargers at the end of the season to join division-rival Denver in 2020.

In his two seasons with the Broncos, Gordon rushed for 1,904 yards, caught 60 passes and scored 20 touchdowns – solid numbers for a player who has been in a timeshare – first with Phillip Lindsay and last year with rookie Javonte Williams. In 2021, both Gordon and Williams had 203 carries in the split backfield, but Gordon ran for 15 more yards (918) and scored three more touchdowns (10).

He was set to hit free agency in the offseason but agreed to an incentive-laden, one-year deal to return to an offense that is expected to be much more potent with new quarterback Russell Wilson coming to the team after two seasons with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater at the helm of Denver’s offense.

While Wilson will add a winning pedigree missing in Denver’s pass game since Peyton Manning retired, the running game will still be a key to the Broncos offense. Even though the team is satisfied with the job Gordon has done, all signs point to Williams being the primary back in the offense and Gordon expected to take on a lesser role than the even split the two players had last season.

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Gordon has proved to be a solid player, but has never broken through to become an elite running back. Despite coming close several times, he has rushed for 1,000 yards only once in his career. However, he has averaged 4.6 yards a carry in two seasons with the Broncos and hasn’t shown signs of slowing down.

If both are healthy, Williams and Gordon will likely share the workload with the hot hand getting more playing time. Seeing as the Broncos are more invested in Williams for the future, Gordon may need Williams to be sidelined to be viewed as an every-week fantasy play.

Fantasy football outlook

Despite Gordon’s inability to reach the level of elite backs, you have to hand it to him for his ability to score touchdowns in close. In his last six seasons, he has tallied 67 touchdowns with season totals of 12-12-14-9-10-10, respectively. Even with his timeshare last season, he scored 10 touchdowns on just 231 touches.

Many will view him as a handcuff for Williams, who is sound RB2. The even timeshare should change somewhat this year but likely not enough to drop Gordon below an RB3 ranking. One can’t deny his ability to score touchdowns, and if he comes close to 10 TDs again, Gordon will have more value than just about anybody in the RB3 category.

Fantasy football players on the rebound for 2022

Which fantasy football weapons are poised to rebound in 2022?

Every season, several proven players regress and even fall off of the fantasy football map due to injury, demotion, a poor system fit, or another unforeseen calamity. Players of the fake game understandably tend to be of the, “What has he done for me lately?” mindset and may underrate some proven options coming off a bad year.

Heading into the 2022 season, we’ll explore which players are most likely to bounce back from a down year in 2021. The players are ordered from least to most important in relation to their potential fantasy returns.

Be sure to sign up for The Huddle to gain the needed edge on your competition. In this space last year, we correctly called bounce-back performances from the likes of Dak Prescott, Austin Ekeler, Deebo Samuel, and Matthew Stafford to help create winning rosters.

Fantasy football players on the rebound for 2022

Fantasy football: Russell Wilson can get the most out of Denver’s wideouts

How will this deep WR corps shake out for fantasy footballers?

One of the biggest moves of the offseason was the Denver Broncos’ acquisition of Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson in late March. While the price was steep — three players and five draft picks — the veteran provides the team with stability at a position that has been in constant flux since Peyton Manning retired after winning the Super Bowl in 2015.

Even though Wilson leaves behind one of the NFL’s top one-two punches in Seahawks wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the cupboards aren’t exactly bare in Denver where they have a trio of former early-round picks in Jerry Jeudy (1st in 2020), Courtland Sutton (2nd in 2018), and KJ Hamler (2nd in 2020) as well as Tim Patrick. Hamler appears to be on the outside looking in for targets right now with the other three likely serving as Wilson’s top targets in 2022.

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Fantasy football team previews: AFC West

Huge changes with Denver and Vegas look to turn the division on its head.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Fantasy football fallout: Russell Wilson traded to Broncos

Fantasy football reaction to Russell Wilson trade

Following endless speculation, Russell Wilson has been traded. The Seattle Seahawks couldn’t say no to a blockbuster offer from the Denver Broncos, despite recently declining a lucrative trade proposal from the Washington Commanders.

Before we dive into the fantasy football ramifications, the trade details:

Seattle receives: TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, QB Drew Lock, two first-round picks, two second-rounders, and a fifth-round choice
Denver receives: Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick

That’s a haul!

The primary focus today will be on Denver’s side, since the Broncos already have the majority of their pieces in place. Seattle’s quarterback situation is totally up in the air, even after acquiring Lock, so there’s a much greater degree of uncertainty from the prognosticative aspect.

Russell Wilson

Wilson gets a fresh start with a strong franchise built to compete right out of the gates. Seattle was in a quagmire. The offensive line was shaky, and the system wasn’t getting the most out of its best players.

Pros

  • Improved offensive line
  • Strong running game
  • Three-deep talent at wide receiver, plus an emerging tight end
  • Won’t be handing off all day after the Broncos invested so much into acquiring his services
  • Proven offensive system that has helped lead to consecutive MVPs for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay

Cons

  • Rookie head coach and a new system to learn, chemistry to build, etc.
  • Despite tremendous talent at receiver, questions remain about KJ Hamler’s health and Jerry Jeudy’s durability, along with whether Courtland Sutton can rebound to his 2019 form
  • Another tough division that is poised to see defensive improvement

Fantasy football outlook

Provided he picks up the system quickly — and there’s no reason to believe he won’t after having played in similar offenses already — Wilson is a surefire QB1. The depth of Denver’s receiving talent, even with all of their question marks, offers him mostly a push with Seattle’s targets as a whole.

Sure, individually, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are more talented than Sutton and Jeudy, but we’re not talking such a wide gap that it even really matters. If Sutton nears his past success and Jeudy performs up to his talent level, defenses will need to pick their poison in coverage. And that’s not to mention the blazing speed of Hamler out of the slot, provided his knee reconstruction is a success. Finally, dealing Fant shows the confidence Denver has in tight end Albert Okwuegbunam. He has all of the hallmarks of a genuine aerial threat.

Russ will be cooking up a fantasy feast in the Mile High City.

Denver skill players

The backfield belongs to Javonte Williams and someone yet to be named. Melvin Gordon is a free agent, but both sides have expressed a desire for him to return. If not, finding a tandem back to pair with the 2021 rookie Williams is not going to be a problem. The North Carolina product is quality RB2 should Gordon return or someone similar be added, but it it looks like he’s in line to receive the vast majority of touches, only a handful of backs will outperform Williams in 2022. Adding a legit QB in Wilson entrenches this as one of the most promising running games in the NFL.

Of the aforementioned receivers, Sutton has proven himself the most, but a major injury in 2020 and an erratic ’21 campaign will have gamers questioning if he’s capable of repeating his WR2 fantasy succcess from his season a year prior to the ACL tear. Giving Sutton the benefit of the doubt, he’s a No. 2 receiver in PPR leagues and offers the most upside for a touchdown any given week.

Jeudy is an extremely gifted route-runner, and this offense requires such from the position if he’s to excel. While Sutton probably can offer slightly more on-field diversity with his route tree and size in the red zone, Jeudy should lead the team in targets and receptions if he plays every game. As in Seattle, for as explosive as Metcalf has been, the Wilson-Lockett connection was the engine in that passing game. Safely, Jeudy is a No. 2 receiver in all scoring systems. He comes with tremendous upside and won’t be a cheap investment in fantasy as drafters chase his WR1 potential. Few wideouts in the league offer this kind of upside, so recognize there’s definitely more reward potential than not, but you’ll have to pay a king’s ransom to find out.

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Hamler, as mentioned, is returning from an ACL tear of his own and probably won’t he 100 percent until later in the year. He’s dynamic from the slot and has world-class speed, so his game is all about making the most of limited opportunities. There will be fantasy utility for him in traditional setups, yet gamers are looking at a more profitable DFS scenario here. Knowing when to start him in weekly lineups will be a nightmare as long as the two guys ahead of him are alive and well.

Albert O. flashed a few times in 2021 as he, too, worked through the aftermath of knee reconstruction following a torn ACL suffered the previous season. Finally fully recovered, the athletic, 6-foot-6, 258-pounder should be unleashed in a major way. That said, most of his fantasy contributions figure to come in the red zone. He has a little bit of Dawson Knox going on here — big TD numbers, modest, if not even low, volume stats. There’s nothing wrong with volatility as long as owners are aware of it ahead of time. Okwuegbunam is a low-tier No. 1 but ideally a rotational tight end for those willing to play the matchups from week to week.

Finally, Denver’s defense should be consistently more effective in fantasy as it won’t be gassed as much. Wilson can sustain drives and puts his defense in a position to rest up between series.

Seattle Seahawks outlook

On Seattle’s side of this transaction, the biggest losers are Metcalf and Lockett. Another player who has plenty of potential that is unlikely to be realized in 2022 is second-year receiver Dee Eskridge. Unless Seattle somehow pulls of another massive trade at quarterback, Lock will battle with someone for the job.

Not ideal.

It’s a flimsy rookie class, and the free-agent market isn’t looking so hot, either. The NFL’s oldest coach is in win-now mode at all times, so this could present a situation to go after Deshaun Watson. If that doesn’t happen, look for Seattle to inquire about whether Jordan Love is now available after Rodgers signed a record-breaking deal. Wouldn’t it be fun to watch Jameis Winston throwing deep balls to Lockett and DK?

For now, it’s time to remain patient as Seattle’s leadership navigates choppy seas. As previously addressed, the Seahawks have too many holes to fill at this time, so we’ll revisit the fantasy outlook after free agency and the upcoming NFL Draft come to pass.