The lead up to the start of NFL training camps is when the projection machine starts winding up and everyone wants to be the smartest person in the room by forecasting players to make a gigantic leap from the previous season to the coming year. Few players are in that crystal ball of hype more than Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett.
The first quarterback taken in the 2022 draft, it only took three games before Pickett replaced Mitchell Trubisky as the starter and the post-Ben Roethlisberger era was underway.
It didn’t come easily or smoothly. In his first four starts, Pickett threw seven interceptions and at times looked like he had bust potential. However, the coaching staff didn’t have a quick hook for him and he ended up repaying that trust, winning five of his last six games to help keep the Steelers streak of finishing .500 or better going for an amazing 19th straight year (finishing 9-8 after a 3-7 start).
Pickett played a role in that strong finish, but it wasn’t because of eye-popping fantasy numbers. While he threw only one interception in his final eight games, he finished the season with more interceptions (9) than touchdown passes (7). He never had more than one TD pass in any game and had twice as many games with fewer than 200 passing yards (8) than more than 200 (4).
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He didn’t offer much as a runner – after scoring two rushing TDs in his first start, he had just one more the rest of the way and had more than 20 rushing yards in just three games. His rushing production dropped as the season went on – in his final five games he had 20 carries for just 42 yards and no touchdowns.
So why all the hype? Many NFL quarterbacks make their biggest leap from Year 1 to Year 2 after a full offseason with the coaching and training staff. Pickett has done all the right things in that regard. The reason for excitement is that he has all requisite weapons to be effective. He has a significantly upgraded left side of the offensive line from a year ago. He has a strong bell-cow runner in Najee Harris who forces defenses to respect the run and makes play-action more effective. He has a trio of solid wide receivers – emerging star George Pickens, leading receiver Diontae Johnson and veteran acquisition Allen Robinson. Throw in playmaking tight end Pat Freiermuth and it’s understandable why people are jumping on the Pickett bandwagon. But I think it’s a year too soon.
Fantasy football outlook
Pickett isn’t going to make the kind of second-year leap Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence did because the AFC North may be the best top-to-bottom division in the NFL. All of them have solid defenses that can’t be exploited twice a year and games in this division tend to be low-scoring bloodbaths.
Pickett has showed flashes of talent but is a middle of the pack fantasy quarterback. Ask yourself would you rather have a veteran like Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins and their numbers or Pickett? While Pickett has a higher ceiling, for 2023 he’s a low-end QB2. Fantasy owners should hope he won’t have to play more than to cover a bye week.
