Tag: MLB betting odds lines picks predictions best bets

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (51-69) host the Atlanta Braves (64-56) Wednesday at loanDepot park for their series finale. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta is on a five-game winning streak which includes winning the first two games of this series by a combined score of 14-2.

Season series: Braves lead 8-7.

RHP Charlie Morton takes the hill for the Braves. He is 11-4 with a 3.49 ERA (134 IP, 52 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 24 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K at the Washington Nationals Friday.
  • Morton is 1-1 against Miami this season with a 5.24 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.25 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB through four starts.
    • vs. Marlins on current roster (67 PA): 3.00 FIP with a .190 batting average, .254 wOBA, .368 expected slugging percentage, 25.4 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity.

LHP Jesus Luzardo is on the rubber for the Marlins. He is 4-5 with a 7.52 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.71 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through nine starts and seven relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 14-10, with 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 6 K Friday against the Chicago Cubs.
  • Since joining Miami, Luzardo is 2-1 with a 9.20 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 17 H, 11 BB and 13 K across three starts.

Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Marlins +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-140) | Marlins +1.5 (+111)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Braves 9, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

PASS even though Atlanta is the right side because the Braves (-250) are a little out of my price range.

However, MLB money line favorites of -180 or greater in the second half of the season have a high return on investment because the underdogs are mentally checked out of the season.

That said, I’d consider parlaying Atlanta’s money line with another similarly priced favorite for a plus- or even-money payout but I’m not laying it with the Braves to win outright.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES -1.5 (-140) for a half unit only because there’s a short total and I’m not amped on paying up for Atlanta’s expensive run line if oddsmakers are projecting a lower-scoring game. Also, we are getting the worst of the number.

There has been sharp line movement toward Atlanta; the -1.5 run line price opened at +110 before it was steamed up 50 cents on the dollar to the current price.

However, Atlanta is on a tear recently and has won 15 of its last 20 games; the Braves won 12 of those games by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-122) for a half unit even though it’s an obvious trap total set by the oddsmakers as we are seeing heavy reverse line movement toward the Under, which just doesn’t make sense to me. (That’s the point, though.)

Either way, Morton has been locked in since the summer started but he still has a plus-5 ERA against Miami this year and Luzardo grades terribly in several advanced pitching metrics.

My hesitation with backing the Over in this spot is because both teams have played more to the Under in their applicable situational trends and the weather forecast predicts double-digit winds blowing in from centerfield.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (64-56) continue their three-game set at Globe Life Stadium against the Texas Rangers (42-77) Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle beat Texas in the series opener 3-1 Wednesday behind a strong performance from starting LHP Tyler Anderson who had 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 4 K.

Season series: Mariners lead 11-6.

LHP Marco Gonzales makes his 17th start for the Mariners. Gonzales is 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA (89 IP, 43 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, CG, 9 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 9 K against the Rangers Thursday.
  • Gonzales is 1-1 against Texas this season with a 4.42 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 15 H, 3 BB and 17 K in three starts.
  • vs. Rangers on the current roster (94 PA): 2.07 FIP with a .242 batting average (BA), .281 wOBA, .377 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.5 K% and 85.6 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Matt Foltynewicz gets the nod for the Rangers. Foltynewicz is 2-11 with a 5.66 ERA (124 IP, 78 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 23 starts.

  • Last outing: 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K in Texas’s 3-1 loss at the Mariners Thursday.
  • Foltynewicz is 0-3 against Seattle this season with a 4.13 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 0.95 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB in five starts.
  • vs. Mariners on the current roster (122 PA): 5.06 FIP with a .207 BA, .291 wOBA, .399 xSLG, 17.2 K% and 88.9 mph EV.

Mariners at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:04 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Rangers +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners -1.5 (-105) | Rangers +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Mariners 5, Rangers 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the MARINERS (-180) for a quarter unit only because there’s a line freeze with more than 80% of the action being on Seattle but the money line hasn’t moved since the opener.

The other reason for the “lean” is the price pushing itself out of the normal value range.

However, the Mariners have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (bullpen and starting pitching and hitting) hence Seattle being a massive favorite.

Also, Seattle is in contention for an AL Wild Card berth and Texas has nothing to play for so I’d rather parlay the pricy MARINERS (-180) with another favorite for a better payout.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The MARINERS -1.5 (-105) have been a great team to back on the run line on the road (35-23 ATS), in AL West contests (28-22 ATS), and as road favorites (3-2 ATS).

Conversely, the Rangers are 27-33 ATS at home, 22-23 ATS as home underdogs and 28-29 ATS in games against divisional foes.

However, Texas is covering nearly 50% of its games in the situational trends listed above and three of the five Mariners-Rangers meetings Foltynewicz has started were decided by one run.

“LEAN” to the MARINERS -1.5 (-105) for a half unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for 1 unit because the Mariners-Rangers have cashed the Under in four of their last five meetings and both lineups rank in the bottom 10 in wRC+ and wOBA this month with the Rangers being in dead-last across most hitting metrics.

Furthermore, the Mariners and Rangers combined for seven or fewer runs in four of Foltynewicz’s five starts against Seattle and in two of Gonzales’ three starts vs. Texas.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (69-53) and New York Yankees (68-52) close out a two-day, three-game series Wednesday at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 9-5 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 in 124 1/3 IP over 23 starts.

  • Has allowed just 1 ER over his last 12 IP spanning two starts, and has a 3.09 ERA in 11 starts away from Fenway Park.
  • Current New York batters own a .847 OPS and .240 isolated power in a small sample against him.

LHP Andrew Heaney is the projected starter for the Yankees. He is 7-8 with a 5.78 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 in 109 IP over 21 starts.

  • Current Boston batters own a .924 OPS against him.
  • Has a 9.00 ERA across 15 IP in three starts since coming to the Yankees from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline.

Red Sox at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:24 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+159) | Yankees +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Yankees 6, Red Sox 5

Money line (ML)

The Yankees swept a doubleheader Tuesday against the Red Sox and are 15-4 since July 30. New York hurlers have combined to log a 2.75 ERA over that span.

The Crimson Hose are just 6-13 over their last 19 games.

Heaney presents the risk/reward of a starter who has been tagged by hard contact of late but has also been undone by some unkind, and mostly uncontrollable, rates around the margins. For instance, at 18.5% he’s been hurt by a high rate of fly balls landing as home runs.

Still, Pivetta gives the Red Sox an edge in the starting pitching department. All the way around and in every other way the Yanks figure as the better team right now.

BACK THE YANKEES (-125).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

New York has played a lot of 1- and 2-run games. Take a PASS on trying to get them by with multiple runs to spare on Wednesday.

Over/Under (O/U)

In their last 27 games at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees own a .789 OPS and strong strike-zone management analytics.

A humid summer night and a couple of fly-ball pitchers make for a lean on the OVER 10.5 (-102).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (67-55) dropped the first two games of their series against the Colorado Rockies (54-66) and will try to avoid the sweep Wednesday. First pitch is set for 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Padres RHP Jake Arrieta (5-11, 6.88 ERA) makes his 21st start of the season, and first with San Diego. He has a 1.76 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 86 1/3 IP with the Chicago Cubs.

  • Arrieta put up a 2.57 ERA across his first five starts of the season but has been absolutely brutal ever since. He has allowed 58 ER over 58 1/3 IP (8.95 ERA) over his last 15 starts and holds a 10.44 ERA and 3.1 HR/9 over his last 10 outings.
  • Arrieta’s first start of August came with the Cubs at Coors Field, an outing in which he allowed 4 ER over 4 IP. He followed that up with a 4 IP, 8 ER performance against the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cubs released him after that outing.

Rockies RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.06 ERA) is expected to come off the COVID-19 list to make his 20th appearance (16th start). He has a 1.46 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 through 90 2/3 IP.

  • Gonzalez has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park at home, with just 4 HR allowed through 43 2/3 IP. However, he has really struggled to miss bats in his home park, where he has recorded a 3.9 K/9 and 5.36 ERA.
  • Gonzalez has faced the Padres twice this season, once at home and once on the road. In those starts he has surrendered 6 ER across 12 IP with 8 K, 2 BB, and 3 HR allowed.

Padres at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Rockies +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-102) | Rockies +1.5 (-122)
  • Over/Under: 13.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Rockies 8, Padres 7

Money line (ML)

The Cubs lost 10 of their last 11 games Arrieta started before they released him. It’s hard to envision him turning things around with the Padres, especially in his first start, which will take place in an extremely tough environment for pitchers.

The Rockies are countering with Gonzalez, who hasn’t been very good either, but they have won eight of their last nine at home to bring their record on the season at Coors up to 40-21 – second best in the league. Take the ROCKIES (+120).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

With Arrieta on the mound for the Padres, the Rockies shouldn’t have much trouble getting the bats going Wednesday afternoon. If they come up short in the end, they should still score quite a few runs and keep it close.

Back the ROCKIES +1.5 (-122) or seek a better payout and flip it to ROCKIES -1.5 (+195), as a disastrous Arrieta outing wouldn’t be a shocking outcome.

Over/Under (O/U)

This is a very high total, and rightfully so. Both starting pitchers have struggled, and neither of them are strong bets to have much success Wednesday.

Both teams should put up their fair share of runs and help push this total OVER 13.5 (-125).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (63-55) and Washington Nationals (51-68) wrap up their two-game interleague series Wednesday at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Blue Jays vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington clobbered Toronto Tuesday 12-6 by roughing up Blue Jays starting RHP Alek Manoah for 6 ER on 6 H and 1 BB just 2 K in 3 IP.

Season series: Nationals lead 2-1.

RHP Jose Berrios is Toronto’s projected starter. Berrios is 8-6 with a 3.52 ERA (138 IP, 54 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 23 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-3, with 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 4 BB and 3 K Thursday at the Los Angeles Angels.
  • 2021 road splits: 3-3 with a 4.29 ERA (63 IP, 30 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB.

RHP Josiah Gray is on the rubber for the Nationals. Gray is 0-1 with a 4.13 ERA (24 IP, 11 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in four starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 6 K Friday against the Atlanta Braves.
  • 2021 home splits: 0-1 with a 4.74 ERA (19 IP, 10 ER), 16 H, 7 BB and 21 K in three starts and one relief appearance.

Blue Jays at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:08 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Blue Jays -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Nationals +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (-102) | Nationals +1.5 (-122)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Nationals 6, Blue Jays 3

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the NATIONALS (+140) for a tiny wager – if at all – as more of a fade against Berrios on the road and because Gray is due to a decent home start.

Gray has elite talent. He’s the first-ranked prospect in Washington’s system, and 19th-ranked in MLB, and was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline when the Nationals sold Max Scherzer and SS Trea Turner.

Berrios’ teams are 5-6 this season in his road starts and he has been even less effective on the road throughout his career. For instance, Berrios is 23-24 with a 4.71 ERA (3.44 home ERA), 1.35 WHIP (1.12 home WHIP) and 2.5 K/BB (3.9 K/BB at home).

Furthermore, I’m noticing a little “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the betting market as nearly 90% of the action is on Toronto according to Pregame.com. However, the Blue Jays have been steamed down across most sportsbooks from a -175 consensus favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the NATIONALS +1.5 (-122) heavier than or instead of Washington’s money line for all the logic written above and because it’s wiser to take the run-and-a-half worth of insurance at this price point.

Also, even though Washington’s bullpen has been awful lately, Toronto’s bullpen isn’t much better so the “backdoor is open” so to speak. In fact, these bullpens are tied with the third-worst WAR in August.

Lastly, this could be considered a good spot for the Nationals who are 11-5 ATS in interleague contests and 17-14 ATS as home underdogs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 9 (-122) as a contrarian play against a market that’s barrelling into the Over currently. We are seeing RLM with most of the action on the Over but the Under has a lot more vig.

On top of that, both teams play more to the Under in this “spot” considering the location of the game and the interleague matchup.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Indians (58-60) and Minnesota Twins (53-67) battle Wednesday in the finale of a three-game series at Target Field. First pitch is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zach Plesac is the projected starting pitcher for the Indians. He is 7-4 with a 4.64 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 in 97 IP over 17 starts.

  • Threw 101 pitches against the Detroit Tigers in his last start, his most in a single game since May 7.
  • Has faltered a bit in two previous outings vs. Minnesota this season recording a 4.76 ERA in 11 1/3 IP, but has held current Twins bats to an aggregate .629 OPS over his career.

RHP Lewis Thorpe is the projected starter for the Twins. He is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 13 H, 4 BB and 5 K in 14 IP across three starts and one relief apperance.

  • The  25-year-old swingman has split time between the big club and the minors over the last three years. Wednesday’s start marks his first MLB game since May 20.
  • Spent nearly two months on the Minor League IL with a shoulder issue before making his return to Triple-A action Aug. 8.
  • Has a 5.59 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9 over 58 IP in his MLB career.

Indians at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:36 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Indians -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Indians -1.5 (+135) | Twins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Twins 5, Indians 4

Money line (ML)

The Indians are 11-16 with a 4.88 ERA over their last 27 games, and their play on the road has been a problem as they are 8-15 since June 25. That stretch started with back-to-back losses at Minnesota.

The Twins are 9-5 over their last 14 games, and many of those contests were against playoff-caliber teams. Minnesota has a solid .751 OPS against right-handed pitching. The Twins got off to a slow start at home, but they’ve notched a .798 OPS at Target Field since June 8.

Lewis gave the Twins solid starts this spring and fits into an overall pitching staff worth the value price in this one. The Minnesota bullpen has been sharp of late, recording a 3.06 ERA in August, and figures as a unit better than its overall season numbers when looking at expected-ERA metrics.

BACK THE TWINS (-105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Avoid the juice-drowned run line prices here. PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

This one brings out signals that point both ways. Ultimately, some slight lean on Twins pitching and a fade of Cleveland’s offense makes for some leverage on the UNDER 9.5 (-105).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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New York Mets at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Mets at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (59-60) play the third and final game of their road series against the San Francisco Giants (78-42) Wednesday, hoping to avoid the sweep. First pitch in the finale is set for 3:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mets RHP Tylor Megill (1-2, 3.42 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 50 IP.

  • The Mets lost each of his last three starts and he lost his last two decisions.
  • He didn’t pitch more than 5 innings in any of his last three starts and allowed at least 3 earned runs in all three. His ERA in his last three starts is 6.75.

Giants RHP Anthony DeSclafani (11-5, 3.29 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 131 1/3 IP.

  • He has an ERA of 6.00 over his last five starts.
  • The Giants are 16-7 when he starts and 7-2 when he starts at home.

Mets at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Giants -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-180) | Giants -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Giants 7, Mets 3

Money line (ML)

The Mets have lost five games in a row and are 23-37 on the road this season. They have dropped their last six and eight of their last nine on the road.

The Giants won nine of their last 10 games and are 14-3 in their last 17 games. At 42-18, they have the best home record in baseball.

Take the GIANTS  (-145).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Mets have the third-worst ATS record in baseball at 50-69 ATS. They are 26-34 ATS on the road and covered the spread in only four of their last 12 games.

The Giants have the best ATS record in baseball at 75-45 ATS. They are 35-25 ATS at home and 10 of their last 15 wins were by at least 2 runs.

Take the GIANTS -1.5 (+140).

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 52% of the games at Oracle Park have gone Over the projected total.

Five of the Mets’ last seven games had a total of 9 or more runs.

Six of the last 14 games for the Giants finished with 9 or more runs.

Take OVER 8.5 (-120).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (61-57) kick off a six-game road trip Tuesday with the first game of three against the Arizona Diamondbacks (38-81). First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Phillies RHP Kyle Gibson (8-4, 3.12 ERA) makes his 22nd start of the year and third since joining the Phillies. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 130 IP.

  • Gibson allowed 6 earned runs over 4 1/3 innings out of the bullpen in his last appearance. He won each of his two starts since being traded to the Phillies from the Texas Rangers.
  • Allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 17 of his starts this season.

The Diamondbacks had not announced the starter for Tuesday’s game at the time of publishing. LHP Caleb Smith (4-8, 5.17 ERA) originally would have drawn the start but was moved to the bullpen. He’s still an option to start as an opener.

Diamondbacks starters have a combined 5.35 ERA while the relief corps has a 5.33 ERA.

Phillies at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -133 (bet $133 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Prediction

Phillies 6, Diamondbacks 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies won 10 of their last 15 games, including each of their last five on the road. They are in the thick of the playoff race while 1.5 games behind the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves.

The Diamondbacks are coming off an 8-2 loss to the San Diego Padres Sunday but took three out of four games at home in that series. They still have the worst record in MLB and the second-worst home record at 24-36.

Take the PHILLIES (-133).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Phillies are 57-60 ATS this season and 28-29 ATS on the road. They are 8-6 ATS in their last 14 games.

The Diamondbacks covered the spread in three of their last four games and four of their last six. They are 33-27 ATS at home.

They have been playing better recently, but the uncertainty of who will start combined with the overall play of Gibson this season has me leaning toward Philly.

Take the PHILLIES -1.5 (+122).

Over/Under (O/U)

More than 60% of the games at Chase Field this season have gone Over the projected total. Only two of the last nine games for the Phillies had a total of 9 or more runs.

Half of Arizona’s last eight games finished with at least 9 runs.

Take OVER 8.5 (-135).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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New York Mets at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Mets at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (77-42) host the New York Mets (59-59) for the second of their three-game set at Oracle Park Tuesday with the first pitch scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco took the series opener Monday 7-5 vs. New York thanks to a 3-run 7th-inning rally that was the difference in the game.

Season series: Giants lead 1-0.

RHP Marcus Stroman is New York’s projected starter. Stroman is 8-11 with a 2.79 ERA (132 1/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 24 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K Thursday vs. the Washington Nationals.
  • 2021 road splits: 4-5 with a 2.64 ERA (71 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 4.2 K/BB rate in 12 starts.

RHP Logan Webb is on the rubber for the Giants. Webb is 6-3 with a 2.96 ERA (85 IP, 28 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 16 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-0, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K Thursday vs. the Colorado Rockies.
  • 2021 home splits: 4-0 with a 1.58 ERA (45 IP, 21 ER), 0.98 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB rate in seven starts and one bullpen outing.

Mets at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Giants -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-160) | Giants -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Giants 5, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

TAKE the GIANTS (-170) for 1 unit because San Francisco has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, bullpen and hitting).

For instance, Webb has been sensational at home this season and he grades out much better than Stroman in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected wOBA and expected slugging percentage.

On top of that, San Francisco is 35-12 overall as a home favorite while the Mets are 12-18 overall as a road dog.

Also, both bullpens have been mediocre this month, but the Giants relievers have a 0.57 home run per nine-inning rate while New York’s bullpen has a 1.43 home run per nine-inning rate in August.

Lastly, San Francisco’s lineup ranks in the top five against right-handed pitching in wRC+ and wOBA compared to the Mets hitters who rank 19th in wRC+ and 21st in wOBA vs. righties.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS even though my projected score has the Giants -1.5 (+125) covering because more money is on New York’s run line while more bets have been placed on San Francisco (according to Pregame.com).

Typically, the money column is a better indicator of who the sharps like, and the bets placed column suggests who the average Joe is backing.

Furthermore, I’m leaning to the Mets-Giants being a lower-scoring affair and San Francisco’s run line isn’t a fat enough payout considering New York is 18-12 ATS as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) for a one-third unit because both starters are “top of the rotation” guys who are having nice seasons, and these teams have a combined 12-25 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

Not only that, but there are several Under-friendly trends such as the Under cashing in Webb’s last seven starts as a favorite, in Stroman’s last six starts and four days of rest.

I’m a little leery of backing the Under because the weather forecast predicts nearly 13 mph winds blowing out to left-center field, and New York’s bullpen has been awful in August. But Webb and Stroman’s fly-ball rates are below the MLB average.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Oakland Athletics (68-51) continue their four-game road series against the Chicago White Sox (69-50) Tuesday at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Athletics vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago won the series opener 5-2 as the White Sox bullpen locked down the victory with 1 H, 1 BB and 9 K across 4 IP.

Season series: White Sox lead 1-0.

RHP Chris Bassitt is Oakland’s projected starter. He is 12-3 with a 3.06 ERA (150 IP, 51 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 24 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 17-0, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K Thursday at the Cleveland Indians.
  • Second half stats: 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA (32 IP, 8 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 5.8 K/BB.
  • vs. White Sox on current roster (54 PA): 2.13 FIP with a .231 batting average (BA), .240 wOBA, .371 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 18.5 K% and 90.5 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Reynaldo Lopez is on the bump for the White Sox. He is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA (20 IP, 3 ER), 0.75 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through two starts and eight relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 1-0 loss to the Minnesota Twins Wednesday.
  • vs. Athletics on current roster (69 PA): 3.07 FIP with a .230 BA, .280 wOBA, .461 xSLG, 26.1 K% and 86.6 mph EV.

Athletics at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Athletics -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | White Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Athletics -1.5 (+140) | White Sox +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Athletics 4, White Sox 3

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the ATHLETICS (-115) for a half unit because Oakland has a significant edge in the starting pitching duel and in hitting.

In this spot, I’d prefer to take the A’s First 5 Innings money line considering the White Sox have much better relief pitching; however, Tipico offers a three-way line so we could lose instead of chop if Oakland and Chicago are tied after the fifth inning.

A’s batters are first in both wRC+ and BB/K, second in wOBA and ninth in hard-hit rate this month.

Furthermore, Oakland is 22-14 as a road favorite, Bassitt is 8-0 through 14 road starts and Chicago is just 3-4 as a home underdog despite being an exceptional home team this season.

Another cause for the “lean” is we are seeing “reverse line movement” in the betting market as Oakland’s money line is seeing roughly 75% of the action but Chicago’s money line is getting pricier. It’s a red flag whenever the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Athletics -1.5 (+140) because I “lean” to Oakland’s money line but I’m not confident enough to lay it with the A’s.

However, Oakland is 20-16 ATS as a road favorite while Chicago is 3-4 ATS as a home underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a half unit because the presumed sharp side of the market is backing the Under whereas the public is on the Over, according to Pregame.com.

Nearly 60% of the money is on the Under while roughly 70% of the action is on the Over, but the oddsmakers have responded to the money column as the total has been steamed down from the 9-run opener to the current number.

My assumption is this movement is based on Bassitt being a fringe AL Cy Young contender and Chicago’s bullpen is one of the best units in baseball. On the other hand, both lineups rake so I’m not crazy about the Under in this spot.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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