Tag: Braves Marlins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (96-52) and the Miami Marlins (77-72) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday afternoon at loanDepot park in South Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 9-3

The Braves clinched the National League East Division title Wednesday night in Philadelphia. Atlanta was off Thursday, and it has dropped both games since the clincher.

The Over is on a roll for Atlanta, cashing in the first 2 games of the current series, while going 10-2 across the past 12 games overall. The Over is 5-1 in the past 6 games inside the division, too.

For the Marlins, they are still very much alive in the playoff picture in the National League, 2 full games clear of the San Francisco Giants for the final Wild Card spot. Analytics show the Marlins with a 41.1% chance of making the postseason field.

Miami has piled up 20 runs of offense in the past 2 games for back-to-back Over results. The 20 runs in a 2-game span is the most for the Marlins since totaling 25 runs in consecutive games against the St. Louis Cardinals July 4-5.

Braves at Marlins projected starters

RHP Charlie Morton vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Morton (14-11, 3.42 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 157 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 9 K in 10-8 road win in 10 innings vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Monday
  • 2023 road splits: 7-6, 3.61 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 2 HR, .260 opponent batting average (OBA) in 15 starts
  • 2023 vs. Miami: 2-0, 0.71 ERA, 12 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 14 K, .159 OBA in 2 starts

Luzardo (9-9, 3.82 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 160 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 10 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 12-0 road loss vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Monday
  • 2023 home splits: 4-4, 3.14 ERA (97 1/3 IP, 34 ER), 11 HR, .220 OBA in 17 starts
  • 2023 vs. Atlanta: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-3 home loss May 4

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Braves at Marlins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:41 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -136 (bet $136 to win $100) | Marlins +116 (bet $100 to win $116)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+122) | Marlins +1.5 (-146)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -122 | U: +100)

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Braves at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

The BRAVES (-136) are a good bet to win the series finale, salvaging at least 1 game in South Florida.

Morton has had the number of the Marlins (+116) this season, allowing just a single run while scattering 7 hits in a pair of wins across 12 2/3 IP. Miami and its fans will be super salty after Morton takes care of them again.

Run line/Against the spread

The BRAVES -1.5 (+122) have gone cold since clinching the division, but they’ll get back on track behind the Fish killer Morton.

In the past 10 games as a favorite, Atlanta is 5-5 on the run line, which isn’t great or poor. It has the division already sewn up, but the Braves will still want to build some momentum heading into the postseason. Look for Morton to be sharp on the bump and the offense to do its job against the mediocre Luzardo.

Over/Under

The OVER 8 (-122) is a decent play in the series finale.

The Over has cashed in the first 2 games of the series, while the total has gone high in 10 of the past 12 contests overall for the Bravos. The Over is 5-1 in the past 6 against divisional opponents, too.

For the Marlins, the Over has cashed in 5 straight games at home, while going 4-1 in Luzardo’s past 5 assignments at loanDepot Park.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (96-51) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the Miami Marlins (76-72) on Saturday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 9-2

The Braves were defeated 9-6 in the series opener Friday. OF Ronald Acuna Jr. left the game with a calf injury in the 7th inning with calf tightness, although he appears to have avoided serious injury. Atlanta is 16 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and already clinched the division.

Marlins 2B Luis Arraez surprisingly hit 2 home runs Friday, bringing his total to 9 on the season. Miami is currently a half-game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cincinnati Reds, who are both tied for the 3rd Wild Card spot in the NL.

Braves at Marlins projected starters

LHP Jared Shuster vs. RHP Bryan Hoeing 

Shuster (4-3, 5.26 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 through 49 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 8-5 road defeat vs. San Francisco Giants Aug. 27
  • 2023 road stats: 1-3, 6.56 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 17 ER) in 5 starts
  • First career start vs. Marlins

Hoeing (2-2, 4.04 ERA) makes his 7th start and 31st appearance. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 62 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 10-9 home win vs. St. Louis Cardinals on July 5
  • 2023 home stats: 1-0, 2.93 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 10 ER) in 4 starts and 8 relief appearances.
  • Career vs. Braves: 0-2, 13.03 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 14 ER) in 2 starts and 2 relief appearances

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Braves at Marlins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:04 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -132 (bet $132 to win $100) | Marlins +112 (bet $100 to win $112)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+118) | Marlins +1.5 (-142)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -118 | U: -104)

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Braves at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Marlins 4

Moneyline

Even with Shuster getting the start and the chance that Acuna is out, I’ll back the BRAVES (-132) on the road in Saturday’s divisional matchup. Atlanta has gone 9-2 in the first 11 meetings with Miami this season and will want to get even after Friday’s series-opening loss.

Run line/Against the spread

BRAVES -1.5 (+118) has fantastic value as Hoeing has mightily struggled against Atlanta in his career. All 9 of Atlanta’s wins over Miami this season have come by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under

OVER 9 (-118) is the play in this contest with Shuster and Hoeing on the mound. Hoeing has given up at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his 6 starts this season.

Meanwhile, Shuster hasn’t been much better as he’s allowed 3 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 5 starts. The Over is also 9-2 in the 11 meetings between these teams this season.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (96-50) kick off a 3-game set against the Miami Marlins (75-72) at loanDepot park Friday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the V Braves vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Atlanta leads 9-1

The Braves took 3 of 4 games from the Philadelphia Phillies to start the week, including a 4-1 victory in the finale Wednesday. Atlanta has clinched the NL East and is the only team to clinch a playoff spot yet.

The Marlins scratched out just 7 runs while losing 3 of 4 games to the Milwaukee Brewers to start the week. Miami lost 4-2 in the finale Thursday and now trails the San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks — who are in a 3-way tie for the final NL Wild Card — by a half-game.

Braves at Marlins projected starters

RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Johnny Cueto

Elder (12-4, 3.38 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 162 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K, in 8-2 home win vs. Pittsburgh Pirates last Friday
  • The Braves have won his last 5 starts

Cueto (1-4, 6.15 ERA) makes his 9th start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 41 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 8-4 loss at Phillies Saturday
  • Last 5 Starts: 1-2 with a 6.84 ERA over 25 IP

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Braves at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Marlins +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-115) | Marlins +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Braves at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Braves 2

Moneyline

The Marlins have been hit with some key injuries late in the year with RHP Sandy Alcantara and OF Jorge Soler recently going to the IL. However, expect the Fish to keep fighting with their season on the line. 3B Jake Burger and 1B Josh Bell have been great trade deadline additions and 2B Xavier Edwards has performed well since his September call-up

Miami seems to have a positive mojo and I expect them to carry that through the rest of the month. There’s certainly some good value with the Marlins here.

LEAN MARLINS (+150).

Run line/Against the spread

I anticipate a low-scoring, tight matchup on Friday. There are too many question marks and not enough value to trust either team with or against the spread.

AVOID.

Over/Under

The Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games and they’ve cashed the game Under in 29 of their last 49. The feeling around the team is still positive and the Fish are right where they need to be to make a playoff push. Expect a low-scoring matchup.

BET UNDER 9 (-105).

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Braves (21-10) and Miami Marlins (16-15) tussle in the Thursday afternoon finale of their 3-game series. The opening pitch at loanDepot park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Atlanta leads 5-1

Atlanta is up 2-0 in this set and outscored Miami 20-6. The Braves whacked 6 home runs Wednesday as part of a gridiron-esque 14-6 score.

The Marlins had been 10-6 at home before this series. Miami has scuffled its way to a league-low 3.39 runs per game overall this season.

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Braves at Marlins projected starters

LHP Dylan Dodd vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Dodd (1-1, 7.71 ERA) is making the 3rd start of his career. He has registered a 1.82 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 9 1/3 IP over 2 turns.

  • Was sent down to Triple-A after a dodgy start against the San Diego Padres on April 9 where he allowed 7 runs over 4 1/3 IP
  • Gave up 6 ER in 3 IP during his most recent Triple-A appearance

Luzardo (2-1, 3.48 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has registered a 1.34 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 33 2/3 IP.

  • Owns a 2.31 ERA through 4 starts at home
  • Has been hurt by a .345 batting average on balls in play

Braves at Marlins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Braves -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Marlins -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+146) | Marlins +1.5 (-178)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Braves at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

Both teams have overplayed their numbers this season, the Braves on the analytics side mostly, the Fish in terms of flat runs vs. runs scored (having a run differential of -49 runs doesn’t usually add up to an over-.500 record). However, Luzardo is the x-factor here.

The lefty’s velocity has been up and he (and other Miami hurlers) has faced a tough slate of hitting teams over the first five weeks. Luzardo has notched a 4.21 ERA across 4 career starts against the Braves, but his last start against them was a beauty (Oct. 3, 2022: 6 IP, 0R, 1 BB, 12K). Current Braves batters own a K-heavy .572 OPS against him.

The Fish have a much more rested bullpen and the Braves have dropped 3 straight get-away games.

BACK THE MARLINS (-108).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. For Miami bettors, the safety of a 1-run cushion has a bloated price.

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Over/Under

With Luzardo, the rookie Dodd, the bullpens, the net pull is on a lower score. The Atlanta offense being too far out over its skis (.347 BABIP against left-handed pitchers, .355 BABIP in high-leverage scenarios) plays along that same line.

The Under 8.5 is worth a half-unit play if the price reaches -110. Otherwise, PASS.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Braves (19-10) will begin a 3-game series against the Miami Marlins (16-13) on Tuesday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 3-1

On Monday, the Braves split a doubleheader against the New York Mets (winning 9-8 and losing 5-3), giving them a 2-1 series win. OF Ronald Acuna suffered a shoulder injury after getting hit by a pitch in Game 2 of the doubleheader, so it remains to be seen if he’s able to play on Tuesday.

The Marlins defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-3 on Sunday to complete the 3-game series sweep in Chicago. Following a 4-game losing streak, Miami is on a 4-game winning streak, with the 1st win of that streak against the Braves last Thursday.

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Braves at Marlins projected starters

RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara

Elder (2-0, 2.17 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 29 IP.

  • Has given up 0 ER in the 3 starts this season where he recorded 6-plus K’s
  • April 26 vs. Marlins: 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K and no-decision in Braves’ 6-4 win

Alcantara (1-2, 5.04 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 30 1/3 IP.

  • His numbers are inflated due to a horrible outing April 10 vs. the Philadelphia Phillies (9 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 4 IP)
  • April 26 vs. Braves: 5 2/3 IP,  4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K and no-decision in Marlins’ 6-4 loss

Braves at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:19 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Marlins -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-190) | Marlins -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Braves at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

With Acuna potentially out for the Braves and Atlanta coming off a doubleheader on Monday, I’ll take the MARLINS (-110) at home in this NL East matchup. I also expect Alcantara to have a solid outing for Miami despite some of his early-season struggles.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Even though I have the Marlins coming away with the win on Tuesday, the Braves should keep this game close. That being said, wagering on Atlanta to keep the game within 2 runs isn’t advised at the current odds (-190).

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

Besides expecting a productive performance from Alcantara, Elder has been reliable for the Braves to begin the season, so runs could be hard to come by in Tuesday’s game. The Under is 5-1-3 in the last 9 meetings in Miami.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (100-60) and Miami Marlins (68-92) play the second game of a 3-game set Tuesday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Braves lead 12-5

The Braves missed their chance to clinch their 5th consecutive NL East title in a 4-0 loss at the Marlins Monday. Atlanta entered Monday off of a 3-game sweep over the New York Mets at Truist Park. The Braves need a win or a Mets loss to secure the division crown and a 1st-round playoff bye.

Marlins OF Bryan De La Cruz went 3-for-4 and hit a 2-run HR in the 3rd inning Monday. Miami starter LHP Jesús Luzardo allowed 0 ER on 4 H with 12 K through 6 IP in the win. The Marlins shut out the Braves for the 1st time since Sept. 8, 2020.

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Braves at Marlins projected starters

RHP Jake Odorizzi vs. LHP Braxton Garrett

Odorizzi (5-6, 4.53 ERA) makes his 22nd start of the season. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 101 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision Wednesday at the Washington Nationals with 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 0 K
  • Has lost 4 of his last 5 decisions
  • Last start vs. the Marlins: No-decision on the road Aug. 12 with 4 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K

Garrett (3-6, 3.56 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 83 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision Thursday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 4 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 2 K
  • Has lost 3 of his last 4 decisions
  • Last start vs. the Braves: No-decision Aug. 14 with 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 2 K

Braves at Marlins odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:36 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Marlins +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+100) | Marlins +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Braves at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Marlins 1

Moneyline

PASS.

Braves (-165) moneyline will probably hit, but the price is a little high. The run line and total present better opportunities.

Run line/Against the spread

BET BRAVES -1.5 (+100).

The Braves should be extra focused to clinch their 5th-straight NL East title Tuesday. Expect Atlanta to bounce back and win by multiple runs after getting shut out Monday as a -182 road favorite.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (+100).

The Under is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last 7 road games vs. teams with a losing record and 4-0-1 in Miami’s last 5 games overall. The Marlins are 28th in MLB in runs per game (3.58) and rely on solid pitching to stay competitive. Garrett on the mound combined with Miami’s offensive struggles should help this game stay Under the total.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (19-21) wrap up their 3-game series with the Miami Marlins (17-22) Sunday at loanDepot park with the first pitch scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta won the first 2 games of this series by a combined score of 9-6. The Braves lead the season series with the Marlins 3-2 and Atlanta has a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.

Braves at Marlins projected starters

RHP Ian Anderson vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara 

Anderson is 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 36 IP across 7 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 1-0, Monday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Marlins: No-decision in 9-7 home loss April 23 with 5 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 4.64 FIP with a .250/.322/.404 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.6 K% and 84.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 97 plate appearances (PA).

Alcantara is 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 50 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 8-2, Monday at home vs. the Washington Nationals with 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Braves: 2-1 with 2.05 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.10 WHIP and 7.2 K/9 in 4 starts.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 2.93 FIP with a .215/.280/.331 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 21.6 K% and 88.6 mph EV in 116 PA.

Braves at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:05 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Braves -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Marlins -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+165) | Marlins +1.5 (-205)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +112 | U: -140)

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Braves at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Marlins 4

Money line

LEAN BRAVES (-103) because this number feels suspiciously low considering how much better Alcantara has been both this season and vs. Atlanta compared to Anderson and his history vs. the Marlins.

Most of Anderson’s advanced pitching numbers have dipped year over year and Alcantara ranks in the 76th percentile or better in xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, barrel rate and EV, per Statcast.

Alcantara also has a 1.62 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Atlanta, Anderson has a 4.30 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Miami and the Braves won the first 2 games in this road series so they might coast through the series finale. Yet Braves-Marlins is priced as a coin-flip. Hmmm.

It’s only a LEAN to the BRAVES (-103) since the Marlins have an edge in the starting pitching matchup and Miami’s lineup has been a lot more productive at the plate than Atlanta’s over the past two weeks.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because I only “lean” towards Atlanta on the ML and I’m not confident enough to lay it with the Braves -1.5 (+165).

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (+112) because the Over has cashed in 3 of the last 4 Braves-Marlins meetings, these teams are a combined 16-11 O/U in NL East games and 7-6 O/U when these starters take the mound and Miami is 13-8 O/U at home.

The market might be hammering the Under since loanDepot Park is pitcher-friendly, both starters are “top-of-the-rotation” guys with Alcantara pitching at an All-Star caliber and Anderson was 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in last year’s playoffs en route to an Atlanta World Series crown.

The OVER 7.5 (+112) is my favorite bet in the Braves-Marlins game.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (51-69) host the Atlanta Braves (64-56) Wednesday at loanDepot park for their series finale. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta is on a five-game winning streak which includes winning the first two games of this series by a combined score of 14-2.

Season series: Braves lead 8-7.

RHP Charlie Morton takes the hill for the Braves. He is 11-4 with a 3.49 ERA (134 IP, 52 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 24 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K at the Washington Nationals Friday.
  • Morton is 1-1 against Miami this season with a 5.24 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.25 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB through four starts.
    • vs. Marlins on current roster (67 PA): 3.00 FIP with a .190 batting average, .254 wOBA, .368 expected slugging percentage, 25.4 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity.

LHP Jesus Luzardo is on the rubber for the Marlins. He is 4-5 with a 7.52 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.71 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through nine starts and seven relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 14-10, with 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 6 K Friday against the Chicago Cubs.
  • Since joining Miami, Luzardo is 2-1 with a 9.20 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 17 H, 11 BB and 13 K across three starts.

Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Marlins +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (-140) | Marlins +1.5 (+111)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Braves 9, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

PASS even though Atlanta is the right side because the Braves (-250) are a little out of my price range.

However, MLB money line favorites of -180 or greater in the second half of the season have a high return on investment because the underdogs are mentally checked out of the season.

That said, I’d consider parlaying Atlanta’s money line with another similarly priced favorite for a plus- or even-money payout but I’m not laying it with the Braves to win outright.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES -1.5 (-140) for a half unit only because there’s a short total and I’m not amped on paying up for Atlanta’s expensive run line if oddsmakers are projecting a lower-scoring game. Also, we are getting the worst of the number.

There has been sharp line movement toward Atlanta; the -1.5 run line price opened at +110 before it was steamed up 50 cents on the dollar to the current price.

However, Atlanta is on a tear recently and has won 15 of its last 20 games; the Braves won 12 of those games by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-122) for a half unit even though it’s an obvious trap total set by the oddsmakers as we are seeing heavy reverse line movement toward the Under, which just doesn’t make sense to me. (That’s the point, though.)

Either way, Morton has been locked in since the summer started but he still has a plus-5 ERA against Miami this year and Luzardo grades terribly in several advanced pitching metrics.

My hesitation with backing the Over in this spot is because both teams have played more to the Under in their applicable situational trends and the weather forecast predicts double-digit winds blowing in from centerfield.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (63-56) face the Miami Marlins (51-68) Tuesday in the continuation of a three-game set at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Huascar Ynoa is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. Through 9 games (8 starts) this season, Ynoa is 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 44 2/3 IP.

  • Comes off the IL (fractured hand) to make this start against Miami. Hasn’t pitched since May 16.
  • Has logged a lot of strikeouts (11.3 K/9) but alongside some troubles (6.43 ERA) over 3 rebab starts (10 1/3 IP).

RHP Sandy Alcantara is the projected starter for the Marlins. He is 7-10 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 143 1/3 IP over 24 starts.

  • Owns a 2.45 ERA across 3 starts vs. the Braves this season.
  • Owns a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 home starts and a 2.58 home-park ERA on the year.

Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -133 (bet $133 to win $100) | Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+130) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Marlins 4, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

The Braves are won Monday’s opener, 12-2, and are 11-2 over their last 13 games. Atlanta has scored 6.5 runs per game on the strength of an .817 OPS over that stretch.

The Marlins went into this series off a three-game weekend sweep of the Chicago Cubs. But the club’s pitching woes returned Monday when 6 Fish hurlers were touched up for 11 walks and 7 extra-base hits. Miami owns a 5.17 ERA in the second half.

Ynoa’s return after a long layoff (and his iffy rehab numbers) brings in some question marks on the Atlanta side. Alcantara at home brings in some stability for the Marlins. And the back end of the Miami bullpen should be mostly available to douse any late fires.

Miami has played a tough slate through most of July and August. It figures as a better team than one that finds itself 17 games under-.500. A 12-23 mark in 1-run games hasn’t helped.

TAKE THE MARLINS +110.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

STEER CLEAR unless you can wait out a Miami tag closer to -155.

Over/Under (O/U)

There is just enough analytic pushback against the pitching in this matchup to make for some leverage on the upside of a low total.

BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (62-56) take on the Miami Marlins (51-67) Monday in the opener of a three-game set at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Touki Toussaint is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. Toussaint has made five starts for Atlanta. He’s 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in 27 1/3 IP.

  • Has been hurt by the long ball, yielding 4 home runs through 13 2/3 IP in his last three starts, and has recorded a 20.0% HR/fly ball rate over his five turns.
  • Figures to benefit from the “right lean” of Miami’s typical order against right-handers as he has allowed an .870 OPS over his career against lefty bats.

LHP Braxton Garrett is the projected starter for the Marlins. He is 1-1 with a 4.65 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and 4.1 BB/9 in 31 IP across six starts and one relief appearance.

  • Allowed 5 runs on 8 hits through 3 1/3 IP in his last start Tuesday at the San Diego Padres.

Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:56 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+100) | Marlins +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Braves 4, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

The Braves are coming off a weekend sweep against the Washington Nationals and are 10-2 over their last dozen games. Atlanta has scored 6 runs per game on the strength of a .786 OPS and clubbed multiple home runs eight times over that stretch. The Braves banged out 11 round-trippers in their three-game sweep of the Nats.

Atlanta has been an average offensive club away from home overall this season but has registered an .817 OPS on the road through July and August.

The Marlins are coming off a three-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs. What had been a top-notch pitching club over the early months of the season has slumped since the break – Miami owns a 4.92 ERA in the second half.

The visitors are the superior nine in this one but peg Miami as more worthy than its record indicates and peg the price on Atlanta as being too high. PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Miami has played a tough slate through most of July and August. It figures as a better team than one that finds itself 16 games under-.500 and isn’t helped by a 12-23 mark in 1-run games.

That’s a dubious mark in 1-run games, and that’s also a lot of them.

BACK THE MARLINS +1.5 (-125).

Over/Under (O/U)

In six of the last nine meetings between Atlanta and Miami the final score has produced a total of 9 or fewer runs. The price for Monday’s game is workable in that same direction but just barely and without a ton of conviction.

Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 8.5 (-120).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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