The Toronto Blue Jays (63-55) and Washington Nationals (51-68) wrap up their two-game interleague series Wednesday at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Blue Jays vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Washington clobbered Toronto Tuesday 12-6 by roughing up Blue Jays starting RHP Alek Manoah for 6 ER on 6 H and 1 BB just 2 K in 3 IP.
Season series: Nationals lead 2-1.
RHP Jose Berrios is Toronto’s projected starter. Berrios is 8-6 with a 3.52 ERA (138 IP, 54 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 23 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-3, with 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 4 BB and 3 K Thursday at the Los Angeles Angels.
- 2021 road splits: 3-3 with a 4.29 ERA (63 IP, 30 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB.
RHP Josiah Gray is on the rubber for the Nationals. Gray is 0-1 with a 4.13 ERA (24 IP, 11 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in four starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 6 K Friday against the Atlanta Braves.
- 2021 home splits: 0-1 with a 4.74 ERA (19 IP, 10 ER), 16 H, 7 BB and 21 K in three starts and one relief appearance.
Blue Jays at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:08 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Blue Jays -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Nationals +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (-102) | Nationals +1.5 (-122)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Prediction
Nationals 6, Blue Jays 3
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the NATIONALS (+140) for a tiny wager – if at all – as more of a fade against Berrios on the road and because Gray is due to a decent home start.
Gray has elite talent. He’s the first-ranked prospect in Washington’s system, and 19th-ranked in MLB, and was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline when the Nationals sold Max Scherzer and SS Trea Turner.
Berrios’ teams are 5-6 this season in his road starts and he has been even less effective on the road throughout his career. For instance, Berrios is 23-24 with a 4.71 ERA (3.44 home ERA), 1.35 WHIP (1.12 home WHIP) and 2.5 K/BB (3.9 K/BB at home).
Furthermore, I’m noticing a little “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the betting market as nearly 90% of the action is on Toronto according to Pregame.com. However, the Blue Jays have been steamed down across most sportsbooks from a -175 consensus favorite.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the NATIONALS +1.5 (-122) heavier than or instead of Washington’s money line for all the logic written above and because it’s wiser to take the run-and-a-half worth of insurance at this price point.
Also, even though Washington’s bullpen has been awful lately, Toronto’s bullpen isn’t much better so the “backdoor is open” so to speak. In fact, these bullpens are tied with the third-worst WAR in August.
Lastly, this could be considered a good spot for the Nationals who are 11-5 ATS in interleague contests and 17-14 ATS as home underdogs.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 9 (-122) as a contrarian play against a market that’s barrelling into the Over currently. We are seeing RLM with most of the action on the Over but the Under has a lot more vig.
On top of that, both teams play more to the Under in this “spot” considering the location of the game and the interleague matchup.
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