NLDS Game 4: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Game 4 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday at 6:07 p.m. ET (TBS) at Citizens Bank Park for Game 4 of their NL Division Series. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s  lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Phillies lead 2-1 after a 10-2 in Game 3 on Wednesday

Atlanta headed to Philly after a brilliant comeback in Monday’s Game 2. But that momentum unraveled quickly when the Phils landed a 6-spot in the bottom of the 3rd and never relinquished the lead.

Philadelphia set a franchise postseason record with 6 round-trippers Wednesday. RF Nick Castellanos and 1B/DH Bryce Harper each homered twice for a Phillies club that is now 9-1 over its last 10 games, including the regular season.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Spencer Strider vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Strider went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9 in 186.2 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-0 loss vs. Phillies Saturday (NLDS Game 1)
  • 2023 regular-season road stats: 12-2, 3.36 in 93 2/3 IP across 16 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 4-1, 2.18 ERA in 33 IP (includes postseason)
  • Postseason career: 5.79 ERA in 9 1/3 IP over 2 starts (2022-23)
  • Dinged by a .316 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) during the regular season (.402 BABIP in inning leadoff situations)

Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA across 22 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 125 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 3 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-0 win vs. Phillies Saturday (NLDS Game 1)
  • 2023 regular-season home stats: 1-3, 5.45 ERA in 66 IP across 12 starts
  • 2023 vs. Phillies: 1-0, 9 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 11 K across 2 starts (including Saturday)
  • Postseason career: 2-0, 0.98 ERA in 18 1/3 IP across 4 starts and 2 relief appearances (2022-23)

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Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 8:58 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Braves -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+110) | Phillies +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

The Phillies are on a roll, but Strider makes for enough of an antidote for the back-against-the-wall Braves. He has excellent numbers against Philadelphia, and the Atlanta offense has a good history against lefty pitchers, logging and MLB-best .870 OPS in the regular season.

Green check marks and red Xs are filling both columns in this one.

STEER CLEAR.

Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies play a lot of 1-run games. PHILADEPHIA +1.5 (-130) is a nice price for a game with an attractive Under. Watch for movement toward Philly, though. Grab this price at -130; pass above -135.

Over/Under

Both starters have expected-ERA figures lower than surface numbers in the regular season. The culprits? The .402 inning lead-off BABIP yielded by Strider (those situations have a large effect on run probabilities and are a hidden clutch situation in analysis), while Suarez was undone by a .327 BABIP overall (.333 when batters leading off an inning, .313 in high-leverage situations).

On a cool evening in Philadelphia with the back ends of both bullpens rested, TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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NLDS Game 3: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Game 3 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies head to the City of Brotherly Love to untangle their NL Division Series. First pitch in Wednesday’s Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 5:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s  lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Tied 1-1

Atlanta heads to Philly after a brilliant comeback — complete with a wild, game-ending double-play — in Monday’s Game 2. Home runs by C Travis d’Arnaud and 3B Austin Riley helped the Braves battle back from a 4-0 deficit in an eventual 5-4 triumph.

Monday’s setback snapped a 4-game Philadelphia winning streak. Dating back to the regular season, the Phillies have lost 11 games since Sept. 8 and 7 of those have been by 1-run margins.

Braves at Phillies projected starters

RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Elder went 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA across 31 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 174 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 2 K in 7-6 win vs. Chicago Cubs Sept. 26
  • 2023 regular-season road stats: 5-3, 4.05 ERA in 80 IP across 14 starts
  • Career starts vs. Phillies: 0-0, 3.38 ERA in 10 2/3 IP (2 starts in 2023)
  • Making his 1st postseason start

Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-1 win vs. Miami Marlins Wednesday (NLWCS Game 2)
  • 2023 regular-season home stats: 6-3, 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 IP across 14 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 2-0, 2.10 ERA in 30 IP
  • Postseason: 3-2, 3.86 ERA in 32 2/3 IP (2022-23)

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Braves at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 1:53 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-185) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

The Phillies are a sliver of a lean in a vacuum, but the starting pitching is the big tilt for this match-up in Game 3. Elder is making his playoff debut, and his surface numbers in the regular season were suspect due to a .275 batting average on balls in play and a .255 BABIP with runners in scoring position.

The Braves hurler is also making this start on extended rest. During the regular season, he clocked a 3.39 ERA on 4-day rest. a 3.42 ERA on 5-day rest and a 5.83 ERA when pitching on 6-plus days’ rest.

Nola was a bit unlucky in the regular season with 15.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard. A cooled-off Philadelphia evening would not hurt his prospects for this one, but expect better control of the long ball for a pitcher who has been less frequently barreled up over the last month or so. Nola was also undone by a .340 BABIP with runners in scoring position in the regular season.

Nola was solid last week against Miami. He gives the Phils value at -130 or better.

Grab the FanDuel Sportsbook on this one: TAKE THE PHILLIES (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies play a lot of 1-run games. AVOID the cushion proposition here.

Over/Under

No leverage on either side here: PASS.

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NLDS Game 2: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves NLDS Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves continue their NL Division Series with Game 2 on Monday. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 6:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Phillies lead 1-0

Philadelphia won the NLDS opener 3-0 on Saturday. The Phillies advanced to the NLDS with a 2-0 sweep in an NL Wild Card Series against the Miami Marlins. The Phillies are 12-4 since Sept. 18, including 2 wins in a 3-game set vs. the Braves in Atlanta from Sept. 18-20.

Bolstered by baseball’s top offense (5.85 runs per game), the NL East-champion Braves registered the best record in Major League Baseball during the regular season. However, Atlanta was held to just 5 singles in Saturday’s setback.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Max Fried

Wheeler went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 192 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 4-1 home victory vs. Miami Marlins Tuesday (NLWS Game 1)
  • 2023 Road stats: 8-4, 3.16 ERA in 102 2/3 IP across 17 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Braves (regular season): 3-1, 3.09 ERA in 32 IP (2022-23)
  • Career in postseason: 2-3, 2.55 ERA in 42 1/3 IP over 7 starts (2022-23)

Fried went 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA across 14 regular-season starts. He registered a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 77 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K in 10-3 win at Washington Nationals Sept. 21
  • Finished the regular season on the Injured List due to a blister on his left index finger
  • 2023 home stats: 2-1, 3.86 ERA in 30 1/3 IP across 5 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies: 4-4, 3.62 ERA in 79 2/3 IP across 13 starts and 6 relief appearances
  • Career in postseason: 2-4, 4.43 ERA in 61 IP across 10 starts and 8 relief appearances (2018-22)

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated Sunday at 8:06 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

Wheeler logged a sub-3.00 ERA each year from 2020-22. His ERA was higher this season but perhaps deceivingly so due to a .337 batting average on balls in play when opposing runners were in scoring position. The Phillies righty is a seasoned veteran with a strong October history, and he’s coming off a playoff start last week. Including last week’s Wild Card start against Miami, Wheeler owns a 2.28 ERA over his last 23 2/3 IP.

Fried has had a long layoff, so the October mound jitters may not be an apples-to-apples comparison.

The Phils are on a roll and feeling confident.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the best price on the visitors for this one: BACK PHILADELPHIA (+134).

Run line/Against the spread

Philadelphia tends to play in a ton of 1-run games, but we should want a lower price to investigate a Run Line play here.

PASS.

Over/Under

No lean either way: PASS.

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NLDS Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves open their NL Division Series with Game 1 Saturday. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 6:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s  lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Braves won 8-5

Philadelphia advanced to the NLDS with a 2-0 sweep in an NL Wild Card Series against the Miami Marlins. Including postseason and since Sept. 18, the Phillies are 11-4. That stretch opened with Philadelphia taking 2 of 3 from the Braves in Atlanta Sept. 18-20.

The NL East-champion Braves registered the best record in Major League Baseball during the regular season. The wins were more tilted to the club’s offensive prowess: Atlanta led MLB in scoring (5.85 runs per game). The Braves’ 4.42 RPG allowed ranked 14th. Since Sept. 11, Atlanta pitching has been tagged with a 6.08 ERA.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA in the regular season. He logged a 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 125 innings across 22 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 4 K in 7-6 home victory vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 27
  • 2023 road stats: 3-3, 2.75 ERA in 59 IP
  • Career vs. Braves (regular season): 2-2, 3.00 ERA in 48 IP
  • Owns a 1.23 ERA across 14 2/3 postseason innings

Strider went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 32 starts. He authored a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9 in 186 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 7 K in 5-3 home victory vs. Washington Nationals last Saturday
  • 2023 home stats: 8-3, 4.35 ERA in 93 IP
  • Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 8-0, 1.90 ERA in 47 1/3 IP
  • Only postseason appearance: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 9-1 loss at Phillies Oct. 14, 2022

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 7:03 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-115) | Braves -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

Nobody hits lefty pitching better than the Braves. Atlanta clubbed an .870 OPS against port-siders during the regular season.

Strider had a solid season line; he was deserving of even better. The young right-hander was partly dinged by a .316 batting average on balls in play. But drilling down, we find that Strider was really behind the 8-ball in clutch situations. In inning-leadoff situations, he yielded a .402 BABIP. In all high-leverage scenarios, he was tagged by a .368 BIP.

Atlanta was in this position last year and fell to these Phillies in 4 games. This season, the Braves outscored the Phils 74-58.

If you’re the type of bettor who can’t lay $21 to win $10, this may not be the play for you, but there is value here. Getting Atlanta priced under -215 is real leverage. BACK THE BRAVES (-210).

Run line/Against the spread

Some bettors may like the -1.5-run action more. That’s the side if you don’t want to stick your neck out on the moneyline. But there is risk here, too; just a different kind. Good pitching plus rested bullpens plus a Philadelphia club that has played 53 one-run games (regular season) makes for risk of a tight, low-scoring October affair. PASS.

Over/Under

No lean either way: PASS.

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Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (82-76) and Atlanta Braves (102-56) meet Thursday in the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 3-2

Chicago lost 6-5 in 10 innings Wednesday and 7-6 Tuesday in the series opener, despite leading both games midway through. Will those collapses be something Chicago fans have to live in an offseason that starts Monday? Or can the Cubs — now tied with the Miami Marlins for the 3rd-and-final NL Wild Card berth — bounce back and finish strong?

Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6 games. That’s a welcome turnaround for the ball club that still owns the best record in the league. The Braves had stumbled through much of September. They were just 7-10 across their 17 games immediately prior to their 5-1 run.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP A.J. Smith-Shawver

Stroman (10-8, 3.88 ERA) makes his 25th start and 27th appearance. He has notched a 1.25 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 134 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 3 ER, 5H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-3 home win vs. Colorado Rockies Saturday
  • 2023 Road stats: 4-2, 3.82 ERA in 61 1/3 IP across 11 starts and 2 relief appearances
  • Last 5 starts vs. Braves: 2-2, 3.09 ERA in 23 2/3 IP  (2019-22)
  • Activated Sept. 15 after a 6-week stay on the IL due to hip and rib-cage injuries. Made 2 relief appearances before his Saturday start.
  • Will likely be followed by RHP Javier Assad, who was effective in bulk relief Saturday. Assad owns a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 105 2/3 swingman innings (10 starts, 20 relief appearances)

Smith-Shawver (1-0, 4.57 ERA) makes his 5th start and 6th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 21 2/3 IP.

  • Making his 1st MLB start since July 30; recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett, where he threw 16 2/3 innings in and around a shoulder injury
  • 2023 Home stats: 3.38 ERA in 16 IP across 3 starts
  • Has never faced the Cubs
  • Has benefited from a .179 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:18 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Cubs +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Cubs 5

Moneyline

There are too many gray-area concerns for the pitching on both sides. After 2 hard-fought games in this series, neither side is putting its best foot forward here.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

No lean here either way: PASS.

Over/Under

The total has gone Over in 7 of Atlanta’s last 8 games and 4 of the club’s last 5 games against the Cubs.

With Stroman being a question mark as he returns from a recent injury and Assad and Smith-Shawver having support numbers that do not match better surface figures, there is some all-around fade to the pitching in this contest. Add in fatigued bullpens after a pair of 1-run games.

BACK THE OVER 9.5 (+100). Consider moving fast on a price that figures to move higher, chipping away at value.

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Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (82-75) and Atlanta Braves (101-56) meet Wednesday in the middle contest of a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 2-2

Chicago led Tuesday’s series opener 6-0 before coughing up 7 runs over the 6th, 7th and 8th innings and losing 7-6. The loss snapped a 3-game win streak, but the Chicago offense stayed on a roll. The Cubs have scored 7.00 runs per game on the strength of a .915 OPS since Sept. 19. Chicago is 40-28 with a plus-74 run differential in the 2nd half.

Atlanta has won 4 of its last 5 games, but it’s a ball club that has scuffled a bit in September. With Tuesday’s win, the Braves are a level 11-11 since Sept. 3.

The Cubs are in the 3rd-and-final NL Wild Card spot, half a game ahead of the Miami Marlins and 1 1/2 games up on the Cincinnati Reds. The Braves have cruised to the NL East flag and are likely to have the best record in the NL. They lead the Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 games in that department.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Darius Vines

Taillon (8-10, 5.27 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 144 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 6-0 home win vs. Colorado Rockies Friday
  • 2023 Road stats: 4-4, 5.56 ERA in 66 1/3 IP across 13 starts
  • Career starts vs. Braves: 1-0, 2.25 ERA in 12 IP over 2 starts (2018-21)
  • Logged a 6.15 in the season’s 1st half but so far owns a 3.96 mark in the 2nd
  • Has yielded just a .698 OPS in September. The final month of the regular season is his best month historically (.669 OPS allowed)

Vines (1-0, 4.4 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 5th appearance. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 14 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-3 win at Colorado Rockies Aug. 30
  • 2023 Home stats: 3.60 ERA in 2 relief appearances
  • Has never faced the Cubs as a starter
  • Has benefited from a .227 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:33 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Cubs +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Cubs 4

Moneyline

Chicago has a run differential that says it’s capable of another 30-35 points on its winning percentage. The Cubs have been hurt by a 21-22 mark in 1-run games. Betting value can often be found by seeking close-game records that don’t match the larger picture of a team.

Atlanta is the better club but is playing for a bit less in the postseason picture. Figure Taillon as having some rate stats that have unfairly pushed his ERA upward.

Over its last 11 series when losing the 1st game, Chicago has gone 9-2 in the 2nd.

BACK THE CUBS (+135).

Run line/Against the spread

The lean is with the Cubs, but the value in an underdog is dinged a bit with a high total. PASS.

Over/Under

The Over has cashed in Atlanta games at a 57.8% mark — only the Dodgers have seen a higher percentage. Braves games have hit the Over in 8 of the team’s last 10 games at home, 6 of their last 7 overall and 7 of their last 10 home games against the Cubs.

However, figure Taillon as a pushback against that lean. Ditto the Cubs offense, which is likely a bit overcooked with a .305 overall BABIP and a .hefty .326 BABIP with runners in scoring position.

PASS on the current offering. Consider circling back and seeking a level-priced (-110) 10 instead of 10.5.

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Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (82-74) and Atlanta Braves (100-56) tangle in the opener of a 3-game set Tuesday at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS) Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 2-1

Chicago swept the Colorado Rockies over the weekend to remain involved in the NL Wild Card discussion moving into the final week of the regular season. The Cubs head into Tuesday tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final 2 playoff spots, 1 game ahead of the Miami Marlins and 2 1/2 games up on the Cincinnati Reds. Chicago is 40-27 with a plus-75 run differential in the 2nd half.

The Braves are in no frantic push to make the postseason. They have cruised to the NL East flag and likely to the best record in the NL as they lead the Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 1/2 games. However, Atlanta has scuffled a bit in September, going just 10-11 since Sept. 3 despite winning 3 of its last 4 games.

Cubs at Braves projected starters

LHP Justin Steel vs. RHP Bryce Elder

Steele (16-5, 3.00 ERA) makes his 30th start this season. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 168 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 13-7 home loss vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday
  • 2023 Road stats: 4-2, 3.55 ERA in 66 IP across 11 starts
  • Career starts vs. Braves: 2-0, 4.35 ERA in 10 1/3 IP over 2 starts (2022-23)

Elder (12-4, 3.50 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 171 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 0 K in 6-5 home loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday
  • 2023 Home stats: 7-1, 3.26 ERA in 91 IP across 16 starts
  • Faced the Cubs in 1 other start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 7 H, 7 R (5 ER), 3 BB, 3 K on Aug. 5

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Cubs at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Cubs at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Cubs 4

Moneyline

The sides are fairly priced here. Atlanta is the better club but not worth 2-to-1 type odds based on the starting pitcher match-up. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Same as above: PASS.

Over/Under

The Over has cashed in Atlanta games at a 57.5% mark — only the Dodgers have seen a better percentage. Braves games have hit the Over in 7 of the team’s last 9 games at home, 5 of their last 6 overall and 6 of their last 9 home games against the Cubs.

Four of the last 6 Chicago games have hit the Over. The Over cashed twice the last time the Cubs faced the Braves (Aug. 4-6): the 2 Overs were in games pitches by Steele and Elder.

Steele has been a bit fortunate with a 9.4 home runs/fly balls rate this season. He’s up against an Atlanta offense which is the best in baseball against left-handers (.873 OPS). He’s getting his innings count well past previously established norms, and his last 2 starts — both shaky — could well be a sign of fatigue.

Elder has not been in good form of late.

BACK THE OVER 9.5 (+100).

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Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (97-55) and Washington Nationals (68-85) begin a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Nationals Park is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 4-2

Atlanta has lost 5 of its last 6 games allowing nearly 9 runs per game over this stretch. They come to the nation’s capital for the 1st time since April 2 and will play the Nationals 7 times over the last 10 games of the season. The Braves have already clinched the N.L. East.

The Nationals have won 2 of the 1st 3 games of their 7-game homestand. Their series victory over the Chicago White Sox was their 1st at home since Aug. 20. Washington is 33-44 at Nationals Park this season.

Braves at Nationals projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Jake Irvin

Fried (7-1, 2.64 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 71 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-6 road victory at the Philadelphia Phillies on Sept. 12
  • 2023 road stats: 5-0, 1.74 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 8 ER), .219 opponent batting average (OBA) in 8 starts
  • 2023 vs. Nationals: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 7-2 road win March 30

Irvin (3-6, 4.34 ERA) will make his 24th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 118 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 6 K in a 5-3 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Friday
  • 2023 home stats: 2-4, 4.10 ERA (83 1/3 IP, 38 ER), .241 OBA in 16 starts
  • Has never faced the Braves as a starter

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Braves at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:51 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -2.5 (+105) | Nationals +2.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Braves at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Nationals 2

Moneyline

PASS.

The Braves will win this game but I’m not going to bet 2 1/2 units to win back 1. That’s just never a good bet anyway you slice it.

Run line/Against the spread

BET BRAVES -2.5 (+105).

You don’t see the -2.5 run line very often when it comes to MLB games. I don’t mind taking the extra run in this matchup.

Fried has been stellar on the road this season. And since 2021, he is 5-2 with a 4.14 ERA against the Nationals. In Atlanta’s 4 wins over Washington this season, they have won by multiple runs in 3 of them.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 9 (+100).

I love that you are getting plus odds on this bet. In their 7 meetings this season, the total runs scored has been 9 or less in 6 of them.

The Nationals have also been under this total in 5 of their last 6 games.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (82-68) and Atlanta Braves (96-54) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Tuesday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 7-4

The Phillies won 7-1 as -109 favorites as the Under (9.5) cashed in the series opener Monday. DH Kyle Schwarber hit a 483-foot, 2-run HR in the 6th inning, and Philadelphia won for the 3rd time in its last 4 games. The Phillies have a 3½-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the top NL Wild Card spot.

The Braves tied their season high for consecutive losses after dropping their 4th straight game Monday. However, Atlanta has secured a bye in the postseason and home field in the NLDS after the Milwaukee Brewers dropped a 1-0 decision at the St. Louis Cardinals.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sánchez vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Sánchez (2-4, 3.40 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 87 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 4-1 home loss vs. Braves Wednesday
  • 2023 road stats: 0-0, 1.29 ERA (21 IP, 3 ER) in 4 starts
  • Career vs. Braves: 0-1, 3.86 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance

Strider (17-5, 3.73 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9 in 169 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K in Wednesday’s victory at Phillies
  • 2023 home stats: 6-3, 4.33 ERA (81 IP, 39 ER) in 14 starts
  • 2023 vs. Phillies: 3-0, 1.89 ERA (19 IP, 4 ER) in 3 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 7-0, 1.56 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 7 ER) in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:51 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Braves -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 2

Moneyline

It’s unlikely that the Braves (-225) will lose back-to-back home games vs. the Phillies, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the moneyline when Atlanta should win by multiple runs.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves are 26-17 on the run line this season in divisional matchups, according to TeamRankings.com. They’ve also won 14 of Strider’s last 19 starts by multiple runs.

The Phillies are an MLB-worst 33-48 on the run line this year after a win and have struggled vs. Strider in the regular season.

BET BRAVES -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

Strider has allowed 1 or fewer ER in 4 of his last 6 starts, and Sánchez has allowed 3 or fewer in 14 of his 16 outings this season. The Under is 41-32-8 (56.2%) this year when the Phillies are coming off a win and should hit again Tuesday with Strider on the mound for the Braves.

BET UNDER 9 (-115).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (81-68) and Atlanta Braves (96-53) open up a 3-game set at Truist Park Monday. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 7-3

The Phillies took 2 of 3 on the road at the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend but have still dropped 6 of their last 10 games. Philadelphia had lost 3 of 4 games to the Atlanta Braves in the previous series. The Phillies are still 3 1/2 games up on the rest of the fray for the top NL Wild Card spot. They need to remain focused though because there are 5 teams within 6 1/2 games of them.

Atlanta was swept in a 3-game series at the Miami Marlins over the weekend, allowing 36 runs in the series. The Braves have already clinched the division and are 4 1/2 games up on the Los Angeles Dodgers for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Wheeler (11-6, 3.70 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 175 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K Tuesday against the Braves
  • Last 5 regular season starts vs. Braves: 3-0, 3.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 41 K in 33 IP

Wright (0-2, 7.48 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.89 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 21 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K last Monday against Phillies
  • Last 5 regular season starts vs. Phillies: 2-3, 5.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 21 K in 28 IP

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Braves +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Braves 5

Moneyline

Wheeler doesn’t have many back-to-back rough outings, and the Phils are facing a guy who is making just his 2nd start since May. The Phillies have more to play for, and the Braves have been absolutely shellacked the last 3 days.

I’m taking the PHILLIES (-105).

Run line/Against the spread

I like the Braves side here, but not the price.

PASS.

Over/Under

The Phillies are 6-4 O/U over the last 10, and the Braves are 8-2. The Over is 5-4-1 in the last 10 meetings between the teams, and the Over cashed in 3 of the 4 meetings last week. Wheeler could always hurl a gem to cash the Under, but all the momentum says we’re going Over.

Take the OVER 9.5 (-105).

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