Luka Garza’s NBA decision could be very significant for the Badgers

The best player in the Big Ten Conference has his NBA decision looming

The Big Ten Conference is gearing up for another year on top of the college basketball world, and the Badgers have plans to be on top of the conference in 2021. A common theme among the way-too-early projections for college basketball rankings see Iowa playing second fiddle to Wisconsin in top-25 lists among a variety of major networks. The Badgers and the Hawkeyes have consistently been projected to be top-10 teams next season. Although no coach or player wants to focus on what other teams and players are doing, Iowa basketball recently made news that could have a major effect on Big Ten supremacy.

The battle for the Big Ten runs through Iowa City and Madison in 2021, although the path could be come much clearer for the Badgers given the results of a pending decision. Iowa star Luka Garza recently made headlines with a decision on his future. The 2019-20 Big Ten Player of the Year has decided to enter the NBA Draft without losing his senior season eligibility, per his Twitter account. “If it ends up not being the right time to make the move to the NBA, I’m excited about the potential of what my senior season as a Hawkeye could have in store,” Garza said via Twitter.

 

The Iowa center had a career junior season in which he averaged 23.9 points per game and 9.8 rebounds in an award-filled campaign. Garza would not only be the popular pick to repeat as Big Ten Player of the Year, but also the clear favorite to take home the Wooden Award for best college basketball player in the nation, an honor that he narrowly missed out on this year when Dayton star Obi Toppin took home the hardware. As the biggest pre-season threat to the Badgers repeating as Big Ten Champions, the Hawkeyes would certainly look extremely different without their best player.

So how does this decision work for Garza? According to NCAA rules he is now able to keep his eligibility through the draft process, and participate in workouts, the NBA Draft Combine and other events with teams. His name can still be entered in the NBA Draft pool, and given where he feels like he would fall Garza can make a decision on his future after the pre-draft process plays out. Another interesting element in his decision could be an NBA Draft process that looks extremely different. If the NFL Draft is any indication, the draft process in a global pandemic will certainly change drastically. Badger fans should keep their eye on Garza throughout his process, as the big man’s decision could have a major say in who wins the conference next season.

2020 NBA Draft Big Board: Latest updates after NCAA regular season

With the near conclusion of the 2019-20 NCAA Men’s Basketball Regular Season, it is worth taking another look at the 2020 NBA Draft prospects.

With the conclusion of the 2019-20 NCAA men’s basketball regular season fast approaching, it’s worth taking another look at the 2020 NBA Draft prospects.

While quite a bit will change on big boards and mock drafts following the conference tournaments and March Madness, some of the top players have already convinced NBA teams that they deserve serious consideration when the draft rolls around on June 25, 2020.

Others still have plenty of time to improve their draft stock on the floor and in workouts and interviews. For what it is worth, former top prospects coming into their freshman campaigns who could go back to school for their sophomore campaigns (for example, Florida’s Scottie Lewis and Duke’s Wendell Moore) were not included on this list.

Note that statistics are pulled from Synergy Sports Tech, Bart-Torvik.com, KenPom.com, RealGM or Sports-Reference.

1. LaMelo Ball, USA

(Photo by Anthony Au-Yeung/Getty Images)

Guard, 6-foot-7, 18 years old

The main reason to believe in Ball as the top player in the 2020 NBA Draft is because of his ridiculously high upside. With his unique size, he can put up a triple-double on any given night. Even when Ball was playing against much older professional competition in Australia’s NBL, Ball nearly averaged a triple-double per 36 minutes. Meanwhile, his defensive stats were also much better than expected, and his basketball instincts are strong. It is difficult to find an accurate read on Ball, given how many different teams he has played for in recent years. However, there should be enough to like about him for a team to select him with one of the first few picks.

2. Onyeka Okongwu, USC

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Big, 6-foot-9, 19 years old

While he’s a bit undersized at 6-9, he can play bigger than his height, given his 7-foot-2 wingspan. For example, his block percentage (10.0%) ranks among the top five of all freshmen this season. He is more celebrated for his defensive ability, but the offense is there, too. Okongwu is averaging 1.14 points per possession as an offensive finisher, per Synergy, which ranks in the 98th percentile among all NCAA players. Put it all together, and the USC big man currently has the best box plus-minus in college basketball. Even if there might not be as much star potential as a player such as Georgia’s Anthony Edwards, he feels much closer to a sure thing in the NBA.

3. Anthony Edwards, Georgia

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Wing, 6-foot-5, 18 years old

Under head coach Tom Crean, the University of Georgia freshman has been a revelation in transition offense. Edwards ranks among the top five nationally in total scoring on these plays, per Synergy, averaging 5.7 points per game. He looks his best when his shot attempts come closer to the rim, especially considering his 6-foot-9 wingspan. Farther from the basket, meanwhile, more than half of his 3-pointers have been unassisted. This shows he is capable of creating his own shot. Edwards, however, is shooting just 30.3% from beyond the arc on the season. But the reason to like him as a top-three pick is more about flashes of greatness, and he is averaging 21.8 points per game in February.

4. Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State

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Guard, 6-foot-5, 20 years old

Haliburton is a skinny, lengthy guard measured with a 7-foot wingspan though and 170-pound frame. But most important is his valuable 3-and-D skill set. Before his injury, his 3-point percentage (41.9%) and steal percentage (3.8%) were both among the best in the NCAA. As a distributor and lead ballhandler, despite an unusually low usage rate, his assist rate still ranks in the top 10 among all underclassmen at high-major programs. Haliburton has been productive enough to suggest he can take over as the starting point guard in the NBA as soon as next season. There may be a low ceiling, but there is also a very high floor.

5. Killian Hayes, Ratiopharm Ulm

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Guard, 6-foot-5, 18 years old

Much like Ball, there is a lot to like about Hayes due to his size and overall upside. He can be a lead ballhandler and has been measured with a 6-foot-7 wingspan. Hayes led France to the silver medal in 2018 at the U17 World Cup, averaging 21.4 points and 4.4 assists with 3.6 steals per 36 minutes. He is shooting 39.0% from beyond the arc in Eurocup action and has been able to produce well as a scorer as he has grown into a bigger role.

3 Key Takeaways: No. 24 Michigan State defeats No. 18 Iowa

Michigan State Basketball took down one of the best Big Ten teams in the Iowa Hawkeyes. Here are three key takeaways from this game.

Michigan State Basketball defeated arguably the best Big Ten team last night in the Iowa Hawkeyes. Cassius Winston led the Spartans to a 78-70 victory at the Breslin Center. In this same game, Xavier Tillman became MSU’s all-time leader in blocks.

Here are three key takeaways from this game:

1. Stop Sleeping On Cassius Winston

For some reason, I feel like Cassius Winston is underrated. There was so much hype on Luka Garza as the best Big Ten player. Some even put Garza onto the national stage as the best NCAA player this season. Cassius Winston’s performance last night obviously warrants a debate.

Luka Garza was locked down in the second half while Winston erupted for 19 second-half points. Cassius didn’t put up unimpressive 19 points either. Instead, he left Iowa defenders in his dust while driving to the basketball. At one point, Winston hit a fadeaway corner three-pointer. He took control of this game and made everything look so easy.

2. Xavier Tillman Sr. Is The Best Big Ten Defender

As mentioned earlier, Tillman became the all-time leader in blocks at Michigan State. He also completely locked up Luka Garza in the process. Tillman held Garza to only eight second-half points. Late in the game, Tillman had a critical block on Garza as well.

Let’s put this defensive performance against Garza into perspective. No other team has kept Garza to 20 points or less since Nebraska on January 1. Tillman deserves every single bit of praise available. Even Izzo spoke on Xavier being the best defender in the Big Ten.

3. Rocket Watts & Aaron Henry Provide Scoring Boost

Rocket Watts scored 21 points last night, matching his career-high total from the Illinois game a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Aaron Henry put up a season-high of 17 points. Aaron Henry, Rocket Watts, Gabe Brown, & Kyle Ahrens are all incredibly important to a deep NCAA tournament. MSU needs two or more of these players contributing at least 15 points a game. Luckily, Watts & Henry stepped up to the plate against Iowa.

The Spartans are back in action again this upcoming Saturday at 8 P.M. on ESPN.

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Game Recap: Cassius Winston leads MSU basketball in comeback victory against Iowa 78-70

Michigan State Basketball beat Iowa at the Breslin Center, 78-70, in a wonderful comeback victory. Here is a quick game recap of this win.

Michigan State Basketball beat Iowa at home, 78-70. Michigan State put out a starting lineup of Cassius Winston, Rocket Watts, Aaron Henry, Marcus Bingham Jr., and Xavier Tillman. This was a physical matchup between two of the better Big Ten basketball teams. Rocket Watts and Cassius Winston led MSU in scoring with 21 and 20 points respectively.

Here is a recap of this game:

First Half

MSU started strong out of the gate with two defensive stops on Iowa Center Luka Garza. Both teams exchanged buckets in the first two minutes of this game. Rocket Watts hit a floater nearly three minutes into this game, tying up the score 7-7. Note, MSU turned the ball over three times in the first four minutes of this game. Meanwhile, Luka Garza was 0/4 from the floor.

Xavier Tillman picked up his second foul five minutes into the game, not good. Malik Hall scored on back-to-back possessions, keeping the score close. MSU moved the ball around well, finding Aaron Henry wide open for three. Iowa answered back with a bucket of their own. The Hawkeyes led the Spartans 18-14 halfway through the first half.

Michigan State played excellent defense for the next two minutes. Then, Winston found Kithier on an alley-oop layup. The Spartans went on a 7-0 run to take a 21-20 lead with 6:30 left in the first half. Michigan State then missed its next five shots. Meanwhile, Iowa pushed its lead to 31-25.

Iowa closed out the half with a lead of 33-27.

Second Half

Michigan State used its starting lineup at the beginning of the second half. This resulted in an immediate Cassius Winston three-pointer. Iowa extended the lead to seven points the largest lead of the game. Then, Ryan Kriener hit a three-pointer and Iowa led by 10.

The Spartans struggled against Luka Garza as do most teams. Rocket Watts hit a clutch three then Xavier Tillman netted a free throw. Cassius Winston then scored on a ridiculous, fade away corner three. This cut the deficit to only two points. Luka Garza was fouled down low and converted the and-one opportunity. MSU down 46-41 with 15 minutes left in the game.

Rocket Watts turned the ball over and left a three-point shooter wide open for three. Iowa now leading by eight points. Cassius Winston scored on three consecutive plays, including two three-pointers and a layup. A few plays later, Henry hit a mid-range jumper to tie the game, 51-51.

Winston found Tillman down low for an easy bucket. Thus, MSU enjoyed its first lead of the game since the close of the first half. Both teams traded buckets back and forth for the next five minutes. Aaron Henry hit two free throws with four minutes remaining to push MSU ahead 63-61.

Rocket Watts hit another clutch three-pointer but Iowa answered back. Henry scored down near the rim, putting MSU ahead 68-64. Then, Xavier Tillman stole the ball on a critical play. Rocket Watts scored on a fast break play. Xavier Tillman continued his stellar defense on Garza with another critical stop.

Cassius Winston hit both free throws. MSU now ahead 72-64 with one minute remaining in the game.

The Spartans closed out this game with more free throws, enjoying a 78-70 comeback victory at the Breslin Center.

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Michigan State vs. Iowa basketball statistical preview

Let’s take a look at how Michigan State and Iowa match up from a numbers perspective.

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No. 24 Michigan State hosts the No. 18 Iowa Hawkeyes Tuesday night (7:00 ESPN 2) in a matchup that will eliminate the loser from Big Ten contention. The Hawkeyes will roll into East Lansing on the back of Big Ten Player of the Year favorite Luka Garza. The junior big man is averaging a robust 23.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Iowa has one of the best offenses in college basketball and Michigan State is going to have their work cut out for them if they want to get a victory tonight.

Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up from a statistical standpoint and where edges can perhaps be gleaned.

Advanced stats and ranks courtesy kenpom.com.

Overview

Michigan State: 18-9 overall, 10-6 Big Ten

-No. 7 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 18 in adjusted offense

-No. 14 in adjusted defense

-No. 98 in adjusted tempo

Iowa: 19-8 overall, 10-6 Big Ten

-No. 22 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 5 in adjusted offense

-No. 92 in adjusted defense

-No. 69 in adjusted tempo

As you can see, Iowa likes scoring points. Really, every college basketball likes scoring points, but Iowa *really* likes scoring points. They play at a fast pace on offense and they get a ton of shots up. You’ll soon see that they don’t really do any one thing as a team at an elite level, bu they are incredibly balanced on offense. They need to be, because woof, it is not pretty on defense for the Hawkeyes. Fran McCaffery’s squad comes into this game having won two straight and part of the logjam tie for second place in the Big Ten. The road has now been kind to Iowa in conference play; they’re 2-6 on the road and that includes a loss at Nebraska. As mentioned, Luka Garza is going to win Big Ten Player of the Year and it’ll be deserved. He’s been an efficient and productive machine this year and one of the best players in the country. Behind him Joe Wieskamp is an excellent wing player and then things thin out for the Hawkeyes. Freshman shooting guard CJ Fredrick is shooting 47% from three this year, but has been out with an injury the last few games. His status for this one is certainly up in the air. The Hawkeyes are a very good team, but have certainly had their struggles against MSU in the past.

Let’s dive into some specifics.

A note: Four factors is something you will see in these posts a lot. They are four statistical categories that heavily dictate good basketball vs. bad basketball. They are: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA). If a team is good at these four things, they are good at basketball.

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State Offense four factors: No. 69 in eFG% (effective field goal), No. 132 in turnover %, No. 38 in Oreb%, No. 211 in free throw rate

Iowa defense four factors: No. 172 eFG% against, No. 236 in turnover %, No. 215 in Oreb%, No. 42 in FTR

Michigan State’s turnover numbers have been all over the place this season. Believe it or not, there was a good chunk of time earlier this year when they were a pretty good team at protecting the ball. That has certainly gone to hell and it seems like it doesn’t matter who the opponent is. Nebraska was not a team that forced turnovers, yet MSU turned it over 20+ times against them. Iowa is the same way. Can MSU protect the ball better? The Spartans should have a great advantage on the glass as they generally do. MSU’s shooting numbers are coming around lately, which is encouraging given the whole turnovers thing. If they’re gonna waste a bunch of possessions on turnovers, they better make up for it with shot making. Free throws remain an issue as nobody is getting to the line consistently for MSU. Iowa doesn’t foul much so I’d be surprised if MSU got to the line a bunch in this one.

When Iowa has the ball

Iowa offensive four factors: No. 68 in eFG%, No. 58 in turnover %, No. 58 in Oreb%, No. 116 in FTR

Michigan State defensive four factors: No. 2 in eFG% against, No. 323 in turnover %, No. 63 in Oreb% against, No. 92 in FTR

This is going to be a very interesting matchup. Michigan State is forcing missed shots better than anybody in the country over the last month and they’ve jumped all the way to No. 2 in eFG% against. Luka Garza is going to get a bunch of points and a bunch of rebounds. The key is can MSU make him inefficient on his way to his totals. Something like 20 points on 21 shots is right in line with what it takes to beat Iowa. Rebounding on this end of the floor is going to be huge. If Iowa is struggling to make shots, they’re going to need to win on the glass and while MSU has generally been a pretty good defensive rebounding team, they’ve been prone to games where they just don’t show up on the glass. They can’t afford one of those against Iowa. The path for MSU is the same as it always is; force tough, contested shots and grab the rebound. It’s as simple as that.

Other key numbers

Michigan State ranks No. 7 in both 2P% and 3P% against. They’re technically 2nd in eFG% against, but there really might not be a team in college basketball that is harder to make shots on right now than MSU.

Iowa has two good shooters from three in the absence of Fredrick. Garza shoots 38% on decent volume and Wieskamp shoots 37% on solid volume. Outside of those two, Iowa really struggles to shoot from deep. The thing is, those two take most of the shots.

As a team the Hawkeyes rank 81st in three-point percentage and are middle of the pack in terms of three point volume.

While he is tremendous at nearly everything and is nationally ranked in a ton of categories, Luka Garza struggles from the free throw line. After shooting 80% from the stripe last year, Garza has regressed back down to a career-low 65%. We know he can shoot the ball well from pretty much anywhere, so I’m guessing it’s a bit of a confidence/mental thing with him at the free throw line.

Conclusion

Iowa is a really good team with an elite offense. They are locked into the NCAA tournament and still have an outside shot at the Big Ten regular season title. The CJ Fredrick injury looms large here as the dynamic of the Iowa offense totally changes without his elite shooting. Luka Garza is going to get his, but MSU is going to have to do a great job on secondary scorers, most importantly Joe Wieskamp. If MSU continues to force tough shots and does a good job on the defensive glass, they should be fine. Iowa isn’t really built to win a slugfest and MSU is a much more balanced team and can play a multitude of styles. Iowa is going to have to take a few extra threes in this one and shoot it well from deep. On defense they’ll need to try and make sure MSU’s turnover struggles continue. KenPom projects this game as a 79-73 win for MSU, a 69% chance of victory.

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3 Things to Watch: Michigan State Basketball vs. Iowa

Michigan State basketball faces off against a Big Ten powerhouse in Iowa this week. Here are 3 things to watch in this game.

Michigan State welcomes the Iowa Hawkeyes to the Breslin Center this Tuesday for another Big Ten basketball game. The Spartans just beat Nebraska, 86-65, on the road. Iowa most recently beat Ohio State, 86-76, at home.

Here are three things to watch in this game:

1. The Luka Garza Matchup

Luka Garza is probably the best Big Ten basketball player this season. Some may even say he is the best NCAA basketball player this season as well. Nonetheless, he is a serious matchup issue for every Big Ten opponent including Michigan State. Garza is an extremely skilled big man who can shoot threes, grab boards, and dominate the paint.

Luka Garza stands at 6’11” and weighs 260 pounds. Marcus Bingham Jr. is also 6’11” but has not played significant minutes for Michigan State the past few games. Xavier Tillman is 6’8″ and Malik Hall is 6’7″. Iowa is a top-tier three-point shooting team in the Big Ten, so double teams are not really an option. Watch for how MSU schemes against Luka Garza on defense.

2. Turnover Control

MSU ended their last game against Nebraska with a season-high 22 turnovers. Big Ten basketball is really good this year. The Spartans cannot expect to win any game with 22 turnovers. Especially against an elite offensive like Iowa. The Hawkeyes will capitalize on every single Michigan State turnover. Watch for some more discipline from the Spartans in this game.

3. Michigan State’s Depth

The Spartans have not gotten a lot of contributions from their bench players this season. Against Nebraska, Gabe Brown and Kyle Ahrens combined for 31 points off the bench. Both set a season-high for scoring totals in one game. Michigan State could use another 30-40 points from the bench again this time around. Look for some bench scoring from the Spartans in this game.

MSU and Iowa play at 7 P.M. on Tuesday, Feb. 25 on ESPN2.

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Michigan State Basketball vs. No. 20 Iowa: Preview/Scouting Report

Michigan State Basketball welcomes Iowa to the Breslin Center this upcoming Tuesday on Feb. 25. Here is a scouting report of Iowa.

Michigan State Basketball takes on the Iowa Hawkeyes at the Breslin Center this Tuesday on Feb. 25. The Spartans are currently 18-9 overall and 10-6 in Big Ten Conference games. Iowa, on the other hand, is 19-8 overall and 10-6 in Big Ten Conference games.

Here is a scouting report on Iowa:

Placement In The Big Ten

The Iowa Hawkeyes are elite on the offensive end of the floor. They lead the Big Ten in points per game with 78.5 points per game. The Hawkeyes are third in field goal percentage, shooting 45% from the field. Furthermore, Iowa shoots 35% from deep as a team which ranks second in the Big Ten.

Iowa also ranks second in Big Ten assists per game with 17.3 per game. Note, this puts the Hawkeyes right under MSU, averaging 17.7 assists per game. Iowa is also fifth in steals per game with 6.52 and eighth in rebounds per game with 37.5.

The Hawkeyes are great on offensive but not necessarily overwhelming on the defensive end. They are ninth in blocks per game with 3.77. Also, they average just about 12.07 turnovers per game. There are certainly flaws to be found in Iowa’s game.

Luka Garza

Man oh man, Luka Garza is a beast on the basketball court. Garza is currently first in Big Ten points per game and fourth in the entire NCAA with 23.7 points per game. He is sixth in Big Ten field goal percentage, shooting 56% from the floor. Luka Garza also ranks fourth in Big Ten rebounds per game with 9.6 and ninth in Big Ten blocks per game with 1.67.

Garza is a scoring machine. Earlier in the year on Dec. 6, he scored a season-high 44 points on Michigan. He just had back-to-back 24-point games against Minnesota and Ohio State University. In the past five games, Garza has scored a staggering total of 134 points. He has led Iowa in scoring in 66% of all games so far this season. So yeah, Garza will be a huge problem for MSU in this game.

Versatile Backcourt Depth

Iowa boasts great players well beyond just Luka Garza. Joe Wieskamp, CJ Fredrick, Jordan Bohannon, Joe Toussaint, & Connor McCaffery range from good to very solid in terms of talent. Start with Wieskamp, who ranks ninth in Big Ten points per game with 14.9 and fourteenth in Big Ten rebounds per game with 6.1. Wieskamp rebounds the ball extremely well for Iowa and serves as a reliable, secondary scorer behind Garza.

CJ Fredrick leads Iowa and the Big Ten in three-point shooting efficiency, making 47% of his shots from deep. He also averages 10.7 points per game. Jordan Bohannon averages 8.8 points per game along with 3.3 assists per game. Joe Toussaint averages 1.3 steals per game, the most on Iowa’s roster. Lastly, Connor McCaffery leads his team with 3.8 assists per game which also ranks seventh in the Big Ten.

Each Iowa Guard provides something different for their team. As a result, Iowa is dangerous at all times on offense. You cannot simply double Luka Garza when he can kick it out to a 47% three-point shooter. No wonder this team is a Big Ten powerhouse right now.

The Spartans play against the Hawkeyes Tuesday at 7 P.M. on ESPN2.

Ohio State basketball loses to Iowa: 5 things we learned

Ohio State went to Iowa and got down big early and couldn’t reel things back in. Here are five things we learned after the loss.

Ohio State went to Iowa City and got schooled by a hungrier, tougher, and more composed Iowa team — losing 85-76.

It was always going to be a tough proposition to win on the road against a ranked team that likes to get up and down the court, but became even harder when the Buckeyes dug themselves a deep hole to start the game.

At the end of the day, it was another loss on the road where Ohio State looked like a shell of its home self. It doesn’t get any easier for the Buckeyes as they must now head back home to host a Maryland team that has enough pieces to make a deep run in March.

Here are five things we learned after watching this one.

Next … Where’s the toughness