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Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 7

Ranking the top and bottom rookies looking ahead in fantasy football.

Nearly six weeks and more than a third of the way through NFL 2020, the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders.

In our fantasy football realm, the same process is underway with the wheat starting to distinguish itself from the chaff. As usual, this season’s crop of rookies is well-represented in both bins, and that’s our focus in this week’s edition of TTT.

We starting by ranking the top eight fantasy rookies so far and judging their rest-of-season staying power at their current level of production on a 1-10 scale, going from least to most likely. Then we’re doing the same with our top five rookie fantasy disappointments, and rating their respective chances to improve upon their current level of production on the same 1-10 scale.

It’s all to help fantasy general managers make better lineup and roster decisions with the typically volatile first-year players as the stakes grow increasingly larger in the rapidly approaching second half of the fantasy season.

Arguably, the case can be made that a rookie or two (see Edwards-Helaire, Clyde) simultaneously belongs on both of our lists here, but to avoid any spoiler alerts, you’ll just have to read all the way through to find out if any do, in fact, achieve that dual distinction.

One quick note on our fantasy rookie ranks: More weight is given to the more valuable fantasy positions where scarcity helps elevate a running back over a similarly performing wide receiver, for instance. A rookie’s average draft position is factored in, as well, with later-round standouts given precedence over a similarly performing high draft pick.

And you’ll soon notice that no tight ends appear on either list, simply because there have been no fantasy rookies of note so far this season.

All that established, we dive right into our top eight 2020 fantasy rookies to date, with rankings and statistics through play Sunday in Week 6 …

Best fantasy rookies (so far)

8. QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Current position rank (total standard-scoring fantasy points): 16 (125.5 in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 19

Most impressive achievement: The No. 1 overall pick has delivered consistent production, putting up at least 20.1 fantasy points in five of his six starts and throwing for at least 300 yards in four of six outings.

Staying power: 7. There are worries about Cincy’s offensive line — only the Eagles’ Carson Wentz at 25 times has been sacked more than Burrow’s 24 takedowns — but he’s surrounded by a strong cast of weapons and also has displayed some underrated rushing ability with 87 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to date.

7) RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs

Current position rank (fantasy points): 19 (74.2 in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 7

Most impressive achievement: The expected workload has been there with CEH averaging 21.3 touches and 113.7 yards from scrimmage per game, but the lack of touchdowns has been a downer as he’s accounted for only one of K.C.’s five rushing scores.

Staying power: 4. At least Edwards-Helaire owners could cling to the fact that he’s garnered 79 percent of the running back touches over the team’s first six games. But that number almost certainly will go down, starting in Week 7, with the Chiefs signing veteran RB Le’Veon Bell, who figures to command a hefty share of targets and goal-line work. And if Bell is more like Steelers Bell than Jets Bell, CEH could find himself relegated to a No. 2 role.

6) RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Current position rank (fantasy points): 14 (70.9 in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 18

Most impressive achievement: The no-frills Taylor has had at least 14 touches and 62 total yards in each contest and has been efficient as a receiver, catching 16-of-17 targets for 162 yards.

Staying power: 9. It’s a bit concerning that Taylor has only seen 12 rushing attempts in each of the last two contests and has scored once since Week 3, but he’s the lead back on a run-heavy team that doesn’t need aging QB Philip Rivers dropping back too many times.

5) QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Current position rank (fantasy points): 22 (107.2 in 4 games)

Positional ADP: 31

Most impressive achievement: Since stepping in on short notice for the injured Tyrod Taylor in Week 2, Herbert has hit the ground throwing, compiling at least 22 fantasy points in each of his first four starts and totaling 10 TDs with only three interceptions. His average of 26.8 fantasy points per game ranks seventh at the position — impressive for a rookie and even more impressive in a season of record offensive numbers across the league.

Staying power: 8. Herbert is surrounded by a strong supporting cast — especially when RB Austin Ekeler returns — but he’s even produced while targeting unknowns such as WRs Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson and has the makings of a surprise QB1 finisher.

4) WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Current position rank (fantasy points): 4 (71.7 in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 48

Most impressive achievement: After a concerning slow start with only six total targets and 7.0 fantasy points combined in his first two games, Jefferson has been nothing less than fantasy’s No. 1 wideout since Week 3, reeling in 23-of-30 targets for 467 yards, three TDs and 66.7 fantasy points.

Staying power: 6. Jefferson has definitely started on a boom-or-bust track, but he and fellow top-five fantasy WR Adam Thielen have combined to command 44.9 percent (75 of 167) of the Vikings’ passing game targets so far. Minnesota always prefers to lean on the ground game, but a brutal defense is likely going to force Kirk Cousins to air it out more than the Vikes would like.

3) WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Current position rank (fantasy points): 17 (56.6 in 5 games)

Positional ADP: 37

Most impressive achievement: Lamb has not only rapidly fit in with one of the league’s best offenses and passing attacks, he’s leading the way with 433 receiving yards and 56.6 fantasy points — tops among the team’s talented pass-catchers. And it’s his consistency that gives him the slight edge over Jefferson here as Lamb has had at least 10.9 fantasy points in every outing.

Staying power: 6. There’s some real and justifiable concern with starting QB Dak Prescott going down for the season in Week 5, but veteran Andy Dalton is among the league’s more capable backups. There’s also the narrative that the Cowboys will turn to the run more now with Dalton under center after ranking as the league’s second pass-heaviest offense (66.2 percent) through Week 5, but Dallas’ abominable defense (league-high 36 points surrendered per game entering Monday night) doesn’t figure to play along.

2) RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Current position rank (fantasy points): 8 (80.9 points in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 53

Most impressive achievement: Undrafted out of FCS Illinois State, Robinson has seized hold of the Jaguars’ starting RB gig and hasn’t let go. He has accounted for 85 of the Jags’ 91 RB rushing attempts and 362 of the team’s 379 RB rushing yards while catching 23 of 26 targets for 207 yards. Only two other players (Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry) through Sunday had more yards from scrimmage than Robinson’s 569.

Staying power: 8. Even though the Jags own the league’s lowest rushing-play percentage (32.3), when they do run, it’s with Robinson and he’s well on the way to becoming this season’s out-of-nowhere RB1 surprise.

1) WR Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers

Current position rank (fantasy points): 5 (71.6 in 5 games)

Positional ADP: 78

Most impressive achievement: Pittsburgh’s latest wideout sensation has quickly emerged as the best fantasy weapon on a stacked Steelers offense, thanks largely to his six TDs (two rushing), tied for second among league wide receivers. He leads the Steelers in receiving yards (335) with 141 more than JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has six more receptions.

Staying power: 5. Claypool is tied for only fourth on the team in targets (24) and that’s with fellow wideout Diontae Johnson (26 targets) missing nearly two full games with a back issue. Claypool also has been involved as a ball-carrier with six rushes for 21 yards and two TDs, but his overall video game numbers — 14.0 yards per target and six TDs on only 23 touches — are simply unsustainable and don’t be surprised if he falls back toward the WR pack in the Steel City.

Most disappointing fantasy rookies (to date)

5) WR Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles

Current position rank (total standard-scoring fantasy points): 118 (9.6 in 2 games)

Positional ADP: 53

Statistical shortfall: With pass-catchers Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Dallas Goedert battling injuries, the door was wide open for the speedy first-round selection to step in and make an immediate impact, but he’s fallen prey to the same Philly injury curse (torn thumb ligament) and has been limited to 100 early-season snaps, resulting in five catches for 96 yards. That’s deprived the Eagles and many of his fantasy owners of a much-needed weapon.

Chances to improve: 9. Reagor is due back after Philly’s Week 9 bye, and even if he’s slow to heal, misses that mark by a couple weeks and winds up playing only half a season with average WR4 production, it will be better than next to nothing.

4) RB Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills

Current position rank (fantasy points): 62 (13.4 in 3 games)

Positional ADP: 40

Statistical shortfall: We have another injured-addled pro debut so far here, as Moss entered Buffalo’s Week 6 Monday night game with only 20 touches on 67 snaps in two games due to a toe issue. He exited with 25 touches. Moss also had a track record of missed time and health issues in college at Utah, and so far, it’s looking like more of the same at the next level.

Chances to improve: 9. Buffalo lead Devin Singletary has been struggling, totaling only 46.5 fantasy points in the Bills’ first six games, so Moss has a legit shot at taking over Buffalo lead-back duties if he can stay on the field.

3) WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

Current position rank (fantasy points): 52 (32.6 in 5 games)

Positional ADP: 39

Statistical shortfall: The opportunity has been there for the taking in a Denver offense missing three of its top passing-game targets (TE Noah Fant and WRs Courtland Sutton and K.J. Hamler) for most of the season, but the first-round pick has failed to take full advantage, catching 17 of a team-most 33 targets for 266 yards and one TD so far. Dropped passes have been a problem in Jeudy’s inefficient 51.5 catch percentage.

Chances to improve: 8. Sutton is gone for the season and QB Drew Lock has only played two full games so far. The Broncos also have gone up against some tough secondaries (Steelers, Bucs and Patriots) so look for Jeudy’s efficiency and production to start trending in the right direction, even though his fantasy ceiling looks to be WR3 production.

2) RB J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

Current position rank (fantasy points): 40 (34.8 points in 6 games)

Positional ADP: 30

Statistical shortfall: If we had known this summer that the rushing numbers (attempts and yards) would be down for both QB Lamar Jackson and lead RB Mark Ingram this season and the Ravens would still be a top-two NFL rushing squad, Dobbins would’ve been a much hotter fantasy commodity. Instead, Dobbins is averaging only six touches and 38 total yards per contest, and following 14.2 fantasy points with two TDs in Week 1, he hasn’t cleared 6.1 points or found the end zone in five games since.

Chances to improve: 7. Dobbins is averaging 1.7 more yards per rush and 1.6 more yards per touch than either Ingram or fellow RB Gus Edwards and has caught 11 passes to a combined three for the other two backs, easily making him the team’s most efficient RB so far. That should earn the rookie more touches and snaps down the stretch, especially if Ingram’s Week 6 ankle injury proves to be anything serious.

1) RB Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

Current position rank (fantasy points): 75 (11.7 in 4 games)

Positional ADP: 25

Statistical shortfall: The second-round pick did miss Weeks 2 and 3 with a rib injury, but has seen only 27 touches in the Rams’ other four contests — including none Sunday night in Week 6 — for a total of 117 scoreless total yards. Fellow backs Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown, meanwhile, are averaging 13.2 and 11.2 touches per contest, making Akers the third wheel in the L.A. backfield.

Chances to improve: 5. Akers certainly has potential for bigger and better things in an above-average offense, but the other two backs appear to offer more explosion (Henderson) and sound veteran consistency (Brown), and the rookie really might need an injury to one of those two to approach any kind of usable touches.

Fantasy Football: Targets, Touches & TDs: Week 6

Tackling five backfields that create confusion in fantasy football and trying to make sense of them.

Despite the ongoing extreme makeovers with the NFL itinerary, we remain right on schedule here with your weekly serving of TT&T.

Running backs remain the most valuable point-for-point fantasy football commodities, and with that in mind this week, we’re tackling five of the league’s most baffling backfields – ones where a clear, startable fantasy back has yet to emerge.

From each of these five backfields, we’ll take a look at the key stats and metrics produced so far and use those as guideposts to try and forecast whatever fantasy value may emerge from each going forward.

Here goes, starting alphabetically with the …

Baltimore Ravens

Primary backs and stats

Mark Ingram: (5 games played) 45 rushes-205 yards-2 TDs; 5 targets-3 receptions-25 yards-0 TDs. 35.0 standard-scoring fantasy points/38.0 point-per-reception points
J.K. Dobbins: (5) 16-126-2; 10-9-73-0. 31.9/40.9
Gus Edwards: (5) 34-192-0; 3-0-0-0. 19.2/19.2

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

Ingram: 48-230-2 (0.73 standard scoring/0.79 PPR)
Dobbins: 25-199-2 (1.28/1.64)
Edwards: 34-192-0 (0.56/0.56)

Offensive snap shares

Dobbins: 106/300 (35.3 percent)
Ingram: 99/300 (33.0)
Edwards: 95/300 (31.7)

Red-zone stats

Ingram: 7-16-1 rushing; 2-1-4-0 receiving
Dobbins: 2-5-2; 0-0-0-0
Edwards: 1-2-0; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

Major asterisk here, of course, with quarterback Lamar Jackson ranking second on the team in rushing attempts (41) and pacing the squad with 238 rushing yards – and that’s even with Jackson’s average number of attempts down 3.5 carries per contest (11.7-8.2) from last season.

The drafting of Dobbins has played a major role in knocking Ingram’s per-game touch average down to 9.6 from 15.2 a year ago, and that – and an expected touchdown regression – has caused Ingram to fall from the RB1 ranks down to sub-flex territory as he currently ranks 34^th at the position in total fantasy points (standard scoring) and 42^nd in average fantasy points per contest.

Ingram has been the Ravens’ back to own simply due to the fact that he’s getting the most the carries on the league’s second-best rushing team (160.8 yards per game). But Dobbins is superior in yards-per-touch (8.0-4.8) and fantasy-points-per-touch averages. Additionally, his higher usage in the passing game portends bigger and better fantasy things as the season presses on. He’s a must-add if he was somehow dropped in your league.

Edwards still will be involved as well – primarily as a late-game closer – but Ingram and Dobbins are the Ravens’ backs to own in standard-size leagues.

Detroit Lions

Primary backs and stats

Adrian Peterson: (4 games played) 54 rushes-245 yards-1 TD; 6 targets-4 receptions-31 yards-0 TDs; 33.6 standard-scoring fantasy points/37.6 PPR points
D’Andre Swift: (4) 12-42-1; 16-13-124-1; 28.6/41.6
Kerryon Johnson: (4) 21-71-1; 3-2-17-0; 14.8/16.8

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

Peterson: 58-276-1 (0.58 standard scoring/0.65 PPR)
Swift: 25-166-2 (1.14/1.66)
Johnson: 23-88-1 (0.64/0.73)

Offensive snap shares

Peterson: 105/264 (39.8 percent)
Swift: 83/264 (31.4)
Johnson: 70/264 (26.5)

Red-zone stats

Peterson: 12-35-1 rushing; 0-0-0-0 receiving
Swift: 2-2-1; 3-2-16-1
Johnson: 5-19-1; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

The Sept. 7 signing of the 35-year-old Peterson changed the whole dynamic of the situation here as he has 10 more touches than the rookie Swift and the incumbent Johnson combined.

Given his superior rushing attempt and snap shares and red-zone work, an iron man known as Peterson has been Detroit’s most trustworthy fantasy back to date, but Swift’s sizable edge in the passing game isn’t to be ignored. The second-round pick quietly ranks 20^th among all league running backs with 13 receptions and figures to become more and more involved as his adjustment to the pro game eases and his early-season health issues further fade away.

Johnson, thought be to be a rising fantasy star only a season ago, has become the odd man out.

Los Angeles Rams

Primary backs and stats

Darrell Henderson: (5 games played) 58 rushes-260 yards-3 TDs; 11 targets-7 receptions-92 yards-1 TD. 59.2 standard-scoring fantasy points/66.2 point-per-reception points
Malcolm Brown: (5) 53-213-2; 14-9-44-0. 37.7/46.7
Cam Akers: (3) 26-113-0; 1-1-4-0. 11.7/12.7

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

Henderson: 65-352-4 (0.91 standard scoring/1.02 PPR)
Brown: 62-257-2 (0.61/0.75)
Akers: 27-117-0 (0.43/0.47)

Offensive snap shares

Brown: 176/336 (52.4 percent)
Henderson: 119/336 (35.4)
Akers: 40/210 (19.0)

Red-zone stats

Henderson: 17-35-3 rushing; 3-2-18-1 receiving
Brown: 10-31-2; 3-1-(-2)-0
Akers: 2-5-0; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

There’s definitely some interest here as the Rams have logged the league’s second-most rushing attempts (169) this season and trail only the Browns as well in overall rushing-play percentage at 51.5.

Even though Brown owns a sizable snap edge, Henderson has out-touched Brown in three of the Rams’ last four games for a 62-41 edge during that span. Akers, meanwhile, got the start in Los Angeles’ opening two games before leaving early in Week 2 with a rib-cartilage injury that kept him out of action until Sunday.

As a rookie second-round pick, Akers is the team’s shiny new object, while Brown lends a steady, veteran presence, and Henderson has been the most productive and dynamic of the trio to date. Look for a Henderson/Akers split of the workload going forward with the former drawing the slight edge in touches.

New England Patriots

Primary backs and stats

Rex Burkhead: (4 games played) 30 rushes-128yards-2 TDs; 17 targets-12 receptions-101 yards-1 TD. 40.9 standard-scoring fantasy points/52.9 point-per-reception points
Sony Michel: (3) 26-173-1; 3-2-23-0. 25.6/27.6
James White: (2) 8-43-0; 11-10-68-0. 11.1/21.1
Damien Harris: (1) 17-100-0; 0-0-0-0. 10.0/10.0
J.J. Taylor: (3) 16-70-0; 2-1-4-0. 7.4/8.4

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

Burkhead: 42-229-3 (0.97 standard scoring/1.26 PPR)
Michel: 28-196-1 (0.91/0.99)
White: 18-111-0 (0.62/1.17)
Harris: 17-100-0 (0.59/0.59)
Taylor: 17-74-0 (0.44/0.49)

Offensive snap shares

Burkhead: 128/280 (45.7 percent)
White: 59/139 (42.4)
Harris: 23/75 (30.7)
Michel: 60/205 (29.3)
Taylor: 25/205 (12.2)

Red-zone stats

Burkhead: 8-36-2 rushing; 4-2-23-1 receiving
Michel: 5-18-1; 0-0-0-0
Taylor: 3-10-0; 1-0-0-0
White: 1-7-0; 1-1-(-4)-0
Harris: 1-5-0; 0-0-0-0

Outlook

The Pats’ backfield situation is the toughest enigma to crack – for a number of reasons.

First, there’s the sheer number of backs in the mix (five), and then there’s the Cam Newton factor, as the quarterback remains one of the league’s top red-zone rushing threats with 12 carries for 37 yards and four TDs in only three games so far. And, then, most significant of all, this is the Patriots we’re talking about, as the chameleon-like Bill Belichick and his staff change things up on a weekly basis to keep opposing defenses – not to mention fantasy general managers – off-balance.

With Michel on injured reserve, though, and the rookie Taylor seeing only a 12.2-percent snap share in the games he’s played, that whittles the usable fantasy contenders down to three.

White, who’s averaging five catches per game, remains a PPR-format flex factor while Harris – he of the preseason buzz before a finger injury knocked him out of the first three games – made the most recent favorable impression with a team season-high 17 rushes for an even 100 yards in his 2020 debut in Week 4. Burkhead is the jack-of-all trades who always figures to be active and involved to some degree, but we’ve more than likely already seen his best game this season as he accounted for a 65.8 percent (34.8) of his 52.9 PPR points in Week 3.

That leaves White (PPR) and Harris (still need to see more coming out of the Week 5 bye) as the Pats’ best RB fantasy bets.

New York Giants

Primary backs and stats

Devonta Freeman: (3 games played) 33 rushes-103 yards-1 TD; 7 targets-6 receptions-62 yards-0 TDs. 22.5 standard-scoring fantasy points/28.5 point-per-reception points
Dion Lewis: (5) 13-31-1; 16-9-55-0. 14.6/23.6
Wayne Gallman: (4) 15-76-0; 6-5-21-0. 9.4/14.4

Total touches-yards-TDs (fantasy points/touch)

Freeman: 39-165-1 (0.58 standard scoring/0.73 PPR)
Lewis: 22-86-1 (0.66/1.07)
Gallman: 20-97-0 (0.47; 0.72)

Offensive snap shares

Freeman: 89/188 (47.3 percent)
Lewis: 124/321 (38.6)
Gallman: 43/256 (17.0)

Red-zone stats

Freeman: 3-6-1 rushing; 1-1-(-2)-0 receiving
Lewis: 1-1-1; 2-1-4-0
Gallman: 1-1-0; 1-1-3-0

Outlook

We go from the toughest nut to crack (Patriots) among our five to the easiest, as Freeman is the main man here as long as he can avoid the health issues of recent seasons (18 combined games missed from 2017-19).

The last two weeks, Freeman has out-touched Lewis and Gallman combined by a 34-18 margin and has outgained them 155-88 with a 27.5-14.8 edge in PPR points.

The Giants, though, are saddled with one of the league’s worst offensive lines and overall offenses, keeping Freeman in flex-start territory most weeks instead of the RB2 ranks.

Extra points

The Ravens’ aforementioned Jackson is off to a slow start, ranking 14^th among quarterbacks with 113.2 fantasy points through action Sunday. Gardner Minshew (120.7), Ryan Fitzpatrick (120.3), Derek Carr (119.5) and Carson Wentz (113.6) are among the QBs with more points. Jackson still ranks second at the position with his 238 rushing yards on 41 attempts (tied for first), but he only has one rushing score so far. Jackson, though, is mainly falling short as a fantasy passer, ranking 24^th (as of Sunday) with 949 passing yards and tying for ninth with nine TD tosses after leading the league with 36 a season ago.
Jets WR Jamison Crowder has played in only three of the team’s five games, but he’s had at least 10 targets, seven receptions and 104 receiving yards in each outing while snaring a pair of TD passes for a total of 67.5 PPR points. Crowder’s average of 22.5 PPR points per contest, though, trails only the Packers’ Davante Adams (24.1) among league wideouts.
Dalvin Cook, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill are the only players to score a TD in all five weeks so far this season.
Meanwhile, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones, Myles Gaskin, Austin Ekeler, Devin Singletary, Frank Gore, Amari Cooper and Robby Anderson were the only players with at least 60 touches or 35 receptions and one or fewer TDs through Sunday.
The Rams not only have a backfield fantasy conundrum but one at tight end, as well. Tyler Higbee had a monster Week 2 with five receptions for 54 yards and three TDs (28.4 PPR points), but he’s only caught 10-of-12 targets for 122 yards and no scores (22.2 points) in his other four contests combined. Gerald Everett, meanwhile, missed Week 2 but has out-produced Higbee in the other four games, catching 8-of-9 targets for 141 yards and no TDs while scoring on a 2-yard rushing TD (28.3 PPR points).

Fantasy Football Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 5

Reviewing data from several key fantasy options over the last month and assessing their future.

We’ve made it through a quarter of the NFL regular season, and we’re even further along than that, of course, in the fantasy campaign.

So what do to do about the disappointing players on your roster – the underperforming high draft picks who simply aren’t living up to their starter status four games into the season?

Some of these slow starters and underachievers may already have found their way to your bench – or even the waiver wire. But are they worth another starting shot, hanging on to, buying low in a trade or picking up a month into the season in hopes of a reversal of fortune?

To try to answer those very questions, we’re examining eight first-quarter fantasy disappointments this week – two from each of the four main lineup positions – and preaching either panic or patience. There have certainly been more than the usual share of key player injuries, but we’re not including those here, disregarding players who have missed a game or more due to health or pandemic postponement reasons.

Here goes, starting with …

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

Preseason positional ADP: 3rd
Current positional rank: 11^th (through play Sunday) with 99.4 total fantasy points (Huddle performance scoring)

What’s gone wrong: It started in March when elite wide receiver/top target DeAndre Hopkins was dealt to the Arizona Cardinals. And while Watson’s current top trio of wideouts (Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb) is certainly talented, none of the three bring the consistency and dependability of Hopkins, who currently leads the league with 39 receptions on 46 targets.

Hopkins’ absence – and a brutal early-season schedule that’s led to a 0-4 start for the Texans and the firing of head coach/general manager Bill O’Brien – have been enough to knock almost three fantasy points off Watson’s per-game average of a season ago. And a stat resume that includes seven total touchdowns (one rushing) and one 300-yard passing game (exactly 300 Sunday) have dropped Watson down into basement QB1 territory in a year in which passing numbers and scoring are off to record starts.

Early-October approach: Patience

Unless you happened to snare a Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers later in your draft, Watson likely is going to be your best option going forward. He’s a proven dual-threat performer who will be forced to throw often to keep up with a sub-par defense, and Watson should only gain more rapport with his new offensive weapons (Cooks, Cobb and running back David Johnson) as the schedule eases up a bit.

That said, a third straight top-five fantasy finish likely is out of reach, but Watson isn’t going to lose you many fantasy matchups, either, as a steady low-to-mid-level QB1.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Preseason positional ADP: 9th
Current positional rank: 19^th (82.1 points)

What’s gone wrong: Much like Watson, Brees has been forced to go without an elite No. 1 wide receiver in the injured Michael Thomas, but unlike the Texans’ QB, Brees should be getting his top target back any week now after Thomas has missed the last three games.

Thomas’ absence has contributed significantly to Brees averaging 251.5 yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt – both down from recent seasons – as he’s struggled to consistently complete passes downfield and has frequently relied on RB Alvin Kamara’s ridiculous yards-after-catch total (308) to help pad those numbers.

Early-October approach: Panic

Brees’ numbers will get a sizable bump when Thomas returns and returns to form, but if you’re forced to rely on the 41-year-old Brees as your top quarterback in a two-QB format or a 12-team or smaller league, you’re still going to find yourself at a QB disadvantage most weeks.

If that is indeed the case, and are able to sell another owner in your league on Brees’ far-fetched elite potential once Thomas is back, definitely deal him as part of a package for a more productive QB with a higher floor.

Running back

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals

Preseason positional ADP: 14^thCurrent positional rank: 32^nd (32.0 fantasy points, standard scoring)

What’s gone wrong: It’s simply been a lack of production and efficiency as Drake has accounted for 72 of the team’s 101 running back touches but has turned those into only 274 yards (3.8 per touch) and one TD. He’s also experienced a big drop-off as a receiver, averaging 3.6 fewer targets (4.9-1.3) and 2.6 fewer receptions (3.6-1.0) per game than he did in 2019.

Drake had a juicy matchup Sunday against a struggling Panthers defense, but finished with a season-low 35 yards on 13 carries and no receptions before leaving early with a chest injury (revealed on Monday as having the wind knocked out of him).

Early-October approach: Panic

There was a strong summer suspicion that Drake might’ve been overvalued based on his brilliant but small sample (814 total yards and eight TDs in eight games) in the second half of 2019, and that’s looking very much like it could be the case with the evidence so far.

Backup Chase Edmonds has averaged more yards per touch (4.6-3.8), has been much more involved in the passing game (12 more targets, eight more receptions) and has doubled up Drake’s TD production on 43 fewer touches overall. Don’t be surprised if Edmonds sees his share percentage increase going forward.

Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens

Preseason positional ADP: 25th
Current positional rank: 36^th (29.3 points)

What’s gone wrong: Ingram is pacing the Ravens’ running backs in carries (34), total touches (37) and yards from scrimmage (173) so far, but fellow backs Gus Edwards (27-167 rushing) and J.K. Dobbins (15-92-2 TDs rushing) have been much more involved than expected so far.

And, of course, QB Lamar Jackson is as involved as ever as a ball-carrier, leading the team in attempts (39) and yards (235). It’s all helped drop Ingram’s usage from 15.2 touches per game last year to 9.3 so this season, and he’s on pace to finish eight TDs after finishing fourth in the league with 15 scores a season ago.

Early-October approach: Patience

If you overdrafted Ingram hoping for a repeat of his top-10 fantasy running back finish of a season ago, that’s a gamble that isn’t likely to pay off.

But if you got him around his low-end RB2, flex-play ADP, then you’re getting what you paid for. In most any case, you’re not going to bail on the lead back on one of the league’s top rushing attacks – even if his numbers seem certain to fall short of last season’s. Ingram is now a TD-needy flex option, so adjust your expectations accordingly.

Wide receiver

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers

Preseason positional ADP: 13th
Current positional rank: 39^th (28.8 points, standard scoring)

What’s gone wrong: Moore is still getting ample targets (32 to rank 12^th overall among league wideouts), but he’s only reeled in 18 so far for 288 yards and no TDs.

Meanwhile, newcomer Robby Anderson has surprisingly been Carolina’s best receiver so far and much more efficient and productive than Moore, catching 28-of-34 targets for 377 yards and a TD.

Early-October approach: Mild panic

Carolina running backs are still going to be heavily involved in the passing game, having drawn a combined 35 targets so far, and that’s likely only going to increase once Christian McCaffrey returns from his high-ankle sprain.

And unless Anderson’s target share and production fall off markedly, Moore doesn’t look like he’ll be the high-end WR2 he was drafted to be. His fantasy owners are likely going to have to settle for flex production or deal him to another league GM who will play close to a WR2 trade price in believing a Moore turnaround is right around the corner.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

Preseason positional ADP: 27th
Current positional rank: 88^th (11.9 points)

What’s gone wrong: What hasn’t?

Of the 18 players league-wide who had amassed 30 or more targets through Sunday, only one (Green) had a catch percentage lower than 53.3 percent and that was Green at 42.4, bringing in only 14 of 33 targets to date. And even when new QB Joe Burrow and Green have managed to connect, the veteran receiver’s 14 receptions have produced only 119 yards (8.5 per catch) and no TDs.

Prior to Week 1, the 32-year-old Green hadn’t played in a full regular season game since October of 2018, and the rust and/or skills decline is most definitely showing so far.

Early-October approach: All-out panic

Tyler Boyd (28-320-1) and rookie Tee Higgins (12-152-2) have easily been Cincy’s top wide receivers as they’ve caught a combined 71.4 percent of their targets, and that figures to continue.

Meanwhile, there’s nowhere for Green’s efficiency to go but up, but most fantasy GMs can’t afford to wait with higher-upside wideout options available. Green is certainly droppable outside of deep leagues.

Tight end

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Preseason positional ADP: 4th
Current positional rank: 18^th (19.9 points, standard scoring)

What’s gone wrong: Cluster offensive line and wide receiver injuries have played a major role in knocking QB Carson Wentz and the Philly passing game out of whack, and Wentz’s leading target hasn’t been immune.

Only Darren Waller and Evan Engram have drawn more targets among tight ends so far, and Ertz also is tied for third at the position in receptions with 19. But he ranks 15^th in yards (139) as he’s averaging a career-low 7.3 yards per catch and has only caught one scoring pass so far after averaging 6.7 over the last three seasons.

Early-October approach: Complete patience

The targets are the key number for Ertz, and the efficiency figures to pick up when some of the team’s wide receivers – and even fellow tight end Dallas Goedert – get healthier and draw some of the defensive attention away from Ertz.

Evan Engram, New York Giants

Preseason positional ADP: 6th
Current positional rank: 29^th (13.1 points)

What’s gone wrong: Much like Ertz, the usage/targets (30) are there, but the efficiency is most definitely not. Engram ranks 18^th among tight ends with 131 yards (career-low 7.7 yards per reception) and is still looking for his first TD reception.

That’s a glaring issue with the team in general as the Giants have a league-low two TD passes (and three offensive TDs overall) – both Daniel Jones-to-WR Darius Slayton scoring connections in Week 1.

Early-October approach: Patience

Proportionally in fantasy scoring, touchdowns mean more to tight ends than any other position, and there is some definite positive regression headed the Giants’ (and Engram’s) way this season.

If you’ve needed to roster another tight end to get through Engram’s slow start, that’s perfectly understandable, but at the same time, it’s unwise to cast aside an average of 7.5 targets per game at a position of continued fantasy scarcity.

Extra Points

Chargers rookie QB Justin Herbert ranks 10^th at the position with an average of 25.7 fantasy points per game and has had at least 22 in all three starts this season. He has completed 72 percent of his throws for 931 yards (8.7 per attempts), five TDs and three interceptions while rushing for 47 yards and another score on the ground. Still, according to head coach Anthony Lynn, Tyrod Taylor will be reinstated as the team’s starting QB as soon as he’s healthy. Stay tuned …
Coming off back-to-back games in which he amassed 241 total yards and two TDs on 35 touches, Rams RB Darrell Henderson had only 38 yards on nine touches in Sunday in a 17-9 win over the Giants. Henderson was outtouched (14-9) and outsnapped (35-22) by Malcolm Brown, who finished with 56 total yards – matching his total from the previous two weeks. Confusing? Yes. And also consider that rookie second-round pick Cam Akers could be back soon after missing the last two games with a rib injury.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw for a career-high 502 yards on 41-of-58 passing in Sunday’s 49-38 loss to the Browns, but wide receiver Michael Gallup caught only two passes on five targets for 29 scoreless yards. Gallup has caught 13-of-24 targets for 275 yards and a TD on the season good for 46.5 PPR points, but 25.8 of those points (55.5 percent) came in one game (Week 3 at Seattle) and he ranks fifth on the team in both targets and receptions.
Gallup is certainly behind TE teammate Dalton Schultz, who ranks third at the position with 33.9 fantasy points, catching 18-of-28 targets for 219 yards and two TDs. Schultz has essentially done it all in the last three games, too, as he caught only one of four targets for 11 yards in the season opener after Blake Jarwin went down with a season-ending ACL tear.
Finally, how good is 49ers TE George Kittle? After missing the previous two games with a hyperextended knee, Kittle caught all 15 of his targets Sunday night for 183 yards and a TD. So, in just two games, Kittle ranked sixth among all tight ends in PPR fantasy points (49.4) through Sunday and has reeled in 19-of-20 targets for 227 yards and a TD.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 3

A comparison of some fantasy-worthy weapons from 2019 to the start of his season.

The first few weeks of every NFL season introduce us to the fresh faces that will shape fantasy football’s future.

They also start to reveal which of the prior season’s fantasy disappointments and injured players are on track to bounce back and which likely will remain underperformers.

So to lead off this week’s installment of Targets, Touches and Touchdowns, we’re taking a closer look at how of eight of 2019’s more notable disappointments/injured players are faring so far in the new campaign and their prospects for the remainder of the season:

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield

2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 16^th with 311.4 points (16 games)

Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 25^th with 33.2 points

We may soon come to regard Mayfield’s Week 1 struggles against Baltimore (189 yards, TD, interception) as par for the course against a fearsome Ravens defense, but while his Week 2 outing against the Cincinnati Bengals (219 yards, 2 TDs, interception) was much improved from an efficiency standpoint, it’s the overall volume that’s concerning.

The Browns put up 35 points in the shootout win over the Bengals, but Mayfield only attempted 23 passes, ranking 29^th among Week 2 quarterbacks through play Sunday. His aerial yardage (219, 23^rd) and fantasy-point totals (19.4, 20^th) ranked likewise.

Meanwhile, the Browns featured not one, but two top-five Week 2 fantasy backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who combined for 210 yards and three TDs in steamrolling the Bengals.

Through Sunday, Cleveland ranked eighth in league rushing play percentage (49.2) and that’s reflected in Mayfield’s season passing totals as he ranked 24^th in attempts (62), 25^th in completions (37) and 24^th in passing yards (408). He doesn’t add much with his legs, either, with eight yards on five carries so far.

Overall, the Browns’ 353 rushing yards through two games trailed only the Packers (417), and that’s likely what Cleveland is shaping up to be under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, who served as the offensive coordinator of the run-heavy Vikings (48.3 rush-play percentage, fourth in the league in 2019).

Mayfield’s efficiency is bound to improve with defenses forced to focus on the Browns’ ground game, but it’s hard to see Mayfield finishing much higher that what he did a season ago as a mid-level fantasy QB2.

Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford

2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 29^th with 207.6 points (8 games)

Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 17^th with 41.8 points

At the time a back fracture cut his 2010 campaign a half-season short, Stafford ranked among the elite fantasy QBs, and his average of 25.9 points per game wound up trailing only Lamar Jackson (30.9) and Jameis Winston (26.1) at season’s end.

Stafford has looked good, health-wise, so far, but his numbers are well off his early 2019 pace.

Consider, though, that he’s faced two decent in-division defenses (Bears, Packers) that know him well, and – more importantly – he’s been without his top weapon so far in injured wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who’s tentatively due back from a hamstring issue this week.

The Lions defense appears to still have its shortcomings, and that should lend itself to some positive passing game scripts for Stafford. Regard him as an upper-echelon QB2 the rest of the way with some strong streaming appeal.

Houston Texans RB David Johnson

2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 36^th with 107.5 points in 13 games (standard scoring)

Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 21^st with 21.9 points

Johnson was cast aside in Arizona last season, and was readily dealt to the Texans as the Cardinals jumped at the chance to acquire an elite wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. With the latter’s hot start in the desert for the 2-0 Cards, that trade is looking as lopsided as it was made out to be from the outset.

Johnson, meanwhile, had a solid Week 1 (109 total yards, TD) but was stifled (50 total yards) along with the rest of the offense in Sunday’s 33-16 loss to the Ravens.

With Duke Johnson hurt, David Johnson has been Houston’s unquestioned bellcow so far, logging 22 of the team’s 27 running back rushing attempts and all five of the non-wide receiver/tight end receptions.

Duke Johnson should be back soon from his ankle sprain suffered in the opener, but David Johnson still should dominate the backfield touches, and that rarity alone puts him in solid RB2 territory going forward.

Pittsburgh Steelers RB James Conner

2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 34^th with 113.5 points in 10 games (standard scoring)

Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 25^th with 21.9 points

It looked to be déjà vu all over again in the season opener as Conner departed with an ankle injury after 15 snaps and 17 total yards on eight touches.

However, he bounced back solidly with a near-full week of practice and totaled 121 yards and a TD on 18 touches Sunday in a 26-21 win over the Denver Broncos. In all, Conner accounted for 16 of the team’s 19 running back rushing attempts and 18 of the 23 RB touches in the game.

In an offense that’s been rejuvenated with the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger, and should get fortified along the offensive front when linemen return from early-season injury absences, Conner should be a locked-in fantasy starter.

That is, of course, as long as he can stay healthy, which has been an issue the last two seasons when he’s missed a combined five games and left early in a number of others.

Cleveland Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr.

2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 31^st with 128.5 points (standard scoring)

Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 34^th with 15.6 points.

Following a Week 1 dud (three catches for 22 yards on 10 targets) against the Ravens, OBJ bounced back with a 4-74-1 stat line last Thursday on six targets vs. the Bengals.

Still, it was only Beckham’s fifth touchdown grab in 18 games since joining the Browns last season.

On the plus side, he is the team’s only pass-catcher with double-digit targets (16) through two games and has so far managed to avoid the injury bug that has struck a number of other top wideouts around the league.

The aforementioned likely decrease in the Browns’ overall pass volume figures to hurt others on the team more proportionally as OBJ should still get plenty of looks – more than enough to finish as a solid WR2 in a semi-bounce-back season.

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Pittsburgh Steelers WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 63^rd with 73.2 points in 12 games (standard scoring)

Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 13^th with 23.7 points

JJSS struggled through a dismal 2019 with injuries and the failed Mason Rudolph-Duck Hodges backup plan under center.

A marked reversal of fortune was expected for Smith-Schuster, and that certainly looks to be the case so far after he burst out of the gate with six receptions for 69 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the opener.

There’s always the worry that another injury to the 38-year-old Roethlisberger could again sink the Steelers’ offensive ship – Rudolph and Joshua Dobbs are the backups – but as long as Big Ben remains upright, it’s full-speed ahead for Smith-Schuster as a fantasy wide receiver starter.

Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green

2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): Missed season

Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 75^th with 8.0 points (standard scoring)

Green hasn’t been on the same page so far with new QB Joe Burrow as he’s been targeted a team-high 22 times (tied for fourth among all league wideouts) – nine more than any other Bengal – and has caught only eight for 80 yards and no scores.

Perhaps, though, some of this is age and inactivity catching up with the 32-year-old Green who entered the season having not played a full regular-season game since October of 2018.

In any case, Green will need time to get back into game form, and while his days as a WR1 are likely long gone, he still has enough opportunity and talent to take his place on the list of weekly starting wide receiver considerations.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard

2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 30^th with 50.9 points in 14 games (standard scoring)

Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 19^th with 10.7 points

After opening the season with a 4-36-1 stat line on six targets, Howard was a Week 2 letdown with one 11-yard grab on three targets. And that was with Tampa’s top target, WR Chris Godwin, missing the game with a concussion.

Tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate are still there as well, but that trio has combined for only seven receptions for 58 yards on 13 targets (all Howard and Gronk so far), and until we see more usage, the Bruce Arians-being-non-tight-end-friendly stigma is going to ring with some truth.

Howard likely will wind up leading the Bucs’ tight ends in fantasy points, but there’s serious doubt as to whether he will be start worthy on a week-to-week basis in standard-size fantasy leagues.

Extra Points

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen leads the league with 729 passing yards after throwing for 312 and 417 yards in his first two games. In the first 29 contests of his career, including a playoff contest, Allen didn’t throw for more than 266 yards, averaging 197.5 yards per outing. Allen also currently ranks fourth among QBs with 75 rushing yards on 18 carries this season.
Fantasy’s No. 1 wide receiver through Sunday is the Atlanta Falcons’ Calvin Ridley with 47.8 points (63.8 in point-per-reception formats). Since entering the league in 2018, Ridley is tied with Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill with the most receiving TDs with 21. By comparison, Falcons teammate Julio Jones ranks 21^stwith 14 scoring grabs over that span but has 136 more targets and 80 more receptions than Ridley.
On the subject of wide receiver teammate stat comparisons, Dallas Cowboys rookie CeeDee Lamb has five more targets (15-10), six more receptions (11-5) and 57 more receiving yards than Michael Gallup through two games. Fellow wideout Amari Cooper leads the team with 16 receptions for 181 yards on 23 targets.
Through Sunday, Seattle Seahawks RB Chris Carson was the only running back with multiple TD receptions (three) and ranks second at the position with nine catches and 81 receiving yards. In 33 career games entering the season, Carson had 64 receptions for 488 yards and three scores.
After a quiet Week 1, Los Angeles Rams TE Tyler Higbee exploded for three TDs and 54 yards on five catches Sunday in Philadelphia. Since Week 13 of last season, Higbee leads all tight ends with 91.6 fantasy points, catching 51 passes for 616 yards and five TDs in seven games.