The first few weeks of every NFL season introduce us to the fresh faces that will shape fantasy football’s future.
They also start to reveal which of the prior season’s fantasy disappointments and injured players are on track to bounce back and which likely will remain underperformers.
So to lead off this week’s installment of Targets, Touches and Touchdowns, we’re taking a closer look at how of eight of 2019’s more notable disappointments/injured players are faring so far in the new campaign and their prospects for the remainder of the season:
Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield
2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 16th with 311.4 points (16 games)
Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 25th with 33.2 points
We may soon come to regard Mayfield’s Week 1 struggles against Baltimore (189 yards, TD, interception) as par for the course against a fearsome Ravens defense, but while his Week 2 outing against the Cincinnati Bengals (219 yards, 2 TDs, interception) was much improved from an efficiency standpoint, it’s the overall volume that’s concerning.
The Browns put up 35 points in the shootout win over the Bengals, but Mayfield only attempted 23 passes, ranking 29th among Week 2 quarterbacks through play Sunday. His aerial yardage (219, 23rd) and fantasy-point totals (19.4, 20th) ranked likewise.
Meanwhile, the Browns featured not one, but two top-five Week 2 fantasy backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who combined for 210 yards and three TDs in steamrolling the Bengals.
Through Sunday, Cleveland ranked eighth in league rushing play percentage (49.2) and that’s reflected in Mayfield’s season passing totals as he ranked 24th in attempts (62), 25th in completions (37) and 24th in passing yards (408). He doesn’t add much with his legs, either, with eight yards on five carries so far.
Overall, the Browns’ 353 rushing yards through two games trailed only the Packers (417), and that’s likely what Cleveland is shaping up to be under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, who served as the offensive coordinator of the run-heavy Vikings (48.3 rush-play percentage, fourth in the league in 2019).
Mayfield’s efficiency is bound to improve with defenses forced to focus on the Browns’ ground game, but it’s hard to see Mayfield finishing much higher that what he did a season ago as a mid-level fantasy QB2.
Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford
2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 29th with 207.6 points (8 games)
Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 17th with 41.8 points
At the time a back fracture cut his 2010 campaign a half-season short, Stafford ranked among the elite fantasy QBs, and his average of 25.9 points per game wound up trailing only Lamar Jackson (30.9) and Jameis Winston (26.1) at season’s end.
Stafford has looked good, health-wise, so far, but his numbers are well off his early 2019 pace.
Consider, though, that he’s faced two decent in-division defenses (Bears, Packers) that know him well, and – more importantly – he’s been without his top weapon so far in injured wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who’s tentatively due back from a hamstring issue this week.
The Lions defense appears to still have its shortcomings, and that should lend itself to some positive passing game scripts for Stafford. Regard him as an upper-echelon QB2 the rest of the way with some strong streaming appeal.
Houston Texans RB David Johnson
2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 36th with 107.5 points in 13 games (standard scoring)
Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 21st with 21.9 points
Johnson was cast aside in Arizona last season, and was readily dealt to the Texans as the Cardinals jumped at the chance to acquire an elite wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. With the latter’s hot start in the desert for the 2-0 Cards, that trade is looking as lopsided as it was made out to be from the outset.
Johnson, meanwhile, had a solid Week 1 (109 total yards, TD) but was stifled (50 total yards) along with the rest of the offense in Sunday’s 33-16 loss to the Ravens.
With Duke Johnson hurt, David Johnson has been Houston’s unquestioned bellcow so far, logging 22 of the team’s 27 running back rushing attempts and all five of the non-wide receiver/tight end receptions.
Duke Johnson should be back soon from his ankle sprain suffered in the opener, but David Johnson still should dominate the backfield touches, and that rarity alone puts him in solid RB2 territory going forward.
Pittsburgh Steelers RB James Conner
2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 34th with 113.5 points in 10 games (standard scoring)
Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 25th with 21.9 points
It looked to be déjà vu all over again in the season opener as Conner departed with an ankle injury after 15 snaps and 17 total yards on eight touches.
However, he bounced back solidly with a near-full week of practice and totaled 121 yards and a TD on 18 touches Sunday in a 26-21 win over the Denver Broncos. In all, Conner accounted for 16 of the team’s 19 running back rushing attempts and 18 of the 23 RB touches in the game.
In an offense that’s been rejuvenated with the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger, and should get fortified along the offensive front when linemen return from early-season injury absences, Conner should be a locked-in fantasy starter.
That is, of course, as long as he can stay healthy, which has been an issue the last two seasons when he’s missed a combined five games and left early in a number of others.
Cleveland Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr.
2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 31st with 128.5 points (standard scoring)
Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 34th with 15.6 points.
Following a Week 1 dud (three catches for 22 yards on 10 targets) against the Ravens, OBJ bounced back with a 4-74-1 stat line last Thursday on six targets vs. the Bengals.
Still, it was only Beckham’s fifth touchdown grab in 18 games since joining the Browns last season.
On the plus side, he is the team’s only pass-catcher with double-digit targets (16) through two games and has so far managed to avoid the injury bug that has struck a number of other top wideouts around the league.
The aforementioned likely decrease in the Browns’ overall pass volume figures to hurt others on the team more proportionally as OBJ should still get plenty of looks – more than enough to finish as a solid WR2 in a semi-bounce-back season.
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Pittsburgh Steelers WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 63rd with 73.2 points in 12 games (standard scoring)
Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 13th with 23.7 points
JJSS struggled through a dismal 2019 with injuries and the failed Mason Rudolph-Duck Hodges backup plan under center.
A marked reversal of fortune was expected for Smith-Schuster, and that certainly looks to be the case so far after he burst out of the gate with six receptions for 69 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the opener.
There’s always the worry that another injury to the 38-year-old Roethlisberger could again sink the Steelers’ offensive ship – Rudolph and Joshua Dobbs are the backups – but as long as Big Ben remains upright, it’s full-speed ahead for Smith-Schuster as a fantasy wide receiver starter.
Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green
2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): Missed season
Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 75th with 8.0 points (standard scoring)
Green hasn’t been on the same page so far with new QB Joe Burrow as he’s been targeted a team-high 22 times (tied for fourth among all league wideouts) – nine more than any other Bengal – and has caught only eight for 80 yards and no scores.
Perhaps, though, some of this is age and inactivity catching up with the 32-year-old Green who entered the season having not played a full regular-season game since October of 2018.
In any case, Green will need time to get back into game form, and while his days as a WR1 are likely long gone, he still has enough opportunity and talent to take his place on the list of weekly starting wide receiver considerations.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard
2019 fantasy position rank/points (Huddle Performance scoring): 30th with 50.9 points in 14 games (standard scoring)
Current fantasy position rank/points (through Sunday): 19th with 10.7 points
After opening the season with a 4-36-1 stat line on six targets, Howard was a Week 2 letdown with one 11-yard grab on three targets. And that was with Tampa’s top target, WR Chris Godwin, missing the game with a concussion.
Tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate are still there as well, but that trio has combined for only seven receptions for 58 yards on 13 targets (all Howard and Gronk so far), and until we see more usage, the Bruce Arians-being-non-tight-end-friendly stigma is going to ring with some truth.
Howard likely will wind up leading the Bucs’ tight ends in fantasy points, but there’s serious doubt as to whether he will be start worthy on a week-to-week basis in standard-size fantasy leagues.
Extra Points
- Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen leads the league with 729 passing yards after throwing for 312 and 417 yards in his first two games. In the first 29 contests of his career, including a playoff contest, Allen didn’t throw for more than 266 yards, averaging 197.5 yards per outing. Allen also currently ranks fourth among QBs with 75 rushing yards on 18 carries this season.
- Fantasy’s No. 1 wide receiver through Sunday is the Atlanta Falcons’ Calvin Ridley with 47.8 points (63.8 in point-per-reception formats). Since entering the league in 2018, Ridley is tied with Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill with the most receiving TDs with 21. By comparison, Falcons teammate Julio Jones ranks 21stwith 14 scoring grabs over that span but has 136 more targets and 80 more receptions than Ridley.
- On the subject of wide receiver teammate stat comparisons, Dallas Cowboys rookie CeeDee Lamb has five more targets (15-10), six more receptions (11-5) and 57 more receiving yards than Michael Gallup through two games. Fellow wideout Amari Cooper leads the team with 16 receptions for 181 yards on 23 targets.
- Through Sunday, Seattle Seahawks RB Chris Carson was the only running back with multiple TD receptions (three) and ranks second at the position with nine catches and 81 receiving yards. In 33 career games entering the season, Carson had 64 receptions for 488 yards and three scores.
- After a quiet Week 1, Los Angeles Rams TE Tyler Higbee exploded for three TDs and 54 yards on five catches Sunday in Philadelphia. Since Week 13 of last season, Higbee leads all tight ends with 91.6 fantasy points, catching 51 passes for 616 yards and five TDs in seven games.