Fantasy football player analysis tips and advice – Page 24

10 waiver wire targets for fantasy football in Week 1

Even after your fantasy football drafts, here are 10 waiver wire targets going in Week 1.

The fantasy football season is officially here as managers will finally get to tilt, stress, and possibly even celebrate their teams for the first time during the 2022 season.

Even though the draft weekend resulted in all of us walking away with the strongest rosters in our respective leagues, it’s still wise to keep an eye on the waiver wire. Even moves need to be made in Week 1.

We’ll be taking a look at the top available players rostered in ESPN leagues, using the 75% mark as the threshold. If you have any questions about prioritizing a certain player over another, don’t be afraid to hit me up on Twitter (@KevinHickey11). Your questions, comments, and roasts are always welcome!

Without further ado, here are 10 players on the waiver wire to target in Week 1:

Will fantasy owners capitalize on an investment in Tyler Allgeier?

A late-round selection could pay off nicely for those willing to take a chance.

Despite not being chosen until the fifth round, Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier, the 12th of 23 RBs selected, drew some offseason buzz from fantasy football owners because he was stepping into a potentially advantageous situation. Now that training camp and the preseason are in the rearview mirror, however, it’s time reexamine Allgeier’s outlook for 2022.

One of the things that jumped off the page for fantasy owners was Allgeier’s role at BYU as a true workhorse type of back — to that end he carried the ball 276 times as a senior and led FBS in rushing touchdowns with 23. He’s also strong in pass protection, which should make him a viable option in the Falcons backfield regardless of down and distance. Allgeier is a tough, physical runner that drew some comps to Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner.

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The rookie didn’t exactly shine during camp or the preseason, however, carrying the ball 17 times for 68 yards and a touchdown. That included an eight-carry stint in the finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars when both Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams were held out. If the Falcons had seen what they felt they needed to see of out Allgeier to that point, he likely would’ve joined them on the sidelines, which is what we saw with the Houston Texans and fellow rookie running back Dameon Pierce.

At this point, the depth chart has Patterson, who converted from receiver to running back last year, at the top. That was always to be expected, but the team’s most versatile weapon is never going to be a down-in, down-out grinder who runs between the tackles. He had 1,166 offensive yards and 11 combined TDs on 205 total touches a year ago, and it’s hard to imagine they’ll ask much more than that in 2022.

Where Allgeier disappointed is in failing to surpass Williams, a legit journeyman playing for his fourth team in the last five years, for the backup job. By far Williams’ best years came with the Kansas City Chiefs, which included 2019 when he set career highs in carries (111), yards (498), and touchdowns (five), but the 30-year-old did little with the Chicago Bears a season ago. This figures to be one of those occasional situations in which the depth chart won’t match the fantasy depth chart should Patterson get injured. Allgeier is physically better equipped to handle a larger load than Williams.

Fantasy football outlook

Expect the Falcons to mix and match will all three of their top backs, at least initially, with Patterson getting the majority of the touches, while Williams and Allgeier divvy up the more physical work. The BYU product could move into a more advantageous spot if either of the backs ahead of him, both of whom are on the wrong side of 30, break down. Whether that possibility is enough to justify carrying the rookie on your bench depends on the size of your league. He is worthy of an RB4 or No. 5 spot in any design of at least 12 teams and 16 players on a roster.

Revisiting the Baltimore Ravens’ backfield in fantasy football

A reshaped Ravens’ RB stable requires a fresh look.

While we looked at the Baltimore Ravens’ backfield earlier in the offseason, enough changes have happened to warrant another peek. With that in mind, let’s dive back in and update the Ravens’ backfield situation as we head into the start of the 2022 campaign.

Fantasy football: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback breakdown

How long will it take until this situation is turned on its head?

When the Pittsburgh Steelers began their preseason in late July, their quarterback battle was presented as an open competition to replace the retired Ben Roethlisberger between Mitchell Trubisky, Kenny Pickett, and Mason Rudolph, who was the lone holdover in the group. With camp and the preseason now in the books, it’s time to take a look back at how all three performed and where the team looks to be headed for 2022.

Is it officially time to get onto the Isiah Pacheco hype train?

The unheralded rookie is making a name for himself in fantasy circles.

When the Kansas City Chiefs spent a seventh-round selection on running back Isiah Pacheco, nobody blinked an eye — that isn’t surprising for a back that averaged just 3.9 yards per carry and 1.9 yards per catch with Rutgers last year. It was more than just the uninspiring production, as the Chiefs had signed former Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones, who is just one year removed from rushing for 978 yards and seven TDs, and re-signed Jerick McKinnon, the oft-injured back who had put up big numbers during KC’s postseason run.

With Clyde Edwards-Helaire penciled in as the starter, Jones referred to the trio of himself, CEH, and McKinnon as a “1-2-3 punch” during the offseason. That presumably left Pacheco and Derrick Gore, who averaged 5.0 yards per carry as a rookie, to battle for the fourth spot, whether that be on the 53-man roster or the practice squad. Much has happened since.

Pacheco has enjoyed a strong camp, adding value with his play on special teams, while RoJo has failed to impress, putting the veteran squarely on the roster bubble. Gore (thumb), meanwhile, landed on the Reserve/Injured list with a thumb injury and was subsequently released with an injury settlement.

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At this point, Pacheco, who ran for 52 yards on 10 carries in the preseason finale, looks to have secured the No. 3 spot on the depth chart behind Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon. While being RB3 for a team doesn’t usually afford much status, you needn’t think very hard on why there could be extenuating circumstances as both players ahead of Pacheco have had trouble staying on the field.

For CEH, that involves missing three games as a rookie and seven in 2021. An ankle injury was the culprit in his first year, while it was a sprained MCL that felled him last season. Upon returning, Edwards-Helaire was used sparingly, topping 10 carries in a game just twice in seven contests (including playoffs). With such a dicey injury history, the Chiefs may continue to limit his touches to keep him on the field.

McKinnon has an even longer injury history, having missed both the 2018 and 2019 seasons completely after suffering a torn ACL. He has appeared in 29 of a possible 33 games the past two years, though he logged just 25 combined touches in the regular season before starring in the playoffs. Suffice to say that the 30-year-old back isn’t the most bulletproof of options.

Fantasy football outlook

While there are worse spots to be in than the No. 3 back on a high-powered offense, Pacheco’s value will likely be determined in large by the health of the players ahead of him on the depth chart. If Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon can buck the odds and stay on the field, Pacheco could spend his rookie year seeing spot duty and returning kicks. He’s a late-round stash candidate with some viable upside, but again his ability to realize that potential appears out of his control.

Will Dameon Pierce take the fantasy football world by storm?

Pierce has the chops to become the top fantasy rookie running back.

A year ago, there was nobody worse at running the football than the Houston Texans. They finished last in the NFL in rushing yards (83.6 per game), yards per carry (3.4), and rushing touchdowns (eight). Their leading rusher was journeyman running back Rex Burkhead, who at age 31 paced the club with 427 yards on 122 carries — both were career highs for a back who was in his ninth season.

It’s no surprise Houston chose to overhaul its running back room, bidding farewell to pretty much everyone that ran the ball for them in 2021 not named Burkhead, and then adding Marlon Mack via free agency and spending a fourth-round pick on Dameon Pierce. While coming into the preseason it seemed like Mack and Pierce would split the duties, the rookie has had a strong camp, which included a five-carry, 49-yard effort in the preseason opener.

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That performance led to head coach Lovie Smith resting Pierce in the second preseason tilt and saying that he’d seen what he needed to see from the rookie. While Smith has yet to officially name Pierce the starter, the fact that he’s already watching his touches suggests a substantial role. Update: He returned for a final tune-up in the team’s preseason finale and looked the part once again.

A slight uncertainty is how much work Pierce could see in the passing game. He’s not a terrible catcher by any measure, but his pass protection is arguably the weakest area of the rookie’s game.

As it happens, a knock on Pierce coming out of Florida was his background as a complementary back, having never functioned in a true No. 1 role during his time with the Gators. There are two ways to view that, both of which are viable: 1) Pierce is unproven in a featured role, and it’s unknown if he can handle the rigors of heavy use, and 2) the rookie has limited mileage on his odometer and should be fresh, which is something that’s rare for running backs ticketed for the highest level.

One thing that should work in his favor is the lack of talent around him. We already touched on Burkhead, a tangential piece throughout his career, but Mack, the expected RB2, has only carried the ball 32 times in the past two seasons after suffering a torn Achilles in the season opener in 2020. He’s on a one-year, prove-it deal, so nobody is quite sure what he has left. Royce Freeman could also push for a spot, but he hasn’t done much more than Mack over the last two years.

Fantasy football outlook

Although there are some drawbacks with Pierce, most notably his lack of a track record as a lead back, there is currently a lot more to like. He’s been the best back in Texans camp, his backups don’t look like real threats, and he’d be teaming with a young quarterback and a veteran coach, which is a classic recipe for leaning on the ground game. At this point, Pierce has moved up into that midrange RB3 area, and there’s still some upside beyond that designation.

Is George Pickens’ rising fantasy football stock justified?

A torrid offseason has the rookie’s draft stock pointing due north.

For whatever reason, some teams around the NFL consistently do a better job than others at identifying (and cultivating) talent at certain position groups. When it comes to receivers, few, if any, do it better than the Pittsburgh Steelers. In recent years, that includes selecting Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and JuJu Smith-Schuster (now with the Kansas City Chiefs). Before that, Antonio Brown was the gold standard for the position.

While the transition from college to the pros can often be difficult for wideouts, the Steelers have seen consistently solid Year 1 production from their recent early-round selections: Johnson caught 59 passes for 680 yards and five TDs as a rookie, Claypool posted a 62-873-9 line in his first season, and Smith-Schuster accounted for 917 yards and seven scores on 58 receptions.

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With Smith-Schuster (and now-Dallas Cowboys receiver James Washington) both gone from last year’s roster, the door is open for another rookie to step into a significant role in the person of George Pickens, who was selected with the 52nd overall pick. Pickens has good size, checking in at 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, and he should start on the outside opposite Johnson while Claypool handles the slot.

Pickens is a tough cover, showing the ability to fight through press coverage and the speed to separate downfield with the ball in flight. He has some juice with the ball in his hands as well. Pickens has drawn positive reviews in camp and caught three passes for 43 yards and a touchdown in the preseason opener against the Seattle Seahawks; he followed that up with two grabs for six yards in the team’s most recent outing.

Of course, there’s more to producing in the NFL than talent, and Pittsburgh’s still-unsettled quarterback situation will factor into Pickens’ outlook for 2022. Veteran Mitch Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett are the primary candidates, though it’s important to note that the Week 1 starter won’t necessarily be the season-long starter, and you have to think Pickett will take the job at some point. While the combo of Trubisky and Pickett is suspect, is it any worse than whatever was left of Ben Roethlisberger last year?

Fantasy football outlook

Although there’s quite a bit to like about Pickens the player, his situation is suboptimal, both with the uncertainty at quarterback, and the presence of three established options in Johnson, Claypool, and tight end Pat Freiermuth. Can the rookie really step into that offense and leapfrog anyone in that group in the pecking order?

Looking back at the Steelers recent history of young wideouts, while all three players mentioned above had good debuts, none of them posted the kind of numbers that demanded weekly attention in fantasy leagues. While injuries can always change the equation, for now Pickens looks like a WR4/WR5 type that could push for WR3 output. Expecting more than that feels optimistic.

Is Trey Lance the next big thing in fantasy football?

Are we on the verge of witnessing a fantasy explosion in the Bay Area?

While he’s yet to do much at the NFL level, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance has emerged as one of the more interesting Rorschach tests for fantasy owners heading into 2022. Some look at the second-year signal caller and see the athleticism and arm strength to become the next great dual threat at the position. Others see an unproven commodity on a team built to win now and an offense that has spent years marginalizing the position, largely with positive results.

Both viewpoints have merit, though one flaw in the latter is that the team wouldn’t have invested so heavily in acquiring Lance only to treat him like Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0. Still, what is true is that the Niners have the knowledge that they can win without top-shelf play from their quarterback in the back of their minds, so if Lance is having a tough day or playing an unusually stingy defense where the preference would be that he prioritize making the safe play, the team can dial back what they ask.

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One thing that Lance should be able to lean on regardless of circumstance is athleticism, which will allow him to extend plays on passing downs and make him a dangerous weapon on read options and designed runs. Lance ran for 120 yards combined in his two starts last year — that would project out to 1,020 over a full season. While that’s a stretch, his running ability should keep his floor at a decent level (think Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts last year).

Also helping Lance is the playmaking ability of wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who can take a three-yard out and turn it into an 75-yard touchdown, so it’s not as though Lance will need to thread the needle and make amazing throws to rack up numbers. To that end, accuracy is a possible issue. He completed 57.7 percent of his passes as a rookie, albeit in a limited sample size, and improvement in that area would go a long way as he already throws an effective deep ball.

Fantasy football outlook

If you want to talk about a comp for Lance, once again it makes sense to circle back to Hurts, who was a top-10 fantasy quarterback in most scoring systems despite passing for just 3,144 yards and 16 TDs, both of which are numbers one would expect Lance to surpass this season. Whether he’ll rush for 10 scores and 784 yards, as Hurts did, is unclear, but he’s capable.

For now, that fringe top-10 slot feels like the ceiling for Lance, and given his lack of experience it’d be fair to expect the path to such a finish to be full of good weeks and bad. As for the floor, it’s hard to envision him finishing outside the top 20 given his athleticism, head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes, and the talent around him.

He could be drafted as a QB1 as long as you pair him with a competent backup. However, Lance makes for an ideal backup, although that window is closing with an ADP on the rise (9:06, QB13). Proven quarterbacks to pair him with include the likes of Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford — each has limitations or some risk, which ups Lance’s potential worth to your team as well as gives you a safety net to a midround QB investment.

Fantasy football preview: WR Elijah Moore, Jets

Can he capitalize as a sophomore on a promising rookie season?

A second-round pick last year, New York Jets wide receiver Elijah Moore appeared in 11 of the team’s first 12 games before suffering a quad injury on Dec. 5 that landed him on the Reserve/Injured list and cost him the final five games of the season. Despite missing more than a third of the season, Moore led the club in targets (77), receiving yards (538), and touchdowns (five), and he also finished third in receptions (43).

Given the offseason to heal up, Moore is fully healthy now and a central figure in what looks like a potentially dangerous receiving corps that also features first-round pick Garrett Wilson, and veteran Corey Davis, whose first season in Gotham was marred by injuries — he put up a 34-492-2 line in nine games after spending his first four years with the Tennessee Titans. Former second-rounder Denzel Mims and Braxton Berrios, who finished second with 46 catches in 2021, round out the group.

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While that’s a solid unit on paper, there are still questions aplenty about second-year quarterback Zach Wilson (knee), who struggled as a rookie and recently underwent arthroscopic knee surgery that could keep him out of Week 1 and maybe even beyond. Veteran Joe Flacco is a capable backup to be sure, but the team invested the No. 2 overall pick on Wilson, and they need him to make significant strides after he threw just nine touchdown passes a year ago.

Despite some uncertainty about the quality of play at the quarterback position, there’s a lot to like about Moore’s potential this season. Coming out of Ole Miss, the 22-year-old had the right set of skills for a young QB, namely good hands, the ability to get open quickly, and the speed to make things happen after the catch — it’s why he averaged seven targets per game. He’ll operate out of the slot again in 2022 with Davis and Wilson penciled in on the outside.

Fantasy football outlook

Assuming he stays healthy, Moore is a good bet to again lead the Jets’ receivers in multiple categories as his role to work close to the line of scrimmage should earn him plenty of opportunities to make plays. While he’s best suited as a midrange or even low-end WR3, there’s some legitimate upside here, and Moore could make a push toward WR2 territory this season.

Fantasy football preview: RB James Cook, Bills

Just how big of a role will we see from the rookie?

While most of the focus with the Buffalo Bills’ potent offense has been on quarterback Josh Allen and the passing game, the front office has invested a trio of Day 2 picks in the backfield over the last four years. Running back Devin Singletary was the first, being selected 74th overall in 2019, followed by Zack Moss (86th in 2020), and most recently James Cook, who was drafted with the 63rd pick back in April.

That type of asset outlay demonstrates that the Bills are committed to featuring a dangerous ground attack to complement Allen’s dual skill set. To date, neither Singletary nor Moss have put together big years since entering the league, though the former is coming off his best season to date, amassing 1,098 total yards and eight touchdowns; Moss, meanwhile, has appeared in 26 of a possible 33 games in his two years, and he finished 2021 with 542 total yards and five scores.

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Against that backdrop it’s easy to see why people are excited about Cook — it also doesn’t hurt that his older brother, Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook, is among the best the league has to offer. The Georgia product was viewed as one of the top backs in this year’s class, and his skills as a receiver out of the backfield were a big reason why. He’s on the smaller side, though, and doesn’t appear suited to the heavy usage his brother has seen in Minnesota.

At this point, it looks like Singletary will be the lead back, getting most of his work on early downs. That leaves Moss and Cook to battle it out for the No. 2/receiving role. While Moss may hold that spot early on, it seems likely that Cook will overtake him at some point; after all, the lack of development from Moss is part of the reason the Bills felt compelled to select another back early on.

There is one wild card: Duke Johnson. The veteran has over 300 career receptions and played very effectively in a five-game stint with the Miami Dolphins last year, totaling 371 yards and three TDs. If the coaching staff feels Cook (or Moss) isn’t ready, they could plug Johnson into that slot, at least initially. Speaking of the slot, expect to see Cook flexed into that role at times to utilize his athleticism for mismatches, but such a role is hardly reliable.

Fantasy football outlook

Without question, Cook is the shiny object in Buffalo’s backfield. Singletary has never broken out the way fantasy owners hoped he would, which often leads to draft-day backlash, and Moss has done little to endear himself in his two years with the club.

Still, Singletary deserves to be the first of the Bills RBs drafted, as a midrange RB3, while Cook is better suited as your fourth back with tangible upside, particularly in PPR. You can stay clear of Moss.