Fantasy football player analysis tips and advice – Page 25

Is it time to draft Saquon Barkley as a top running back again?

Going as RB12, how much higher should Barkley be going in fantasy drafts?

Back in 2018, New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley amassed 2,028 total yards and 15 touchdowns en route to being named the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. That feels like an awfully long time ago now. A high-ankle sprain cost him three games during his sophomore campaign, but it was the torn ACL he suffered in Week 2 of 2020 that may have permanently altered his career trajectory.

Barkley managed to return for the season opener last year, but he averaged just 2.6 yards per carry in Week 1, which marked the first of six times in 2021 that he’d post fewer than 3.5 YPC in a game. He seemed to be running a bit more effectively as the calendar turned to October, but a sprained ankle on Oct. 10 put him on the shelf for more than a month.

Upon his return Barkley was used judiciously, topping 20 touches in a game just once — that came in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears when he ran for a season-best 102 yards (his lone outing of more than 65 yards), though it’s worth noting that came in 26-point loss where the team only allowed then-quarterback Mike Glennon to throw 11 times, so he was running against soft fronts.

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Much has changed since that miserable January afternoon, including the hiring of new head coach Brian Daboll, who spent the previous four seasons running the Buffalo Bills’ potent offense and oversaw the development of quarterback Josh Allen. On paper, he should be a marked improvement over outgoing offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, though despite coaching upgrades there are still myriad question marks on the field.

Chief among them are the development of Daniel Jones, who has done little in his first three seasons to suggest he’s a legit QB1 at this level, and the health of Barkley, the one-time explosive back that’ll be nearly two years removed from his knee injury when the 2022 season kicks off on Sept. 11.

At this stage, the level of concern with Barkley must be high. He’s battled injuries in three of his four NFL campaigns, and he barely even flashed his pre-injury form in 203 combined touches last season — to that end, the Penn State product didn’t have a run of more than 13 yards over the final five games, and on those rare instances where he’d break one off it wasn’t sustained (e.g., in Week 2 he had a 41-yard run against Washington and finished the day with 57 yards on 13 carries).

Fantasy football outlook

Daboll’s system may be best known most recently for passing success in Buffalo, but this same offensive design produced top-11 ground attacks six of eight seasons under his guidance. Five of those years resulted in no fewer than the sixth-most rushing attempts.

Arguably the biggest thing working in Barkley’s favor is the lack of depth behind him, meaning the ground game should sink or swim with No. 26. At a minimum, opportunity equals value. To his credit, he has been dynamic in the offseason and is finally healthy.

While he feels overvalued as a No. 1 with an ADP of RB12, Barkley should be given every chance to produce at that level. Whether he’s still capable is unclear, and that’s what makes him such a risky selection in the early rounds. Given the overall volatility at the position, his receiving skills, and a drastic upgrade in the coaching department, we can’t argue if you wish to take the plunge.

Fantasy football spotlight: WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

How will the third-year receiver fare in a Trey Lance-led offense?

Few teams have as many fantasy football questions surrounding their offenses as the San Francisco 49ers. With the plan to move away from starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and go with the unproven, small-college talent in Trey Lance, the 49ers are anticipated to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. So how does that impact third-year wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk?

In two seasons, Aiyuk has teased at greatness but has yet to take the next step in terms of consistency. In 12 games as a rookie in 2020, Aiyuk caught 60 passes for 748 yards and five touchdowns. In what may have been a precursor of things to come for Deebo Samuel and the offensive play calling, Aiyuk rushed six times for 77 yards and two touchdowns.

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His production didn’t increase in 2021, but Aiyuk’s impact plays did. In 17 games, he caught 56 passes for 826 yards and five touchdowns. While he caught fewer passes, his 14.8-yard reception average was 2.3 yards more per catch, he saw his yards per target (9.8 yards) increase by two yards per target from his rookie season, catching 67 percent of passes thrown his way.

When looking at Aiyuk’s statistics, the biggest question was how his role changed when Samuel morphed into a hybrid wide receiver/running back. After being in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse during training camp last year, his role in the offense was minimal – in the first six games, he caught just nine passes for 96 yards and one touchdown. In his final 11 games, he caught 47 passes for 730 yards and four touchdowns, ranking 16th among wide receivers in PPR scoring formats and 13th in non-PPR formats in that span. That success has carried over into the start of his third season.

Fantasy football outlook

Aiyuk was the talk of 49ers training camp, catching everything in sight and winning almost every one-on-one battle he faced. While he isn’t the primary topic of conversation in San Francisco at the moment, Aiyuk is a player with a high ceiling for being a midround fantasy pick.

Most analysts see Aiyuk as a WR4 for understandable reasons. The 49ers have an unproven quarterback, an offense that is most successful when it’s running the ball and two players – Samuel and tight end George Kittle – who have received the lion’s share of passing targets. That checks a lot of negative boxes, but it shouldn’t override Aiyuk’s talent.

If the plan is to continue using Samuel as a dual-threat receiver and runner, it’s going to keep Aiyuk on the outside with the potential for more big downfield plays. He is still the clear No. 3 target behind Samuel and Kittle, but his ability to make plays deep downfield make him more of a midrange to low-end WR3 than a WR4. His role in the offense increased as the 2021 season went on and the 49ers started stringing together wins, and that should be the launch point for 2022 – even if there are a slew of questions about how the Lance-led offense will operate.

Fantasy football spotlight: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions

Following a strong close to 2021, can St. Brown pick up where he left off?

Of the 35 receivers selected during the 2021 NFL Draft, only one (Miami Dolphins’ Jaylen Waddle) caught more passes as a rookie than Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown — and the USC product was taken 106 spots after Waddle. St. Brown also finished third in receiving yards, again behind Waddle and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase, and tied for third in receiving touchdowns. There’s no way to view his 90-912-5 showing as anything other than an unqualified success.

While it’s tempting to expect second-year players to build on their debut campaign, St. Brown shouldn’t be viewed as a lock to exceed (or even match) his rookie numbers. For starters, it’s important to keep in mind just how much of his production came during the season’s final six weeks. During that stretch, he was targeted 67 times and accounted for 51 receptions, 560 yards, and five touchdowns. That means in his first 11 games, St. Brown posted a 39-352-0 line.

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You can’t simply chalk up his increased role to improved chemistry with quarterback Jared Goff, either, as St. Brown’s usage exploded when tight end T.J. Hockenson was lost for the season with a thumb injury. Hockenson is fully healthy now, and he does much of his work in those same underneath and intermediate areas as St. Brown.

Detroit has added more talent to the receiving corps, drafting Alabama’s Jameson Williams (knee) in the first round and signing veteran DJ Chark Jr. in free agency. They also picked up Josh Reynolds off waivers last November, and he returns with the benefit of a full offseason to learn the offense to go with his preexisting chemistry with Goff stemming from their time with the Los Angeles Rams. Running back D’Andre Swift will get his fair share of targets, too.

It’s unknown when Williams will make his NFL debut as he’s currently working his way back from a torn ACL suffered in January, but once he does the Lions will suddenly have a deep, talented group of pass catchers — something that wasn’t even close to true coming into 2021, when you could make a strong case that Detroit had the worst group of wideouts in the NFL.

Fantasy football outlook

So, where does all that leave St. Brown? It’s hard to say. Hockenson seems the biggest threat to the second-year receiver’s usage as both project as possession options. Then again, Hockenson and Chark have had trouble staying healthy, and Williams’ return date is unknown.

Still, viewing St. Brown as more than a midrange WR3 seems a bit aggressive, even for PPR leagues. He also has the look of a possible “sell high” candidate early on as he’s someone whose role may decrease as the season wears on. Expect fewer receptions, which isn’t ever a great scenario for a receiver whose entire worth is based on volume.

Fantasy football spotlight: RB Melvin Gordon, Broncos

Just what kind of role and fantasy value can we expect from the veteran?

Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon is betting on himself again, and this time he’s hoping it turns out better than it did when he was the lead back for the Los Angeles Chargers.

The eight-year veteran famously held out the first four games of the 2019 season with the Chargers, demanding a contract extension. Instead, Austin Ekeler emerged as a legitimate rushing threat and Gordon ended up coming back humbled that his demands weren’t even considered. He left the Chargers at the end of the season to join division-rival Denver in 2020.

In his two seasons with the Broncos, Gordon rushed for 1,904 yards, caught 60 passes and scored 20 touchdowns – solid numbers for a player who has been in a timeshare – first with Phillip Lindsay and last year with rookie Javonte Williams. In 2021, both Gordon and Williams had 203 carries in the split backfield, but Gordon ran for 15 more yards (918) and scored three more touchdowns (10).

He was set to hit free agency in the offseason but agreed to an incentive-laden, one-year deal to return to an offense that is expected to be much more potent with new quarterback Russell Wilson coming to the team after two seasons with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater at the helm of Denver’s offense.

While Wilson will add a winning pedigree missing in Denver’s pass game since Peyton Manning retired, the running game will still be a key to the Broncos offense. Even though the team is satisfied with the job Gordon has done, all signs point to Williams being the primary back in the offense and Gordon expected to take on a lesser role than the even split the two players had last season.

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Gordon has proved to be a solid player, but has never broken through to become an elite running back. Despite coming close several times, he has rushed for 1,000 yards only once in his career. However, he has averaged 4.6 yards a carry in two seasons with the Broncos and hasn’t shown signs of slowing down.

If both are healthy, Williams and Gordon will likely share the workload with the hot hand getting more playing time. Seeing as the Broncos are more invested in Williams for the future, Gordon may need Williams to be sidelined to be viewed as an every-week fantasy play.

Fantasy football outlook

Despite Gordon’s inability to reach the level of elite backs, you have to hand it to him for his ability to score touchdowns in close. In his last six seasons, he has tallied 67 touchdowns with season totals of 12-12-14-9-10-10, respectively. Even with his timeshare last season, he scored 10 touchdowns on just 231 touches.

Many will view him as a handcuff for Williams, who is sound RB2. The even timeshare should change somewhat this year but likely not enough to drop Gordon below an RB3 ranking. One can’t deny his ability to score touchdowns, and if he comes close to 10 TDs again, Gordon will have more value than just about anybody in the RB3 category.

Fantasy football outlook: WR DeVonta Smith, Eagles

How does A.J. Brown’s arrival impact Smith’s fantasy prospects?

As a rookie last season, Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith had the tale of two seasons. He finished the year with 64 catches for 916 yards and five touchdowns – leading Eagles receivers in each category. However, his numbers from the first half of the season were a stark contrast to the second half.

The Eagles started the year as the team looked to have balance between the pass and run. In his first seven games, quarterback Jalen Hurts threw 34 or more passes in five of them. Over the final eight games Hurts played, the Eagles threw more than 30 passes just once and averaged fewer than 24 throws a game. That change in offensive philosophy brought down what started as very strong numbers for Smith.

In those first seven games, Smith caught more than five passes in three of them and was targeted more than seven times in four games. In the final 10 games, he was never targeted more than seven times — in half of those games he was targeted five times or less.

The Eagles finished 2021 with the league’s top-ranked rushing offense, which led to success from the team perspective (they went 7-3 in the final 10 games). This hurt the receiving corps in the fantasy realm because, aside from Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, Philly didn’t have a legitimate receiving threat to take the pressure off them. That changed in a big way this offseason.

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When Tennessee failed to get star receiver A.J. Brown signed to a long-term deal, he was traded for Philadelphia’s first-round draft pick. The arrival of Brown brings a much-heralded player to the Eagles offense and will give Hurts an elite weapon to go along with Smith and Goedert.

Many have theorized Smith’s production will suffer as a result of Brown coming on board. While that may be true in terms of target share, it doesn’t mean that Smith’s fantasy value will plummet. As is often the case, when an elite receiver joins a team, defensive attention is heightened for that player. Linebackers drop in coverage on his side of the field to take away throwing lanes and safeties roll over the top to provide double coverage.

Last year that sort of defensive pressure was applied to Smith. This year, it will be Brown more times than not, which will leave Smith single-covered much more often and likely drawing the No. 2 cornerback from an opposing defense as opposed to the No. 1 guy he faced so often in 2021.

Fantasy football outlook

Note: Smith has recently missed practices with a minor groin injury, but it currently shouldn’t be of much concern in fantasy.

The arrival of Brown definitely impacts Smith’s fantasy ranking, but it doesn’t drop him too far because of the potential for more impact plays he could produce by playing with greater efficiency. View Brown as a high-end WR2 because of his ability to win 50/50 balls, especially in the red zone. Smith is a midrange to low-end WR3 who could post numbers as good or better than last season because the opportunity to have mismatches with single coverage. Brown’s arrival doesn’t help Smith’s fantasy value, but it doesn’t kill it, either.

Fantasy football: Buccaneers WRs under the microscope

Tampa’s receiving corps will look a little different in 2022.

Six months ago, things looked bleak for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their quest to repeat as Super Bowl champions had fallen short, and quarterback Tom Brady had subsequently hung up his cleats. The heartache didn’t last long, however, as the 45-year-old reversed his decision in March and immediately returned the Buccaneers to contender status.

That doesn’t mean there haven’t been changes, highlighted by the retirement of Brady’s longtime favorite, tight end Rob Gronkowski, and the signings of free-agent wide receivers Russell Gage (Atlanta Falcons) and Julio Jones (Tennessee Titans). With Brady having passed for 10,949 yards and 83 TDs over his two years with the Bucs, it’s a good time to look at his top options and how the pie might be divvied up in 2022.

Fantasy football: Seattle Seahawks running backs breakdown

Revisiting Seattle’s backfield after Chris Carson’s retirement.

With the trade of Russell Wilson in the offseason, the Seattle Seahawks made it clear that the team is in offensive rebuilding mode and bridging the gap with pedestrian quarterbacks Drew Lock and Geno Smith. When Wilson came to Seattle a decade ago, he wasn’t expected to be the immediate starter but won the job in training camp and forced his way into the starting lineup as rookie.

The feeling was that Seattle’s offense could be built around the running game. Pete Carroll had deep stable of running backs, headed up by Marshawn Lynch. A decade later, it appears the same blueprint is going to be used as the team moves on from not only Wilson but former featured back Chris Carson, who retired from a neck injury. With Rashaad Penny, rookie Kenneth Walker III, DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer, Seattle has the horses to make the new offense work, but will any of them stand up and stand out?

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T.J. Hockenson faces a crucial fantasy football season in 2022

A pivotal year is ahead for the former first-round draft choice.

A year ago, one could make a pretty strong case that Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson was the only legitimate weapon the team had in its passing attack. Fast-forward to now, however, and that is no longer the case thanks to the development of wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (90-912-5), drafting of Jameson Williams (knee), and the veteran additions of Josh Reynolds, who was claimed off waivers last year, and DJ Chark Jr., who was signed from the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency.

As always when talent is added, it serves as something of a double-edged sword for Hockenson heading into his fourth season. On the plus side, the former first-round pick can no longer be the central focus for opposing defenses whenever quarterback Jared Goff drops back to pass. Of course, the downside is that Goff will have more options at his disposal, including Reynolds, who he’s familiar with from their time together with the Los Angeles Rams, and St. Brown, who emerged as a very reliable target over the final month-plus of 2021.

While the pathway to fantasy relevance looks a bit more daunting on the surface for Hockenson, there are some caveats worth exploring. For starters, it’s unclear when Williams will return from the torn ACL he suffered during the National Championship Game in January. Odds are the Lions will be careful with their prized wideout in a year when they’re not expected to compete for a playoff berth, so he may not even be a factor until later in the season.

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St. Brown closed incredibly strong to be sure — 51 receptions (on 67 targets), 560 yards, and five touchdowns over the final six games — but it’s important to remember that Hockenson was lost for the season to a thumb injury in Week 13 and missed the last five weeks. Clearly, the Iowa product’s absence had a lot to do with St. Brown’s massive uptick in usage, and with both guys being possession options there’s no reason to believe Goff would heavily favor one over the other.

Beyond usage, durability is another issue with Hockenson, as he has suffered season-ending injuries in two of his three NFL campaigns. In 2019, it was an ankle issue, and last year’s thumb injury required surgery to correct. He’s healthy now and ready to go, but missing nine games in three years must be viewed as at least a minor red flag, even if the injuries aren’t the sort to cause long-term concern.

Fantasy football outlook

While not a true boom-or-bust type player, Hockenson has moderate variance between his ceiling and his floor. He doesn’t belong in the top five at the position, but he could slide into that next group of five, making him a midrange or low-end TE1.

Fantasy football spotlight: WR Mike Williams, Chargers

Where will Williams’ game head after a career year?

Selected seventh overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams put together a moderately successful four-year run heading into play last season. Over those first four years, he’d topped 1,000 yards (once), reached double-digit TDs (once), and averaged 16.7 yards per catch — that last number cementing his status as a potent downfield threat. Still, he never caught 50 passes in a season heading into 2021 and was no lock to be part of the team’s long-term plans.

Entering the final season of his rookie deal, Williams picked the right time to put together his best year to date, collecting 76 receptions, 1,146 yards, and nine touchdowns. While those wouldn’t be viewed as monster numbers, it was enough to earn Williams a three-year, $60 million deal to remain in LA.

Even in his best overall campaign, it was still an up-and-down performance from Williams in 2021. He opened the year by posting more than 80 yards receiving four times over the Chargers’ first five games and scoring a half-dozen times. After that, however, the Clemson product managed a lone score over his next nine outings with only two games of more than 65 yards receiving.

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Doubtless the team will be looking for more consistency this year, though Williams will almost assuredly be less reliable than veteran wideout Keenan Allen based on the former’s designation as more of a field stretcher. At 6-foot-4, 218 pounds, the sixth-year pro is among the NFL’s best in that department with the size to win on 50/50 balls as well as the speed to get over the top.

Fantasy football outlook

The question for fantasy owners is how much upside still exists with Williams? Unfortunately, that’s hard to say. If you want to argue he has another level to reach, such a case would probably begin with continued development from quarterback Justin Herbert, who is only entering his third year and looks poised to join the NFL’s elite — like Williams, the Oregon alum needs more consistency. The counter would be that Williams, who is entering his age-28 season, is already in his prime physically, and he has continued to offset strong performances with no-shows. Why would Year 6 be any different?

At this stage Williams feels a bit overextended if you’re counting on him to produce WR2 numbers on a weekly basis. If you can grab him as your third receiver, however, there’s certainly enough upside there to deliver big performances and average out as a viable No. 2 over a full season. He’s poised to be overvalued in more casual settings.

Fantasy football preview: RB Miles Sanders, Eagles

After 163 scoreless touches in 2021, what can we expect from the once-promising Sanders?

The Philadelphia Eagles have been looking to install Miles Sanders their long-term featured running back, but the biggest issue since his rookie season in 2019 has been keeping him on the field.

Sanders set a solid standard in his rookie year when he was in a timeshare with Jordan Howard, leading the team with 179 carries for 818 yards, catching 50 passes for 509 yards and scoring six touchdowns. The team thought enough of Sanders to allow Howard to leave via free agency in 2020, but Sanders hasn’t held up in the two seasons since. He missed four games due to injury in 2020 and missed five games last year, which opened the door to the returning Howard, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell to get more reps – and steal touchdowns. Those three backs and quarterback Jalen Hurts combined to score 25 rushing touchdowns, while Sanders ended up with none.

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni didn’t mince words at the start of training camp when asked about Sanders taking reps with the second team in practice, saying, “Miles is our guy. There’s no secret here.”

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As he enters the final year of his rookie contract, Sanders has millions of reasons why he wants to put his stamp on the offense despite seeing a decline in rushing attempts (179-164-137), receptions (50-28-26) and scrimmage yards (1,327-1,064-912), respectively, in his first three seasons.

The Eagles struggled out of the gate last season before committing much more to the run in the second half of the year. With Hurts leading the way in rushing (793 yards), the Eagles vaulted themselves to the No. 1-ranked rushing offense in the league. However, that coincided with Sanders missing five games and Howard, Scott and Gainwell taking turns in the backfield.

If he can stay healthy, Sanders has the potential to be elite. His 5.1-yard career rushing average ranks third in the league among running backs with 400 or more carries, behind only Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor. His 5.66 yards per touch is fourth among running backs, behind Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey and Taylor.

Anyone who has seen Sanders on a regular basis knows that he can make highlight film plays – he had a rush of 23 or more yards in seven of the games he played last season and, in 2020, had touchdown runs of 82 and 74 yards.

There is a concern in Philadelphia that the offense is going to employ a three-back system, because Scott and Gainwell proved themselves worthy of getting more playing time by their performances last year, but Sanders led the team in rushing attempts in 10 of the 12 games he played. The emergence of 2021 rookie DeVonta Smith and the arrival of game-changing wide receiver A.J. Brown gives the Eagles the opportunity to be much more productive in the passing game, which, in turn, could open things up for Sanders in the run game without eight defenders in the box most plays. Even with more passing expected, Sanders’ explosiveness lends to a high per-touch efficiency rating.

Fantasy football takeaway

When it comes to assessing the fantasy value of Sanders, zero touchdowns in 2021 is a cause for concern, which drops him to the lower portion of RB2 status. A risk-reward gamble with the ability to be a RB1, his injury history and the potential of a shared backfield group taps the brakes on any real enthusiasm.