Tag: Matthew Stafford

Prescott’s advancement echoed by top spot in several advanced stats

The Cowboys have a path to the playoffs, but first they will need a victory against a Stafford-less Lions team. Is victory a sure thing?

It has been a polarizing season for the Dallas Cowboys, who enter Week 11 with a record of 5-4. At this point a record like that would seem disappointing, and it should be. The team has been a model of inconsistency and that includes the coaching staff. In one game they look like the best offense in the NFC, but in another they are trailing the New York Jets 21-6 at half-time. However, despite what the record suggests the Cowboys are in first place in their division as they are currently 4-0 against division rivals.

The reality of a 5-4 record does not match Super Bowl expectations, but there is still optimism for the team to make a strong playoff push. Hope springs from the MVP-caliber play of quarterback Dak Prescott, who has helped transform the team’s identity with his passing efficiency. Prescott and the team’s passing attack has been among the best in the league and this is how they rank in the 2019 season with some key metrics:

  • No. 1 in EPA per pass attempt (0.32), per nflscrapR
  • No. 1 in Success Rate per pass attempt (56%), per nflscrapR
  • No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA (29.6%)
  • No. 1 in yards per pass attempt (8.7)
  • No. 1 in yards per play (6.7)

Prescott gets slighted for being on a team that is one win above .500, but he has maintained his elevated level of play throughout the entirety of the season. Here is a chart that demonstrates Prescott’s effectiveness using Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play). EPA measures the value of a given play using down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

This graph illustrates how Prescott has been far and away the most crucial component in the Cowboys’ offense. His worst game of the season in terms of EPA/play came against the New York Giants in Week 9. Even then his performance was still comparable to the league average.

This chart also accounts for non-QB EPA/play. The differences are drastic, but it stresses just how good Prescott’s season has been.

The Stafford-less Lions

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

In their upcoming Week 11 matchup against the Cowboys the Detroit Lions will be without their starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. He is unlikely to play after suffering a back injury against the Oakland Raiders in Week 9. His injury has been diagnosed as fractured bones in his back per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

In his place backup-quarterback Jeff Driskel will get the starting nod for the second game in a row. In his first start with the Lions, Driskel was 27-of-46 passing against the Chicago Bears for 269 yards, a touchdown and an interception in a losing effort. He also added 37 yards on five carries.

Overall, his performance was all one could ask of a backup, and Driskel is experienced in this regard. In a similar situation in 2018 he was tasked with filling in for an injured Andy Dalton for the Cincinnati Bengals over a five-game stretch.

Playoff Projections

Week 11 is shaping up to be a meaningful week for the Cowboys. Their odds of winning the division will get a big boost with a win against the Lions and and a Philadelphia Eagles loss against the New England Patriots. According to FiveThirtyEights’ 2019 NFL Predictions a Cowboys win and an Eagles loss on Sunday gives the Cowboys a 60% chance to win the division. However, a Cowboys loss and an Eagles win would drop the team’s playoff odds to a mere 16%.

In preparation for Week 11, Driskel called his upcoming start against the Cowboys, “business as normal”. For the Cowboys this will not be a game to take lightly. The Lions are facing a string of injuries on both sides of the field, one player that is in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s matchup for the Lions is cornerback Darius Slay. Slay has arguably been his team’s best player in the defensive backfield and if he is unable to play then the Cowboys’ passing attack will be heavily favored.

All signs point to the Cowboys coming away with a victory on Sunday, but victory for the team has hardly been a sure thing. If the Cowboys want to prove they are contenders, they will need to produce a convincing win against a weakened Lions team. As the dust settles, a win here would be step one for the team as they get ready for a final playoff push down the stretch.

Breaking: Matthew Stafford has been ruled out versus Cowboys

At his morning press conference, coach Matt Patricia ruled quarterback Matthew Stafford OUT for this weekend’s game against the Dallas Cowboys.

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At his morning press conference, coach Matt Patricia updated the health status of starting quarterback Matthew Stafford and said he doesn’t “see a scenario” in which Stafford will be able to suit up for the game this Sunday — effectively ruling him out.

Jeff Driskel will get his second start as a Lion.

Stafford injured his back against the Oakland Raiders in Week 9, and after practicing in a limited fashion last week, an MRI revealed a fractured bone and he was not cleared to play in Week 10 against the Chicago Bears.

This week, Stafford has still been unable to suit up for practices. He has been in attendance, helping Driskel with the Lions’ game plan, but it’s been very clear he is not ready to participate at even a minimal level.

Patricia indicated there was a plan in place for Stafford’s recovery but elected not to share what that plan was at this time, instead only saying that Stafford was working to return to the field.

Matt Stafford ruled out from Cowboys-Lions game

The Lions will be without their quarterback when they host the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.

The Dallas Cowboys will not, in fact, have to face the new-and-improved Matthew Stafford. The Texas native and long-time quarterback of the Detroit Lions missed the club’s Week 10 matchup against division rival Chicago.

Stafford has yet to practice this week due to a back injury and on Friday, he was ruled out of Sunday’s contest with the Dallas Cowboys by Detroit head coach Matt Patricia.

Stafford is one of five Lions who did not participate in Thursday’s practice.

The Cowboys will be looking to avoid their second losing streak of the season after falling 28-24 to another NFC North foe, the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Dallas sits at 5-4 and with a tough schedule ahead of them will need to capitalize on the 3-5-1 Lions injury situation. Dallas is suffering injuries along the offensive line, but hardly has the team-wide issues Detroit is suffering from.

Stafford, a Highland Park graduate, has faced the Cowboys four times in the regular season over the course of his 11-year career. The teams have split the contests two apiece, with Dallas winning the last two contests in 2016 and 2018.

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The Cowboys also won the lone playoff matchup with the Lions, from 2015, so they’ve won the last three head-to-head meetings.

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Matt Stafford’s 2019 is more than resurgence, if he plays Cowboys will face his best self

The Dallas Cowboys have a stiff test in front of them Sunday if Stafford plays, despite Detroit’s sub-.500 record.

This past weekend Dallas lost a nail-biter at home to the Minnesota Vikings. Dalvin Cook continued his sensational season, rushing for 97 yards with 64 yards coming after contact. He also added another 86 through the air on 7 catches. On the flip side, Ezekiel Elliott struggled to find running room, as he finished with 47 yards on 20 carries.

With less than two minutes to go and down by four, Dallas faced a 2nd-and-2 at the Minnesota 11 yard-line. The next two plays were handed off to Elliott, with a net result of negative three yards. This was the defining moment of the game as those two plays combined to decrease Dallas’s win probability by almost 25%. It was certainly gut-wrenching to see the ball taken out of Dak Prescott’s hands, given the MVP campaign he’s produced thus far.

The Cowboys still sit atop the NFC East, but they share the same record as the Philadelphia Eagles. With the NFC showcasing a number of competitive teams, each game becomes even more crucial to Dallas’s playoffs hopes. Now the Cowboys must travel to Detroit to face a team that is perhaps better than their 3-5-1 record would indicate.

In a division where the discussion is dominated by Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins’s contract, Matt Stafford is often an afterthought. While Cousins can be a roller-coaster that may win or lose you the game, Stafford may be the model of consistency. Since his second year, the Lions have finished with less than 6 wins just once, but have reached double-digit victories just twice, generally finishing around .500. But with this as the backdrop, it can be easy to miss that Stafford may be having the best statistical year of his career.

When this chart generated I had to double-check my numbers because I didn’t think it was correct.

But according to NFL NextGen Stats, Stafford is averaging over 10 air yards per attempt, a mark well above his previous career-high. Detroit is also averaging nearly .25 EPA per dropback, a result nearly .1 EPA higher than their 2011 season when Stafford was throwing to Calvin-freaking-Johnson.

So what exactly led to this new success for Stafford? Similar to last week, we can use NextGen Stats to take a look.

In 2018, Stafford threw most of his downfield targets to the perimeter, with limited success overall. This season, however, Stafford and the Lions have attacked the deep middle more frequently, and found great success in doing so.

Attacking such a wide surface-area of the field can make their passing game quite dangerous, especially when it comes to their talented receiving corps.

With a Big 3 of Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay (Babytron) and Danny Amendola, one could argue Detroit has one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. And from a statistical perspective, that’s certainly the case.

Unsurprisingly, a large portion of Stafford’s success has come when throwing to these receivers, as they rank near the top of the league in both average depth of target, and EPA per Target (but don’t miss the fact that Dallas receivers are in the same vicinity). Managing this group will undoubtedly rise to the top of Dallas’s priority list. And when we look at how teams have chosen to attack the Dallas Defense, we can see that it will be an intriguing matchup.

Thus far, Dallas’s pass chart looks a lot closer to 2018 Stafford than 2019 Stafford. Opposing offenses have not attacked the deep middle with any frequency, instead choosing to take their deep shots down the right side, which Dallas has defended well to this point. Hopefully this fares well for Dallas this weekend.

With Stafford missing last week’s game, it becomes difficult to predict this week whether he’ll be rusty and still recovering, or fresh and ready to deliver, if he plays at all. Passing trends to this point would indicate that the Cowboys are well-equipped to handle the Detroit attack, but they’ll need better coaching decisions on the offensive-end to realize their potential in the long-run.

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Georgia football has the most NFL players nominated for sportsmanship award

The NFL recognized four former UGA football players on Thursday, the most of any other program.

Recently, the NFL announced the nominees for the Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award, and four former Georgia football players made the cut.

Among the finalists were former Dawgs Nick Chubb (Browns), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Thomas Davis (Chargers), and Ben Jones (Titans). The award considers a players sportsmanship to opponents on the field as well as things like community service and impact.

The Dawgs had far and away the most candidates of any single college. In fact, the only other school that had multiple finalists was Alabama, as former players Julio Jones and Dalvin Tomlinson were finalists.

This recognition further proves the unparalleled level of activism and community reach that has been and continues to be preached in the Georgia program. Congrats to these Dawgs!

Injury Report: Cowboys entire offensive line hurting ahead of Week 11

The Thursday injury report for the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions leading up to their Week 11 matchup.

The Dallas Cowboys most recent loss has put their backs against the proverbial wall. With that in mind, all hands on deck will be required, not only due to the increased significance of the remainder of the games to be played, but because injuries are mounting. Here’s the latest injury report ahead of the Week 11 game against the Detroit Lions.

There’s positive movement in some aspects. WR Amari Cooper, who’s been dealing with a plethora of nagging lower body injuries this season, was upgraded to limited after not practicing Wednesday. Also limited was guard Zack Martin, and CB/core special teamer C.J. Goodwin.

The rest of the offensive line continues to be banged up. While LT Tyron Smith has participated in both practices this week despite his ankle, his bookend La’el Collins has yet to get any work with ailments to both his knee and his back. Of course, guard Connor Williams was not available due to the arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent earlier in the week, knocking him out of commission for the time being.

At this point, it’s going to largely be on the medical staff to get the players ready to go for game time. Hopefully this rest early in the week will help those who need it play at a high level on Sunday, even without much practice.

The situation is more dire for the Detroit Lions, as their QB Matthew Stafford has yet to practice after missing last week’s game. A back injury is threatening to keep him out of this upcoming contest as well. CB Darius Slay, who did not appear on the official injury report on Wednesday, was downgraded to limited due to an issue with his neck.

Kirk Cousins moves up 3 spots in Week 11 QB rankings

Cousins is now 15-10-1 in 26 games with the Vikings.

After throwing for 220 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in Sunday night’s 28-24 win over the Cowboys, Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins moved from 14th to 11th in NFL.com’s QB rankings.

The Vikings improved to 7-3 with the win and Cousins is now 15-10-1 in 26 games with the Vikings.

Here’s a snippet of what was written about Cousins:

Cousins made some big throws when the Vikings needed it on Sunday night, snapping his streak of losses in prime-time games against teams that entered the contest with a winning record at six. He enters this weekend’s tilt with the Broncos having thrown 142 consecutive passes without an INT (longest active streak), and his 124.4 passer rating since Week 5 is the NFL’s best in that span.

On the season, Cousins has thrown for 2,437 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions. That puts him on pace for 3,899 yards, 28 touchdowns and just five interceptions.

Per Pro Football Focus, Cousins grades as the league’s ninth-best quarterback with a score of 82.7.

To round out the NFC North, Aaron Rodgers ranks fifth, Matthew Stafford ranks sixth and Mitchell Trubisky ranks 28th.

Matthew Stafford still out Thursday, Ty Johnson and Romeo Okwara return to practice

Detroit Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford was still not able to practice on Thursday while running back Ty Johnson and edge rusher Romeo Okwara returned to the field.

The Detroit Lions were back on the practice field on Thursday preparing for a Week 11 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Ford Field, and once again they were without Matthew Stafford.

It wasn’t all bad news for the Lions though as running back Ty Johnson and edge rusher Romeo Okwara were able to return to the field for limited practices.

Let’s take a closer look at what we know.

Thursday’s changes to the participation report

RB Ty Johnson (concussion) — upgraded to limited
DE Romeo Okwara (groin) — upgraded to limited
LB/S Miles Killebrew (concussion) — upgraded to full
NT John Atkins (wrist) — upgraded to full
CB Darius Slay (neck) — downgraded to limited practice
S Will Harris (quad) — downgraded to limited practice
DT Damon Harrison (groin) — veteran rest day

Johnson getting back on the field is a step in the right direction for him clearing the NFL’s concussion protocol, but he’s not out of the woods yet. Johnson is in the later stages of the process, but doctors’ examinations and time may still be needed.

Okwara has been unable to practice for the last seven days, but a return to the field today suggests he has a chance to play this weekend. Tomorrow’s participation level will get us closer to knowing his game status but he may be headed to a game-time decision.

Like Johnson, Killebrew appears to be moving through the league’s concussion protocol. From an outside perspective, it appears as he only needs to pass an independent medical exam to be cleared for game day.

Atkins’ injury appears to only be minor as he has missed very little time because of it. He’s on track to play.

Slay was not on the injury report for one day, then suffered a neck injury that limited him today. He continues his season of injury and his status will be worth monitoring tomorrow.

Harris was also a full participant on Wednesday, then a quad injury limited him today. Mid-week injuries tend to be problematic, so this is another situation worth paying attention to tomorrow.

Harrison practiced in full yesterday and is getting his weekly rest day today, as is typical since injuring his groin. Expect him to be a limited or full participant on Friday and carry a questionable designation into the game.

Not Practicing Thursday

QB Matthew Stafford (back, hip)
RT Rick Wagner (concussion)
DL Da’Shawn Hand (ankle)
S Tracy Walker (knee)

Stafford missing another practice is not ideal but it’s also not surprising. At this time, there is no timetable for his return to game action.

Wagner not taking the field today suggests his status for this weekend’s game is very much in doubt, as passing the league concussion protocol will be difficult. If he is unable to play, Tyrell Crosby will continue to start at right tackle.

Hand and Walker continuing to miss practices indicate they may be long shots to play this Sunday. There’s still time, but these look like they are the type of long-term injuries that the Lions like to take their time with.

Limited

P Sam Martin (abdomen)

Martin is limited once again, but with no other punter on the roster, he appears on track to play.

Full participants

DT Mike Daniels (foot)
DT A’Shawn Robinson (ankle, thumb)
WR Danny Amendola (hand)

Good news for all three participants here, as consistency here, equals progress.

Matthew Stafford is Lions nominee for 2019 Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award

Detroit Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford is the team’s nomination for the 2019 NFL’s Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award.

Detroit Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford is the team’s nomination for the 2019 NFL’s Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award.

Each of the NFL’s 32 franchises nominates a player who exemplifies “outstanding sportsmanship on the field” and previous Lions’ nominees include Don Muhlbach, Haloti Ngata, Glover Quin, and Calvin Johnson.

Created in 2014, this Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award has recognized five winners over that time — Larry Fitzgerald, Charles Woodson, Frank Gore, Luke Kuechly and Drew Brees.

According to a press release from the NFL:

The winner of the Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award is determined by a vote of current NFL players. From the eight finalists, each team’s players will submit a consensus vote of their choice for the winner. As in Pro Bowl voting, a team cannot vote for its own player.

The award is presented each year to an NFL player who best demonstrates the qualities of on-field sportsmanship, including fair play, respect for the game and opponents, and integrity in competition.

The NFL will host an NFL Honors show on Saturday, February 1 — the evening before Super Bowl LIV — where the winner will be announced. This ceremony will be televised on FOX.

This year’s nominees are listed below:

Detroit Lions Breakdown podcast, episode 128: Cowboys Week 11 preview

Detroit Lions Breakdown podcast, episode 128: Cowboys Week 11 preview, is now available to download and listen.

This week on the Detroit Lions Breakdown podcast the guys discuss the Matthew Stafford injury, last week’s loss to the Chicago Bears, if the season is lost or salvageable, review the latest news from Allen Park and preview the Lions Week 11 game against the Dallas Cowboys.

The DLB podcast is a weekly conversation with Lions Wire’s own Erik Schlitt and his co-host Joe Kania. This week they discuss:

You can follow the Detroit Lions Breakdown Podcast (@LionsBreakdown) and it’s hosts Schlitt (@Erikschlitt) and Kania (@JoeKania_DLB) on Twitter, with a Facebook page on the way.

The podcast is available to listen at the DetroitLionsBreakdown.com website and is available to download and subscribe to on multiple podcast platforms, including Itunes, Google Play, Stitcher, among others.