Highlights, player tracking of Cowboys biggest Week 11 plays

Dissecting the biggest plays in the Dallas Cowboys’ 35-27 victory against the Detroit Lions using EPA and Win Probability metrics.

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys picked up a much needed victory as they beat the Detroit Lions 35-27 in a close game. The Cowboys dominated on the offensive side of the ball while their defense continued to struggle, this time against a Lions team led by backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. The team’s defense has been a let down despite some stellar play from the defensive line. That being the case, the burden is on Dak Prescott to lead the offense in high scoring games, and on Sunday he once again proved more than capable.

It was an explosive game for both passing offenses as each team’s pass defense was lackluster.

Here are the biggest plays of the game in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) with data via nflscrapR. EPA measure the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

Make sure to check out the multiple views of the player tracking data for unique insight into how the plays unfolded.

The Plays

No. 1: Ezekiel Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, FUMBLE

EPA: -4.2. DAL WP Shift: 48% -> 39%

Another game, another turnover on the Cowboys’ opening drive. The team has been known for their slow starts in 2019 and turnovers have been one of the biggest culprits. On the first rush of the game Elliott fumbled after being gang tackled by a pair of Lions. It was edge rusher Trey Flowers that forced the ball out with a recovery from linebacker Jarrad Davis.

The turnover proved to be a costly one as the Lions were able to turn it into their first score of the game. It was a seamless opening drive for the Lions who would start at their opponents’ 28-yard line. After a short drive, running back Bo Scarbrough scored on a 5-yard rush up the middle.


No. 2: Dak Prescott sacked by Devon Kennard for a loss of 10 yards

EPA: -2.4. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 34%

The Cowboys’ third drive of the game looked to be a promising one. Beginning at their own 14-yard line, they would slowly inch their way into a scoring opportunity. The drive spanned 14 plays, 79 yards gained and five first downs. Eventually the Cowboys found themselves at the Lions’ 2-yard line on a goal-to-go situation. On third down it was Lions edge rusher Devon Kennard that would generate the sack on a well-timed blitz call for a loss of 10 yards.

After the sack the Cowboys would have to settle for a 30-yard field goal try from Brett Maher putting the score at 7-3 late in the first quarter.


No. 3: Prescott pass short middle to Tony Pollard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 3.5. DAL WP Shift: 44% -> 55%

Trailing by four points to start the second quarter the Cowboys would get their first touchdown of the game in style. Much like in their previous possession, their fourth drive would also be a long one. This drive covered 7 plays, 70 yards gained and three first downs. Their success was rewarded when Prescott connected with Pollard on a 21-yard reception for the score. Pollard flashed his explosive potential by forcing a missed tackle in route to his first career receiving touchdown.

[protected-iframe id=”048e7048ed25613bd084c8693e37639e-105974723-50443307″ info=”https://gamestream.sportradar.com/embed/1bc055cb-72a7-4e18-a56c-6cd71d77fde0?auto=false” frameborder=”0″ style=”width: 700px; height: 545px” scrolling=”no”]

Continue…

[lawrence-newsletter]

The Honolulu Blueprint: Keys to a Lions victory over the Cowboys in Week 11

The Honolulu Blueprint: Identifying several key strategies the Lions will need to do, in order to be victorious over the Cowboys in Week 11.

If the Detroit Lions (3-5-1) want to shock the world and come away with a victory over the Dallas Cowboys (5-4) in Week 11, they’ll need to follow this week’s Honolulu Blueprint and execute several key strategies.

Let’s take a look at the key components the Lions need to take advantage of in Week 11.

Lean on Jeff Driskel’s strengths

By this point, we all know Matthew Stafford has been ruled out and the Lions will be starting Jeff Driskel for the second consecutive week. Last week, Driskel wasn’t notified he would get the ball until the morning of the game, but this week it’s been clear from Monday, Driskel would start again.

The extra time should afford the Lions the opportunity to prepare a game plan suited to Driskel’s strengths, which are listed below per Lions Wire’s own Jeff Risdon’s evaluation:

  • Very athletic and creative outside the pocket
  • Above-average arm strength and zip on deeper throws
  • Mechanics don’t break down on the move
  • Improved his footwork and developed a more consistent release point that really helped his accuracy
  • Enthusiastic presence on the sideline and in the huddle

The Lions opened last week’s game with a read-option and Driskel gave the ball to J.D. McKissic for a 10-yard run. As the game progressed, Driskel would keep the ball on five runs, amassing a team-leading 37-yards (one more than McKissic). Expect the Lions to continue relying on Driskel’s 4.56 speed to move the ball on the ground.

They also need to test the Cowboys deep, like they did in the clip below, which encompasses all five of Risdon’s positive attributes into one play:

This play was one of only three deep shots (passes over 20 yards) taken by Driskel on the afternoon — and the only one he connected on — but there is enough potential there for the Lions to increase the frequency of plays like this.

Keep hitting the safety valves

When a young quarterback is in trouble he often relies on tight ends and running backs to alleviate pressure. Last week, Driskel leaned on his running backs early and tight ends late, totaling 19 targets, with 14 of them being completed for a collective 100-yards.

Similarly, last week, the Cowboys allowed the Vikings tight ends and running backs to complete 17 of 20 passes for 136 yards, two touchdowns, and a 2-pt conversion.

While the Lions should test the Cowboys secondary with the deep ball, players like McKissic and T.J. Hockenson need to step up and provide Driskel with reliable and consistent options in the passing game.

Time of possession/Fast start

The Dallas Cowboys offense is potent, checking in as Football Outsider’s top DVOA offense, earning the No. 2 rushing and No. 3 passing spots on offense. There’s no doubt the Lions defense will be challenged but the Lions offense can help in two major ways: time of possession and scoring early.

In the Cowboys’ four losses, they lost the time of possession in three of them, and in all four games, they trailed heading into the locker room at halftime:

  • Saints held the ball for 36:04 and led 9-3 at the half
  • Packers 36:43 and led 17-0 at the half
  • Jets only had the ball for 27:57 but got out to a 21-6 at the half
  • Vikings 33:27, ahead 14-0 after 1st quarter and 17-14 at the half

Bottom line: keep the Cowboys’ offense on the sidelines.

Focus on Ezekiel Elliot 1st, Dak Prescott 2nd

Elliot is one of the best running backs in the league and while the Lions have historically had trouble containing him, that shouldn’t deter the Lions from focusing on slowing him down first.

While the Cowboys rushing attack is aggressive and efficient, they failed to break 50 yards rushing in two of their losses (Saints and Vikings), averaging 2.3 yards per attempt in both games.

The Lions run defense has struggled all season, but in two of their last three games, they did not allow a rushing touchdown and held their opponent to 80 (Giants) and 81 yards (Bears) on the ground — with 3.3 and 3.4 yards per attempt average respectively.

If the Lions can build on their recent success, it’ll go a long way to helping them earn a win.

Attack the weakness on the OL

The Cowboys offensive line is one of the best in the NFL and features three first-round picks (Tyron Smith Zack Martin, and Travis Frederick), one of the highest-paid right tackle in the league (La’el Collins, who should’ve been a first-round pick if not for a timely investigation) and a third-round pick in Connor Williams.

Williams, the Cowboys starting left guard, currently has a knee injury and will miss this game. He will be replaced by Xavier Su’a-Filo, and according to Pro Football Focus, it’s a major downgrade — Su’a-Filo has a PFF grade 24.2 points lower than Williams.

Expect the Lions to attack Su’a-Filo with a variety of combinations. Look for the Lions to initially deploy Damon Harrison over him, and when Su’a-Filo gets used to the power, they will shift Trey Flowers inside to try and expose him with athleticism. Additionally, look for Jarrad Davis to attack Su’a-Filo’s A-gap responsibility to keep him guessing.

Be opportunistic

There are only two teams in the NFL who have the same numbers turnovers as takeaways — the Lions and Cowboys both have 12 of each.

Whoever wins this battle will have a big advantage. Look no further than the results from these teams last three games:

  • Lions lost to Bears – lost turnover battle 1-0
  • Lions lost to Raiders – lost turnover battle 2-0
  • Lions beat Giants – won the turnover battle 1-0
  • Cowboys lost to Vikings, lost turnover battle 1-0
  • Cowboys beat Giants, won the turnover battle 3-2
  • Cowboys beat Eagles, won the turnover battle 4-1

It’s not definitive, but win the turnover battle and you have a decisive advantage towards winning the game.

Detroit Lions Breakdown podcast, episode 128: Cowboys Week 11 preview

Detroit Lions Breakdown podcast, episode 128: Cowboys Week 11 preview, is now available to download and listen.

This week on the Detroit Lions Breakdown podcast the guys discuss the Matthew Stafford injury, last week’s loss to the Chicago Bears, if the season is lost or salvageable, review the latest news from Allen Park and preview the Lions Week 11 game against the Dallas Cowboys.

The DLB podcast is a weekly conversation with Lions Wire’s own Erik Schlitt and his co-host Joe Kania. This week they discuss:

You can follow the Detroit Lions Breakdown Podcast (@LionsBreakdown) and it’s hosts Schlitt (@Erikschlitt) and Kania (@JoeKania_DLB) on Twitter, with a Facebook page on the way.

The podcast is available to listen at the DetroitLionsBreakdown.com website and is available to download and subscribe to on multiple podcast platforms, including Itunes, Google Play, Stitcher, among others.

Mailbag: What lies ahead for the Detroit Lions?

This week’s Lions Wire mailbag is looking forward to 2020, talking draft, free agency, and potential coaching changes.

The Detroit Lions 2019 season appears to be over, or at least, Lions’ fans think so.

While I try to stay optimistic, I will admit that things aren’t looking pretty. The Lions are down a starting quarterback, lack any depth at running back, and the defense looks to be really struggling. They might not be able to salvage the season, but maybe there will some glimpses of hope for the future.

This week’s mailbag is looking forward to 2020, talking draft, free agency, and potential coaching changes.

What linebackers in the draft or potential free agents fit the Lions’ size and style for next season? — @RICH_K13

I’ll be honest, I’m not too studied up on this year’s draft prospects, so I’ll focus on upcoming free agents.

[Editor’s note: Keep an eye on Ohio State’s Malik Harrison]

If the Lions want to go out and spend some big money on a free agent linebacker, 2020 would be a good time to do it.

One name that stuck out was Shaq Thompson of the Carolina Panthers. The 26-year-old linebacker will hit free agency fresh off of his rookie contract, and though he has stated that he’d like to remain with the Panthers, the appeal a big payday could lure him to a place like Detroit.

As we’ve seen, defensive players want to play for head coach Matt Patricia. Maybe Thompson will feel the same way. He fits the bill for what the Lions want in a linebacker; he can rush the passer, he can drop into coverage, he can make plays on the ball. He would thrive in Patricia’s defense.

Rank the players in order of likelihood to make the 2020 roster: Darius Slay, Sam Martin, Jarrad Davis, Taylor Decker. — @ZugIreland

Tier 1: Slay, Martin, Davis, Decker.

Slay, Martin and Decker are more than likely locked into starting roles heading into next season. Davis has struggled, but it’s far too early to give up on him.

All four will be Lions next season.

How many wins would the Lions have to get to in order for Matt Patricia to get one more year? — @rayray1222

Look, this season hasn’t been pretty, but at this point, any losses the Lions get are more reflective of them losing their starting quarterback, not the coaching.

I think next year will be Patricia’s make-or-break season. I could see a mid-season firing if his 2020 campaign has a rough start.

Chances of us drafting a QB like Jalen Hurts in this upcoming draft? Is it time to start looking at Stafford’s successor? — @TheBlackPH30N1X

I don’t think Detroit will be moving on from Stafford any time soon. But, like general manager Bob Quinn said, drafting quarterbacks is ‘good football business’.

Especially after looking at the most recent game against Chicago, I do think the Lions should invest some of their day 2 draft capital on a backup quarterback.

Grooming a quarterback behind Stafford for the next few seasons would be a smart move by Quinn. We saw how bad things are when we don’t have our starter.

I’m currently looking at Utah State’s Jordan Love. I see a lot of Stafford’s game in him, so he’d be my perfect draft prospect for Detroit.

Who are the most eligible candidates for defensive coordinator if the Lions move on from Paul Pasquiloni? — @ZugIreland

One name that I like right now is Dallas Cowboys defensive backs coach Kris Richard.

Known for helping put together Seattle’s Legion of Boom, I think Richard could do a lot to help Detroit’s defense. This team has big holes at both cornerback and safety heading into next season, and a guy like Richard would be a valuable asset come draft time.

He served as Seattle’s defensive coordinator from 2015 to 2017, so he’d be reuniting with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell as well.

Who do you think the Lions should draft with their number-one draft pick this coming April? — @B_Lake007

The Lions may be drafting top-ten, but definitely not number one.

I’d go linebacker or defensive end if I were Bob Quinn. As I said earlier, I’m not caught up on this year’s top prospects, so ask again in March.

Thanks to everyone who submitted their questions this week!

Be sure to get those questions in next week, and give me a follow while you’re at it, on Twitter @maxgerbs.

Lions week 10 snap counts: Jarrad Davis thrives on lower snap counts

Detroit Lions Week 10 snap counts observations include Jarrad Davis’ having his best game of the year in a game where he saw his lowest snap counts of the season.

When examining the Detroit Lions (3-5-1) snap counts from Week 10, one glaring thing stood out: Jarrad Davis’ had his best game of the year in a game where he saw his lowest snap counts of the season.

That and more takeaways from this week’s snap counts below:

No Matthew Stafford means it’s Jeff Driskel time

Jeff Driskel — 83, 100-percent

With Stafford’s status moving forward very much in question, we may see a lot more of Driskel in the near future.

Guard rotation declines, Tyrell Crosby steps up

LT Taylor Decker — 83, 100-percent
LG Joe Dahl — 75, 90-percent
C Frank Ragnow — 83, 100-percent
RG Graham Glasgow — 79, 95-percent
RT Rick Wagner — 28, 34-percent
RT Tyrell Crosby — 56, 67-percent
OG Kenny Wiggins — 15, 18-percent

Wiggins saw one series filling in for Glasgow and one for Dahl, down from the two series he had seen in previous weeks.

Crosby took over for Wagner when he left the game due to a concussion and Crosby will likely hold down this position as Wagner moves through the NFL protocol.

The Lions continued to use six offensive linemen sets — four times in this game — beginning with Crosby in his typical role. But when Crosby was needed to take over at right tackle, Wiggins took over this role for the final three snaps.

Ty Johnson’s exit forces J.D. McKissic into the spotlight

J.D. McKissic — 58, 70-percent
Paul Perkins — 15, 18-percent
Ty Johnson — 12, 14-percent
Nick Bawden — 11, 13-percent

Depending on the severity of Johnson’s concussion, we could see a roster move at the position sometime this week. Regardless of what happens, McKissic has proven himself as Driskel’s preferred safety valve — he saw seven targets in the passing game — and will likely be holding down an extensive role moving forward.

Three receiver sets see the majority of the snaps

Kenny Golladay — 78, 94-percent
Marvin Jones Jr. — 76, 92-percent
Danny Amendola — 56, 67-percent
Marvin Hall — 11, 13-percent

Golladay and Jones rarely left the field, while Amendola has now put together four games in a row of over 60-percent of offensive snaps.

Hall’s numbers were down a bit from normal, but with Driskel at the helm — and coaches keeping things simple for him in his first start — it’s not overly surprising. As Driskel gets more comfortable in this offense, expect him to take more deep shots downfield — he has the arm strength to do it — and that means more opportunities for Hall.

Tight end snaps declining

T.J. Hockenson — 48, 58-percent
Jesse James — 28, 34-percent
Logan Thomas — 18, 22-percent

With the Bears’ weakness covering the tight end, these numbers were surprisingly low. Over the last month, Hockenson has seen about two-thirds of snaps, while James has leveled off at around one-third.

Lions DL snaps down due to injury

A’Shawn Robinson — 29, 51-percent
Damon Harrison — 25, 44-percent
Mike Daniels — 21, 37-percent
John Atkins — 20, 35-percent
Kevin Strong — 12, 21-percent

Every player on this list either (save Atkins) entered the game with an injury, suffered an injury during the game, or both. Expect these numbers to increase with their health.

Flowers snaps rise, Kennard’s decline

Trey Flowers — 50, 88-percent
Devon Kennard — 39, 68-percent

With no Romeo Okwara available and injuries on the interior, Flowers saw a significant increase to snap count — his highest of the season.

Kennard has seen his snap percentage drop from the 90-percentile to the 80-percentile, but this week was a season-low. The Lions use a heavy rotation at linebacker in this game and Kennard’s usage reflected that.

Jarrad Davis sees lowest snaps of season, thrives

Jarrad Davis — 44, 77-percent
Christian Jones — 41, 72-percent
Jahlani Tavai — 38, 67-percent

Davis, like Kennard, saw his lowest snap percentage of the season, but Davis responded with his best game of the year. Maybe the light bulb turned on for Davis in this one, but with less responsibility on his plate — Tavai was calling plays at different points during this game —  he responded in a positive way.

Jones snaps stayed close to his average snap total, while Tavai’s streak of seeing over 50-percent of defensive snaps is now at five games in a row. Tavai’s increase in responsibilities and consistent snap counts suggest a larger role for him in the near future.

3 and 4 corner sets rise

Rashaan Melvin — 57, 100-percent
Darius Slay — 55, 96-percent
Justin Coleman — 46, 81-percent
Mike Ford — 15, 26-percent

Slay and Melvin were back to their starting cornerback roles, while Coleman settled back into his typical nickel corner role. Coleman was replaced on the field at times by Ford in an apparent effort to exploit a speed-on-speed matchup.

3 safety sets return to average

Will Harris — 57, 100-percent
Tavon Wilson — 56, 98-percent
C.J. Moore — 22, 39-percent

Despite Tracy Walker missing another game, the Lions returned to their standard three safety rotation usage, with undrafted rookie Moore taking on his highest defensive snap counts of the season.

Moore also led the team in special teams snaps. As usual, he and Dee Virgin are one-two in third-phase snaps.

Special teams

C.J. Moore — 27
Dee Virgin — 26
Jalen Reeves-Maybin — 23
Steve Longa — 23
Nick Bawden — 22
Logan Thomas — 22
Mike Ford — 20
Will Harris — 19
Jamal Agnew — 17
Paul Perkins — 16
Christian Jones — 11
Amani Oruwariye — 9
Tavon  Wilson — 9
Jesse James — 6
Jahlani Tavai — 5
Justin Coleman — 5
Jarrad Davis — 4
Devon Kennard — 4
Trey Flowers — 4
Marvin Hall — 4