Better than average: Wide Receivers

Small group of wideouts that were tops against secondaries and most are changing for 2022

Every NFL team will use at least two, if not three, wide receivers in each game and as such, logging a top-8 performance against a secondary is already a feat since that defense likely faced about 50 starting wideouts in a season. This is a very impressive feat and turning in the top performance is truly elite.

The top-8 fantasy performances against each defense were arrayed and each wide receivers were recorded for how often their fantasy points were in the top-8, the top-4 and highest allowed versus that specific defense last season.

Adding up those numbers yields a “better than average” (BTA) score since they are better than the average wideout that faced a defense. It also weights the performances since a No. 1 also counts as a top-4 and a top-8.

Better than average: QB | RB | TE

Bottom line: This is about how well a receiver did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them. This is a true measurement of how effective wideouts are when the schedule influences are removed.

TM	NAME	BTA score	Top 1	Top 3	Top 8
LAR	Cooper Kupp	25	4	9	12
KC	Tyreek Hill	18	4	6	8
GB	Davante Adams	17	3	6	8
SF	Deebo Samuel	14	2	3	9
TB	Chris Godwin	13	1	5	7
MIN	Justin Jefferson	11	1	2	8
TB	Mike Evans	11	1	4	6
MIA	Jaylen Waddle	10	0	4	6
SEA	Tyler Lockett	10	2	3	5
BUF	Stefon Diggs	9	1	2	6
CIN	Ja’Marr Chase	9	1	3	5
DAL	CeeDee Lamb	9	1	2	6
LAC	Mike Williams	9	0	3	6
LVR	Hunter Renfrow	8	0	1	7
PIT	Diontae Johnson	8	0	2	6
WAS	Terry McLaurin	8	1	2	5
DET	Amon-Ra St. Brown	7	0	2	5
MIN	Adam Thielen	7	1	2	4
TB	Antonio Brown	7	1	2	4
TEN	A.J. Brown	7	1	2	4
BAL	Marquise Brown	6	0	1	5
CAR	D.J. Moore	6	1	1	4
CIN	Tee Higgins	6	1	2	3
DAL	Amari Cooper	6	1	2	3
HOU	Brandin Cooks	6	1	1	4
ATL	Russell Gage Jr.	5	0	1	4
DEN	Courtland Sutton	5	0	2	3
IND	Michael Pittman Jr.	5	0	1	4
LAC	Keenan Allen	5	0	1	4
PHI	DeVonta Smith	5	0	1	4
SEA	DK Metcalf	5	0	1	4

The interesting part of this is that Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams were two of the top-3 in this metric and yet left for a team with a downgrade at quarterback. Jaylen Waddle proved to be a force as a rookie, but now he has Hill cutting into expectations.

Tyler Lockett also fared well here but also experiences a downgrade at quarterback. Given the sheer volume of wideouts that face NFL defenses, the top wideouts here are truly elite. But many of these receivers have different situations this year with other receivers added to their team (Waddle, Hunter Renfrow, Amon-Ra St. Brown) and several have moved to new teams (Hill, Adams, A.J. Brown, Marquise Brown, Amari Cooper).

Only Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel provided most of their games as top-8 performances versus defenses.

TM	Wide Receivers	Top 1
LAR	Cooper Kupp	4
KC	Tyreek Hill	4
GB	Davante Adams	3
SF	Deebo Samuel	2
SEA	Tyler Lockett	2

Of the five wideouts that managed more than one top performance allowed by an NFL defense, only Kupp still has the same situation. Hill and Adams moved on, and Lockett and Samuel will have new quarterbacks this year.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 10

Making sense of recent fantasy football performances.

Week 9 was the crazy, unpredictable, off-the-rails week we see every NFL season.

Ten of 14 pointspread underdogs covered and four touchdown-plus favorites lost outright.

The fantasy realm certainly wasn’t spared from the wackiness:

Journeyman New York Jets backup Josh Johnson was pressed into action Thursday night and wound up scoring more fantasy points (29.6) than Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow combined (26.3).
Arizona Cardinals No. 2 running back James Conner paced all players, regardless of position, with a career-high 40.3 fantasy points.
Elijah Moore, Olamide Zaccheus and Malik Turner were three of the eight wide receivers who finished the week with 20 or more fantasy points.
The top 10 highest-scoring fantasy tight ends of the week included a trio of Los Angeles Chargers in Stephen Anderson, Donald Parham Jr. and Jared Cook.

Like we said, unforeseeable unruliness.

But which of the eye-catching (or eyesore) Week 9 fantasy performances are we buying as indicators for the rest of the season, and which are we brushing off as one-week abnormalities?

Let us delve deeper into five of the more notable fantasy performances from the wild and wacky Week 9 …

Patrick Mahomes finished 24th among quarterbacks on the week with 12.1 fantasy points (Huddle Performance scoring).

Mahomes somehow got outscored by his quarterback counterpart in the same game, and that was Green Bay Packers second-year QB Jordan Love, who completed only 19-of-34 passes for 190 yards and a touchdown for 15.8 fantasy points himself.

Over the last four seasons, Mahomes’ 12.1 fantasy points Sunday marked his regular-season, full-game low point and only the fifth time in 62 career complete games, including the postseason, in which he’s failed to total at least 15 points.

BUYING or brushing off: Stunningly, two of those five aforementioned sub-15-point outings have come in the last three weeks and were sandwiched around an 18.75-point game in Week 8.

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Mahomes has thrown for two TDs and two interceptions in those three games and has averaged fewer than 5.89 yards per attempt. His career average is 8.1 yards per attempt.

Mahomes, obviously hasn’t been connecting for nearly as many big plays, but even the rest of the Chiefs’ aerial game is off as he’s completed 60.4 percent or fewer of his passes in each of the last three weeks — again well below his 65.9 career completion percentage.

Even more alarming, Mahomes and the Chiefs have the toughest remaining fantasy QB schedule in the league, according to The Huddle’s nifty Strength of Schedule tool.

Add it all up, and we’ve come to the shocking conclusion that Mahomes is no longer a set-it-and-forget-it, locked-in QB1 every week, depending on the week and your other options.

Joe Burrow scored 14.2 fantasy points in Sunday’s 41-16 loss to the Cleveland Browns, coming in 23rd at the position for the week.

It was a season-worst showing for the second-year Cincy QB, who posted only his second sub-20-point outing of the campaign.

Burrow entered the game on a serious fantasy roll, having thrown for three touchdowns and posted at least 24.85 fantasy points in three straight games. But even though the Bengals defense surrendered a season-high 41 points and the opposing Browns came into the contest allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Burrow couldn’t keep up. He failed to throw a TD pass for the first time in his last 12 games, dating back to last season, while tossing a pair of interceptions.

In eight previous games this season, Burrow had at thrown for at least two TDs.

Buying or BRUSHING OFF: The Browns, fresh off a division home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and dealing with the Odell Beckham Jr. distraction last week, clearly entered Sunday’s game as a team on a mission and played like it.

Burrow was sacked a season-high-matching five times and was hit 12 times while completing 28-of-40 pass attempts for 282 yards.

Go-to wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase was targeted a game-high 13 times, but they only netted six completions for 49 yards and his third touchdown-less outing of the season.

In reality, though, Burrow is going to endure some ups and downs. He’s a second-year QB, who’s made 19 total starts with last season’s knee injury, and even with Sunday’s poor showing, he remains fantasy’s 10th-best quarterback with an average of 23.2 points per game.

And pairing Burrow’s talent with that of his young supporting cast, there’s simply too much upside to be had with the second-year passer.

James Conner scored a trio of TDs en route to 40.3 fantasy points — three more than any other player in Week 9, quarterbacks included.

Conner has now played in 59 career games, but Sunday’s showing produced a career pinnacle in fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) as he topped 30 points for only the fifth time in five seasons.

To get there, it took 21 rushes for 96 yards and two TDs and five catches on five targets for 77 yards and another score to power the Cards’ 31-17 road upset win of the division-rival San Francisco 49ers. Starting QB Kyler Murray and leading wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green were all absent Sunday due to injury/illness while — more significantly for Conner — starting running back Chase Edmonds left after only one 3-yard carry with what was later diagnosed as a high-ankle sprain.

That left Conner to shoulder the backfield load and he wound up accounting for 26 of Arizona’s 36 running back touches. Conner entered the contest averaging 12.4 touches, 49 total yards and 11.5 fantasy points per game.

BUYING or brushing off: With his three TDs Sunday, Conner leapfrogged the injured and idle Derrick Henry and standout wideout Cooper Kupp for the league touchdown lead with 11.

On Monday, word then came down that Edmonds would miss multiple games — likely to include an injured reserve stint — with his high-ankle sprain. Prior to Sunday’s one-carry game, Edmonds averaged 13.1 touches and 79.8 yards from scrimmage over the Cards’ first eight contests.

Now Conner moves into the lead role on the league’s second-highest scoring offense (32.8 points per game) with Eno Benjamin in relief. And if Sunday’s explosion is any kind of indication, Conner will be a weekly RB1 start as long as Edmonds remains sidelined.

Conner hasn’t been in that role since 2018 in his second season with the Steelers when he finished sixth among running backs with 280 total PPR points (21.5 per game).

L.A. Chargers WR Mike Williams totaled 7.8 fantasy points Sunday and wound up 46th in Week 9 scoring at the position.

In the Bolts’ 27-24 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Philly, Williams caught two of his five targets for 58 yards and no TDs. One of his catches went for 49 yards, and he did finish second on the team in receiving yards and targets, but four other L.A. pass-catchers finished with more fantasy points, including the three aforementioned tight ends.

And if Williams’ five-target, two-reception stat line sounds familiar, it’s because it is. Those have been his exact totals from each of his last three games, totaling six catches, 104 yards, no scores and 16.4 fantasy points during that span.

In four of his first five games (Weeks 1-3 and 5), Williams had at least nine targets, seven receptions, 82 receiving yards and 22.1 PPR points while totaling six TD grabs in those four contests.

But in his other four outings (Weeks 4 and 7-9), Williams hasn’t more than five targets, two receptions, 58 receiving yards or 7.8 fantasy points while failing to score.

Buying or BRUSHING OFF: Just barely as we’re holding off for another game or so to see if things turn around.

Williams’ numbers certainly are trending in the wrong direction, and there have been reports that a nagging knee issue has helped slow him down in recent weeks.

But we remain big believers in the Chargers’ passing game. QB Justin Herbert ranks fourth with 211 total completions and fifth at the position with an average of 26.4 fantasy points per outing — and the 6-foot-4, 220-pound Williams looked way too good over the first five games of the season to believe he’s now only a WR 3/4.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth totaled 21.4 fantasy points Monday night to wind up pacing all Week 9 tight ends.

The rookie tight end reeled in five of his team high-matching six targets for 43 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Steelers’ 29-27 win over the Bears.

It was the third straight game with at least 12.8 fantasy points for Freiermuth, who has totaled 16 receptions for 145 yards and three TDs during that span, which includes Pittsburgh’s Week 7 bye. It’s also an average of 16.2 fantasy points during that stretch, which is tops among tight ends who have played multiple games since Week 6.

BUYING or brushing off: Most definitely.

It’s the tight end position, first and foremost. Nothing more needs to be added there.

And it’s also the perfect offense for a tight end to thrive in.

Aging QB Ben Roethlisberger entered the week ranked 25th among passers with a 6.6-yard average per attempt, and one of his prime short-area targets of recent seasons, WR JuJu Smith Schuster, was lost for the season in Week 5 with a shoulder injury.

Enter the Penn State rookie who has stepped up and showed out in the Steelers’ three straight wins.

Put it all together, and that makes Freiermuth a TE1 going forward.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 7

Examining touchdowns scored thus far in 2021 to find useful fantasy nuggets.

Touchdowns. Tuddies. Scores. Paydirt. Sixers. TDs.

Whatever you want to call them, they’re under the TTT fantasy microscope this week.

More specifically, we’re looking at who’s scoring them and who’s not, and what it has meant for fantasy so far — and going forward — as we approach midseason.

We’re doing a touchdown stat analysis of all of the major fantasy positions, including defense, and we start (as usual) with the …

Quarterbacks

Total TDs (passing + rushing)

Patrick Mahomes 19 (18 passing-1 rushing), Tom Brady 18 (17-1), Josh Allen 17 (15-2), Kyler Murray 17 (14-3), Dak Prescott 16 (16-0), Matthew Stafford 16 (16-0), Justin Herbert 15 (14-1), Joe Burrow 14 (14-0), Aaron Rodgers 14 (12-2), Kirk Cousins 13 (13-0), Jaylen Hurts 13 (8-5), Jameis Winston (13 (12-1)

Fantasy takeaways

Mahomes, the current positional leader in average fantasy points per game with 31.8 (Huddle Performance scoring), is on pace for 54 total TDs and 51 passing scores, which would eclipse his career highs from 2018 when he paced QBs with 494.1 fantasy points (30.9 per contest). KC’s less-than-formidable defense, which is surrendering 29.3 points per game, is prodding Mahomes to keep the pedal to metal late into games.
The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (fifth with an average of 28.6 fantasy points) and the Panthers’ Sam Darnold (10th with 24.6) are the only current top-10 fantasy QBs who don’t rank among the top 12 in total TDs. Jackson (11 total TDs), though, leads all QBs with 392 rushing yards and is averaging a career-best 281 aerial yards per game, while Darnold (12 total TDs) is tied with Hurts for the positional lead with five rushing scores.
Prescott (seventh with 26.9 fantasy points per outing) and Stafford (eighth with 26.4) are the only top-10 fantasy QBs without a rushing score. Prescott has run for 70 yards on 22 carries, while Stafford has 26 yards on 18 rushes. Both QBs, not coincidentally, are coming back from injury-marred 2020 seasons.

TD pass percentage leaders

Winston 10.3 percent, Stafford 8.0, Burrow 8.0, Russell Wilson 8.0, Mahomes 7.4, Prescott 7.4, Murray 7.2, Allen 6.5, Rodgers 6.5, Brady 6.4

Fantasy takeaways …

Playing on the run-heaviest team in the league (54.74 percent of total plays), the Saints’ Winston ranks 31st in the league with 116 passing attempts but is tied for ninth with 12 TD tosses. Winston, who has had games of five and four TD passes so far, is averaging only 178.4 passing yards per contest and ranks 17th among QBs who have played three or more games with 21.4 fantasy points per outing.
Stafford on Sunday enjoyed his third game this season with three or more passing scores and has had a banner start to his first season in Sean McVay’s Rams offense. In his 12 seasons with the Lions, Stafford had a TD pass percentage of 4.6, with his full-season high-water mark coming in 2011 when he had a 6.2 rate, throwing for a career-high 41 TDs. That’s the only season in which he’s had more than 32 scoring passes.
Burrow has thrown multiple TD passes in all six of his games this season after doing so in only four of his 10 games as a rookie a year ago when he ranked 28th in the league with 3.2 TD toss percentage.

Running backs

Total TDs (rushing + receiving)

Derrick Henry 10 (10-0), Austin Ekeler 7 (4 rushing-3 receiving), Ezekiel Elliott 6 (5-1), Aaron Jones 6 (4-2), James Conner 5 (5-0), Darrell Henderson 5 (4-1), Kareem Hunt 5 (5-0), Cordarrelle Patterson 5 (1-4), James Robinson 5 (5-0), Jonathan Taylor 5 (4-1)

Fantasy takeaways …

Ekeler, fantasy’s second-ranked back with 21.5 points (point-per-reception scoring) per game, has already set a career season high with his four rushing TDs. Ekeler is on pace to score 20 TDs, which would smash his 2019 career high of 11 — a total that included a running back-best eight receiving TDs.
Henry, who has finished either first or second among RBs with 17 and 18 touchdowns, respectively, the past two seasons, is on pace for a whopping 28 scores in 2021. He is averaging a league-most 29.6 total touches per game — a full seven touches more than any other player.
Patterson already has as many TDs (5) in five games this season as he totaled in his previous three seasons combined and is tied with the Packers’ Jones for the RB lead with four receiving scores. Patterson’s season career high for TDs was set back in his rookie season of 2013 with the Vikings when he had nine total (four receiving, three rushing and two on kickoff returns).

Most total touches with 1 or fewer TDs

Mark Ingram 90 touches (1 TD), Chuba Hubbard 85 (1), Alexander Mattison 83 (1), Chase Edmonds 79 (0), Javonte Williams 79 (1), Tony Pollard 76 (1), Miles Sanders 75 (0), Devin Singletary 73 (1), Christian McCaffrey 68 (1), A.J. Dillon 58 (1), Sony Michel 58 (1)

Fantasy takeaways …

It’s not surprising to see Edmonds high on this list as Conner is now the team’s goal-line back with all five of his rushing scores coming from inside the opposition’s 5-yard line on seven total carries. Edmonds has had one carry inside the enemy 5-yard line but still is the only running back ranked among the top 34 in total PPR points (17th with 73.9) who has yet to score a TD.
It’s interesting to see both of the Panthers’ top backs listed here with McCaffrey and the rookie Hubbard combining for two TDs on 153 touches to date. Nineteen of those 153 combined touches and both of those TDs for the Carolina backs have come in the red zone. The aforementioned Darnold, meanwhile, has logged six red-zone rushes and has scored on five of them.
Sanders has yet to find his way into the end zone after scoring six TDs in each of first two NFL seasons. Sanders has a minus-one yard on nine red-zone rushes this season, including minus-five on four inside-the-5-yard-line carries. The second-year QB Hurts, meanwhile, has stolen the Philly close-in thunder with 47 yards and five TDs on 14 red-zone rushes. Sanders is 46th among RBs with an average of 6.5 fantasy points.

Wide receivers

Total TDs (receiving + rushing)

Cooper Kupp 7 (7 receiving, 0 rushing), Mike Williams 6 (6-0), DeAndre Hopkins 6 (6-0), Marquise Brown 5 (5-0), Ja’Marr Chase 5 (5-0), Tyreek Hill 5 (5-0), D.K. Metcalf 5 (5-0), Adam Thielen 5 (5-0), Antonio Brown 4 (4-0), Amari Cooper 4 (4-0), Mike Evans 4 (4-0), CeeDee Lamb 4 (4-0), Deebo Samuel 4 (3-1), Emmanuel Sanders 4 (4-0)

Fantasy takeaways …

Kupp, whose two-TD game Sunday against the Giants was his third of the season, also leads the league in targets (68), red-zone targets (12), and is tied with Davante Adams and Hill with a league-most 46 receptions. His seven TD grabs this season already is the second-highest total of his five-season career, trailing only the 10 he had on 134 targets in 2019 when he finished fourth among wideouts with 270.5 PPR points.
Thielen finished third a season ago with 14 touchdown catches thanks to his mega-efficient red-zone production, reeling in 16-of-19 targets for 115 yards and 13 scores inside the opposition’s 20-yard line. He’s at it again this season, catching all six of his red-zone targets for 37 yards and four TDs.
In his last 11 games, including three last postseason, the Bucs’ Brown has caught 57 of 82 targets for 765 yards and 10 TDs — an average of 17.6 PPR points per outing. He’s averaging 19.1 through five games played in ’21.

Most targets with 1 or fewer TDs

Keenan Allen 58 targets (1 TD), Brandin Cooks 57 (1), Jakobi Meyers 52 (0), Michael Pittman Jr. 46 (1), DeVonta Smith 44 (1), Calvin Ridley 42 (1), Chase Claypool 42 (1), Laviska Shenault 41 (0), Darnell Mooney 39 (1), Tyler Boyd 38 (1)

Fantasy takeaways …

Allen has notched six or more TD grabs in each of his previous four seasons, but the Chargers’ target leader ranks fifth on the team with his one scoring reception so far. Fellow wideout Mike Williams’ ascendance (six TD catches on 33 receptions and 56 targets) has hurt Allen as he currently ranks 26th with an average of 14.5 fantasy points per game.
Since the start of last season, Diggs leads the league in targets (224) and receptions (164) and ranks second in receiving yards (1,998) but is tied for 16th with 10 TD grabs in 22 regular-season games. Among wide receivers, Diggs still ranks third, though, in total PPR points (423.9).
Meyers has 174 targets since the start of the 2019 season — 83 more than any other Patriots wide receiver or tight end — but famously is still waiting on his first NFL TD. During that span, including the postseason, only the Panthers (40) and Jets (39) have thrown fewer TD passes than the Patriots’ 44 in 39 games.

Tight ends

Total TDs (receiving + rushing)

Dawson Knox 5 (5 receiving-0 rushing), Rob Gronkowski 4 (4-0), Travis Kelce 4 (4-0), Mo Alie-Cox 3 (3-0), Mark Andrews 3 (3-0), Noah Fant 3 (3-0), Hunter Henry 3 (3-0), Juwan Johnson 3 (3-0), Dalton Schultz 3 (3-0), C.J. Uzomah 3 (3-0)

Fantasy takeaways …

Knox (finger) has been a surprise at fantasy’s shallowest position as he’s already doubled his career TD total six games into the season. Essentially he’s been the 2021 Robert Tonyan, ranking 17th at the position with 24 targets and 12th with 21 receptions but leading the way with five scoring receptions.
A high ratio of TDs to targets also is inflating the fantasy stocks of the Bengals’ Uzomah, the Colts’ Alie-Cox and the Saints’ Johnson … all have three TDs on 18 or fewer targets so far.
Gronk has missed the past three games with a rib injury but still is tied for second among 2021 tight ends with his four scoring grabs on 21 targets and 16 receptions. In his last 11 games, Gronkowski has eight TDs on 50 targets and 32 catches — meaning one of every four catches is counting for six points.

Most total targets with 1 or fewer TDs

Mike Gesicki 43 targets (1 TD), Kyle Pitts 36 (1), Tyler Conklin 30 (1), George Kittle 28 (0), Dan Arnold 26 (0), Jonnu Smith 25 (1), Cole Kmet 24 (0), Evan Engram 21 (1), Pat Freiermuth 20 (1), Robert Tonyan 20 (1)

Fantasy takeaways …

On the other side of the touchdown ledger, the Dolphins’ Gesicki ranks fifth in 2021 tight end targets (43) and sixth in receptions (30) but has only one scoring grab to show for it. From 2019-20, he had 11 TDs on 174 total targets.
Niners star Kittle began his career with 12 TD catches in his first three seasons, but with a string of injuries limiting him to 12 games since the start of last season, he’s only added two more touchdowns since on 91 targets and 67 receptions.
As expected, regression has hit the Packers’ Tonyan and Patriots’ Smith hard this season with one TD apiece so far. In 2020, they finished ranked tied for first (11) and third (9), respectively, a year ago in tight end TDs, both with 52 touches or fewer.

Defensive/special teams

Non-offensive TDs (defensive TDs + special teams TDs )

Cowboys 3 (3-0), Buccaneers 2 (2-0), Jaguars 2 (0-2), 13 teams with 1 apiece

Fantasy takeaway …

The top annual fantasy team defenses/special team units typically feature multiple return-score TDs, and this season is no exception. The top eight 2021 D/STs, according to Huddle Performance scoring, all have at least one non-offensive touchdown, led by the league-leading Cowboys (57 total fantasy points) with their trio of interception-return TDs.

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 5

Six fantasy football stats that should surprise even the most experienced gamers.

NFL Week 4 is now in the books, which means we are roughly a quarter way through the 2021 fantasy season.

So with a decent sample size also in the ledger, here’s a six-pack of the more surprising fantasy-oriented statistics we’ve come across so far.

Here goes, starting with …

83.4 — total fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) for Atlanta Falcons RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Not only does that total easily lead all Falcons skill-position players — a contingent that includes top-five-round fantasy draft picks Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts and Mike Davis — but it trails only the Tennessee Titans’ Derrick Henry (101.5) and the Los Angeles Chargers’ Austin Ekeler (84.4) among all running backs and ranks behind just the Los Angeles Rams’ Cooper Kupp (102.6), the Kansas City Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill (102.3), the San Francisco 49ers’ Deebo Samuel (95.9), and the Carolina Panthers’ D.J. Moore (89.7) among wide receivers as he’s eligible at both positions on several fantasy league host sites.

More improbably, Patterson’s 83.4 fantasy points have come on just 49 total opportunities, 45 touches and 97 offensive snaps (a 34.4 percent share of Atlanta’s total offensive snaps).

And with his 354 total yards from scrimmage and five total TDs, it already ranks as the sixth-best fantasy season in nine years for the 30-year-old journeyman who’s playing on his fifth team.

Sure, scoring a TD on every ninth touch, as Patterson has this season, isn’t exactly sustainable, but this impressive start very likely will just lead to more snaps, opportunities and touches going forward for the 6-foot-2, 220-pound Patterson — especially with the lead back Davis struggling with low-efficiency averages of 3.1 yards per rush and 3.6 yards per touch.

It’s also been a slow start for Ridley so far with the wideout averaging career lows in yards per reception (9.4) and yards per target (6.1) while scoring one TD. The promising Pitts, meanwhile, is still awaiting his first trip to the end zone while going through the typical rookie tight end struggles with a 57.7 catch percentage on 26 targets.

5 — Rushing TDs for Carolina Panthers QB Sam Darnold, which not only paces all quarterbacks but is tied for the overall league lead.

Perhaps you’ve caught some of the clever “Cam” Darnold mentions, referencing a certain run-heavy former Carolina Panthers quarterback.

Now, sure, Darnold has as many ground scores as he does passing TDs so far, but his overall rushing figures aren’t exactly Newtonian numbers with Darnold only ranking 20th among quarterbacks with 52 rushing yards to date and averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. The five rushing TDs also have matched his career total entering the season after three campaigns with the New York Jets.

Let’s not short Darnold’s aerial start, though, as he’s passed for the sixth most yards (1,189) in the league so far while averaging a career-high 8.1 yards per attempt. His current passer rating (95.4) and QBR (62.7) are easily on track to hit career high-water marks.

Still, no QB has compiled more rushing fantasy points so far than Darnold’s 35.2 as he ranks fifth overall at the position with 114.7 total fantasy points. And while he doesn’t figure to continue scoring on 25 percent of his rushing attempts going forward, his 3.4 TD pass percentage is due some positive regression with the weapons at his disposal in Carolina as it ranks below his 3.7 percentage during his Jets’ tenure.

At the least, Darnold has put himself in the low-end QB1 conversation and looks to be quite the find as a last-ditch late pick in two-quarterback leagues.

0 — Running backs, tight ends or wide receivers currently ranked among the top 12 at their respective fantasy positions for the league’s highest-scoring (and only undefeated) team, the 4-0 Arizona Cardinals.

Notice we didn’t mention quarterback as Kyler Murray trails only the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes (132.1) with 128.6 fantasy points (Huddle PPR scoring). Murray has had a hand in 12 of the Cards’ 16 offensive TDs with nine passing and three rushing scores to rank second among QBs with 12 total touchdowns.

But that’s where the fantasy predictability ends with the Cards.

Newly signed running back James Conner has accounted for the other four non-Murray offensive TDs — all on rushes of four yards or fewer — but those TDs account for more than half of his fantasy-point production as he ranks 25th at the position with 46.8 PPR points on 56 touches.

Holdover Chase Edmonds, meanwhile, ranks 13th among league running backs with a team-leading 395 total yards, including 140 on a team-high 20 receptions, but he has yet to find his way across the goal line on 63 touches.

At tight end, seventh-year vet Maxx Williams has been a nice surprise, reeling in 15 of his 16 targets for 179 yards and a TD to rank 13th at the position with 38.9 fantasy points.

The most surprising and intriguing numbers, though, belong to the Cards’ wide receivers.

It’s no shocker that DeAndre Hopkins is pacing the contingent in targets and fantasy points, but 6.25 targets and 14.4 fantasy points per outing isn’t what anyone envisioned when they spent a second-round fantasy pick on the veteran wideout, who currently ranks 24th at the position with 57.5 total points.

WRs Christian Kirk (52.4 fantasy points) and A.J. Green (51.8) also are top-30 fantasy receivers, ranking 29th and 30th, respectively, while rookie Rondale Moore (44.3) ranks 46th, thanks largely to a 24.4-point Week 2 outburst.

It’s been a tightly packed wideout quartet, though, with all four falling between 18-25 targets, 15-17 receptions, and 223-248 scrimmage yards.

Good news for Green, Kirk and Moore fantasy owners, but not so swell for the D-Hop GMs.

25 — targets for Los Angeles Rams WR Robert Woods, which is 21 fewer than teammate Cooper Kupp’s league-leading total of 46

Woods has led the Rams in targets in each of his first three seasons in L.A., averaging a robust 8.4 per game.

Kupp, meanwhile, has been essentially a co-WR1 with Woods, attracting only 10 fewer targets than his teammate the last two seasons following his injury-marred, eight-game 2018 campaign. In that time, Kupp averaged 8.0 targets per contest.

But with ballyhooed arrival of new QB Matthew Stafford this season, Kupp’s usage has soared to 11.5 targets per game, fueling his ascension to the top of the fantasy wideout heap with 102.6 total points.

Woods, meanwhile, has seen his per-game looks dip to 6.25 targets per contest, and he came out of Week 4 tied for 40th among wideouts with 46.0 total fantasy points. It’s been a frustrating start for Woods and his fantasy owners alike, and after he caught a 14-yard scoring pass in garbage time of Sunday’s 37-20 home loss to the Cardinals, he purposely flung the ball aside for emphasis.

Woods’ decline in targets also has led to an apparent conversation with head coach Sean McVay, who was quoted in a post-Week 4 interview saying “Robert is a leader, he’s a captain, and he’s been doing a great job up to this point. We just need to get him some more opportunities, and that starts with me.”

Don’t expect Kupp’s WR 1a status to change as he and Stafford simply have established too strong of a connection. But Woods is too talented to be taking this distant of a backseat, so look for his looks to jump up much closer to his 8.4-target average of recent seasons as opposing defenses invariably start shading more coverage Kupp’s way.

20 — receptions for Dallas Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz, which ranks fourth among league tight ends

Schultz also ranks fourth overall at the position of fantasy scarcity with 58.1 PPR points — an average of 14.5 per outing.

This isn’t a total shocker given that Schultz did finish 2020 ranked 10th among fantasy tight ends with 148.5 total points — an average of 9.3 per game. But with injured fellow tight end Blake Jarwin and QB Dak Prescott back from injuries that scuttled the majority of their 2020 seasons, and WR CeeDee Lamb’s anticipated second-year leap, Schultz’s fantasy production figured to go down — not up.

However, with opposing defenses far more concerned about the Cowboys’ other weapons, Schultz has taken advantage with a highly productive efficiency, reeling in 20 of 23 targets for 201 yards and a team-lead-matching three TD receptions.

Among league tight ends, only highly drafted studs Travis Kelce (24), Darren Waller (24) and T.J. Hockenson (22) have more receptions than Schultz so far.

Looking forward, WR Michael Gallup is due back soon from an early-season injury calf injury — just another reason why Schultz likely won’t wind up with enough target volume to maintain his elite TE1 ranking on a run-heavy team.

But, as 2020 and the first quarter of this season have shown, Schultz has earned a place as a starter in the majority of 10-team fantasy leagues.

86 and 55 — passing attempts and completions for New Orleans Saints QB Jameis Winston, the fewest in both categories among quarterbacks who have started four games

Only one team is attempting fewer than 25 passes per game or passing on fewer than 47 percent of their total plays. And it’s not the perennially run-heavy Baltimore Ravens or Cleveland Browns, who lead the league with an average of 177 ground yards per game.

Somewhat stunningly, it’s head coach Sean Payton’s New Orleans Saints, who are attempting only 22.5 passes per contest and throwing on 42.2 percent of their total plays — a full 5.0 percentage points behind the next lowest team, the Browns.

It’s most certainly a 180-degree turn from five seasons ago when the Drew Brees-led Saints ranked second in the league with an average of 42.1 passes per game — throwing on 63.4 percent of their total plays.

The lack of air attempts has certainly had an effect on fantasy fortunes in the Big Easy.

Jameis Winston has thrown for only 613 yards — a full 260 fewer than any other QB who’s started all four weeks. And even though Winston opened the season with five passing TDs and 31.1 fantasy points — on just 20 attempts and 14 completions — he’s totaled three aerial scores and 43.5 fantasy points in his three games since to rank 23rd among fantasy QBs on the season.

Only two New Orleans pass-catchers have double-digit receptions so far, with WR Deonte Harris leading the way with 11 for a team-high 164 yards.

Preseason WR sleeper Marquez Callaway has only drawn 13 targets in four games, catching nine of them for 137 yards and a TD. That’s 28.7 PPR points — 72nd among wideouts.

Stud RB Alvin Kamara is averaging a career-high 15.6 rushing attempts per game — way up from pre-2021 average of 11.2 — but his PPR value has taken a noticeable ding with only 10 receptions on his team-leading 14 targets for 62 yards so far to rank 15th among RBs with 57.9 total fantasy points.

Even with the expanded 17-game schedule, Kamara is on pace for 43 receptions and 264 receiving yards. He’s never had fewer than 81 catches and 533 receiving yards in any of his first four seasons.

Perhaps the pending midseason return of injured No. 1 wideout Michael Thomas will inspire more passing attempts in the Big Easy. But then again, Thomas could simply take his place on the list of fantasy victims of the new aerial-averse Saints.

2021 Schedule Swings: Receiving

Comparing schedule strength for fantasy football receivers – 2020 vs. 2021

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2020.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Will he face an easier or tougher schedule? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Since this compares all tight end and wide receiver production each week, there are a lot of points at play and how they are distributed within an offense has obvious variation. The schedule strength has the least accuracy with receivers, so consider this as a minor tool in valuing wideouts and tight ends.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Passing
Schedule Strength Swing – Rushing

Best Swings

Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith (NE) – The Patriots’ first season without Tom Brady went against the worst schedule strength in the NFL last year, so rising to the No. 10 should yield significant improvement. Now the only issue is an all-new set of receivers catching passes from either Cam Newton or the rookie Mac Jones.

Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims (NYJ) – The Jets are another team that suffered a horrible schedule strength in 2020 and now improve for this year. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson installs a new offensive scheme that will be a bigger success factor, and the receivers haven’t been upgraded either.

Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle (SF) – The 49ers’ passing game fell apart last year thanks to injuries to almost everyone. If they can stay healthy, the schedule becomes their friend in this complex passing game that may end up manned by a rookie quarterback.

Kenny Golladay, John Ross, Darius Slayton (NYG) – Daniel Jones looked significantly worse in his second season, but the No. 30 schedule hampered his mediocre set of receivers. The crew was upgraded this year and the slate of games clears up nicely for 2021.

DJ Moore, Robby Anderson (CAR) – Moore and Anderson were both productive last year even under a bad schedule. That won’t be an issue for 2021, but now they’ll rely on Sam Darnold trying to get a mulligan on his career.

Worst Swings

Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry (CLE) – The Browns draw no favors from the schedule with a serious decline from 2020. Throw in that they prefer to run the ball, and Beckham and Landry will be challenged to improve.

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (LAC) – Justin Herbert was the rookie of the year and his schedule helped a bit. Allen and Williams won’t have that benefit but they will have a year’s worth of experience with Herbert and the Chargers’ passing scheme doesn’t employ a lot of receivers in most plays.

A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Josh Reynolds (TEN) – Brown broke out in the second half of the 2020 season with impressive performances, though that was mostly facing the rest of the AFC South. This year, there are still meetings with the Texans and Jaguars, but the rest of the schedule is far less inviting.

2021 Schedule Swings: Rushing

Comparing schedule strength – 2020 vs. 2021

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Passing
Schedule Strength Swing – Receiving

Swing Points – The positive or negative point change in their schedule strength between last year and this year.

Best Swings

Cam Akers (LAR) – This is an exciting development for the second-year player. After starting slowly and then catching fire late in his rookie year, Akers is the clear-cut primary back for the Rams and trades the No. 30 schedule strength for the No. 8. Add in an upgrade at quarterback, and the needle points upward for the Ram’s backfield.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – While normally placing in the Top-5 of running backs each year, Elliott tumbled to No. 9 when the Cowboy’s offense went cold without Dak Prescott. That coincided with facing the No. 31 rushing schedule and Elliott turned in his worst season. Now Dak is back, and the schedule at least rises to only average.

Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams (DEN) – The biggest problem will be relying on either back unless an injury or coaching move produces more clarity for the Denver backfield. The problem is that the Broncos get the No. 1 rushing schedule for 2021, so both backs may look equally as good. This is a good spot to be if either is removed from the rotation for any reason.

Joe Mixon (CIN) – Mixon’s biggest issue has been staying healthy, and working behind an ineffective offensive line for four seasons has not helped that cause. At least the schedule is better, and the offense improved with Joe Burrow last year. The point shift suggests better production, but he’s still facing the No. 10 rushing schedule with durability and blocking questions.

Chris Carson (SEA) – He signed a three-year extension to remain the primary back for the Seahawks but had injury issues last year along with one of the toughest schedules. Carson has been a lock for 1,000 yards and eight to ten touchdowns when healthy, and the schedule becomes a friend for 2021. Rashaad Penny hasn’t been a factor for three years, and Carson takes the look of a solid RB2 addition to a fantasy team.

Worst Swings

Aaron Jones (GB) – The Packers let Jamaal Williams go and promoted A.J. Dillon, so fewer short-yardage rushing touchdowns may go to Jones. And worse yet, he enjoyed the No. 2 rushing schedule in 2020 and ended up as the No. 5 back. But, he incurs one of the most dramatic swings possible, swapping that No. 2 for a No. 31 this year thanks to facing defenses from the NFC West and AFC North. Throw in the Rodgers situation and he looks far riskier this season.

Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones (TB) – Their schedule was only average last year but drops to the worst in the league for rushing in 2021. That won’t make the normal drop in production from a Super Bowl season any easier to avoid. The duo are in a timeshare, and there may be even more hands in the pie with second-year Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard there.

Jonathan Taylor (IND) – While the Colts do have a significant rise in rushing schedule strength, they still face the No. 11-ranked slate of games. The No. 1 schedule helped the rookie Taylor end up as the No. 6 fantasy back. His fortunes are more sensitive to the effectiveness of Carson Wentz and the passing offense.

2021 Schedule Swings: Passing

How does the schedule compare to last year?

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Rushing
Schedule Strength Swing – Receiving

Swing Points – The positive or negative point change in their schedule strength between last year and this year.

Best Swings

Cam Newton, Mac Jones (NE) – As would often be the case, the team with the best positive swing has an unclear situation at quarterback and a complete makeover of the receiving corps. The Patriots ranked near the bottom in all passing categories in 2020, including dead last with only ten passing touchdowns. Newton did more damage as a runner which means nothing in this metric. If Mac Jones shows up at any point as the starter, he’ll get an advantage with the schedule compared to what Newton struggled against last year.

Daniel Jones (NYG) – Jones struggled last year against what became the worst passing schedule and it showed. After a promising start in 2019, he fell off the fantasy map with Saquon Barkley’s departure and a set of receivers that also incurred rampant injuries and underperformed. Now the G-Men have restocked the receivers, Barkley’s back, and the schedule at least becomes average in strength.

Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance (SF) – Like the Patriots, the 49ers welcome a dramatic positive shift in schedule strength from last year and also have an unclear quarterback situation. The 49ers were decimated by injuries in 2020 and not one of their starters lasted all 16 games. A healthy Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle going against the No. 4 fantasy schedule for quarterbacks should pay off well, if they make it clear who the starter will be and then stick with him.

Zach Wilson (NYJ) – The rookie Wilson lands in what has been a Siberia for quarterbacks, but at least the schedule is far kinder this year; there’s some optimism with a new offensive scheme along with a few minor upgrades to the receivers. It’s still a tall order to expect much from a rookie quarterback in this situation, but at least the schedule shouldn’t be the biggest challenge Wilson will have kicking off his NFL career.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – The offense changes with HC Arthur Smith importing his scheme from the Titans and there is some concern that Ryan may have peaked physically as a passer. But he’s gifted potentially the best tight end ever drafted and a schedule that improves markedly from 2020.

Worst Swings

Justin Herbert (LAC) – The rookie shattered all expectations when he finished as the No. 8 fantasy quarterback with 15 games played. He benefitted by going against what was the No. 2 fantasy schedule. He’s saddled with the worst swing from 2020 but the schedule is still only No. 23 and he’s shown remarkable progress in reading NFL defenses.

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – The Browns are already in a bad division for passing and already went against the No. 24 schedule last year when they ranked low in passes (29) and passing yardage (26). They end up with the worst schedule for passing in 2021 but they will run the ball more anyway. Baker has a few nice weapons, but the need is low and the schedule works against them even more this year.

Tom Brady (TB) – He moved to Tampa Bay at a fortuitous time, leaving the Pats No. 31-ranked pass schedule for the Buccaneers’ No. 8, along with a massive upgrade in pass targets. It’s always tougher the next year after winning a Super Bowl and the schedule is not working in his favor this year. But – he is Brady and still throws to a dizzying set of pass targets.

Jared Goff (DET) – The Rams fell out of love with their former first-round pick and shipped him off to the Lions in exchange for Matt Stafford. Goff wasn’t there last year but it is just as well since everything is new in Detroit anyway and the receiving corps have been completely made over (and, perhaps, not in a positive way). He’ll have to figure out the new offense using a downgraded set of receivers and battle a schedule that is also not working in his favor.

2020 Schedule Swings: Receiving

Comparing schedule strength for fantasy football receivers – 2020 vs. 2019

Below shows the point differential (Swing Pts) between their schedule strength last year, and what they will face this season. Also shown are the calculated schedule strength rankings from 2019 and what 2020 projects to be (1 is best, 32 is worst).

Receivers are the most sensitive to individual matchups. A good cover corner can silence any wideout and there are many other considerations that impact receiver production beyond team schedule strength. Only the most extreme swings are worth noting, and even then – this sort of analysis is always least accurate applied to individual receivers.

Best Swings

Allen Robinson/Anthony Miller (CHI) – The Bears already owned the No. 9 receiving schedule last year, so leaping to No. 1 isn’t as advantageous of a change as it might seem. Robinson is already secure as the No. 1 receiver but this great schedule could help Miller take the next step up from his very average production of 2019. There is a quarterback controversy (or at least should be) in Chicago, and that may help even further.

Courtland Sutton/Jerry Jeudy (DEN) – Drew Lock struggled to find his wideouts in the five games that he started as a rookie but they were out in patterns against the No. 32 receiving schedule. Lock is a bit more experienced and Sutton already impressed last year with his 1,000-yard season. The rookie Jeudy projects to be a difference-maker, but this great schedule may not be enough to make up for starting out in the NFL during the COVID-19 schedule.

Henry Ruggs/Tyrell Williams (LVR) – This is a case of a team that had one of the worst schedules for receiving in 2019, going to just average for this season. There’s plenty of other factors to contend with like a new stadium, a new rookie wideout, and the pandemic fallout impacting any changes more than usual. The Raiders do get a nice bump in schedule strength but it’s still slightly below average.

Terry McLaurin/Steve Sims (WAS) – Rising to the No. 3 receiving schedule from the No. 18 helps, but the jury is still out on quarterback Dwayne Haskins. Throw in all-new coaches, a new team mascot, and a scandal or two and this won’t be enough to counteract everything else that is going on in Washington.

T.Y. Hilton/Michael Pittman (IND) – This is worth noting. The Colts flopped badly in 2019 without Andrew Luck and the No. 22 receiving schedule did them no favors as well. But Philip Rivers is sure to upgrade the quarterback role and Hilton went for 1,270 yards in 2018. Facing the No. 6 receiving schedule with a veteran quarterback will help get Holton back over 1,000 yards. Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell will also benefit.

Davante Adams/Allen Lazard (GB) – The second best receiver for the Packers is a coin flip and didn’t amount to more than 35 catches for 477 yards last year. But Davante Adams recorded 83 catches in just 12 games and the Packers jump up from the No. 21 to the No. 7 receiving schedule this year. Adams is already money so the benefit just makes him an even safer pick as one of the first wideouts taken in any fantasy league draft.

Worst Swings

Mike Evans/Chris Godwin (TB) – Jameis Winston may have completed more interceptions than anyone else last year, but both Evans and Godwin turned in big years in the process. Now Tom Brady will be the pitcher which could impact the deep ball (added bonus, ball placement closer to the wideout than the cornerback). The schedule projects to be average which could cool down the passing game after the No. 1 easiest receiver schedule in 2019. But it is the same offense with two of the top wideouts in the game on either side.

Keenan Allen/Mike Williams (LAC) – This could be troubling. The Bolts receivers went against the No. 5 schedule but fall to the No. 29 in a year where either retread Tyrod Taylor or the rookie Justin Herbert (or both) will start. Both have fallen in fantasy drafts but maybe not far enough.

A.J. Brown/Corey Davis (TEN) – Ryan Tannehill sent Marcus Mariota to the bench last year and A.J. Brown blew up as a rookie. Falling to the No. 31 receiving schedule from the No. 11 won’t help. And the Titans only ranked No. 30 in the NFL with only 171 completions to their wideouts. Brown is safe enough to at least match his fine debut but the schedule and lack of passes will likely prevent any other receivers here from offering fantasy value.

Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley (ATL) – The Falcons had a big passing year in 2019 and Julio Jones turned in a career-best year as the No. 2 best fantasy wideout. That was facing the No. 2 receiving schedule and they drop to No. 16 for an average strength. Jones and Ridley already combined for 162 catches last year while missing a few games. They remain safe fantasy plays but no other receivers are likely to stand out.

DJ Chark/Dede Westbrook (JAC) – Chark had a break-out season when he gained 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns last year. Dede Westbrook ended with 66 catches for 660 yards. They tumble from the No. 7 to the No. 23 receiving schedule but Gardner Minshew will have NFL-experience for this season. The schedule is not a friend, but it shouldn’t be a major factor in their fantasy fortunes.

Michael Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (NO) – Falling from the No. 3 to the No. 14 receiving strength of schedule isn’t ideal, but Thomas caught 149 passes last year – 45 more than any other wideout. The schedule is still average at worst but the Saints return with nearly the exact same team intact in a year where any changes will be penalized. Emmanuel Sanders is the only question here but he’ll never have to worry with double coverage anyway.

2020 Schedule Swings: Rushing

Comparing schedule strength – 2020 vs. 2019

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time? As always, only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year.

Best Swings

Leonard Fournette (JAC) – He enters the final year of his rookie contract with a lot to prove. Fournette has been a Top-10 fantasy running back in years when he was (mostly) healthy. He enjoys the biggest swing of any back, rushing from the No. 26 to the No. 4 schedule. That should help him to gain a bigger payday in 2021. Assuming he is healthy.

Austin Ekeler (LAC) – This could be misleading. Ekeler had a great 2019 season when he ended as the No. 4 fantasy back and the Chargers faced the No. 30 rushing schedule. They improve to No. 18 which is favorable, but Ekeler only ran 132 times for 557 yards and the Chargers ranked No. 18 in rush yards as a backfield. Ekeler caught 92 passes for 993 yards for the source of most of his fantasy points. The Chargers faced the No. 2 easiest passing schedule and now slip down to No. 22 for 2020. That’s more relevant for Ekeler than the rushing schedule impact.

Saquon Barkley (NYG) – Like you needed another reason to draft Barkley. He comes off a down year thanks to injury but going against the No. 28 rushing schedule was no help as well. He’s healthy again and faces a kinder slate of games for this season.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – Elliott is another elite back that ended up as the No. 3 fantasy value despite facing the No. 25 rushing schedule. Going against the No. 6 rushing schedule should keep him in the Top-3.

D’Andre Swift/Kerryon Johnson (DET) – The Lions backfield has long fallen short of much fantasy value, and there’s extra uncertainty now with the promising but less prepared rookie challenging the one-time promising rookie who cannot stay healthy. There is a healthy shift towards a lighter rushing schedule, but only from facing one of the very worst last year to an average schedule for 2020.

Derrick Henry (TEN) – Henry signed the big post-rookie contract so hopefully he doesn’t succumb to “got mine” disease. He led the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards last year while facing the No. 22 rushing schedule and now is handed the No. 7 just to make things easier. And no back is more sensitive to a rushing strength of schedule than the guy who ran 386 times to only 28 receptions. That’s about 14 carries for each catch.

Worst Swings

Jonathan Taylor/Marlon Mack (IND) – The Colts backfield ranked Top-5 in rushing attempts (399) and rushing yards (1,832) last year going against the No. 2 best rushing schedule. That plummets to the No. 28 rushing schedule and once again, there is a less-prepared rookie vying for carries against last year’s primary back. Bet the rookie Taylor doesn’t match his 320 carries last year at Wisconsin. Or his 2,003 rushing yards.

Melvin Gordon (DEN) – The Broncos were about average with the run last year but they enjoyed the No. 5 rushing schedule as well. Gordon shows up from the Chargers to become the primary back over but he’ll face the No. 26 strength schedule in Denver. That’s oddly the exact same strength as he had last year in Los Angeles when he held out for games and then ran for only 3.8 yards per carry.

Devin Singletary (BUF) – While he enjoyed a 5.1-yard average as a rookie in Buffalo, Singletary drops from the No. 15 rushing schedule clean down to the No. 32. Plus the burly Zack Moss has been added to the backfield leaving the 5-7, 201 lb. Singletary to provide the finesse work that saw him with only 151 rushing attempts in 2019. He’ll add more as a receiver but his rushing totals are not likely to see an appreciable spike.

Josh Jacobs (LVR) – Yet another rookie that benefitted from one of the lightest rushing schedules last season, Jacob’s fine rookie campaign may be hard to just match playing in a new stadium against the No. 23 rushing schedule. He’s a capable back with a 4.8-yard average but the schedule won’t do him any favors this year.

David Johnson (HOU) – Sure, his lone good season was four years and a few choice injuries ago, but Johnson was traded to the Texans to become their primary back. It was a move that surprised everyone and he gets his second chance at a career going against the No. 22 rushing schedule. To his benefit, the offensive line in Houston has been much upgraded. To his detriment, he is the David Johnson that has flopped since 2016.

Alvin Kamara (NO) – This isn’t ideal. Kamara trades the No. 20 rushing schedule for the No. 31 but he played injured most of 2019 when he turned in his third straight 1,200-total-yard season with 81 receptions. His role as a receiver is plenty to keep him churning out the fantasy points.

2020 Schedule Swings: Passing

Comparing schedule strength – 2020 vs. 2019

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year.

Below are the point differential (Swing Pts) between their schedule strength last year and what they will face this season. Also shown are the calculated schedule strength rankings for 2019 and what 2020 projects to be (1 is best, 32 is worst).

Best Swings

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – This is interesting. Mayfield turned in a very encouraging rookie season but then mostly flopped in 2019. He faced the No. 31 passing schedule, which was at least a contributor (along with receiver injuries). Mayfield owns the best turnaround of a schedule and goes from the second-worst passing schedule to just inside the Top-10.

Mitchell Trubisky/Nick Foles (CHI) – The Bears are tricky this year. Does Trubisky start all year or does Foles step in at any point? Notable is that while they own the second-best swing, they were already had the No. 5 passing schedule last year and ranked No. 25 in passing yards (3,573). So clearly, a favorable schedule wasn’t enough to spark even average production. Maybe it’s Trubisky, maybe it’s the coaching. Whatever the problem is, it hasn’t been the schedule.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – The Packer’s future Hall-of-Famer was only the No. 12 fantasy quarterback. He ended with one of the worst seasons in his 15-year career. Facing the No. 27 passing schedule did not help, but the Packers under HC Matt LaFleur installed a run-heavy offense that reduced their passing production to only average levels. Rodgers gets a nice bump up to the No. 6 passing schedule strength, but ignoring wideouts in the NFL draft and yet grabbing a first-round quarterback doesn’t bode well for a turnaround in Green Bay.

Derek Carr (LVR) – Here’s a quarterback that ends up around No. 18 every year. Gruden, no Gruden – so far, it has not mattered. He has a positive swing to be sure, but that’s still just No. 30 to No. 21. Facing the Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers twice each year doesn’t help. Carr should be better with a lighter (relatively) schedule and even new receivers for 2020. But he’s still one of the last fantasy quarterbacks drafted for a good reason.

Dwayne Haskins (WAS) – While Haskins rises to the No. 5 schedule, nothing last year says that big things are a-brewing in Washington (at least not with a quarterback). The ~~Redskins~~ Washington Professional Football Team didn’t rank better than bottom-three in almost all passing categories when they faced the No. 22 passing schedule. Highly unlikely that Haskins merits a fantasy start in most if not all leagues.

Philip Rivers (IND) – While the Colts went with Jacoby Brissett last year after Andrew Luck refused to make that morning commute, they only passed for 3,314 yards. Despite owning the No. 11 passing schedule, no advantage was derived. Rivers shows up at a great time with the No. 2 passing schedule on tap and oddly enough enjoyed the same No. 2 with the Chargers in 2019. This is a bad year for moving around and learning new things, but facing the No. 2 passing schedule last year netted him the No. 13 rank among fantasy quarterbacks. With a less talented offensive line, as well.

Worst Swings

Tyrod Taylor (LAC) – He wasn’t there for the No. 2 passing schedule in 2019, but he will be under center against the No. 22 passing schedule this year. Not to mention he’ll be learning a new offense with new personnel, and oh yes, he’ll likely lose the starting job to Justin Herbert before the season is over.

Tom Brady (TB) – This isn’t as bad as it initially seems. While Brady missed out on going against the No. 1 easiest passing schedule last year for the Buccaneers, he still ends up with the No. 11 passing schedule and will play with the best set of receivers he’s had in many, many years if not ever.

Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – This is more concerning given that the Titans already ranked No. 31 in pass attempts (446) last year. Tannehill drops from the No. 7 down to the No. 29 passing schedule. And their rushing schedule improved (No. 22 to No.7) so they could end up with the No. 32 in pass attempts for 2020.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Ryan has been a Top-6 fantasy quarterback for the last two years but the hat trick should be a challenge to complete. The Falcons fall from the No. 8 passing schedule down to the No. 28. In their favor, they return all the same players and coaches and that counts bigger this season.

Drew Brees (NO) – This shouldn’t be much of a factor given that they still face the No.13 passing schedule with one of the best quarterbacks of all time. The Saints rushing schedule falls to No. 31 this year, so Brees will have plenty of reasons to air the ball out early and often.

Gardner Minshew (JAC) – This is another instance of a great schedule shifting backward to just an average one. Minshew already has to install a new offensive scheme under OC Jay Gruden but gets his easier matchups all in the first half the season. He could fade late when you need him most.