The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2019.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time?  Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year.

Below are the point differential (Swing Pts) between their schedule strength last year and what they will face this season. Also shown are the calculated schedule strength rankings for 2019  and what 2020 projects to be (1 is best, 32 is worst).

Best Swings

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – This is interesting. Mayfield turned in a very encouraging rookie season but then mostly flopped in 2019. He faced the No. 31 passing schedule, which was at least a contributor (along with receiver injuries). Mayfield owns the best turnaround of a schedule and goes from the second-worst passing schedule to just inside the Top-10.

Mitchell Trubisky/Nick Foles (CHI) – The Bears are tricky this year. Does Trubisky start all year or does Foles step in at any point? Notable is that while they own the second-best swing, they were already had the No. 5 passing schedule last year and ranked No. 25 in passing yards (3,573). So clearly, a favorable schedule wasn’t enough to spark even average production. Maybe it’s Trubisky, maybe it’s the coaching. Whatever the problem is, it hasn’t been the schedule.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – The Packer’s future Hall-of-Famer was only the No. 12 fantasy quarterback. He ended with one of the worst seasons in his 15-year career. Facing the No. 27 passing schedule did not help, but the Packers under HC Matt LaFleur installed a run-heavy offense that reduced their passing production to only average levels. Rodgers gets a nice bump up to the No. 6 passing schedule strength, but ignoring wideouts in the NFL draft and yet grabbing a first-round quarterback doesn’t bode well for a turnaround in Green Bay.

Derek Carr (LVR) – Here’s a quarterback that ends up around No. 18 every year.  Gruden, no Gruden – so far, it has not mattered. He has a positive swing to be sure, but that’s still just No. 30 to No. 21. Facing the Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers twice each year doesn’t help. Carr should be better with a lighter (relatively) schedule and even new receivers for 2020. But he’s still one of the last fantasy quarterbacks drafted for a good reason.

Dwayne Haskins (WAS) – While Haskins rises to the No. 5 schedule, nothing last year says that big things are a-brewing in Washington (at least not with a quarterback). The Redskins Washington Professional Football Team didn’t rank better than bottom-three in almost all passing categories when they faced the No. 22 passing schedule. Highly unlikely that Haskins merits a fantasy start in most if not all leagues.

Philip Rivers (IND) – While the Colts went with Jacoby Brissett last year after Andrew Luck refused to make that morning commute, they only passed for 3,314 yards. Despite owning the No. 11 passing schedule, no advantage was derived. Rivers shows up at a great time with the No. 2 passing schedule on tap and oddly enough enjoyed the same No. 2 with the Chargers in 2019. This is a bad year for moving around and learning new things, but facing the No. 2 passing schedule last year netted him the No. 13 rank among fantasy quarterbacks. With a less talented offensive line, as well.

Worst Swings

Tyrod Taylor (LAC) – He wasn’t there for the No. 2 passing schedule in 2019, but he will be under center against the No. 22 passing schedule this year. Not to mention he’ll be learning a new offense with new personnel, and oh yes, he’ll likely lose the starting job to Justin Herbert before the season is over.

Tom Brady (TB) – This isn’t as bad as it initially seems. While Brady missed out on going against the No. 1 easiest passing schedule last year for the Buccaneers, he still ends up with the No. 11 passing schedule and will play with the best set of receivers he’s had in many, many years if not ever.

Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – This is more concerning given that the Titans already ranked No. 31 in pass attempts (446) last year. Tannehill drops from the No. 7 down to the No. 29 passing schedule. And their rushing schedule improved (No. 22 to No.7) so they could end up with the No. 32 in pass attempts for 2020.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Ryan has been a Top-6 fantasy quarterback for the last two years but the hat trick should be a challenge to complete. The Falcons fall from the No. 8 passing schedule down to the No. 28. In their favor, they return all the same players and coaches and that counts bigger this season.

Drew Brees (NO) – This shouldn’t be much of a factor given that they still face the No.13 passing schedule with one of the best quarterbacks of all time. The Saints rushing schedule falls to No. 31 this year, so Brees will have plenty of reasons to air the ball out early and often.

Gardner Minshew (JAC) – This is another instance of a great schedule shifting backward to just an average one. Minshew already has to install a new offensive scheme under OC Jay Gruden but gets his easier matchups all in the first half the season. He could fade late when you need him most.