The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2019.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time?  As always, only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year.

Below shows the point differential (Swing Pts) between their schedule strength last year, and what they will face this season. Also shown are the calculated schedule strength rankings from 2019 and what 2020 projects to be (1 is best, 32 is worst).

Best Swings

Leonard Fournette (JAC) – He enters the final year of his rookie contract with a lot to prove. Fournette has been a Top-10 fantasy running back in years when he was (mostly) healthy. He enjoys the biggest swing of any back, rushing from the No. 26 to the No. 4 schedule. That should help him to gain a bigger payday in 2021. Assuming he is healthy.

Austin Ekeler (LAC) – This could be misleading. Ekeler had a great 2019 season when he ended as the No. 4 fantasy back and the Chargers faced the No. 30 rushing schedule. They improve to No. 18 which is favorable, but Ekeler only ran 132 times for 557 yards and the Chargers ranked No. 18 in rush yards as a backfield. Ekeler caught 92 passes for 993 yards for the source of most of his fantasy points. The Chargers faced the No. 2 easiest passing schedule and now slip down to No. 22 for 2020. That’s more relevant for Ekeler than the rushing schedule impact.

Saquon Barkley (NYG) – Like you needed another reason to draft Barkley. He comes off a down year thanks to injury but going against the No. 28 rushing schedule was no help as well. He’s healthy again and faces a kinder slate of games for this season.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) –  Elliott is another elite back that ended up as the No. 3 fantasy value despite facing the No. 25 rushing schedule. Going against the No. 6 rushing schedule should keep him in the Top-3.

D’Andre Swift/Kerryon Johnson (DET) – The Lions backfield has long fallen short of much fantasy value, and there’s extra uncertainty now with the promising but less prepared rookie challenging the one-time promising rookie who cannot stay healthy. There is a healthy shift towards a lighter rushing schedule, but only from facing one of the very worst last year to an average schedule for 2020.

Derrick Henry (TEN) – Henry signed the big post-rookie contract so hopefully he doesn’t succumb to “got mine” disease. He led the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards last year while facing the No. 22 rushing schedule and now is handed the No. 7 just to make things easier. And no back is more sensitive to a rushing strength of schedule than the guy who ran 386 times to only 28 receptions. That’s about 14 carries for each catch.

Worst Swings

Jonathan Taylor/Marlon Mack (IND) – The Colts backfield ranked Top-5 in rushing attempts (399) and rushing yards (1,832) last year going against the No. 2 best rushing schedule. That plummets to the No. 28 rushing schedule and once again, there is a less-prepared rookie vying for carries against last year’s primary back. Bet the rookie Taylor doesn’t match his 320 carries last year at Wisconsin. Or his 2,003 rushing yards.

Melvin Gordon (DEN) – The Broncos were about average with the run last year but they enjoyed the No. 5 rushing schedule as well. Gordon shows up from the Chargers to become the primary back over but he’ll face the No. 26 strength schedule in Denver. That’s oddly the exact same strength as he had last year in Los Angeles when he held out for games and then ran for only 3.8 yards per carry.

Devin Singletary (BUF) – While he enjoyed a 5.1-yard average as a rookie in Buffalo, Singletary drops from the No. 15 rushing schedule clean down to the No. 32. Plus the burly Zack Moss has been added to the backfield leaving the 5-7, 201 lb. Singletary to provide the finesse work that saw him with only 151 rushing attempts in 2019. He’ll add more as a receiver but his rushing totals are not likely to see an appreciable spike.

Josh Jacobs (LVR) – Yet another rookie that benefitted from one of the lightest rushing schedules last season, Jacob’s fine rookie campaign may be hard to just match playing in a new stadium against the No. 23 rushing schedule. He’s a capable back with a 4.8-yard average but the schedule won’t do him any favors this year.

David Johnson (HOU) – Sure, his lone good season was four years and a few choice injuries ago, but Johnson was traded to the Texans to become their primary back. It was a move that surprised everyone and he gets his second chance at a career going against the No. 22 rushing schedule. To his benefit, the offensive line in Houston has been much upgraded. To his detriment, he is the David Johnson that has flopped since 2016.

Alvin Kamara (NO) – This isn’t ideal. Kamara trades the No. 20 rushing schedule for the No. 31 but he played injured most of 2019 when he turned in his third straight 1,200-total-yard season with 81 receptions. His role as a receiver is plenty to keep him churning out the fantasy points.