Tag: Establishing the 53

Establishing the 53: Wrapping up the mailbag, part 3

Answering the reader’s mailbag questions after Erik Schlitt’s Establishing the 53 series of articles at Lions Wire.

After the conclusion of my “Establishing the 53” series of articles, I posed a question to the #OnePride fan base on Twitter asking for any mailbag questions surrounding my conclusions.

I answered the three most asked questions in Part 1 of the Mailbag, focused on the linebackers in Part 2, but there are still a few more great questions to answer. So let’s wrap up the mailbag here with Part 3.

Note: questions may have been edited for clarity.

I suspect the Lions really want a fulltime FB, they would fear losing Blough off the PS, and they lust for safeties — which would mean 1 more making the team. — @jhsthethird

I agree with all three of these concerns and even addressed the need for an extra safety in part 1 of the mailbag when I added C.J. Moore back into my 53-man projection.

As far as a fullback, Nick Bawden is the obvious front runner and his contributions on special teams surely help his cause, but at the end of the day the Lions would likely have to go light at another position — keeping only five wide receivers or eight offensive linemen — to make room for him. It’s possible that happens, but it would go a bit against the grain of previous rosters constructions.

Unfortunately, the same issue with roster space applies to Blough as well. He has shown he has the mental makeup and potential to develop with time, but if the Lions were truly all in on him making the 53, they probably wouldn’t have given Chase Daniel the type of contract they did. If the Lions are truly worried they may lose him off the practice squad, don’t be surprised if they give him salary close to what he is making now ($675,000) to encourage him to stick around.

It seems that you have all but one draft pick sticking on the roster. Does that mean you think the Lions really did well in the late rounds of the draft? — @IgorPetrinovic

The one draft pick I didn’t have making my 53-man projection was seventh-round pick defensive lineman Jashon Cornell (Ohio State), as I had him being edged out by last year’s UDFA gem Kevin Strong. My exclusion is less a knock on Cornell and more of a compliment to Strong who flashed last season. If Cornell impresses in camp, he surely has a shot to make it into the rotation.

One of the reasons I typically include a lot of rookies from the Lions draft class is based on the methodical nature of general manager Bob Quinn. He rarely veers from his offseason game plan and when he identifies a player and uses draft capital on him, it’s generally for an immediate purpose.

For example, in the four previous seasons, Quinn has only cut the following drafted rookies in training camp:

  • 2019: his final draft pick, PJ Johnson
  • 2018: none
  • 2017: final pick Pat O’Conner, and second to last pick Brad Kaaya
  • 2016: second to last pick Jimmy Landes

Will the Lions add more depth to the DL/pass rush before the season? Looks to be a weak spot again this season. — @thespartyabides

The interior defensive line surely has the potential to be a weak spot with concerns surrounding Da’Shawn Hand and Kevin Strong’s health, Nick Williams’ lack of scheme familiarity, unproven rookies in Cornell and John Penisini, and the struggles to create pressure from this group last season.

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But if the Lions are going to add a player in free agency, the top name on the market is a familiar one: Mike Daniels.

Adding Daniels on an incentive-laden deal would be wise — if the Lions can get him on board with it — as he loves the Lions organization and coaches, and when healthy has the upside to fill an interior pass-rushing role the team desperately needs.

You have the Lions keeping 9 OL and 3 are tackles. With 3 IOL that are rookies or 2nd-year players. How likely is it that they stick with that much youth and clustered in the interior vs trying to add/keep a vet? Do you think they are satisfied with their tackle depth? — @KuehnObserve

I do think they are satisfied with their tackle depth, and while it’s not overly sexy having Kenny Wiggins as a fourth option, I believe they would rather lean on him in an emergency option rather than keep a roster spot for a player who can only play at tackle, like Dan Skipper or free agents like Demar Dotson and Andre Smith who are the top right tackles on the market.

As far as the interior, having three veterans and three rookie/sophomores is livable, especially if they keep a player like Oday Aboushi on speed dial.

Establishing the 53: Mailbag, part 2 is all about the LBs

Answering the reader’s mailbag questions after Erik Schlitt’s Establishing the 53 series of articles at Lions Wire.

After the conclusion of my “Establishing the 53” series of articles, I posed a question to the #OnePride fan base on Twitter asking for any mailbag questions surrounding my conclusions.

I answered the three most asked questions in Part 1 of the Mailbag, but there are still plenty of great questions to answer. So let’s get started.

Note: questions may have been edited for clarity

How are the Lions going to get pressure on the QB using a 3-3-5 alignment? — @joseph_xuereb

Last season the Lions were one of the worst pass-rushing teams in the league. As Jeff Risdon pointed out in his review of the first quarter of last season, the Lions found early success only rushing three linemen, but that turned out to be more of a curse than a blessing, as the team still had confidence rushing three later in the season even when it stopped working.

While the Lions did go a bit heavier in their three rusher alignments last season, for the majority of snaps they did rush four, with the extra pass rusher being JACK linebacker Devon Kennard.

One of the advantages of using a 3-3-5 set is you can disguise where the fourth rusher is coming from, but last year it was obvious to offenses that it would almost always be Kennard because he lacked the range to drop into coverage, and they were prepared for him.

This lack of range ultimately led to Kennard’s release and was likely a major reason why the Lions targeted Jamie Collins to replace him in the starting lineup.

Collins’ range will pair nicely with skill sets of Jahlani Tavai and Christian Jones and it appears the Lions may be looking to expand Jarrad Davis’ role. The addition of Collins will give the coaches options on where to bring pressure from, and in turn, should disguise the Lions’ defensive intentions.

This should also afford the Lions the opportunity to incorporate more blitzes into their game plans, allowing them to bring a 4th and sometimes 5th rusher from unique angles.

They still have to execute on the field, but the flexibility in their linebacker group should give them more options than they have previously had.

Jahlani Tavai, I believe, will be our consistent mike backer. I think they like him as the “voice” of the defense. Do you believe Tavai can play the mike position consistently? — @michaelman1212

As I eluded to in the previous question, I believe the Lions will be deploying their linebackers in several different spots, rotating players through positions, in order to confuse offenses. And while that means different players will line up at the MIKE, I agree Tavai could take on the traditional MIKE responsibilities.

One of the main jobs of the MIKE is to wear the “green dot” helmet and relay in the defensive play calls. During Davis’ first three seasons in the league that was his responsibility, but last year the Lions expanded that job to other players including Tavai.

The Lions typically allow their day two draft picks to slowly acclimate to the league during their rookie season — Tavai was a second-round pick in 2019 — and by year two they take on a much larger role. With Davis in a contract year, expect to see Tavai wear the green dot helmet quite a bit in 2020.

With both Jamie Collins and Christian Jones on the roster, could you see the Lions running a SAM LB more often in the scheme in order to get them both on the field? — @paullymac7

Typically the Lions only deploy a traditional SAM linebacker when they use four down linemen, which only happens against run-heavy offenses like the Minnesota Vikings.

That being said, the JACK linebacker spot looks primed to be adjusted and it’s possible that role will show more SAM-like qualities — especially if the Lions plan to disguise intentions.

As far as getting both Collins and Jones on the field at a time, I think there is plenty of opportunities to do so. Both players can play at the WILL, JACK, and SAM, and with the rotation levels the Lions use — last year four Lions’ linebackers saw over 52-percent of snaps — there is room for Collins, Jones, Tavai, and Davis to all get starter-level reps.

Reggie Ragland going to practice squad? — @CraigFe60141609

Leaving Ragland out of my projections got a big reaction on social media, but I stand by my assessment of him being an excellent scheme fit but only providing minimal value on special teams — something he will need to get better at quickly if he wants to win the fifth linebacker role.

As far as Craig’s question, under the 2019 practice squad rules, Ragland, who has three years accrued experience, would not have been eligible for the practice squad, but under the new CBA, he is now eligible. This season the practice squad will include 12 players, of which two can have any level of NFL experience — which makes Ragland eligible.

Now Ragland may not want to take a practice squad role but if he comes up empty on the free-agent market, it may be in his best interest to return to Detroit as a potential “practice squad elevation” player due to his fit in the defense. The Lions could also entice him by offering him a higher salary to stick around on the practice squad in an emergency role.

Does Miles Killebrew’s contract make him more of a lock than we may otherwise think? It appears he signed a deal that qualifies under the new CBA for the “mid-level” veteran salary benefit. So he only counts $1.047M against the cap, but $1M is guaranteed. Seems safe to me. — @swarheit

To push Scott’s point further, Killebrew not only has $1 million in guaranteed salary but he also got $137,500 in a signing bonus. That means his cap hit is indeed $1.047 million in 2020 but it would increase to $1.375 million in dead cap if they release him — meaning it would actually cost the Lions $90,000 more to cut him than keep him.

So why did I have Killebrew on the outside of my 53-man projection?

Killebrew was one of the final few decisions I made when rounding out my projection, with it coming down to him or fellow special teams demon Jalen Reeves-Maybin. Both are dynamic pieces on special teams but are only emergency level defenders and I’m not sure the Lions will be able to keep multiple special teams only players.

Additionally, while his contract is very team-friendly, the additional $90,000 — or $1.375 million for that matter — is just drop in the bucket overall and I don’t believe it will deter the Lions from moving on if they need roster space.

There’s a real chance he finds his way onto the roster for a fifth season but he will likely have to make his money in the pre-season.

Establishing the 53: Answering the mailbag, Part 1

Answering the reader’s mailbag questions after Erik Schlitt’s Establishing the 53 series of articles at Lions Wire.

After the conclusion of my “Establishing the 53” series of articles, I posed a question to the #OnePride fan base on Twitter asking for any mailbag questions surrounding my conclusions.

Let’s take a closer look at some of those questions in Part 1 of our mailbag.

Jamal Agnew

I received several questions surrounding my inclusion of Jamal Agnew on my 53-man roster projection, mostly centered around the following concerns:

  • kick returner value in the NFL is diminishing due to new rules
  • he will be challenged by fifth-round rookie Jason Huntley
  • he has been inconsistent as a punt returner and nickel corner
  • C.J. Moore, who was left off the projection, could have more roster value as a starting gunner and safety depth

All four of these concerns have merit, and it’s possible one (or more) of these reasons is why the Lions are moving Agnew to wide receiver.

With the news of this position switch, and how I believe the Lions will use Agnew on offense, I adjusted my 53-man projection by removing gadget tight end Hunter Bryant and adding Moore to defense/special teams.

As the only player in the NFL to have four kicks/punts returned for touchdowns in the last three seasons, I still believe Agnew has the inside track for return duties, giving him an edge to make the 53 — and if he can also provide some gadget work on offense, all the better.

Beau Benzschawel

Another player who I received multiple questions on was second-year offensive lineman Beau Benzschawel, but unlike Agnew, questions concerning Benzschawel ranged from should he make the roster to could he win a starting role?

I have Benzschawel making the 53 as a reserve right now based on the fact that the Lions kept him on the active roster all of last season despite not playing him and the things I’ve heard about his progress in practices. If the Lions keep nine offensive linemen, I firmly believe Benzschawel makes the team, but if the Lions only keep eight (because of new roster rules being put in place this year) his spot may be in jeopardy.

When do (the rosters) go to 55 players? — @MMoneynva

With a new CBA in place this season, there are a few rules changes for rosters — the most notable being a roster expansion.

While teams can have up to 55 players on their active rosters in any given week, there are some caveats that go along with it.

First, there will only be 53 everyday players on the active roster, but teams can promote up to two players from the practice squad each week to increase the roster up to 55. That additional one/two players can only be promoted for the week and after the week’s conclusion (after the game), the player(s) will revert back to the practice squad.

Second, a player can only be promoted from the practice squad to the active roster twice in a season before they become susceptible to waivers. Meaning if a player is promoted a third time, they will have to clear league waivers at the end of the week before the team can re-sign them in any capacity.

Third, in order for a team to be eligible to promote any player, they must carry a minimum of eight offensive linemen on their active roster.

Most teams only keep seven offensive linemen active on game days, yet keep nine to ten on the active roster for injury insurance and/or development. With the implementation of the new promotion rule, some teams may decide to keep less offensive linemen on the active roster as they can promote from within if there is an injury.

Benzschawel is an example of a player who was kept as injury insurance/development in 2019 but could find himself on the practice squad in 2020 if he keeps the same role and the Lions need another spot on the roster.

The third addendum above — carrying eight offensive linemen — allows teams the flexibility to stash a role player like Benzschawel but also keeps them from taking advantage and placing all reserve offensive linemen on the practice squad.

Establishing the 53: Roster Stack, summer edition

Examining the Detroit Lions roster, by stacking the players into levels based on value to the team.

By using a Roster Stack — predicting roles by grouping players by their expected value to the team — to examine the Detroit Lions roster we can get a look at the current front-runners for the 53-man roster as well as how things may change with different approaches to roster construction.

This version of the Lions Roster Stack will break down the roster into seven sections: 1) Impact players, 2) Core players, 3) Projected starters, 4) Role players, 5) Final 12 spots, 6) In the hunt, and 7) Have work to do.

Impact players

These are the players who if removed from the roster, would greatly impact the team’s overall performance.

QB1 Matthew Stafford
WR-Z Kenny Golladay
LT Taylor Decker
C Frank Ragnow
DDE Trey Flowers
CB1A Jeff Okudah
JOKER Tracy Walker

We all saw what happened when Stafford was removed from the Lions in 2019, and while the impact won’t likely be as great if one of the other players in this section goes down, losing any of these players would be a major set back for the team’s 2020 hopes.

Core Players

These players make up the foundation of the team and have a significant weekly role on the roster.

RB1A Kerryon Johnson
RB1B D’Andre Swift
WR-X Marvin Jones
Slot1 Danny Amendola
TE1 T.J. Hockenson
RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai
DT1A Da’Shawn Hand
NT1 Danny Shelton
JACK1 Julian Okwara
WILL1 Jamie Collins
MIKE1 Jahlani Tavai
CB1B Desmond Trufant
NB1 Justin Coleman
S-H1 Duron Harmon
K Matt Prater
LS Don Muhlbach

While Johnson and Swift are expected to platoon starting duties, the only other player on this list that is not a true starter is third-round pick Julian Okwara — even though he appears to be the top true JACK option on the roster.

Projected starters

The players in this section will either win a starting role or find a home as a reserve/role player and likely have an inside shot at the Lions 53-man roster.

OG Joe Dahl
OG Jonah Jackson
DT1B Nick Williams
MIKE2 Jarrad Davis
3rd S Will Harris

Dahl and Davis are returning starters but after additions made to the roster this offseason, it’s fair to wonder if their starting spots are in question. Jackson was the most significant interior offensive line addition this offseason and he appears to have an inside track for a starting role. Last year, Harris was groomed to take over the third safety role but should receive competition from Jayron Kearse for the role. There’s an argument to be made that Williams deserves to up a section, but until we see his role in camp, it’s difficult to project him as anything but a rotational starter with Hand.

Role players

These players should feel comfortable with their role on the team based on their skill sets and the current level of competition from the other players at their position group.

QB2 Chase Daniel
RB3 Bo Scarbrough
WR4 Marvin Hall
WR5 Quintez Cephus
TE2 Jesse James
OT3 Tyrell Crosby
OG3 Logan Stenberg
DDE2 Romeo Okwara
JACK2 Austin Bryant
WILL2 Christian Jones
CB3 Amani Oruwariye
S4 Jayron Kearse

Some role players are safer than others but the majority of players listed here have received an investment — either financially or draft stock — from the team. It’s worth noting that Scarbrough, Hall, Okwara, and Kearse are all in the final year of their contract with the Lions.

Final 13 spots

Based on my predicted current roster structure there should be 13 remaining spots on the Lions 53-man roster. The players in this section are the current leaders for those final spots but will be challenged by the players in the next two sections as things are far from settled.

RB4 Ty Johnson
RB/KR Jason Huntley
WR/RET/NB Jamal Agnew
TE/H-B Isaac Nauta
IOL/RT Kenny Wiggins
IOL6 Beau Benzschawel
NT2 John Penisini
DT3 Kevin Strong
LB/Sp.T Jalen Reeves-Maybin
CB/Gunner Mike Ford
NB/Gunner Tony McRae
FS/Gunner C.J. Moore
P Jack Fox

In my  “Establishing the 53” articles I explained in more detail why I selected each of the players listed above. Those articles are in the “explanation” link after each player for easier access to those pieces:

In the Hunt

The players in this group will need some help in order to find their way onto the 53-man roster. They could either benefit from the Lions constructing the roster differently or they could beat one player ahead of them to move up a section.

QB3 David Blough
FB Nick Bawden
WR5 Geronimo Allison
WR5 Chris Lacy
WR5 Travis Fulgham
TE4 Hunter Bryant
IOL Oday Aboushi
RT Dan Skipper
NT2 John Atkins
DT3 Jashon Cornell
LB5 Reggie Ragland
LB/Sp.T Miles Killebrew
LB/Sp.T Elijah Lee
CB/Gunner Darryl Roberts
CB/Gunner Dee Virgin
P Aaryn Siposs

The “Establishing the 53” series of articles listed in the above section explain in more detail why these players are still in the hunt for a roster spot.

Have work to do

These players found a spot on the 90-man roster due to their previous accomplishments but based on the other additions to the roster, they will have some work to do in the preseason if they hope to beat the odds and make the 53-man team.

RB Wes Hills
FB Luke Sellers
WR Geremy Davis
Slot Tom Kennedy
Slot Victor Bolden
TE Matt Sokol
RG Joshua Garnett
IOL Russell Bodine
OG Caleb Benenoch
OT Matt Nelson
DL Frank Herron
DE Olive Sagapolu
DE Jonathan Wynn
LB Jason Cabinda
LB Anthony Pittman
LB Christian Sam
CB Michael Jackson
S Jalen Elliott
S Jeremiah Dinson
S Bobby Price
LS Steve Wirtel

There are always players who surprise when they get to camp and while the players in this section have a lot of work to do, they can’t be ruled out at this time.

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Detroit Lions Breakdown podcast, Episode 152: Wrapping up our 53-man projection

Detroit Lions Breakdown podcast, episode 152: “Wrapping up our 53-man projection”, is now available to download and listen.

This week on the Detroit Lions Breakdown Podcast, the guys continue to dig into Erik Schlitt’s series of articles at Lions Wire: Establishing the 53 — projecting the Lions’ 53-man roster. Last week’s DLB Episode 151 was focused on offense, and this episode closes out the roster by sorting through the Lions’ defense and special teams.

The DLB podcast is a weekly conversation with Lions Wire’s own Erik Schlitt and his co-host Joe Kania.

This week, the guys discuss:

Be sure to follow the Detroit Lions Breakdown Podcast (@LionsBreakdown) and its hosts Schlitt (@Erikschlitt) and Kania (@JoeKania_DLB) on Twitter, with a Facebook page on the way.

The podcast is available to listen at the DetroitLionsBreakdown.com website and is also available to download and subscribe to on multiple podcast platforms, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Play, Stitcher and others.

Establishing the 53: Full roster pre-summer projection

Projection the 2020 Detroit Lions 53-man roster ahead of training camp.

Over the last two weeks, I have examined each of the Detroit Lions position groups on the 90-man roster, in an attempt to give readers a more informative look at how I believe the Lions will narrow the field to just 53-players.

If you missed any of the previous articles in this series, you can see my thought process in more detail through the following pieces:

In this installment, I will overview my thought process step-by-step looking at the entire roster when narrowing the field.

Returning starters

The first step to establishing a 53-man roster is to identify the expected starters. On offense, the Lions are returning nine of their 11 starters from 2019, only needing to replace an offensive tackle and guard. Here are those nine returning starters:

  • QB: Matthew Stafford
  • RB: Kerryon Johnson
  • WR: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola
  • TE: T.J. Hockenson
  • LT: Taylor Decker
  • LG: Joe Dahl
  • C: Frank Ragnow

On defense, the Lions base 3-3-5 calls for 11 starters, but because of the frequency at which they use their defensive backs, I allow for an extra 12th defensive starter — a third safety — to accommodate for the scheme. Of those 12 spots, the Lions return seven starters:

  • DDE: Trey Flowers
  • DT/BIG DE: Da’Shawn Hand
  • Off-the-ball LB: Jarrad Davis, Jahlani Tavai
  • Nickel CB: Justin Coleman
  • JOKER safety: Tracy Walker
  • 3rd Safety: Will Harris

On special teams, the Lions return two starters:

  • K: Matt Prater
  • LS: Don Muhlbach

Roster tally: The Lions have 18 spots filled based on returning starters, leaving 37 spots remaining. Here’s an at-a-glance look at the Lions roster so far:

Anticipated starters after the offseason

The next step is to add in the newly rostered players who are expected to fill out the remaining starting spots. On offense, even though there are two obvious spots remaining on the offensive line, there is an argument to be made that the Lions will have duel starters at running back. Here are the additions on offense:

  • RB: D’Andre Swift
  • RT: Halapoulivaati Vaitai
  • RG: Jonah Jackson

On defense, I am adding another dual starter spot at defensive tackle, because when the Lions shift to a four-man front, Hand will shift outside to Big DE and they will need another interior starter. Here are the additions on defense:

  • NT: Danny Shelton
  • DT: Nick Williams
  • Off-the-ball LB: Jamie Collins
  • JACK: Julian Okwara
  • CB: Desmond Trufant, Jeff Okudah
  • FS: Duron Harmon

On special teams, only the punter spot remained, and for now, the likely leader is:

  • P: Jack Fox

Roster tally: With the new players and added starter spots, the Lions roster now sits at 29 players, leaving 24 spots open for reserves. Here is an updated at-a-glance look at the Lions roster:

Adding in the role players

Next, I look at the reserves that play key roles that would be difficult to replace. On offense, that includes a backup QB, power runner, deep threat, big slot, blocking TE, swing tackle, and high ceiling reserve interior offensive lineman.

  • QB: Chase Daniel
  • RB: Bo Scarbrough
  • WR, Marvin Hall, Quintez Cephus
  • TE: Jesse James
  • OT: Tyrell Crosby
  • OG: Logan Stenberg

On defense, it’s the same exercise, adding two rotational pass rushers, a reserve LB with positional range, a developmental upside CB, and matchup Safety:

  • DDE: Romeo Okwara
  • JACK: Austin Bryant
  • Off-the-ball LB: Christian Jones
  • CB: Amani Oruwariye
  • S: Jayron Kearse

Roster tally: With the key role players factored in, the Lions roster is now up to 41 players with just a dozen spots remaining. Here is an updated at-a-glance look at the Lions roster:

Final 53-man projection

Adding the first 41 players isn’t the challenging part as they play obvious roles for this organization. The difficult part is projecting who the final 12 players are.

The “Establishing the 53” articles that preceded this one explain in more detail why I selected each of the players listed below. Those articles are listed at the top of this piece and I also put an “explanation” link after each player for easier access to those pieces:

The final at-a-glance look at the Lions 53-man roster projection:

Final thoughts

Things are far from settled — especially among the last group of players — and training camp will surely bring some clarity, but as of today, with the happenings in the world being what they are, this is who I believe to be the front runners for the Lions 2020 53-man roster.

Here is a reminder at-a-glance look at the Lions 90-man roster:

Establishing the 53: Landing on a punter

Examining the Detroit Lions special teamers and debating who and how many players they will keep on the 53-man roster.

It’s never too early to examine and speculate about the Detroit Lions roster. Currently, the Lions have 90-players on their roster, and come September, there will likely be some difficult decisions to make when determining their final 53-players.

Previously, in this series of articles at Lions Wire, I identified the first 50 players in my projection by rounding out the running backs group, declaring a winner in the fullback versus H-back competition, adding an offensive weapon, narrowing down the offensive line, breaking down the defensive line, establishing the top options at linebacker, and sorting the defensive backs. In this piece, I will fill out the final three spots on the projected roster by examining the specialists in the kicking game.

Placekicker

Matt Prater sits alone on the placekicking depth chart with no threat to his roster spot — if there was any doubt. 

Erik’s take: Not only is Prater kicking unopposed, but he is in the final year of his contract and is a real contender for a fall contract extension.

Long snapper

Don Muhlbach will split long snapping duties in camp with undrafted rookie Steve Wirtel, who will be looking to show off his potential for 31 teams in the NFL. But unless Muhlbach suffers an injury, Wirtel won’t knock off Muhlbach for the Lions job.

Wirtel was likely added to the roster for four main reasons. First, Wirtel was on the Lions roster at the Senior Bowl and likely established a solid relationship with the staff. Second, he was widely considered the second-best long snapper in this class — the first was drafted by the Dolphins — and has NFL talent. Third, Muhlbach will turn 39-years-old during training camp and will require rest periods as not to be overworked. And lastly, Muhlbach could retire in the next few years and the Lions could be building the groundwork to bring back Wirtel in the future.

Erik’s take: The goat Muhlbach isn’t going anywhere. 

Punter battle

The Lions have two punters on the roster, Jack Fox and Arryn Siposs. Let’s take a closer look at each to see if either can separate from the other.

Fox went undrafted out of Rice in 2019 and signed with the Kansas City Chiefs. He played so well during the last years training camp and preseason that the Chiefs initially placed him on the practice squad before eventually moving on when they need more space. The Lions seized the opportunity to sign Fox to their practice squad in early December and when he showed well during practices, they signed him to a futures deal in January.

Fox has a very big leg, averaged 45.5 yards per punt at Rice, and has the ability to flip the field with any kick. Behind the scenes of Allen Park, Fox has been held in such high regard that Dave Birkett of the Free Press suggested the “Fox may be good enough that the Lions don’t need to draft a punter this offseason” — which indeed came to fruition.

While they didn’t draft a punter, immediately following the draft the Lions added Siposs to compete with Fox. The addition of Siposs isn’t just as a camp leg either, he is plenty talented enough to play in the NFL, and he is a bit different than your average rookie punter.

Siposs was drafted by the Saints at age 17 — that’s the St. Kilda Saints of the Australian Football League — where he played Australian rules football professionally for five years before shoulder injuries forced him from the league. In 2017, Siposs pivoted to American football and earned a scholarship to Auburn for the last two years.

A natural athlete, Siposs offers the Lions a different kind of punter. One who is comfortable kicking both traditionally and in creative/unique ways — including punting on the move, cross body, and directionally unique angles.

While training camp will ultimately decide Fox and Siposs fate, each offer Lions new special teams coach Brayden Coombs something special to work with.

Erik’s take: This is a true camp battle but based on the Lions approach this offseason, most indicators point to Fox being in the lead for now. I’m penciling him into my 53-man roster.

Establishing the 53: Projecting the Lions’ DBs

Examining the Detroit Lions defensive backs and project who and how many players they will keep on the 53-man roster.

It’s never too early to examine and speculate about the Detroit Lions roster. Currently, the Lions have 90-players on their roster, and come September, there will likely be some difficult decisions to make when determining their final 53-players.

Previously, in this series of articles at Lions Wire, we rounded out the running backs group, declared a winner in the fullback versus H-back competition, added an offensive weapon, narrowed down the offensive line,  broke down the defensive line, established the top options at linebacker, and in this piece, we will project the Lions’ defensive backs — with 11 spots open on the 53-man roster.

Setting the table

While there are clearly defined starting roles on defense, the defensive backs are grouped together as their positional reserve roles do have some crossover, especially on special teams.

On defense, the Lions deploy five defensive backs in their base set, relying on two outside corners, a JOKER safety, a free safety, with the slot role alternating between a nickel corner or third safety. When they expand to six defensive backs, they typically keep both slot options on the field at the same time. The Lions also have defensive sets that use seven defensive backs in obvious passing situations.

Because of all defensive combinations and the frequency at which they deploy three corners and/or three safeties, it’s important to identify all six players as starters — even if they are not officially identified as such.

Identifying starters at corner

At corner, there has been a two-thirds overhaul among the starters with only Justin Coleman returning. Coleman has the potential to play both inside and out, but he takes roughly 75-percent of his snaps out of the slot.

The Lions were aggressive in landing free agent Desmond Trufant, and after seven years starting for the Falcons, it is assumed he will take a starting role on the outside. Trufant will turn 29-years-old when the season starts and the Lions are likely hoping he can hold down the CB1 role while their top 2020 draft pick acclimates to the league.

Jeff Okudah was drafted third overall for a reason and even general manager Bob Quinn has acknowledged that he is expecting him to start in 2020. Okudah has the talent level to win the CB1 job outright, or make claim to the role by the end of the season.

Erik’s take: Okudah, Trufant, and Coleman are clear Day 1 starters.

CB depth battle

After the trio above, the next notable name at corner is Amani Oruwariye. Oruwariye flashed skills in training camp, showed development throughout the year and should be considered the top reserve option. He is an outside corner only — and that’s probably not changing — but there is a need for a reliable third option at this spot.

Challenging Oruwariye on the outside will be Darryl Roberts — a two-year starter with the Jets — and third-year undrafted corner Mike Ford. Both players have plenty of speed and can contribute on multiple special teams units. Roberts has the experience edge, while Ford has shown the ability to step up when his number was called for the Lions in the past.

The options in the slot are not as strong with special teamers Jamal Agnew and free agent Tony McRae challenging to backup Coleman. The need here isn’t as pressing due to the third safety, but the Lions would benefit from at least one of these players stepping up their ability to play on defense.

Erik’s take: Lock Oruwariye in here based on upside alone, but beyond that, special teams will likely be the deciding factor.

Identifying starters at safety

Tracy Walker’s star is shining brighter with every passing day and he plays one of the most critical spots in the Lions’ scheme: the JOKER safety role. The JOKER is the most flexible player on the field, and Walker will split his time between the box (linebacker level), over the slot (covering tight ends, slot receivers, and running backs), and at deep safety.

Walker is reliable as a deep safety valve, but he can be most impactful when he lines up closer to the line of scrimmage — which is why the Lions traded for Duron Harmon.

Harmon will take over the single-high free safety role and will be the first natural centerfielder the Lions have had since Glover Quin. His experience — and success — in the scheme makes him an instant starter, and his ability to flex between positions will allow him and Walker to disguise coverage intentions.

The battle for the third safety role (the old Tavon Wilson role) will come down to second-year safety Will Harris and free agent acquisition Jayron Kearse.

Harris was drafted in the third round of the 2019 draft with the intention of developing him into this role. Last year he cross-trained at all three safety spots but was noticeably more successful when lining up over the slot and in the box. He should be the front runner for the job, but Kearse’s skill set offers a new range of skills. Kearse is big (6-4, 216), long (34.25″ arm length), and can cover, which will make him very appealing when the Lions want to play matchup football.

Erik’s take: Walker and Harmon are locked in starters, while Harris should get the early nod for the third-safety role based on his scheme experience.

Safety depth battle

Kearse should be an easy addition to the trio above, giving them four players they should feel comfortable putting on the field.

Beyond those four, the group is rounded out with four undrafted players: C.J. Moore in 2019 and three more added this offseason in Jalen Elliott, Jeremiah Dinson, and Bobby Price.

If the Lions keep a fifth safety, which one will likely come down to how they perform on special teams.

Erik’s take: Kearse is in. A fifth safety is still an option. 

Special teams battles

With 11 spots open for defensive backs, we have filled eight of them with four corners and four safeties — leaving three spots remaining.

After being benched in Week 2, Agnew bounced back in a big way, scoring touchdowns on both a punt and kick returns, the only player to do that in the NFL last season. He will be challenged by fifth-round pick, Jason Huntley — who had five kick return touchdowns in college — but Agnew has been a weapon on special teams and, at this time, should be expected to secure a spot on the 53.

That leaves the Lions with two spots remaining — and no gunners.

When the Lions signed McRae, I specifically broke down how that impacted the gunner competition. To summarize my conclusion, McRae’s relationship with new special teams coordinator Brayden Coombs should give him a leg up for one of the gunner roles, leaving Dee Virgin, Moore, and Ford battling it out for the final spot. Roberts — who wasn’t on the roster when I wrote the article — should also be in consideration here. Elliott, Dinson, and Price will also get a shot in camp but until I see them compete in person I can’t consider them options.

Based on the information available to me at this time, the final gunner role will likely come down to Virgin, Moore, Ford, and Roberts. Any of these four could make a push for a spot, but Virgin and Moore — the Lions’ starting gunners last year — lack Roberts and Ford’s ability to contribute on defense, which could be a difference-maker.

Erik’s take: The final three spots go to Agnew, McRae, and Ford for now, but all of their roles are in jeopardy come training camp.

Conclusion

In this projection, the Lions wrap up their defense with 11 players, who will play in the following roles:

  • Outside corners: Okudah, Trufant, Oruwariye, Ford
  • Nickel/dime corners: Coleman, Agnew, McRae
  • Position versatile safeties: Walker, Harmon, Harris, Kearse
  • Kick/punt returner: Agnew
  • Gunner: McRae, Ford
  • 4-phase special teams contributors: Kearse, Harris

Establishing the 53: breaking down the LB group

Examining the Detroit Lions linebackers and debating who and how many players they will keep on the 53-man roster.

It’s never too early to examine and speculate about the Detroit Lions roster. Currently, the Lions have 90-players on their roster, and come September, there will likely be some difficult decisions to make when determining their final 53-players.

Previously, in this series of articles at Lions Wire, we rounded out the running backs group, declared a winner in the fullback versus H-back competition, added an offensive weapon, narrowed down the offensive line, broke down the defensive line, and in this piece, look at the linebackers.

Setting the table

The Lions don’t use their linebackers like traditional 43 or 34 base players, instead opting to use traits from both schemes and asking their linebackers to be fluid in moving between positions.

In the Lions base defense, they deploy three linebackers on most downs. In the picture below, Jarrad Davis (40) is the MIKE, Christian Jones (52) is the WILL, and Devon Kennard (42) is the JACK.

The MIKE and WILL are off-the-ball players, with the JACK typically living at the line-of-scrimmage. While this is their base set, the Lions will lineup — and pass rush/cover — their linebackers in a variety of ways, as deception is part of the scheme.

For more detailed looks at how the linebackers are used in this scheme, please take a look at my film study: explaining how the Lions LB roles changed in 2019, and how adding Jamie Collins in free agency points to the linebacker positions being positionally fluid moving forward.

Natural JACK LBs

As mentioned in the Collins article, the adding of Collins and releasing of Kennard point to a shift in how the JACK linebacker spot is used. Instead of having a dedicated player at the position, the Lions appear to be leaning towards rotating off-the-ball linebackers and natural JACK linebackers here and in other roles.

In the last two drafts, the Lions have selected two JACK linebackers: Austin Bryant (in the fourth round in 2019) and Julian Okwara (third round in 2020) — both look like strong options for the final 53-man roster.

In addition to JACK, Bryant’s secondary position is as a down defensive end, while Okwara’s secondary position will likely be off-the-ball, with the goal of turning him into the next Jamie Collins. Both players were injured last season — Bryant with the Lions and Okwara at Notre Dame — and it points to them being rotational players in 2020 while they gain experience.

Erik’s take: With high developmental ceilings, both Okwara and Bryant should make the 53 with ease.

Who else can play JACK?

Anthony Pittman has also been a player primarily used at JACK, but at 225-pounds it’s hard to feel confident with him holding up there on a regular basis. He has also been cross-trained at the off-the-ball linebacker spots.

In college, both Jamie Collins and Christian Jones were pass-rushing linebackers and while they have transitioned to more off-the-ball roles in the NFL, they are also capable of rotating through the JACK position making them very valuable players in this scheme.

Jahlani Tavai and Reggie Ragland are also capable of rushing off the edge but they’re better suited as at the line-of-scrimmage run stuffers rather than pass rushers.

Jarrad Davis, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Miles Killebrew, Jason Cabinda, Christian Sam, and Elijah Lee are more traditional off-the-ball linebackers and are not considered players who can play at the JACK spot unless they expand their games.

Starter battle

With no dedicated JACK, I am anticipating the Lions to use three off-the-ball linebackers as their base starting unit, with plenty of rotation through all spots. There are four primary contenders for those spots.

Collins — who saw 80.7-percent of snaps in New England last year — was the Lions’ big-ticket free agent this offseason and should be considered a lock for a starting role. His contract backs that up, as it averages ($10 million) nearly triple any other Lions linebacker’s salary. For example, even Collins’ lower cap hit of $6.3 million in 2020 is a stone’s throw away from total cap hits of  Davis, Jones, and Tavai, which equals $7.4 million.

Last year Davis (57.3-percent of snaps) and Jones (53.3-percent) were the technical off-the-ball starters, but Tavai also saw starter levels snaps (52.2-percent). A similar rotation of these three in 2020 wouldn’t be overly surprising.

Erik’s take: Personally I think Tavai makes a leap in 2020 and earns a starting role, next to Collins and Davis, while Jones will come off the bench but still see a starters levels of snaps. 

Reserves LBs vs Special teamers

With Bryant, Okwara, Collins, Tavai, Davis, and Jones securing the top spots, that only leaves one or two spots for a reserve linebacker.

The first player that should be considered is Ragland. His ability to be positionally fluid is a big plus, but he has always been a part-time player in the NFL. With the Chiefs, he saw only 21.3-percent of their defensive snaps in 2019, 49.4-percent in 2018, and 29.3-percent in 2017. His $962,500 cap hit doubles down on the fact that the Lions only see him as a reserve player as well. There is a contingent of Lions fans who would rather see Ragland get a shot over Davis but I don’t believe that to be a realistic option at this stage.

His primary competition is special teams’ demon Reeves-Maybin. He is not nearly as good a fit in the scheme as Ragland, but Reeves-Maybin is among the elite special teams’ players in the league — PFF gave him a 90.0 special teams grade in 2019 — and that will go a very long way with this organization.

Killebrew is even more limited than Reeves-Maybin in what he can do on defense, but he is also among the best special teams players on the roster. It’s also worth noting that his new contract carries a $1.05 million cap hit in 2020, which is slightly higher than both Ragland and Reeves-Maybin ($978,273). Elijah Lee has similar PFF special teams grades to Killebrew and will also be competition for this role.

Like Ragland, Cabinda and Sam are great scheme fits but offer more on special teams. They will need to take big strides in their game to make the 53,  but the practice squad is a likely landing for at least one of them.

Erik’s take: With defensive positions at a premium, reserves need to play multiple roles, including special teams, so give me Reeves-Maybin as my top option in this group. 

Conclusion

With Collins, Tavai, Davis, Jones, and Okwara rotating through three spots, along with Bryant and Reeves-Maybin holding down key roles, the Lions linebacker corps is improved from last season.

Ragland will likely be one of the final cuts, but as long as Davis is on the roster, Ragland will likely get pushed off it. Killebrew will also be a difficult cut, but he is somewhat redundant with safety Jayron Kearse, who seems like a safe bet for the 53. Additionally, expect one or two from the linebacker group to be kept on the practice squad for developmental purposes.

Detroit Lions Breakdown podcast, Episode 151: Top-25 on offense

Detroit Lions Breakdown podcast, episode 151: “Top-25 on offense”, is now available to download and listen.

This week on the Detroit Lions Breakdown Podcast, the guys dig into Erik Schlitt’s new series of articles at Lions Wire: Establishing the 53 — projecting the Lions’ 53-man roster. This episode will focus entirely on the offensive side of the ball, will discuss each player’s chances to make the roster, and the Top-25 players will be identified.

The DLB podcast is a weekly conversation with Lions Wire’s own Erik Schlitt and his co-host Joe Kania.

This week, the guys discuss:

Be sure to follow the Detroit Lions Breakdown Podcast (@LionsBreakdown) and its hosts Schlitt (@Erikschlitt) and Kania (@JoeKania_DLB) on Twitter, with a Facebook page on the way.

The podcast is available to listen at the DetroitLionsBreakdown.com website and is also available to download and subscribe to on multiple podcast platforms, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Play, Stitcher and others.