Tag: ESPN FPI

ESPN FPI updates and predictions on Ohio State football’s remaining win probability for remaining schedule

It’s time to take another look at what the ESPN FPI says about the win probability of Ohio State football’s remaining 2020 schedule.

We continue to take a look at what the ESPN Football Percentage Index thinks will happen with the remaining games on Ohio State football’s 2020 schedule. And while the Buckeyes were unable to play Saturday because of a coronavirus outbreak with Maryland, other teams were in action, and that means the landscape of the league changed yet again.

With things like Michigan being boat raced by Wisconsin and Indiana continuing to win, there have been changes to the win probability of each of Ohio State’s next opponents and we’re here to bring it to you again as we do every week.

You’ll see that Ohio State is still a heavy favorite for all the remaining regular-season games, but some of the movements are a bit surprising. Then again, nobody really knows what goes into the secret sauce of the FPI.

So off we go, an updated look at ESPN’s FPI win probability model for Ohio State football’s remaining schedule.

Wisconsin has a surprisingly high chance to make the playoff according to ESPN FPI

The Badgers have a better chance than you think according to ESPN FPI

Following a wire-to-wire win in Ann Arbor over Michigan, Wisconsin sits at 2-0 with a battle of the undefeated’s looming next week at Northwestern.

ESPN’s Football Power Index might be higher on the Badgers than most Wisconsin fans are at this point in the season. Keep in mind that UW has cancelled two games (Nebraska, Purdue) due to a COVID-19 outbreak, and would need to play their next four games in order to even be eligible for Big Ten Championship week and have a chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Despite the obstacles, FPI gives UW an over 50% chance to make the College Football Playoff. FPI gives the Badegrs a 54.1% chance to make the four-team playoff, a 32% chance to make the title game, and a 17% chance of winning the whole thing.

So, how does that compare to other top contenders? Only two schools have a better chance of making the College Football Playoff according to FPI: Ohio State and Alabama. Both Wisconsin and Ohio State have a better than 50% chance of getting in, which signifies that the model sees a two-Big Ten team CFP as a real possibility.

Texas Longhorns path to the Big 12 Championship Game using FPI

The Longhorns are currently sitting in the thick of the title game race. So how does Texas make it to the dance?

A week from Saturday the Texas Longhorns begin their final stretch of the 2020 college football season. Continue reading “Texas Longhorns path to the Big 12 Championship Game using FPI”

What ESPN’s FPI looks like with the Big Ten now playing this fall

Remember the early-May ESPN FPI projection that gave the Wisconsin Badgers the No. 4-highest chance to both make the College Football…

Remember the early-May ESPN FPI projection that gave the Wisconsin Badgers the No. 4-highest chance to both make the College Football Playoff and win the National Championship?

Those rankings have updated constantly with the Big Ten and Pac-12 originally cancelling their 2020 seasons, the Big Ten reinstating their season and conferences from around the country playing the first two weeks of their schedules.

So where do the Badgers stand now? Still at No. 4 behind only the Ohio State Buckeyes, Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers.

Related: Four takeaways from the Badgers’ new 2020 football schedule

The metric gives the team a projected record of 7.3-1.6, an 11.5 percent chance to win out, a 78.8 percent chance at winning the Big Ten West, a 26.9 percent chance to win the Big Ten, a 38.8 percent chance to make the College Football playoff, a 17.8 percent chance to make the National Championship and, finally, a 7.5 percent chance to finish the season national champions.

Notable Big Ten teams included towards the top of ESPN’s FPI includes Ohio State again at No. 1, Penn State at No. 6, Michigan at No. 15, Indiana at No. 18 and Northwestern at No. 19.

Related: LOOK: The Badgers have their new 2020 football schedule

The Badgers are scheduled to kick off their season October 24 at home against the Illinois Fighting Illini in, if ESPN FPI is any indication of what is to come, what could line up to be a special season in Madison.

An updated look at the Badgers’ FPI rating after schedules nationwide moved to conference-only

On May 1 ESPN FPI rankings gave the Badgers the No. 4-highest chance of reaching the college football playoff at 34 percent. Since then…

On May 1 ESPN FPI rankings gave the Badgers the No. 4-highest chance of reaching the college football playoff at 34 percent.

Since then a lot has changed across the college football landscape with conferences moving to conference-only schedules, a likely fan-less atmosphere and players beginning to opt out of the 2020 season.

I’ve written a lot about how the schedule changes have helped the Badgers’ chances at winning the Big Ten and making the college football playoff. Well, ESPN updated their FPI rankings and they are tending to agree.

Specifically, in their updated rankings the Badgers still stand at No. 4 in the country with an FPI rating of 23.7 but now have a projected record of 9.0-1.9, an 8.3 percent chance to win out, an 87.1 percent chance to win the Big Ten West, a 33.5 percent chance to win the conference, a 33.2 percent chance to make the playoff, a 14.3 percent chance to make the National Championship game and a 5.1 chance to win it all.

The only teams ranked ahead of the Paul Chryst’s team? Clemson, Ohio State and Alabama. That’s some pretty impressive company.

Other Big Ten teams high in the rankings are Penn State at No. 7, Michigan at No. 19, Iowa at No. 22, Indiana at No. 23, Northwestern at No. 25 and Minnesota at No. 30.

Football is obviously about a lot more than just the math and probabilities entering the season, but seeing the Badgers ranked in the top-4 is a welcome sight after the team has fallen short in recent years and is still seeking their first Big Ten title since 2012.

ESPN Football Power Index projects another big season for 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are among five likeliest teams to win the Super Bowl per ESPN’s FPI. They’ve come a long way.

The 49ers’ continuity coming off a 13-win season and a jaunt to the Super Bowl bodes well for their chances to find similar success in 2020. ESPN’s Football Power Index projects San Francisco to be among the NFL’s best teams again, and has them among the five favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Per ESPN’s prediction model, the 49ers are projected for 10.2 wins and have an 81 percent chance of making it back to the postseason. Their win total ties them with the Saints for the best in the NFC. Both clubs are behind the Chiefs and Ravens. New Orleans is just ahead of San Francisco in playoff chances at 83 percent.

New Orleans is also just ahead of the 49ers among projected Super Bowl winners. The Chiefs lead that category at 21 percent, followed by the Ravens at 17 percent. The Saints are at 13 percent, one point in front of the 49ers.

Projection models aren’t perfect predictors of success, but they provide a good snapshot of where teams are going into the season. The 49ers traded away arguably their best player on defense and had their Pro Bowl left tackle retire during the draft. It would stand to reason that there’d be a regression.

However, they’ve built a strong enough roster, and maneuvered through the draft to replace defensive tackle DeForest Buckner with No. 14 overall pick Javon Kinlaw, and left tackle Joe Staley with seven-time Pro Bowler Trent Williams.

The biggest takeaway from ESPN’s FPI projections is that the 49ers should be in the mix for a Super Bowl again despite two significant losses in the offseason. That shouldn’t be a stretch if Kinlaw and first-round wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk adapt quickly to the NFL. They’ll be tasked with filling two of the voids created on each side of the ball during the offseason.

While teams generally have a hard to recovering from a Super Bowl loss,  the 49ers are in a unique position to be at an advantage with the truncated offseason brought on by COVID-19 shutdowns. Integrating fewer players into substantial roles will allow San Francisco to be somewhat ahead of the curve whenever the NFL does open team facilities for offseason activities.

Two years ago the 49ers were wrapping up a 4-12 season that earned them the No. 2 overall pick. Now they’re coming off a Super Bowl loss and are among the favorites to make it back. Winning a Lombardi Trophy is the ultimate goal, but being in the conversation as perennial contenders is a good start.

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ESPN FPI forecasts Chiefs’ win total, playoff, Super Bowl chances

ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Kansas City Chiefs with a 94% chance to make the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2020 NFL season as Super Bowl LIV champions. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, they also enter the season as the NFL’s best team and favorite to repeat in Super Bowl LV.

FPI is ESPN’s prediction tool for the NFL, which was developed in 2015. It ranks teams but also calculates win totals, playoff and Super Bowl chances. Here is the quick and dirty rundown of how the model works: It predicts offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency for the upcoming seasons based on a number of different factors such as previous team efficiencies, EPA per play, returning starters, and injuries. All of the factors are accounted for in single-game projections. Then each team’s season is simulated by ESPN a total of 10,000 times, providing calculations for win totals, playoff and Super Bowl chances.

The 2020 offseason has been really good to Kansas City so far. They’re returning a 20-of-22 offensive and defensive starters from the Super Bowl. They haven’t had any significant injuries or coaching changes during the offseason. That appears to have helped them in the FPI model.

After running the simulations, the Chiefs are ranked No. 1 and projected at 11.2 wins per ESPN FPI. They also have a 94% chance to make the playoffs with a 21% chance to win Super Bowl LV, which makes them the second-largest preseason favorite since FPI was created. It’s worth noting that Kansas City was also the preseason favorite to win Super Bowl LIV in 2019 FPI with a 15% chance.

One thing that really seemed to help the Chiefs in these rankings is the fact that they’re more than a touchdown better on offense than the average NFL team. ESPN also noted that offense is more easily predictable on a year-to-year basis than defense. They basically expect Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and the rest of the offensive playmakers to continue to be really good in 2020.

A few other nuggets related to Kansas City from ESPN’s FPI forecast:

  • The Denver Broncos are predicted to have the toughest schedule in the NFL with the Las Vegas Raiders coming in with the third-toughest. That is in part due to the fact they have to face the Chiefs twice during the regular season.
  • The AFC West is tied with the AFC South for the most-likely division in the AFC to boast the seventh playoff team in the NFL’s new playoff format.

The big question that I’m not certain this prediction model or any model can account for — How will the lack of offseason training thus far impact the Chiefs and other teams? The answer to that question could certainly impact ESPN FPI’s forecast.

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Athlon Sports lists the Badgers as the third-best Big Ten team in their recent Top 25

Athlon Sports released their Top 25 for the 2020 season earlier today and had Wisconsin at No. 12, good for the third-highest ranking of…

Athlon Sports released their Top 25 for the 2020 season earlier today and had Wisconsin at No. 12, good for the third-highest ranking of a Big Ten team.

Ahead of the Badgers are the Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 3 and the Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 5.

“Few question marks surround this team, but coach Paul Chryst’s squad has a couple to address on offense,” the article reads. “Who will fill the void left behind by Jonathan Taylor at running back? The Badgers may not lean on one option, instead choosing to rotate Nakia Watson, Garrett Groshek, Isaac Guerendo and freshmen Julius Davis and Jalen Berger in the backfield. Quarterback Jack Coan was steady (69.6 completion percentage) and didn’t make a lot of mistakes (five picks), but redshirt freshman Graham Mertz has more upside at the position. Can Mertz make a push for the starting job in the fall.”

The piece finishes its look into the 2020 Badger team talking about Jim Leonhard‘s defense, saying “Wisconsin’s defense held teams to 16.9 points a game in 2019 and ranks again among the best in the Big Ten. Coordinator Jim Leonhard’s group brings back nine starters, with linebackers Chris Orr and Zack Baun (24 combined sacks in 2019) leaving big shoes to fill at the position.”

This ranking comes on the heels of a No. 16 ranking in Sporting News’ recent Top 25, both rankings significantly lower than ESPN FPI having the Badgers as the fourth-best team in the country.

Latest ESPN FPI has Longhorns in the top 12

ESPN has released their preseason FPI rankings for the upcoming 2020 season, the Texas Longhorns come in the top 12.

Recently ESPN released their recent FPI (Football Power Index). For those unfamiliar with the FPI, here is the explanation on ESPN’s model.

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

Following the Longhorns victory over the Utah Utes in the Valero Alamo Bowl ESPN released their postseason FPI. They listed Texas inside the top 20. Their FPI at that time was 13, just a few months down the road and now the Longhorns find themselves ranked 11th with a FPI of 19.6. That number is just 0.5 behind their bitter rivals, Oklahoma.

  • Oklahoma (10th) FPI-20.1
  • Oklahoma State  (17th) 13.7
  • TCU  (20th) 12.0
  • Iowa State (27th) 9.9
  • Kansas State (32nd) 8.2
  • Baylor (34th) 7.8
  • Texas Tech (41st) 6.3
  • West Virginia (45th) 5.2
  • Kansas (98th) -6.7

The Longhorns will also play the LSU Tigers this upcoming season who ranked 6th in the FPI poll at 23.7.

Texas has a projected win total of 9.5 according to their simulations. There are a multitude of reasons that their FPI would increase over a four month span which could include a whole new staff essentially and the influx of another top ten recruiting class in 2020. This seems to fall right in line where most media outlets have Texas projected when it comes to their way too early top 25 rankings.

Chris Del Conte’s savage comment and football in the fall

Locked on Longhorns Podcast returns to discuss athletic director Chris Del Conte’s latest comments on playing the Aggies plus football talk.

Patrick and Cami open the show discussing Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte’s comment on playing Texas A&M in the future. Plus an update on Ja’Quinden Jackson as he recovers from partially torn ACL in December and new contracts set to be approved by the Texas Board of Regents.

They continue their depth chart discussion as they focus on the running back position. The NCAA Chief Medical Officer Brian Hainline’s comments about fall sports making a return. Another power five school has announced they are planning on returning to the practice field in the summer, is this another step towards a return to sports?

ESPN polled over 1,000 fans on whether or not they want sports to resume without fans. The results plus how do the hosts feel about it? ESPN has released their FPI (Football Power Index), where is Texas ranked? Mel Kiper Jr has released his top 25 big board for the 2021 NFL Draft, How many Longhorns are in the conversation?

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