Tag: playoff chances

How likely are the Bucs to make the postseason heading into Week 9?

As it stands, the Bucs will have to pick up some wins to get back in the playoff race.

October hasn’t been kind to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After a 3-1 start to the season, it seemed all doubt regarding Baker Mayfield and the Bucs was unwarranted. However, Tampa Bay has fallen back to earth and lost three games in a row.

The Bucs have a 26% chance of making the playoffs heading into Week 9 according to the New York Times.

Tampa Bay will travel to Texas this weekend and take on the Houston Texans (3-4). Led by rookie QB C.J. Stroud, ESPN Analytics predicts there’s a 50.6% chance the Texans will defeat the Bucs at home.

If Tampa Bay is defeated by Houston, its playoff hopes will drop to just 18%. But, if the Bucs can return back to the win column, they’ll have a 33% chance to make the playoffs.

As of Week 8, eight of the next 10 opponents Tampa Bay is set to face are at or below .500. The two teams above .500 are the San Francisco 49ers (Week 11) and Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 16).

Earning a win against the Texans is extremely important if the Bucs want to continue their playoff streak another year and maintain winning football in the Bay.

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Bucs’ playoff chances after their Week 5 bye

Here’s how ESPN’s FPI sees Tampa Bay’s chances of making the playoffs as they return to action in Week 6:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may be leading the division, but ESPN’s Football Power Index still isn’t impressed.

The Bucs didn’t play football in Week 5 due to taking their bye week, and in that time, the team dropped in FPI’s playoff chance percentage. The team is now predicted to have a 57.4% chance to make the playoffs this year — which wouldn’t be too bad, if that chance wasn’t lower than the New Orleans Saints at 61.7%.

It seems interesting that the Saints not only have a higher playoff percentage, but also have more projected wins than the Bucs and are rated higher in the FPI stat (-0.5 to -1.5). The Saints handily defeated the New England Patriots 34-0 on Sunday, but the Bucs dismantled the Saints 26-9 right before their bye week — why FPI would still favor New Orleans in all of these scenarios is unknown, though it could have to do with Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule.

Nonetheless, the Bucs will look to continue proving themselves when they face the Detroit Lions at home in their throwback attire at 4:25 p.m.

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News: Aikman thinks directionless Cowboys now capable of playoff run

Also, looking at Dallas’s playoff chances and possible opponents, what sparked the defense’s turnaround, and key injury updates.

Plenty of news in Cowboys Nation as the team prepares to close out the 2020 regular season with an early-2021 date in New York. Dallas can still make the postseason with a win and help, although their chances of going on to compete for the Lombardi Trophy are statistically infinitesimal. But even one of the franchise’s all-time legends agrees there is hope, and that’s something that seemed lost just a few weeks ago.

The Giants know the Cowboys are different bunch now, and their head coach breaks down the ways. A seemingly healthy Ezekiel Elliott could be looking at another 1,000-yard season, and some are already looking ahead to the Cowboys’ possible opponent in a wild-card round. Whatever happens, there will be decisions to be made: about fifth-year options on rookie contracts, about Andy Dalton’s future, about Mike Nolan and the Dallas defense that has only just recently come alive… and about the franchise tag of one Rayne Dakota Prescott. All that, and a Cowboys legend blows out the candles on another birthday cake. Here’s the News and Notes.

Cowboys News: Free agent, coordinator and draft targets for 2021

Dallas has a lot to fix this offseason.

Defense dominates the headlines in Dallas, even after its best performance of the season. Holding Cincinnati to a lone touchdown wasn’t enough to quash persistent speculation that coordinator Mike Nolan will be shown the door; many are already thinking about who should fill his role in 2021. But there will be turnover on the field, too, and there are plenty of veteran free agents and collegiate draft prospects to consider for the coming defensive rebuild. All that comes even as the Cowboys see several defensive backs make their return to the practice field on Wednesday.

Looking for silver linings on defense? Check out the profile on Randy Gregory and read up on why DeMarcus Lawrence is deserving of far more praise than he’s getting this year. Elsewhere on the roster, Ezekiel Elliott isn’t shutting it down anytime soon, Dalton Schultz has overachieved in a big way, and long snapper L.P. Ladouceur is about to break a unique record. We’re looking at what CeeDee Lamb’s done without Dak, and why Mike McCarthy’s staff may not actually want that postseason “honor” they could be in line for. There’s talk of how a 17-game season will work, and Jerry Jones stops short of trimming the preseason schedule. All that, plus a look at the Cowboys’ current playoff chances, a look ahead at their projected draft slot, and a look way, way, way back at their very first postseason win. Here’s the News and Notes.

Washington given just 12% chance to make playoffs after 1-2 start

Washington got off to a great start, but after two straight losses, they have an incredibly low chance to make the playoffs.

After a 1-2 start to the 2020 NFL season in the worst division in the league, things aren’t looking too bright for Washington. Though things remain wide open in the NFC East, with Washington currently tied with the Cowboys for first place at 1-2, there isn’t much hope for anyone to make it to the playoffs, outside of the division winner.

At the moment, with the Eagles and Giants also below .500 as well, it’s pretty much a crapshoot when it comes to predicting a future playoff team.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Washington’s postseason chances sit at just 12%, with only a 10% chance of winning the division. The only team with words odds of making the playoffs is the New York Giants, who have a 6% chance, with just 5% chance of winning the division.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s model, Washington is predicted to finish the season with a 5-11 record, just squeaking by the Giants for third place in the division. Elsewhere, the Eagles are predicted to finish at 5-10-1 (19% playoff chance) and the Cowboys at 9-7 (73% chance).

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ESPN FPI forecasts Chiefs’ win total, playoff, Super Bowl chances

ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Kansas City Chiefs with a 94% chance to make the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2020 NFL season as Super Bowl LIV champions. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, they also enter the season as the NFL’s best team and favorite to repeat in Super Bowl LV.

FPI is ESPN’s prediction tool for the NFL, which was developed in 2015. It ranks teams but also calculates win totals, playoff and Super Bowl chances. Here is the quick and dirty rundown of how the model works: It predicts offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency for the upcoming seasons based on a number of different factors such as previous team efficiencies, EPA per play, returning starters, and injuries. All of the factors are accounted for in single-game projections. Then each team’s season is simulated by ESPN a total of 10,000 times, providing calculations for win totals, playoff and Super Bowl chances.

The 2020 offseason has been really good to Kansas City so far. They’re returning a 20-of-22 offensive and defensive starters from the Super Bowl. They haven’t had any significant injuries or coaching changes during the offseason. That appears to have helped them in the FPI model.

After running the simulations, the Chiefs are ranked No. 1 and projected at 11.2 wins per ESPN FPI. They also have a 94% chance to make the playoffs with a 21% chance to win Super Bowl LV, which makes them the second-largest preseason favorite since FPI was created. It’s worth noting that Kansas City was also the preseason favorite to win Super Bowl LIV in 2019 FPI with a 15% chance.

One thing that really seemed to help the Chiefs in these rankings is the fact that they’re more than a touchdown better on offense than the average NFL team. ESPN also noted that offense is more easily predictable on a year-to-year basis than defense. They basically expect Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and the rest of the offensive playmakers to continue to be really good in 2020.

A few other nuggets related to Kansas City from ESPN’s FPI forecast:

  • The Denver Broncos are predicted to have the toughest schedule in the NFL with the Las Vegas Raiders coming in with the third-toughest. That is in part due to the fact they have to face the Chiefs twice during the regular season.
  • The AFC West is tied with the AFC South for the most-likely division in the AFC to boast the seventh playoff team in the NFL’s new playoff format.

The big question that I’m not certain this prediction model or any model can account for — How will the lack of offseason training thus far impact the Chiefs and other teams? The answer to that question could certainly impact ESPN FPI’s forecast.

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