Fantasy Football Injury Analysis – Page 11

Fantasy football injury outlook: RB Travis Etienne, Jaguars

After missing all of 2021, what can we expect from the former first-round pick?

He wasn’t the first running back to come off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft, but when the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Clemson running back Travis Etienne at pick No. 25 many people were convinced he would be the running back that made the biggest fantasy football impact in his rookie season, alongside college teammate Trevor Lawrence.

But his rookie season ended before it could get started when Etienne suffered a Lisfranc injury to his left foot that required surgery.

Although he is still limited in the amount of work he has been able to do in Jacksonville’s offseason program and he will likely start training camp with some restrictions, he is expected to be fully ready to go. Etienne is stepping into an advantageous spot, considering what happened while he was rehabbing his injury.

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There was some confusion about the type of role Etienne would have in what turned out to be a disastrous 11-month debacle with Urban Meyer as head coach. Few teams use a first-round draft pick on running backs, and those that do tend to immediately make them the featured backs in their offenses. The plan was to use Etienne in a Percy Harvin/Deebo Samuel type of role as both a runner and receiver who could be lined up anywhere on the field. However, that situation has changed dramatically.

When Etienne arrived in Jacksonville, there were questions as to how he would fit with a running game that was led by James Robinson, who had been pressed into unexpected feature back status with the surprise release of Leonard Fournette in the days leading up to the 2020 season opener. Robinson carved out of his own role and posted a 1,000-yard rushing season in 2020 before Etienne’s arrival. However, a 2021 Week 16 injury changed the two-headed backfield plans.

Robinson suffered a torn Achilles in mid-December. The standard timetable (Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers excluded) for a full return from a torn Achilles is nine to 12 months, which could take Robinson well into the regular season to return.

Fantasy football outlook

From the Etienne fantasy perspective, it couldn’t be a better scenario. His rehab has been going extremely well, and he was running full speed at the team’s summer minicamp. While he is still not cleared for full contact, everything coming out from the Jaguars coaches and medical staff is that Etienne will be a full participant when training camp begins, and there aren’t concerns of a recurrence. Many players have suffered Lisfranc injuries that requires screws to be surgically implanted in their injured foot and they come back strong, and most leave the screws in the foot because there is little to no associated pain.

Factoring Robinson likely missing in action early, Etienne’s chances to be a fantasy impact player increase considerably and make him a player to target.

Etienne’s 2021 injury should not be a major concern heading into 2022, and his fantasy draft ranking as a mid- to low-end RB2 is warranted. He offers more value in point-pet-reception scoring.

Fantasy football injury outlook: Odell Beckham Jr.

The timing of OBJ’s injury certainly doesn’t help his cause.

In the early portion of his career, Odell Beckham Jr. was rewriting the history books with the New York Giants. Four years and three teams later, Beckham is at a career crossroads and currently powerless to do anything about it.

Beckham remains an unsigned free agent and likely will be for some time after tearing his left ACL twice in two years. What makes Beckham’s current status different than most players coming back from injury is the timing of when it happened and his contract situation.

When Beckham tore his ACL in late October 2020, it took him 11 months to return. He didn’t make it back on the field until late September 2021. He missed training camp, preseason, and the first two regular season games, which wasn’t unusual. The timetable for coming back from a torn ACL is historically nine to 12 months, depending on the severity. The earlier in a season an injury occurs, the better the chance to be ready for the start of the following year.

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That is what makes the Beckham’s second ACL tear so daunting. It didn’t happen in October or November. It happened Feb. 13, 2022, in Super Bowl LVI. Beckham has recently claimed he played the second half of the 2021 season with the torn ACL, but it wasn’t diagnosed until it tore for good on the biggest stage of them all.

There are two components to Beckham’s recovery that are problematic: The first is the ability of his knee to recover from a second tear in less than 17 months. That’s a lot to ask of a young player, much less a player who turns 30 in November. The healing process slows with time, and there can’t be any setbacks to his progress in rehabilitating the injury, because he’s already likely looking at midseason at a minimum before a potential return.

Second, and perhaps worse, is that Beckham is a free agent. Effectively run out of town in both New York and Cleveland, the Los Angeles Rams signed Beckham for the remainder of 2021 as a mercenary for hire. He isn’t rehabbing at a team facility with its in-house medical personnel. He’s on his own, which creates its own set of issues in trying to get a new contract, but OBJ at least knows what it takes to rehab this specific injury.

Any team willing to pay Beckham before the start of the season will be making an investment on a player who will miss the first half at a minimum. Given how tight salary cap dollars are, especially for established teams with highly paid quarterbacks, there won’t be a robust market to sign Beckham among legitimate contenders unless he’s willing to sign another team-friendly deal like he did with the Rams last year.

Fantasy football outlook

If Beckham wants to have a career that lasts another four or five years, the best advice he can be given is to spend 2022 rehabbing and sign a deal with a team for 2023 when he’s fully healthy. Any team that signs him during this season will be doing so simply to have a part-time guy – and will likely pay accordingly. His best landing spot at this point is to re-sign with the Rams and not rush back. Don’t be shocked if you don’t see OBJ at all this season.

Should he ink with a team prior to the heart of fantasy football draft season, Beckham can be left to the wire in all but the deepest of leagues or those with multiple IR spots. He very well may flash a time or two in 2022, if given the opportunity, it will require a roster spot being absorbed for most of the fantasy campaign. That’s too much risk and not enough return on a draft-day investment.

Fantasy football injury outlook: WR Jameson Williams, Lions

When can fantasy football owners expect Williams’ debut?

Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams (knee) is not expected to be on the field when training camp opens for rookies Saturday, July 23. The first-round pick in April’s NFL draft ranks among the top players at the position, so it’s no surprise the coaching staff isn’t keen on rushing their franchise weapon back too soon from a January ACL tear.

Head coach Dan Campbell was asked on June 9 about Williams’ expected availability for camp, responding, “I don’t see him being ready for training camp. I don’t see that. I’m very hopeful, but I don’t see it. We’re going to do this thing the right way and when he’s ready, he’ll be ready. But, no, I don’t feel like you’re going to see him out there Day 1,” Campbell said.

Typically speaking, a player is physically recovered from knee reconstruction between six and nine months, which would put Week 1 of the regular season in jeopardy on the long end of things. Modern science has assisted players in returning sooner than in the past, where needing nine months to a year generally served as the target range.

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The tricky part no one can forecast is just how long it takes an individual player to trust the repaired knee and feel comfortable making all of the necessary football moves without giving it a second thought. In a game of inches, any fraction of time invested in hesitation can make all the difference.

When can fantasy footballers expect to see Williams back on the field? On the long end of things, Week 7 at Dallas would be the conservative approach if the Lions opt to put him on the Reserve/Physically Unable to Perform list. However, the recent revamping of the Reserve/Injured list rules means three weeks on the sidelines is the likelier outcome given the time frame we’ve established for Williams.

In that even, the Alabama standout will miss home games against Philadelphia and Washington as well as a trip to Minnesota before an Oct. 2 return to Motown to face Seattle. Based on projections, Philly is a poor matchup, Washington leans favorable, and Minnesota is a modest one with a slight lean toward the rookie’s favor.

Williams will suffer from missing most if not all of the offseason. The value of building chemistry with quarterback Jared Goff cannot be overstated, and there’s only so much a rookie can glean from mental reps within the playbook.

Fantasy football outlook

Factoring in Campbell’s lack of assurance about Williams’ return for camp and no immediate need to rush him back, fantasy footballers should not count on the first-round rookie making a splash before midseason. The likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark Jr., Josh Reynolds, Quintez Cephus and Kalif Raymond will be available to hold down the fort. That’s not to say Williams won’t be on the field prior to the midway point, but it’s going to potentially take that long before he’s remotely comfortable physically and mentally with the speed of the pro game.

For now, barring a miraculous change in his prognosis, Williams is a upper-end bench addition in most formats. He has WR3/flex appeal as the season winds to a close, perhaps just in time for a late push toward the fantasy playoffs.

Fantasy football injury outlook: RB Kenyan Drake, Raiders

Will Drake rebound from injury and a poor 2021 showing?

Little more than a curiosity during much of his three-plus seasons with the Miami Dolphins, running back Kenyan Drake truly emerged as a fantasy force after being acquired by the Arizona Cardinals in 2019 when he racked up 814 yards and eight touchdowns in eight games with the club. He followed that up with 1,092 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2020 — while not exactly disappointing, there was a significant per-game drop from 101.8 yards per outing to 72.8.

That dip in efficiency didn’t dissuade the Las Vegas Raiders from signing Drake to a two-year, $14.5 million contract before last season with $11 million guaranteed. Theoretically, the plan was to use Drake in conjunction with Josh Jacobs, but after totaling 34 touches over the season’s first three weeks, the former Cardinal would see double-digit opportunities just twice in his remaining nine games.

Drake’s season ended abruptly on Dec. 5 when he suffered a fractured right ankle. The injury required surgery, but there have been no reported complications, and the veteran is believed to be healing fine with the expectation he’ll be ready for camp. While there was some speculation about job security, the Raiders restructured Drake’s contract in March, so it’d be surprising not to see his name behind Jacobs on the depth chart.

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The question is whether the new coaching staff, led by head coach Josh McDaniels, who was hired after a 10-year run as offensive coordinator with the New England Patriots, will find more opportunities for Drake to contribute. If you take McDaniels’ approach with the Pats as a guide, the answer appears to be yes, as that offense utilized backs in specialized roles for many years. In fact, in those 10 seasons on the job, McDaniels presided over just two 1,000-yard backs, the most recent coming in 2016.

With the Raiders declining Jacobs’ fifth-year option, it’s clear they don’t necessarily view him as part of their future, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them use Jacobs more sparingly after watching his production decline each of his first three NFL seasons. The most logical stand in for Drake is probably James White, who was an effective passing-down back during McDaniels’ time in New England. While it has been a forgotten element of Drake’s game, remember that he caught 85 passes with the Dolphins in 2017-18 combined.

Fantasy football outlook

Based purely on his first season in Las Vegas, Drake shouldn’t be drafted. So many things have changed since then, however, you can’t read much into it. We know McDaniels likes to use multiple backs, and barring something unforeseen the top two will be Jacobs and Drake. There could even be a small role for rookie Zamir White, but it would come at the expense of Jacobs. While the shine of his days in Arizona is gone, Drake could be worth a late-round flier.

Fantasy football injury outlook: WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks

Plenty of question marks cloud Metcalf’s fantasy outlook, including foot surgery.

Despite playing one extra game in 2021, Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf saw the same number of targets (129) as his breakout 2020 campaign, but the results were far from as impressive. The then-third-year wideout saw his average fall to a career-low 12.9 yards per reception, and he averaged only 13.3 in point-per-reception scoring vs. 17.1 in ’20.

Metcalf’s substantial drop-off in yardage (1,303 vs. 967) overshadowed two more touchdowns over eight fewer grabs. Three of those dozen scores came in Week 17 against the Detroit Lions, which provided a 30.9-point performance to gamers who appeared in their league championship in spite of his down year.

Wide receiver running mate Tyler Lockett saw his career-high 100 receptions in 2020 dip to 73 a year ago, but his yards-per-catch average shot up to 16.1 from a mere 10.5, so what went wrong with Metcalf? In part, he faced extra defensive scrutiny, but that wasn’t the complete picture.

The Ole Miss star suffered through foot soreness — far from ideal for an explosive playmaker — after a having a screw inserted during a 2016 surgery to repair a fractured bone. Fast forward to February of 2022: Metcalf underwent a minor procedure to remove the bothersome hardware. He’s expected to be ready for training camp.

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While the foot shouldn’t be of much concern, Metcalf currently is holding out of mandatory minicamp and being fined by the team. This is the receiver’s way of showing his displeasure with not having a contract extension as he heads into what will be the final year of his rookie deal. In a recent podcast appearance with former NFL tight end Shannon Sharpe, Metcalf said he does not expect to hold out of training camp.

The 5-foot-11 elephant in the room is the loss of quarterback Russell Wilson via trade to Denver. The Seahawks acquired Drew Lock in that deal, and Geno Smith was re-signed to compete for the starting job. There’s still a small chance Seattle trades for a veteran, but it appears unlikely at this time.

A clear downgrade any which way one slices it, the loss of Wilson will be felt. In the trio of games No. 3 missed with a finger injury, Smith filled in well enough, and Metcalf remained quite relevant in fantasy lineups (6-58-0, 2-96-1, 6-43-2) while Lockett went into the witness protection program for two of the three contests but exploded (12-142-0) in the final one with Smith at the helm.

Lock has a livelier arm than Smith and adds underrated mobility but has struggled to avoid crucial mistakes in his limited action. He wasn’t able to beat out Teddy Bridgewater in Denver, a quarterback whose skill set is similar to that of Smith.

Fantasy football outlook

The foot issue shouldn’t factor in to gamers’ concerns when drafting as more than a passing thought when compared to the quarterback situation.

In early drafts, Metcalf has gone, on average, as WR12 (Pick 3:06) in PPR formats. While fair placement for what he is capable of doing on the field, it assumes enough risk that owners should look to invest earlier selections in positional depth.

Fantasy football injury outlook: RB Elijah Mitchell, 49ers

After breakout rookie showing, will Mitchell overcome offseason knee surgery?

When fantasy football owners looked at the San Francisco 49ers’ draft haul in 2021, two names stood out: quarterback Trey Lance and running back Trey Sermon. The team’s first- and third-round choices, respectively, would ultimately contribute sparingly. Instead, it would be San Francisco’s final selection who delivered for fantasy owners in the form of sixth-round pick Elijah Mitchell, the team leader in carries (207), rushing yards (963), and rushing touchdowns (6).

That he accomplished all of that while appearing in just 11 of 17 games makes it even more impressive, though it also lays the foundation for this piece as he missed time dealing with shoulder, rib, hand, head, and knee injuries — at least his ankles went unscathed. The knee injury was the most serious, and the 24-year-old opted to undergo a cleanup procedure on it following the season, though the hope is he’ll be ready to roll full speed by training camp.

For his part, Mitchell recognizes he wasn’t durable enough as a rookie, and he has reportedly been spending the offseason trying to bulk up to 215 pounds to better handle the rigors of life in the NFL (he weighed 201 pounds at the 2021 NF Scouting Combine). Whether adding size will act as a panacea for the durability issues is to be determined, as is whether that bulk will affect the speed that was his most desirable trait coming out of Louisiana.

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Perhaps of greater concern is the disposable nature of running backs under head coach Kyle Shanahan. Consider this, in Shanahan’s five seasons on the job in San Francisco, the 49ers have had five different leading rushers: Carlos Hyde (2017), Matt Breida (2018), Raheem Mostert (2019), Jeff Wilson (2020), and Mitchell (2021). That’s enough time to be considered a trend, and it’s one that doesn’t bode well for a second-year back who had trouble staying on the field.

There’s no shortage of options in the backfield, either. That includes rookie Tyrion Davis-Price, a third-round pick out of LSU who boasts the type of speed/agility combination that Shanahan covets. Wilson, who finished third on the team in rushing last year, and Sermon, who struggled as a rookie but clearly has talent, are also options.

In addition, wide receiver Deebo Samuel became more and more involved in the running game as the season wore on, finishing second on the club in rushing yards (365) while averaging 6.2 per attempt. Granted, there are contract issues and a trade demand to work out with Samuel, but until Week 1 arrives without him in a 49ers uniform that’s just smoke. Working Mitchell’s favor is Samuel’s reported disinterest in playing running back again, so tuck that thought away as a potential upside factor.

Areas of concern that must be addressed: The 49ers lost borderline Hall of Famer center Alex Mack to retirement this offseason, and Pro Bowl guard Laken Tomlinson — who is a beast in the running game — went to the New York Jets via free agency. Lance will likely start for the Niners, which means his rushing prowess is bound to steal looks from Mitchell, especially in the red zone.

Fantasy football outlook

As of today, Mitchell is the top back to own in San Francisco’s crowded backfield, which is not a ringing endorsement given his questionable durability, Shanahan’s view on the position, Lance’s presence, OL concerns, and the team’s proven ability to run the ball effectively no matter who’s carrying the rock. Consider Mitchell a quality RB3 with elevated risk potential.

Fantasy football injury outlook: New York Giants wide receivers

Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard injury updates for fantasy football purposes.

The 2021 New York Giants were nothing short of a total disaster for fantasy football purposes, and a large reason was the revolving door at wide receiver, thanks to a bloodthirsty injury bug.

Two of the prominent losses down the stretch were rookie first-rounder Kadarius Toney and veteran slot man Sterling Shepard. The former missed seven of the final eight contests with various ailments and underwent arthroscopic knee surgery following the season. The latter tore an Achilles tendon in Week 15 and remains in the rehab phase. As of June 2, Shepard told CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson he is running again but has no timetable for his full-fledged return.

The 2022 Giants are expected to emphasize Toney in the offensive plans under new head coach Brian Daboll, the former play-caller for the Buffalo Bills. Shepard actually could find himself in position to lose his job by way of an injury, especially if the second-year receiver stands out in training camp. In Year 7, despite this being a new system, Shepard’s mental reps will likely be enough to get a grasp on the offense, but rust could be a serious concern well into the regular season.

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Most players are physically healthy from an Achilles tear nine months post-surgery and mentally trusting the repair by a year. Nine months would put Shepard back into action within the first few weeks of the season, but he may not be himself until closer to the final month of it.

Toney’s current recovery is more straightforward. He had a knee scope, presumably to clean up loose bodies, and the recovery time is usually in the weeks and not months timeline.

Durability is a major factor to weigh when considering him in 2022 fantasy drafts. In addition to the final two weeks he missed, Toney sat out four games in his rookie season with a quad strain. Toney also didn’t go in Week 7 because of an ankle injury, and he missed three contests with a moderately strained oblique muscle. To compound the litany of injuries, the former Florida Gator was absent for most of training camp and the preseason with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. In a sense, this will be his rookie season in part.

Fantasy football outlook

Shepard broke through as a rookie and scored eight times on 65 receptions in 2016. He has 13 touchdowns over 284 grabs since, and his career high in yardage is just 876. In other words, he’s a role player and not the game-changing weapon that Toney offers.

Quarterback Daniel Jones‘ on-field maturation is the driving force behind all things New York passing success, and if any coach can coax it out of him, Daboll figures to be the man for the job.

Currently, gamers are opting for Toney with an early selection in Round 11, on average, as the 52nd receiver drafted. That placement presents an opportunity for profit, but it’s obviously not without risk given the exhausting list of 2021 injuries he suffered. It becomes even more uncertain after New York’s second-round investment in slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. Toney can man the outside better, though, and the rookie should be considered more of an insurance selection by the club and a flier for fantasy purposes.

The team’s No. 1 receiver, Kenny Golladay, has injury issues of his own, and another lengthy absence could thrust Toney into the top role, giving him even more upside.

Shepard’s ADP is Pick 14:10 in PPR, and he’s WR70, on average. At this stage of his lackluster career, coupling Toney’s likely ascension with Shepard’s rehab situation, the veteran is no more than a late-round depth.

So long as Toney’s recovery goes as planned with a return for training camp, he’s the guy to own between these two.

Fantasy football injury outlook: RB James White, New England Patriots

Will James White rebound after missing nearly the entire 2021 season?

For most of his eight seasons in the NFL, New England Patriots running back James White’s primary role was as a reliable checkdown option for current Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady. His best years came during Brady’s final two seasons in New England, when the receiving corps was thinned by poor drafting, with White averaging 1,042 total yards and nine touchdowns in 2018-19 while hauling in a combined 159 passes. In his lone full season without Brady, White totaled 496 yards and three touchdowns.

White seemed like he could be in line for a renaissance last year with then-rookie Mac Jones under center and leading a very conservative offensive approach. Those hopes came crashing down when the University of Wisconsin product suffered a hip subluxation in Week 3 that ultimately led to surgery and kept the veteran from returning to action in 2021. He finished the year with just 132 yards and a score.

At 30, White is on the older side of the ledger for NFL running backs. Of course, it’s not always the years, it’s the miles, and White has more career receptions (381) than carries (319), meaning he hasn’t taken the type of physical pounding many backs have endured after eight seasons. Reports out of minicamp have classified White as a limited participant with the veteran stating that he has “a little while to go” before he’s sufficiently rehabbed and ready to roll.

White’s durability has been good across his career, but he’s coming off a major injury that he feared might have been career-ending, so he’ll need to be monitored come late July. Along those same lines, don’t read too much into the two-year, $5 million contract he signed to return to New England. Only $500,000 is guaranteed, and he’ll need to compete with rookies Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, as well as J.J. Taylor, for spots behind roster locks Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson.

Fantasy football outlook

White is a Bill Belichick guy, so if he looks like his old self chances are there will be a spot for him. In that scenario he’d be the designated passing-down back while Harris and Stevenson handle the early downs.

His sure hands and skills in the open field should make an attractive option for Jones on a team that has struggled for years to identify and cultivate talent at receiver. Even still, White would be a stretch as a draft-day target outside of deep PPR formats. Think of him as an RB5 or even a No. 6 and nothing more.

Fantasy football injury report: Super Bowl LVI

Latest status of fantasy football-relevant players who are on the mend entering the Super Bowl.

This is a team-by-team review of any key fantasy football player injury news after this week’s practice activity and team statements. Only those players listed on the team’s official injury report will be addressed, unless the situation warrants further attention.

PLEASE NOTE: The NFL releases their final official injury report late on Friday (after 5:00 p.m. ET). Teams on the West Coast often report their injuries late and may not be included in the initial publication.

Super Bowl LVI fantasy football injury report

This week’s key game-time decisions: TE C.J. Uzomah

CINCINNATI BENGALS
TE C.J. Uzomah (knee) did not practice all week and is questionable. He’ll be a game-time decision but insists he is playing. DE Trey Hendrickson (illness) fully practiced Thursday and Friday. He is no longer on the report.

LOS ANGELES RAMS
TE Tyler Higbee (knee) was put on the Reserve/Injured list Friday. WR Van Jefferson (knee), RB Cam Akers (shoulder), CB Jalen Ramsey (shoulder) and LT Andrew Whitworth (quadriceps) fully practiced Friday and are not on the injury report.

Fantasy football injury report: Conference Championships

Latest status of fantasy football-relevant players who are on the mend entering the Conference Championships.

Conference Championships fantasy football injury report

This week’s key game-time decisions: RB Darrel Williams (toe), LT Trent Williams, RB Jeff Wilson Jr.

CINCINNATI BENGALS
QB Joe Burrow (knee) and WR Tee Higgins (thumb) fully practiced all week and avoided designations.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder) fully practiced all week and is not on the report. RB Darrel Williams (toe) went full-limited-limited Wednesday-Thursday-Friday and is questionable. WR Tyreek Hill (heel) and WR Mecole Hardman (hip) was a full participant all week and have no label. S Tyrann Mathieu (concussion) is questionable but fully practiced Thursday and Friday.

LOS ANGELES RAMS
LT Andrew Whitworth (knee) should return to the starting lineup after fully working the final two practice days. He has no designation, but his backup, OT Joe Noteboom (chest), is doubtful. S Taylor Rapp (concussion) is questionable after being limited all week. WR Van Jefferson (knee) was limited Thursday and Friday, earning himself a questionable designation.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
QB Jimmy Garoppolo (right thumb) and RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) fully practiced Thursday and Friday. LT Trent Williams (ankle) didn’t participate all week and is a game-time decision. RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (ankle) is questionable, too, and also will be a GTD after being no better than limited Friday.