2024 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because two to four wideouts and a tight end are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2023 and 2024 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year and the same values are applied to their 2024 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and the difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year.

This analysis is very close to that for the quarterbacks, but a few differences stem from relying on running backs as receivers on some teams, as that skews the pass distribution.

See Also: Quarterbacks | Running Backs

Best schedule swings

Drake London, Kyle Pitts (ATL) – This is all good news for a franchise that was among the worst in passing for the last couple of seasons. Refreshing with Kirk Cousins, a new pass-intensive scheme and now the most improved schedule from 2023 and it all is looking up for the Falcons.

Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen (CAR) – Bryce Young was the first player drafted in 2023, but he had little help in any direction for a franchise that owned a minimal amount of passing weapons, a one-year offensive scheme that flopped and a bad schedule. A new set of coaches, upgrades with Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, and a vastly upgraded schedule should all make a positive difference and get the Panthers’ passing offense on track.

DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze (CHI) – The Bears already have an embarrassment of riches with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. They drafted the top quarterback in the 2024 class and get a nice improvement in schedule. The only downside here is trying to feed all those options.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta (DET) – The Lions already had one of the best passing offenses and now enjoy a solid rise in outlook with the No. 3 best schedule for receivers. With the offense already dedicated to piling up the receptions for St. Brown and LaPorta, the schedule only serves to make them even more reliable.

Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku (CLE) – The Browns offense needed a break and 2024 should allow the receivers to meet their potential with Deshaun Watson healthy and well-versed in the offense and the schedule finally well above average.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride (ARI) – The rookie Harrison and McBride already look like locks for a high volume of targets and they get a healthy Kyler Murray back. Throw in one of the top schedules after only average in 2023, and the needle is pointing up for the Arizona receivers this year.

About the same schedule strength

The bad news is that the Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins, and Broncos all repeat their ultra-tough schedule strengths from 2023. Can they remain better than their schedule?

Worst schedule swings

Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) – The Giants were already challenged with yet another shaky year of Daniel Jones and now the schedule is working against them. It is enough to drop Nabers another tick and hope he can survive a tough rookie campaign.

Quentin Johnson, Joshua Palmer (LAC) – The Chargers already swapped out coaches and dedicate their offense to running the ball more. And they stripped out all veteran talent from the wideouts. And they rely on what appears to be one of the weakest receiver units in the NFL. And now their receivers get to go against the worst schedule. Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback, but everything with the 2023 Chargers screams that a down year is about to happen.

Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce (KC) – This is less worrisome with an upgraded set of receivers and Patrick Mahomes playing in the same pass-happy scheme. If any team can weather a bad schedule swing, it is the Chiefs.

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (TB) – The Buccaneers take a dive down from their previous No. 5 schedule strength for receivers but their scheme has a huge portion of the targets funnel through Evans and Godwin. They may not equal last year, but shouldn’t fall far thanks to volume alone.

Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp (LAR) – Nacua blew up with a historic rookie season and Kupp is always dangerous weapon when healthy. This slide doesn’t help but the duo is one of the best in the league. They should still deliver even with the increased competition.

2022 Schedule Swings: Quarterbacks

Which quarterback gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The same quarterback playing in the same offense with mostly the same players should produce the same results from last year, right? Of course not. The difference is that even if almost nothing changes on a team, they never face the same schedule from year to year. So a part of the valuation of a fantasy player should be if his schedule is easier or more challenging than the previous season.

The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2021 and 2022. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2022. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say that the schedule isn’t really reliably different for the player.

What is relative is when a player has a significant shift in the quality of defenses that he will face. Davis Mills leaves the No. 32 ranked schedule last year and faces the No. 7 for 2022 – that should be a notable positive for his second year. Conversely, Lamar Jackson went against the No. 8 schedule in 2021 but drops to only No. 26 – that won’t help his passing game that already lost Marquise Brown.

Best schedule swings

Davis Mills (HOU) – Mills’ final four games as a rookie resulted in eight touchdowns, and he totaled four 300-yard games on a bad team that faced the worst schedule in the NFL for 2021. This year, he enjoys the biggest positive swing in the NFL shooting up to the No. 7 best schedule strength. The Texans have been one of the most dysfunctional franchises these past few years, but at least the schedule turns around for them and Mills’ second season contains more promise than may seem at first glance.

Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder (ATL) – The quarterback situation isn’t certain this year, and that brings plenty of risk for a franchise that’s moved on from all the best players of recent years. Last year ended poorly for the passing effort but did face one of the worst schedules along with losing Calvin Ridley. The improved schedule will help whichever quarterback starts, but neither were there last year, so there’s no real comparison.

Matt Ryan (IND) -Although Ryan wasn’t with the Colts last year, recall his down year in Atlanta went against one of the worst schedules and now restarts his career versus the No. 6 schedule for quarterbacks. The receivers are iffy outside of Michael Pittman, and the Colts make swapping out aging quarterbacks an annual event, but at least Ryan has an easier slate of games to get his career back on track.

Carson Wentz (WAS) – Following the theme of older quarterbacks leaving town after a down year versus a bad schedule, Wentz moves to Washington where he too trades up from a No. 29 schedule to the No. 2 best for 2021. He’s no better than an average fantasy backup, but at least he gets a more generous schedule if you have to use him for more than a bye week cover.

Jared Goff (DET) – The ex-Rams quarterback likely still feels the sting from getting dumped on the lowly Lions offense while his old team just won the Super Bowl. But he was given a few new weapons for 2022 and starts a second season with the offense. Throw in a schedule that went from No. 27 up to No. 9 and he’s another fantasy backup that should see an increase in production.

Worst schedule swings

Derek Carr (LV) – This is a bothersome development, given that Carr usually flirts with the Top-12 in recent seasons and just upgraded with Davante Adams. But that nightmare 2021 season went against the No. 9 schedule, and now the Raiders are pitted against the No. 30 quarterback schedule. That isn’t to say that Adams cannot continue to be a pass-sponge, but overall, Carr has to contend with much better secondaries for this year.

Lamar Jackson (BAL) – The reality is that Jackson is a premier running quarterback, so his matchups typically fare differently than do other quarterbacks when they face a particular defense. But it is troubling that his stats were down across the board even before ending his season early in Week 14. He’s not only facing a much more daunting schedule than 2021, the Ravens did nothing to replace the departed Marquise Brown’s 91 catches and 1,008 yards.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – The better the quarterback, the less that the schedule matters. That could hold true for Rodgers who’s been a fantasy starter for his entire career. He doesn’t face a bad schedule so much as he enjoyed one of the easiest set of opponents last year and 2022 looks to be just average in schedule strength. Maybe not the ideal year to miss Davante Adams, but Rodgers plays bigger than his schedule anyway.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) – Like a few other elite quarterbacks, Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs only brought in a few moderately-talented replacements. The decline in schedule will have at least a minor impact and may only matter thanks to losing Hill. But Mahomes is yet another quarterback that is bigger than his schedule.

Kyler Murray (ARI) – He’s another elite quarterback who rates as a fantasy starter every year. He was banged up, as was his receivers last year, and ended on a down note. For 2022, Murray loses DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks of a year facing the No. 29 schedule for quarterbacks. Adding in Marquise Brown should lessen the impact and Murray is healthy again. But the schedule will have an impact, and likely most at the start of the season when Hopkins is out.

2022 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because there are two to four wideouts and a tight end that are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2021 and 2022 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and the same values are applied to their 2022 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year.

Best schedule swings

Kyle Pitts / Drake London (ATL) – Applying schedule strength to receivers is never straightforward, but at least in Atlanta their receivers are mostly just Pitts and the rookie London. The Falcons trade the worst schedule for receivers for 2021 for an advantageous No. 6. A shaky backfield means the passing game will be needed often, though the quarterback situation is less than optimal to start their rebuilding year.

Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson (WAS) – Streaking from the No. 28 up to the No. 1 schedule for receivers is bound to benefit McLaurin and even the rookie Dotson who is projected to be a starter. There’s a new quarterback in Washington, but Carson Wentz should be good enough to help the Commander’s receivers to find some advantage in the lightest cast of opponents.

D.J. Moore / Robby Anderson (CAR) – The Panthers passing game declined last year, especially for Anderson, but should see at least an incremental turnaround, no longer fighting one of the worst schedules for receivers. Sam Darnold is running out of chances to prove himself but should be able to connect better with Moore and Anderson for 2022.

Stefon Diggs / Dawson Knox BUF) – One of the elite passing offenses in the league hardly needs any extra advantages, but the Bills swing over to one of the lightest in the NFL and Josh Allen already has chemistry with Diggs, Knox and Gabriel Davis. The wideouts already ranked No. 1 in the NFL with 443 targets in 2021. Maybe this year, they’ll catch even more.

Worst schedule swings

Amari Cooper / Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) – The Browns ranked in the Bottom-3 for most receiving categories for wideouts last year and upgrading to an aging Amari Cooper may not be the boost they need. Facing the worst schedule for receivers after flopping against the No. 9 last year doesn’t bode well for an increase in receiver production.

Cooper Kupp / Allen Robinson (LAR) – There’s no mistaking that the Rams face a much tougher schedule this year, but Kupp was already churning out astronomic stats and Robinson is a clear upgrade for the No. 2 wideout. The Rams are likely to be challenged to run well, and Matt Stafford led them to a Super Bowl win last year as the No. 1 offense in wideout catches, yards, and touchdowns. This isn’t a feel-good addition to their outlook, but if any receivers can be better than their schedule, it is the Rams.

Justin Jefferson / Adam Thielen (MIN) – Similar to the Rams, the Vikes enjoyed one of the lightest schedules for receivers in 2021, and now face the No. 25 toughest slate of games for the position. And as with the Rams, the Vikings receivers – principally Jefferson – are elite and should be better than their opponents.

Diontae Johnson / Chase Claypool (PIT) – This is a concern for the Steelers wideouts and tight ends. Their schedule was just average last year, and falls to only No. 31 while installing a new quarterback(s) for the first time since 2004. And the receivers were already ranked No. 31 last year with just 10.9 yards per catch by wide receivers. The ability to throw downfield will improve regardless of which non-Roethlisberger quarterback starts, but connecting with receivers could be tougher regardless.

2022 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the most accurate among fantasy positions thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2022 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is actually more interesting than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2022?

Both the Bears and Dolphins have a Top-5 schedule for running backs, but they had great schedules last year as well, so there’s no boost for their offenses.

Best schedule swings

Seattle Backfield – This is worth tracking through the offseason because whoever tops the depth chart gets to face an easy schedule, far better than the No. 31 they faced last year. Chris Carson’s neck injury is a major question mark, Rashaad Penny has been an injury waiting to happen aside from a handful of games last year, and they tabbed Kenneth Walker as the second running back drafted back in April. Losing Russell Wilson already has the Seahawks looking to do more with the run and a friendlier schedule should help accommodate that plan – whichever back can take advantage.

Devin Singletary/James Cook (BUF) – The Bills backfield only ranked No. 31 in carries last year, and their schedule (No. 19) was mostly average. They upgraded to the No. 1 running back schedule in total points for 2022 which should encourage more rushing, and the rookie James Cook was the third running back taken in the NFL draft. But so long as Josh Allen is the quarterback of the pass-happy scheme, the backfield won’t likely take full advantage of a schedule gift this year.

D’Andre Swift/Jamaal Williams (DET) – The fantasy community is higher on the oft-dinged Swift and the schedule makes that sentiment even stronger. Rocketing up from the No. 26 spot to the No. 2 will make a difference so long as Swift can stay healthy. The Lions’ offensive talent promises to be at least incrementally better this season and facing a lighter set of opponents will improve them even further.

J.K. Dobbins (BAL) – The Ravens backfield is another unit that is a committee with a lot more questions than answers. Dobbins and Gus Edwards return (probably) from injury. Mike Davis and the rookie Tyler Badie were added. The Ravens’ backfield struggled with injuries last year and ranked in the Bottom-5 for most running back categories. The schedule lightens up significantly but the roles of individually players remain murky.

Antonio Gibson/J.D. McKissic/Brian Robinson (WAS) – There’s a definite bump up in ease of schedule for the Commanders’ backfield, but the division of labor appears to be even greater this season. McKissic returns for the third-down role, Gibson was good last year but not as great as hoped, and they added the bull Robinson who could figure in for short-yardage and goal-line work. Gibson could lose at least minor touches, but at least he’ll have an easier schedule for an advantage.

Worst schedule swings

Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon (GB) – The Packers backfield ranked slightly above average in most fantasy metrics last year but even that may be hard to replicate in a season where they drop from the No. 2 to the No. 25 schedule for running backs. The backfield already split touches between Jones (223) and Dillon (224) last season and now they’ll face tougher defenses. Jones is less likely to be impacted as the primary receiver in the backfield.

Najee Harris (PIT) – The shift to a non-Roethlisberger offense already casts uncertainty on the offense and Harris already was one of the elite backs as a rookie, so he’ll be challenged to repeat his great 2021. Falling from No. 4 to No. 27 in schedule strength will have an impact, but his role as a rusher and how often he’ll be used as a receiver with Mitchell Trubisky under center remains unknown.

Cam Akers (LAR) – Tearing his Achilles erased his 2021 season other than returning very late and doing very little. Now Akers will be a year removed from the same injury that ended most players’ careers and he has to face a decline from the No. 3 schedule of last year to only No. 24. The Rams’ backfield was only average in rushing for 2021 and in the Bottom-3 in all receiving categories for running backs. Akers has an uphill battle to meet the expectations that he spawned last year before his injury.

Josh Jacobs (LV) – After two seasons of mostly RB1-level production, Jacobs’ outlook isn’t as shiny as it once was. He’s due to be a free agent in 2023 and isn’t expected to be a great fit for the new Patriots-style offense that new head coach Josh McDaniels is installing. The backfield is already a bit murky with Kenyan Drake returning from a broken ankle, ex-Patriot Brandon Bolden signing, and drafting Georgia’s Zamir White who some speculate could replace Jacobs this year. The Raiders faced the No. 20 schedule for running backs in 2021 and now are pitted against the No. 32 slate of opponents for this season. It all casts shadows that may never turn bright.

2021 Schedule Swings: Receiving

Comparing schedule strength for fantasy football receivers – 2020 vs. 2021

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2020.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Will he face an easier or tougher schedule? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Since this compares all tight end and wide receiver production each week, there are a lot of points at play and how they are distributed within an offense has obvious variation. The schedule strength has the least accuracy with receivers, so consider this as a minor tool in valuing wideouts and tight ends.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Passing
Schedule Strength Swing – Rushing

Best Swings

Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith (NE) – The Patriots’ first season without Tom Brady went against the worst schedule strength in the NFL last year, so rising to the No. 10 should yield significant improvement. Now the only issue is an all-new set of receivers catching passes from either Cam Newton or the rookie Mac Jones.

Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims (NYJ) – The Jets are another team that suffered a horrible schedule strength in 2020 and now improve for this year. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson installs a new offensive scheme that will be a bigger success factor, and the receivers haven’t been upgraded either.

Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle (SF) – The 49ers’ passing game fell apart last year thanks to injuries to almost everyone. If they can stay healthy, the schedule becomes their friend in this complex passing game that may end up manned by a rookie quarterback.

Kenny Golladay, John Ross, Darius Slayton (NYG) – Daniel Jones looked significantly worse in his second season, but the No. 30 schedule hampered his mediocre set of receivers. The crew was upgraded this year and the slate of games clears up nicely for 2021.

DJ Moore, Robby Anderson (CAR) – Moore and Anderson were both productive last year even under a bad schedule. That won’t be an issue for 2021, but now they’ll rely on Sam Darnold trying to get a mulligan on his career.

Worst Swings

Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry (CLE) – The Browns draw no favors from the schedule with a serious decline from 2020. Throw in that they prefer to run the ball, and Beckham and Landry will be challenged to improve.

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (LAC) – Justin Herbert was the rookie of the year and his schedule helped a bit. Allen and Williams won’t have that benefit but they will have a year’s worth of experience with Herbert and the Chargers’ passing scheme doesn’t employ a lot of receivers in most plays.

A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Josh Reynolds (TEN) – Brown broke out in the second half of the 2020 season with impressive performances, though that was mostly facing the rest of the AFC South. This year, there are still meetings with the Texans and Jaguars, but the rest of the schedule is far less inviting.

2021 Schedule Swings: Rushing

Comparing schedule strength – 2020 vs. 2021

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Passing
Schedule Strength Swing – Receiving

Swing Points – The positive or negative point change in their schedule strength between last year and this year.

Best Swings

Cam Akers (LAR) – This is an exciting development for the second-year player. After starting slowly and then catching fire late in his rookie year, Akers is the clear-cut primary back for the Rams and trades the No. 30 schedule strength for the No. 8. Add in an upgrade at quarterback, and the needle points upward for the Ram’s backfield.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – While normally placing in the Top-5 of running backs each year, Elliott tumbled to No. 9 when the Cowboy’s offense went cold without Dak Prescott. That coincided with facing the No. 31 rushing schedule and Elliott turned in his worst season. Now Dak is back, and the schedule at least rises to only average.

Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams (DEN) – The biggest problem will be relying on either back unless an injury or coaching move produces more clarity for the Denver backfield. The problem is that the Broncos get the No. 1 rushing schedule for 2021, so both backs may look equally as good. This is a good spot to be if either is removed from the rotation for any reason.

Joe Mixon (CIN) – Mixon’s biggest issue has been staying healthy, and working behind an ineffective offensive line for four seasons has not helped that cause. At least the schedule is better, and the offense improved with Joe Burrow last year. The point shift suggests better production, but he’s still facing the No. 10 rushing schedule with durability and blocking questions.

Chris Carson (SEA) – He signed a three-year extension to remain the primary back for the Seahawks but had injury issues last year along with one of the toughest schedules. Carson has been a lock for 1,000 yards and eight to ten touchdowns when healthy, and the schedule becomes a friend for 2021. Rashaad Penny hasn’t been a factor for three years, and Carson takes the look of a solid RB2 addition to a fantasy team.

Worst Swings

Aaron Jones (GB) – The Packers let Jamaal Williams go and promoted A.J. Dillon, so fewer short-yardage rushing touchdowns may go to Jones. And worse yet, he enjoyed the No. 2 rushing schedule in 2020 and ended up as the No. 5 back. But, he incurs one of the most dramatic swings possible, swapping that No. 2 for a No. 31 this year thanks to facing defenses from the NFC West and AFC North. Throw in the Rodgers situation and he looks far riskier this season.

Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones (TB) – Their schedule was only average last year but drops to the worst in the league for rushing in 2021. That won’t make the normal drop in production from a Super Bowl season any easier to avoid. The duo are in a timeshare, and there may be even more hands in the pie with second-year Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard there.

Jonathan Taylor (IND) – While the Colts do have a significant rise in rushing schedule strength, they still face the No. 11-ranked slate of games. The No. 1 schedule helped the rookie Taylor end up as the No. 6 fantasy back. His fortunes are more sensitive to the effectiveness of Carson Wentz and the passing offense.

2021 Schedule Swings: Passing

How does the schedule compare to last year?

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Rushing
Schedule Strength Swing – Receiving

Swing Points – The positive or negative point change in their schedule strength between last year and this year.

Best Swings

Cam Newton, Mac Jones (NE) – As would often be the case, the team with the best positive swing has an unclear situation at quarterback and a complete makeover of the receiving corps. The Patriots ranked near the bottom in all passing categories in 2020, including dead last with only ten passing touchdowns. Newton did more damage as a runner which means nothing in this metric. If Mac Jones shows up at any point as the starter, he’ll get an advantage with the schedule compared to what Newton struggled against last year.

Daniel Jones (NYG) – Jones struggled last year against what became the worst passing schedule and it showed. After a promising start in 2019, he fell off the fantasy map with Saquon Barkley’s departure and a set of receivers that also incurred rampant injuries and underperformed. Now the G-Men have restocked the receivers, Barkley’s back, and the schedule at least becomes average in strength.

Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance (SF) – Like the Patriots, the 49ers welcome a dramatic positive shift in schedule strength from last year and also have an unclear quarterback situation. The 49ers were decimated by injuries in 2020 and not one of their starters lasted all 16 games. A healthy Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle going against the No. 4 fantasy schedule for quarterbacks should pay off well, if they make it clear who the starter will be and then stick with him.

Zach Wilson (NYJ) – The rookie Wilson lands in what has been a Siberia for quarterbacks, but at least the schedule is far kinder this year; there’s some optimism with a new offensive scheme along with a few minor upgrades to the receivers. It’s still a tall order to expect much from a rookie quarterback in this situation, but at least the schedule shouldn’t be the biggest challenge Wilson will have kicking off his NFL career.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – The offense changes with HC Arthur Smith importing his scheme from the Titans and there is some concern that Ryan may have peaked physically as a passer. But he’s gifted potentially the best tight end ever drafted and a schedule that improves markedly from 2020.

Worst Swings

Justin Herbert (LAC) – The rookie shattered all expectations when he finished as the No. 8 fantasy quarterback with 15 games played. He benefitted by going against what was the No. 2 fantasy schedule. He’s saddled with the worst swing from 2020 but the schedule is still only No. 23 and he’s shown remarkable progress in reading NFL defenses.

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – The Browns are already in a bad division for passing and already went against the No. 24 schedule last year when they ranked low in passes (29) and passing yardage (26). They end up with the worst schedule for passing in 2021 but they will run the ball more anyway. Baker has a few nice weapons, but the need is low and the schedule works against them even more this year.

Tom Brady (TB) – He moved to Tampa Bay at a fortuitous time, leaving the Pats No. 31-ranked pass schedule for the Buccaneers’ No. 8, along with a massive upgrade in pass targets. It’s always tougher the next year after winning a Super Bowl and the schedule is not working in his favor this year. But – he is Brady and still throws to a dizzying set of pass targets.

Jared Goff (DET) – The Rams fell out of love with their former first-round pick and shipped him off to the Lions in exchange for Matt Stafford. Goff wasn’t there last year but it is just as well since everything is new in Detroit anyway and the receiving corps have been completely made over (and, perhaps, not in a positive way). He’ll have to figure out the new offense using a downgraded set of receivers and battle a schedule that is also not working in his favor.

2020 Schedule Swings: Receiving

Comparing schedule strength for fantasy football receivers – 2020 vs. 2019

Below shows the point differential (Swing Pts) between their schedule strength last year, and what they will face this season. Also shown are the calculated schedule strength rankings from 2019 and what 2020 projects to be (1 is best, 32 is worst).

Receivers are the most sensitive to individual matchups. A good cover corner can silence any wideout and there are many other considerations that impact receiver production beyond team schedule strength. Only the most extreme swings are worth noting, and even then – this sort of analysis is always least accurate applied to individual receivers.

Best Swings

Allen Robinson/Anthony Miller (CHI) – The Bears already owned the No. 9 receiving schedule last year, so leaping to No. 1 isn’t as advantageous of a change as it might seem. Robinson is already secure as the No. 1 receiver but this great schedule could help Miller take the next step up from his very average production of 2019. There is a quarterback controversy (or at least should be) in Chicago, and that may help even further.

Courtland Sutton/Jerry Jeudy (DEN) – Drew Lock struggled to find his wideouts in the five games that he started as a rookie but they were out in patterns against the No. 32 receiving schedule. Lock is a bit more experienced and Sutton already impressed last year with his 1,000-yard season. The rookie Jeudy projects to be a difference-maker, but this great schedule may not be enough to make up for starting out in the NFL during the COVID-19 schedule.

Henry Ruggs/Tyrell Williams (LVR) – This is a case of a team that had one of the worst schedules for receiving in 2019, going to just average for this season. There’s plenty of other factors to contend with like a new stadium, a new rookie wideout, and the pandemic fallout impacting any changes more than usual. The Raiders do get a nice bump in schedule strength but it’s still slightly below average.

Terry McLaurin/Steve Sims (WAS) – Rising to the No. 3 receiving schedule from the No. 18 helps, but the jury is still out on quarterback Dwayne Haskins. Throw in all-new coaches, a new team mascot, and a scandal or two and this won’t be enough to counteract everything else that is going on in Washington.

T.Y. Hilton/Michael Pittman (IND) – This is worth noting. The Colts flopped badly in 2019 without Andrew Luck and the No. 22 receiving schedule did them no favors as well. But Philip Rivers is sure to upgrade the quarterback role and Hilton went for 1,270 yards in 2018. Facing the No. 6 receiving schedule with a veteran quarterback will help get Holton back over 1,000 yards. Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell will also benefit.

Davante Adams/Allen Lazard (GB) – The second best receiver for the Packers is a coin flip and didn’t amount to more than 35 catches for 477 yards last year. But Davante Adams recorded 83 catches in just 12 games and the Packers jump up from the No. 21 to the No. 7 receiving schedule this year. Adams is already money so the benefit just makes him an even safer pick as one of the first wideouts taken in any fantasy league draft.

Worst Swings

Mike Evans/Chris Godwin (TB) – Jameis Winston may have completed more interceptions than anyone else last year, but both Evans and Godwin turned in big years in the process. Now Tom Brady will be the pitcher which could impact the deep ball (added bonus, ball placement closer to the wideout than the cornerback). The schedule projects to be average which could cool down the passing game after the No. 1 easiest receiver schedule in 2019. But it is the same offense with two of the top wideouts in the game on either side.

Keenan Allen/Mike Williams (LAC) – This could be troubling. The Bolts receivers went against the No. 5 schedule but fall to the No. 29 in a year where either retread Tyrod Taylor or the rookie Justin Herbert (or both) will start. Both have fallen in fantasy drafts but maybe not far enough.

A.J. Brown/Corey Davis (TEN) – Ryan Tannehill sent Marcus Mariota to the bench last year and A.J. Brown blew up as a rookie. Falling to the No. 31 receiving schedule from the No. 11 won’t help. And the Titans only ranked No. 30 in the NFL with only 171 completions to their wideouts. Brown is safe enough to at least match his fine debut but the schedule and lack of passes will likely prevent any other receivers here from offering fantasy value.

Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley (ATL) – The Falcons had a big passing year in 2019 and Julio Jones turned in a career-best year as the No. 2 best fantasy wideout. That was facing the No. 2 receiving schedule and they drop to No. 16 for an average strength. Jones and Ridley already combined for 162 catches last year while missing a few games. They remain safe fantasy plays but no other receivers are likely to stand out.

DJ Chark/Dede Westbrook (JAC) – Chark had a break-out season when he gained 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns last year. Dede Westbrook ended with 66 catches for 660 yards. They tumble from the No. 7 to the No. 23 receiving schedule but Gardner Minshew will have NFL-experience for this season. The schedule is not a friend, but it shouldn’t be a major factor in their fantasy fortunes.

Michael Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (NO) – Falling from the No. 3 to the No. 14 receiving strength of schedule isn’t ideal, but Thomas caught 149 passes last year – 45 more than any other wideout. The schedule is still average at worst but the Saints return with nearly the exact same team intact in a year where any changes will be penalized. Emmanuel Sanders is the only question here but he’ll never have to worry with double coverage anyway.

2020 Schedule Swings: Rushing

Comparing schedule strength – 2020 vs. 2019

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time? As always, only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year.

Best Swings

Leonard Fournette (JAC) – He enters the final year of his rookie contract with a lot to prove. Fournette has been a Top-10 fantasy running back in years when he was (mostly) healthy. He enjoys the biggest swing of any back, rushing from the No. 26 to the No. 4 schedule. That should help him to gain a bigger payday in 2021. Assuming he is healthy.

Austin Ekeler (LAC) – This could be misleading. Ekeler had a great 2019 season when he ended as the No. 4 fantasy back and the Chargers faced the No. 30 rushing schedule. They improve to No. 18 which is favorable, but Ekeler only ran 132 times for 557 yards and the Chargers ranked No. 18 in rush yards as a backfield. Ekeler caught 92 passes for 993 yards for the source of most of his fantasy points. The Chargers faced the No. 2 easiest passing schedule and now slip down to No. 22 for 2020. That’s more relevant for Ekeler than the rushing schedule impact.

Saquon Barkley (NYG) – Like you needed another reason to draft Barkley. He comes off a down year thanks to injury but going against the No. 28 rushing schedule was no help as well. He’s healthy again and faces a kinder slate of games for this season.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – Elliott is another elite back that ended up as the No. 3 fantasy value despite facing the No. 25 rushing schedule. Going against the No. 6 rushing schedule should keep him in the Top-3.

D’Andre Swift/Kerryon Johnson (DET) – The Lions backfield has long fallen short of much fantasy value, and there’s extra uncertainty now with the promising but less prepared rookie challenging the one-time promising rookie who cannot stay healthy. There is a healthy shift towards a lighter rushing schedule, but only from facing one of the very worst last year to an average schedule for 2020.

Derrick Henry (TEN) – Henry signed the big post-rookie contract so hopefully he doesn’t succumb to “got mine” disease. He led the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards last year while facing the No. 22 rushing schedule and now is handed the No. 7 just to make things easier. And no back is more sensitive to a rushing strength of schedule than the guy who ran 386 times to only 28 receptions. That’s about 14 carries for each catch.

Worst Swings

Jonathan Taylor/Marlon Mack (IND) – The Colts backfield ranked Top-5 in rushing attempts (399) and rushing yards (1,832) last year going against the No. 2 best rushing schedule. That plummets to the No. 28 rushing schedule and once again, there is a less-prepared rookie vying for carries against last year’s primary back. Bet the rookie Taylor doesn’t match his 320 carries last year at Wisconsin. Or his 2,003 rushing yards.

Melvin Gordon (DEN) – The Broncos were about average with the run last year but they enjoyed the No. 5 rushing schedule as well. Gordon shows up from the Chargers to become the primary back over but he’ll face the No. 26 strength schedule in Denver. That’s oddly the exact same strength as he had last year in Los Angeles when he held out for games and then ran for only 3.8 yards per carry.

Devin Singletary (BUF) – While he enjoyed a 5.1-yard average as a rookie in Buffalo, Singletary drops from the No. 15 rushing schedule clean down to the No. 32. Plus the burly Zack Moss has been added to the backfield leaving the 5-7, 201 lb. Singletary to provide the finesse work that saw him with only 151 rushing attempts in 2019. He’ll add more as a receiver but his rushing totals are not likely to see an appreciable spike.

Josh Jacobs (LVR) – Yet another rookie that benefitted from one of the lightest rushing schedules last season, Jacob’s fine rookie campaign may be hard to just match playing in a new stadium against the No. 23 rushing schedule. He’s a capable back with a 4.8-yard average but the schedule won’t do him any favors this year.

David Johnson (HOU) – Sure, his lone good season was four years and a few choice injuries ago, but Johnson was traded to the Texans to become their primary back. It was a move that surprised everyone and he gets his second chance at a career going against the No. 22 rushing schedule. To his benefit, the offensive line in Houston has been much upgraded. To his detriment, he is the David Johnson that has flopped since 2016.

Alvin Kamara (NO) – This isn’t ideal. Kamara trades the No. 20 rushing schedule for the No. 31 but he played injured most of 2019 when he turned in his third straight 1,200-total-yard season with 81 receptions. His role as a receiver is plenty to keep him churning out the fantasy points.

2020 Schedule Swings: Passing

Comparing schedule strength – 2020 vs. 2019

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year.

Below are the point differential (Swing Pts) between their schedule strength last year and what they will face this season. Also shown are the calculated schedule strength rankings for 2019 and what 2020 projects to be (1 is best, 32 is worst).

Best Swings

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – This is interesting. Mayfield turned in a very encouraging rookie season but then mostly flopped in 2019. He faced the No. 31 passing schedule, which was at least a contributor (along with receiver injuries). Mayfield owns the best turnaround of a schedule and goes from the second-worst passing schedule to just inside the Top-10.

Mitchell Trubisky/Nick Foles (CHI) – The Bears are tricky this year. Does Trubisky start all year or does Foles step in at any point? Notable is that while they own the second-best swing, they were already had the No. 5 passing schedule last year and ranked No. 25 in passing yards (3,573). So clearly, a favorable schedule wasn’t enough to spark even average production. Maybe it’s Trubisky, maybe it’s the coaching. Whatever the problem is, it hasn’t been the schedule.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – The Packer’s future Hall-of-Famer was only the No. 12 fantasy quarterback. He ended with one of the worst seasons in his 15-year career. Facing the No. 27 passing schedule did not help, but the Packers under HC Matt LaFleur installed a run-heavy offense that reduced their passing production to only average levels. Rodgers gets a nice bump up to the No. 6 passing schedule strength, but ignoring wideouts in the NFL draft and yet grabbing a first-round quarterback doesn’t bode well for a turnaround in Green Bay.

Derek Carr (LVR) – Here’s a quarterback that ends up around No. 18 every year. Gruden, no Gruden – so far, it has not mattered. He has a positive swing to be sure, but that’s still just No. 30 to No. 21. Facing the Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers twice each year doesn’t help. Carr should be better with a lighter (relatively) schedule and even new receivers for 2020. But he’s still one of the last fantasy quarterbacks drafted for a good reason.

Dwayne Haskins (WAS) – While Haskins rises to the No. 5 schedule, nothing last year says that big things are a-brewing in Washington (at least not with a quarterback). The ~~Redskins~~ Washington Professional Football Team didn’t rank better than bottom-three in almost all passing categories when they faced the No. 22 passing schedule. Highly unlikely that Haskins merits a fantasy start in most if not all leagues.

Philip Rivers (IND) – While the Colts went with Jacoby Brissett last year after Andrew Luck refused to make that morning commute, they only passed for 3,314 yards. Despite owning the No. 11 passing schedule, no advantage was derived. Rivers shows up at a great time with the No. 2 passing schedule on tap and oddly enough enjoyed the same No. 2 with the Chargers in 2019. This is a bad year for moving around and learning new things, but facing the No. 2 passing schedule last year netted him the No. 13 rank among fantasy quarterbacks. With a less talented offensive line, as well.

Worst Swings

Tyrod Taylor (LAC) – He wasn’t there for the No. 2 passing schedule in 2019, but he will be under center against the No. 22 passing schedule this year. Not to mention he’ll be learning a new offense with new personnel, and oh yes, he’ll likely lose the starting job to Justin Herbert before the season is over.

Tom Brady (TB) – This isn’t as bad as it initially seems. While Brady missed out on going against the No. 1 easiest passing schedule last year for the Buccaneers, he still ends up with the No. 11 passing schedule and will play with the best set of receivers he’s had in many, many years if not ever.

Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – This is more concerning given that the Titans already ranked No. 31 in pass attempts (446) last year. Tannehill drops from the No. 7 down to the No. 29 passing schedule. And their rushing schedule improved (No. 22 to No.7) so they could end up with the No. 32 in pass attempts for 2020.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Ryan has been a Top-6 fantasy quarterback for the last two years but the hat trick should be a challenge to complete. The Falcons fall from the No. 8 passing schedule down to the No. 28. In their favor, they return all the same players and coaches and that counts bigger this season.

Drew Brees (NO) – This shouldn’t be much of a factor given that they still face the No.13 passing schedule with one of the best quarterbacks of all time. The Saints rushing schedule falls to No. 31 this year, so Brees will have plenty of reasons to air the ball out early and often.

Gardner Minshew (JAC) – This is another instance of a great schedule shifting backward to just an average one. Minshew already has to install a new offensive scheme under OC Jay Gruden but gets his easier matchups all in the first half the season. He could fade late when you need him most.