2022 Schedule Swings: Quarterbacks

Which quarterback gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The same quarterback playing in the same offense with mostly the same players should produce the same results from last year, right? Of course not. The difference is that even if almost nothing changes on a team, they never face the same schedule from year to year. So a part of the valuation of a fantasy player should be if his schedule is easier or more challenging than the previous season.

The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2021 and 2022. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2022. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say that the schedule isn’t really reliably different for the player.

What is relative is when a player has a significant shift in the quality of defenses that he will face. Davis Mills leaves the No. 32 ranked schedule last year and faces the No. 7 for 2022 – that should be a notable positive for his second year. Conversely, Lamar Jackson went against the No. 8 schedule in 2021 but drops to only No. 26 – that won’t help his passing game that already lost Marquise Brown.

Best schedule swings

Davis Mills (HOU) – Mills’ final four games as a rookie resulted in eight touchdowns, and he totaled four 300-yard games on a bad team that faced the worst schedule in the NFL for 2021. This year, he enjoys the biggest positive swing in the NFL shooting up to the No. 7 best schedule strength. The Texans have been one of the most dysfunctional franchises these past few years, but at least the schedule turns around for them and Mills’ second season contains more promise than may seem at first glance.

Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder (ATL) – The quarterback situation isn’t certain this year, and that brings plenty of risk for a franchise that’s moved on from all the best players of recent years. Last year ended poorly for the passing effort but did face one of the worst schedules along with losing Calvin Ridley. The improved schedule will help whichever quarterback starts, but neither were there last year, so there’s no real comparison.

Matt Ryan (IND) -Although Ryan wasn’t with the Colts last year, recall his down year in Atlanta went against one of the worst schedules and now restarts his career versus the No. 6 schedule for quarterbacks. The receivers are iffy outside of Michael Pittman, and the Colts make swapping out aging quarterbacks an annual event, but at least Ryan has an easier slate of games to get his career back on track.

Carson Wentz (WAS) – Following the theme of older quarterbacks leaving town after a down year versus a bad schedule, Wentz moves to Washington where he too trades up from a No. 29 schedule to the No. 2 best for 2021.  He’s no better than an average fantasy backup, but at least he gets a more generous schedule if you have to use him for more than a bye week cover.

Jared Goff (DET) – The ex-Rams quarterback likely still feels the sting from getting dumped on the lowly Lions offense while his old team just won the Super Bowl. But he was given a few new weapons for 2022 and starts a second season with the offense. Throw in a schedule that went from No. 27 up to No. 9 and he’s another fantasy backup that should see an increase in production.

Worst schedule swings

Derek Carr (LV) – This is a bothersome development, given that Carr usually flirts with the Top-12 in recent seasons and just upgraded with Davante Adams. But that nightmare 2021 season went against the No. 9 schedule, and now the Raiders are pitted against the No. 30 quarterback schedule. That isn’t to say that Adams cannot continue to be a pass-sponge, but overall, Carr has to contend with much better secondaries for this year.

Lamar Jackson (BAL) – The reality is that Jackson is a premier running quarterback, so his matchups typically fare differently than do other quarterbacks when they face a particular defense. But it is troubling that his stats were down across the board even before ending his season early in Week 14. He’s not only facing a much more daunting schedule than 2021, the Ravens did nothing to replace the departed Marquise Brown’s 91 catches and 1,008 yards.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – The better the quarterback, the less that the schedule matters. That could hold true for Rodgers who’s been a fantasy starter for his entire career. He doesn’t face a bad schedule so much as he enjoyed one of the easiest set of opponents last year and 2022 looks to be just average in schedule strength. Maybe not the ideal year to miss Davante Adams, but Rodgers plays bigger than his schedule anyway.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) – Like a few other elite quarterbacks, Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs only brought in a few moderately-talented replacements. The decline in schedule will have at least a minor impact and may only matter thanks to losing Hill. But Mahomes is yet another quarterback that is bigger than his schedule.

Kyler Murray (ARI) – He’s another elite quarterback who rates as a fantasy starter every year. He was banged up, as was his receivers last year, and ended on a down note. For 2022, Murray loses DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks of a year facing the No. 29 schedule for quarterbacks. Adding in Marquise Brown should lessen the impact and Murray is healthy again. But the schedule will have an impact, and likely most at the start of the season when Hopkins is out.

2022 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because there are two to four wideouts and a tight end that are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2021 and 2022 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and the same values are applied to their 2022 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year.

Best schedule swings

Kyle Pitts / Drake London (ATL) – Applying schedule strength to receivers is never straightforward, but at least in Atlanta their receivers are mostly just Pitts and the rookie London. The Falcons trade the worst schedule for receivers for 2021 for an advantageous No. 6. A shaky backfield means the passing game will be needed often, though the quarterback situation is less than optimal to start their rebuilding year.

Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson (WAS) – Streaking from the No. 28 up to the No. 1 schedule for receivers is bound to benefit McLaurin and even the rookie Dotson who is projected to be a starter. There’s a new quarterback in Washington, but Carson Wentz should be good enough to help the Commander’s receivers to find some advantage in the lightest cast of opponents.

D.J. Moore / Robby Anderson (CAR) – The Panthers passing game declined last year, especially for Anderson, but should see at least an incremental turnaround, no longer fighting one of the worst schedules for receivers. Sam Darnold is running out of chances to prove himself but should be able to connect better with Moore and Anderson for 2022.

Stefon Diggs / Dawson Knox BUF) – One of the elite passing offenses in the league hardly needs any extra advantages, but the Bills swing over to one of the lightest in the NFL and Josh Allen already has chemistry with Diggs, Knox and Gabriel Davis. The wideouts already ranked No. 1 in the NFL with 443 targets in 2021. Maybe this year, they’ll catch even more.

Worst schedule swings

Amari Cooper / Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) – The Browns ranked in the Bottom-3 for most receiving categories for wideouts last year and upgrading to an aging Amari Cooper may not be the boost they need. Facing the worst schedule for receivers after flopping against the No. 9 last year doesn’t bode well for an increase in receiver production.

Cooper Kupp / Allen Robinson (LAR) – There’s no mistaking that the Rams face a much tougher schedule this year, but Kupp was already churning out astronomic stats and Robinson is a clear upgrade for the No. 2 wideout. The Rams are likely to be challenged to run well, and Matt Stafford led them to a Super Bowl win last year as the No. 1 offense in wideout catches, yards, and touchdowns. This isn’t a feel-good addition to their outlook, but if any receivers can be better than their schedule, it is the Rams.

Justin Jefferson / Adam Thielen (MIN) – Similar to the Rams, the Vikes enjoyed one of the lightest schedules for receivers in 2021, and now face the No. 25 toughest slate of games for the position. And as with the Rams, the Vikings receivers – principally Jefferson – are elite and should be better than their opponents.

Diontae Johnson / Chase Claypool (PIT) – This is a concern for the Steelers wideouts and tight ends. Their schedule was just average last year, and falls to only No. 31 while installing a new quarterback(s) for the first time since 2004. And the receivers were already ranked No. 31 last year with just 10.9 yards per catch by wide receivers. The ability to throw downfield will improve regardless of which non-Roethlisberger quarterback starts, but connecting with receivers could be tougher regardless.

2022 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the most accurate among fantasy positions thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2022 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is actually more interesting than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2022?

Both the Bears and Dolphins have a Top-5 schedule for running backs, but they had great schedules last year as well, so there’s no boost for their offenses.

Best schedule swings

Seattle Backfield – This is worth tracking through the offseason because whoever tops the depth chart gets to face an easy schedule, far better than the No. 31 they faced last year.  Chris Carson’s neck injury is a major question mark, Rashaad Penny has been an injury waiting to happen aside from a handful of games last year, and they tabbed Kenneth Walker as the second running back drafted back in April. Losing Russell Wilson already has the Seahawks looking to do more with the run and a friendlier schedule should help accommodate that plan – whichever back can take advantage.

Devin Singletary/James Cook (BUF) – The Bills backfield only ranked No. 31 in carries last year, and their schedule (No. 19) was mostly average. They upgraded to the No. 1 running back schedule in total points for 2022 which should encourage more rushing, and the rookie James Cook was the third running back taken in the NFL draft.  But so long as Josh Allen is the quarterback of the pass-happy scheme, the backfield won’t likely take full advantage of a schedule gift this year.

D’Andre Swift/Jamaal Williams (DET) – The fantasy community is higher on the oft-dinged Swift and the schedule makes that sentiment even stronger. Rocketing up from the No. 26 spot to the No. 2 will make a difference so long as Swift can stay healthy. The Lions’ offensive talent promises to be at least incrementally better this season and facing a lighter set of opponents will improve them even further.

J.K. Dobbins (BAL) – The Ravens backfield is another unit that is a committee with a lot more questions than answers. Dobbins and Gus Edwards return (probably) from injury. Mike Davis and the rookie Tyler Badie were added. The Ravens’ backfield struggled with injuries last year and ranked in the Bottom-5 for most running back categories. The schedule lightens up significantly but the roles of individually players remain murky.

Antonio Gibson/J.D. McKissic/Brian Robinson (WAS) – There’s a definite bump up in ease of schedule for the Commanders’ backfield, but the division of labor appears to be even greater this season. McKissic returns for the third-down role, Gibson was good last year but not as great as hoped, and they added the bull Robinson who could figure in for short-yardage and goal-line work.  Gibson could lose at least minor touches, but at least he’ll have an easier schedule for an advantage.

Worst schedule swings

Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon (GB) – The Packers backfield ranked slightly above average in most fantasy metrics last year but even that may be hard to replicate in a season where they drop from the No. 2 to the No. 25 schedule for running backs. The backfield already split touches between Jones (223) and Dillon (224) last season and now they’ll face tougher defenses. Jones is less likely to be impacted as the primary receiver in the backfield.

Najee Harris (PIT) – The shift to a non-Roethlisberger offense already casts uncertainty on the offense and Harris already was one of the elite backs as a rookie, so he’ll be challenged to repeat his great 2021. Falling from No. 4 to No. 27 in schedule strength will have an impact, but his role as a rusher and how often he’ll be used as a receiver with Mitchell Trubisky under center remains unknown.

Cam Akers (LAR) – Tearing his Achilles erased his 2021 season other than returning very late and doing very little. Now Akers will be a year removed from the same injury that ended most players’ careers and he has to face a decline from the No. 3 schedule of last year to only No. 24. The Rams’ backfield was only average in rushing for 2021 and in the Bottom-3 in all receiving categories for running backs. Akers has an uphill battle to meet the expectations that he spawned last year before his injury.

Josh Jacobs (LV) – After two seasons of mostly RB1-level production, Jacobs’ outlook isn’t as shiny as it once was. He’s due to be a free agent in 2023 and isn’t expected to be a great fit for the new Patriots-style offense that new head coach Josh McDaniels is installing. The backfield is already a bit murky with Kenyan Drake returning from a broken ankle, ex-Patriot Brandon Bolden signing, and drafting Georgia’s Zamir White who some speculate could replace Jacobs this year. The Raiders faced the No. 20 schedule for running backs in 2021 and now are pitted against the No. 32 slate of opponents for this season. It all casts shadows that may never turn bright.