Six bye teams makes settling on a safer floor a little more important this week.
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 13
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 5-7-0
All-time record: 24-38-3 (39.2%)
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
| Wk |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
| % |
55 |
74.7 |
41.7 |
20.8 |
150.3 |
66.5 |
16.1 |
25.5 |
88 |
121.4 |
138.8 |
80.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Grade |
E |
C |
F- |
F- |
A+ |
D |
F- |
F- |
B+ |
A+ |
A+ |
B- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
The one thing I most worried about last week when recommending Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew was the possibility of Jonathan Taylor defying the odds and stealing the show, which is what happened. Tampa Bay had been stout vs. running backs basically all year, but the star back ran for two touchdowns and Indy didn’t have to throw a ton. Fortunately, Minshew punched in one of his own, which saved my bacon since he failed to throw for a touchdown.
This week, we stick with the quarterback position in a week that features six teams on bye, and four of them tend to be worthy of fantasy attention. While I’m not entirely confident in this week’s choice, he makes for a valid boom-or-bust play with the fake playoffs are looming.
Even during Denver’s recent five-game winning streak, Wilson has not thrown for more than 259 yards in any outing, and he has topped out at 20.7 PPR points. A major reason for Denver’s success is the coaching staff has taken the ball out of his hands in an effort to limit his opportunities for making mistakes, which has paid off. Wilson hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6, and the Broncos have relied on the running game to help alleviate pressure. In Denver’s six wins this year, Wilson has thrown fewer than 30 passes in all but one outing, making efficiency paramount with respect to his fantasy output.
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During the recent winning streak, Wilson has averaged 18.9 fantasy points and would rank 15th in per-game results at the position (among QBs with at least four starts). He has outperformed Patrick Mahomes in that window. In this upcoming bye-heavy week, gamers lose Josh Allen and Joshua Dobbs from the 14 passers ranked ahead of Wilson. But frequent starters Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson are off this week to further diminish the pool. Translation: Our standards of what we constitute as a successful fantasy play should be lowered.
On Houston’s side of this matchup, the defense has allowed quarterbacks to average the 11th-most fantasy points per game on the year, but that number jumps to No. 7 in the last five weeks. QBs have rushed for a pair of scores in that span, and Wilson has one to his credit, too, but any ground-based success should be considered a bonus here. Removing the rushing TDs positions Houston as the ninth-weakest unit at defending signal callers in that period of play.
In terms of raw numbers, this level of success looks like 285 yards, a TD every 16.1 completions, and an interception every 42.3 attempts. The yardage sits fifth, whereas the scoring rate is a neutral 17th. Getting back to Wilson’s need for efficiency, the Texans have yielded the ninth-highest rate of fantasy points per play and the third-best yards per completion.
Furthermore, Houston has held RBs to the sixth-fewest rushing yards, on average, since Week 7, and this is a neutral matchup for getting into the end zone on the ground.
In closing, don’t feel strongly compelled to start Wilson if there’s a clearer option present. If the target is to start a solid player with a quality matchup outlook, ample weaponry, and a reasonably sturdy floor, Wilson is a low-end starting option.
My projection: 20-of-30 attempts, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 5 rushes, 23 yards (23.7 fantasy points)
