A possible suspension looms large over Kamara’s fantasy draft stock.
For more than a year, New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has been the subject of speculation as to whether his NFL career will be impacted by his participation in the alleged beating of a man at a Las Vegas nightclub on Pro Bowl weekend in February 2022. Kamara is charged with felony battery that carries a penalty of one to five years in Nevada state prison, if convicted with a trial set to start July 31.
The trial date coincides with the start of training camp. While veterans typically aren’t pushed hard in camp, being away from teammates while new quarterback Derek Carr is working his way into a new organization doesn’t help.
While the real-life implications in Kamara’s life are more important, from the fantasy football perspective, Kamara finds himself in a no man’s land of concerns over whether he will face penalties from the State of Nevada, the NFL, or both.
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For leagues that conduct drafts early, there will be a cloud hanging over Kamara, regardless of whether the court case goes forward. Even when players have been found not guilty in court, the league has imposed punishment of its own – typically a suspension of between two and six games. To date, the NFL has remained silent on the matter – reserving judgment on what (if any) punishment it will hand down until after the court case is finalized. Drafting as late as possible is ideal but not always feasible.
For their part, the Saints appear to be prepared for life without Kamara. The team signed 2022 scoring machine Jamaal Williams in free agency and used its third-round draft pick on Kendre Miller of TCU.
While Kamara remains the focus of the Saints offense, the uncertainty about his short-term future is likely going to be enough for his stock to fall significantly until his case is resolved. Even if there is a positive outcome, there will be concerns about any potential future infraction outside the game or if league protocol will result in a stiffer penalty.
Fantasy football outlook
Kamara is currently in limbo. There is no guarantee of anything at the moment. He could end up back in Saints camp exonerated, could be facing an NFL suspension, or end up in jail. That’s rarely part of a player’s fantasy draft profile.
Kamara was an extremely effective dual threat in the Drew Brees era, because he was used more as a receiver than strictly as a runner. Over the last two seasons, he has had the most rushing attempts per game of his career, but the fewest receptions and total yards per game. After scoring 21 touchdowns in 15 games in 2020 (Brees’ last season), he has tallied just 11 touchdowns over the past 28 games.
A player who should be a mid- to high-end RB2 in most rankings if not for the concerns, the questions on his future have him ranked at or near the bottom of the RB3 tier in ADP. He has more talent than that, but until his legal situation is definitively settled, it may be best to avoid him, unless he becomes available for next to no fantasy investment.
We’ll revisit the situation once more is known on the legal front.
