Tag: Player Props

Prince’s NFL Player Props: CeeDee Lamb will have his way with the Bucs

NFL Week 1 player prop bet picks.

No trends, no stats, nothing to guide us but the things we believe will carry over from last season.

My player prop picks are back for another NFL season, and I couldn’t feel better about how things will turn out after going 18-12 (9-9 playoffs) after a late start in 2021.

Unofficially, Prince’s Picks 2022 got started Thursday night with a 2-2 record in the opener between the Bills and Rams. Josh Allen and Gabe Davis came through for me, but Allen Robinson and Cam Akers left me feeling like one of their frustrated fantasy managers.

Officially, my slate is clean and we get started with these six picks.

Best bets for NFL season opener as Rams open title defense against Bills

The defending champs are home underdogs against Buffalo.

It’s not often a Super Bowl champion opens the next season as an underdog in the very first game. But it’s not often the champ is playing the team favored to win the next Super Bowl as the Buffalo Bills are in 2022.

That’s what the Los Angeles Rams are up against as they ready for the Bills on Thursday night. A 2.5-point spread isn’t exactly writing them off, but they have to come into the game fired up knowing people expect them to lose fresh off a championship.

Will it matter once the opening kickoff is in the air, though? Here are a few of my favorite bets for Thursday’s action.

Best MLB player props: It’s all or nothing with Bryce Harper

Six games, five dingers.

The Philadelphia Phillies open a three-game set at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday evening. It’s not the most interesting of matchups, with both teams hovering just below .500. But the opener does provide some betting interest with a few guys on opposite extremes of the hot-and-cold ladder.

Bryce Harper continues to add to another MVP-caliber season, hitting five of his 15 home runs this season in the last six games. That’s more home runs than the amount of hits Arizona’s David Peralta has in the same span.

Those two headline my top prop picks for Friday’s action.

Odds provided by Tipico

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Jayson Tatum’s scoring prop is a good bet for bounceback Game 4 of Heat-Celtics

Tatum usually has a big game after losses.

Jayson Tatum struggled big time in the Boston Celtics’ Game 3 loss to the Miami Heat, matching a postseason-low 10 points on just 3-of-14 shooting from the field. Had he simply played a game closer to his average of about 27 points, the Celtics would’ve had a great chance to come out on top in a game they lost by just six points.

Of course, Miami’s hellacious defense played a part in his performance. The Heat led by as much as 26, and despite allowing Boston to come all the way back within a point in the fourth quarter, they held Tatum to two points and zero field goals in the second half.

However, recent evidence suggests Tatum will bounce back in a big way in Game 4. He’s averaging 10 more points per game following losses than he does after wins this postseason. So assuming he has no lingering effects from a cervical nerve impingement, his prop to score more than 27.5 points on Tipico Sportsbook is a good bet.

Following Boston’s previous four losses, Tatum bounced back to score 29, 30, 46 and 27 for an average of 33 points. That’s up from 23.8 after wins this postseason, which includes their first-round sweep of the Nets where he averaged 29. If you subtract that series, he’s only averaging 21 after wins.

Miami’s defense isn’t going to just lay down and let him score 30, but that wasn’t the case in Games 1 and 2 either when he scored 29 and 27, respectively. And he might have scored more in Game 2 (after a loss in Game 1) had it not been such a blowout — he had 20 at the half. His other three games after losses were in the second round against the Milwaukee Bucks, who also had a strong defense. Yet, Tatum still found a way to drop 46 on them in Game 6.

Tatum is such a talented scorer that his output is usually dictated by whether he’s on or off more than it is the other team. So far in these playoffs, he’s simply been on after losses more. It’s been good for the Celtics, who haven’t dropped back-to-back games yet. And it should be good for bettors, who have a chance to capitalize.

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Jalen Brunson will cost the Mavericks this summer but he can make you money now

Brunson is averaging nearly 30 points through four games against Utah.

Jalen Brunson has been one of the NBA’s biggest breakout stars of the postseason, and his rise came just when the Dallas Mavericks needed it most.

The fourth-year guard out of Villanova was already established as an important piece in his team’s lineup, but with Luka Doncic out the first three games of their series against the Utah Jazz, he took his game up a notch. After averaging a career-best 16.3 points in the regular season, he’s averaging 29.8 through four playoff games. That includes 41 and 31 in Games 2 and 3, both wins for the Mavs.

These performances are going to earn him a huge payday as an unrestricted free agent this summer. NBA pro personnel scouts and executives polled for an ESPN story anticipate a floor of $20 million annually for Brunson, who played this season on a $1.8 million salary. But first he has at least two more playoff games to continue building his stock, and I think he will.

That means before he cashes in, bettors can. His scoring prop for Game 5 is 20.5 points on Tipico Sportsbook, and I’m looking for him to hit the over a fifth straight game.

If there’s an expectation that Doncic’s return will impact Brunson’s production, that didn’t pan out as dramatically in Game 4 as this line suggests it will in Game 5. Brunson’s shot attempts dropped from an average of about 24 through the first three games to 18 with Doncic in the lineup, but that number was still second on the team. He managed 23 points on those attempts in what was an off-shooting game – he made just seven field goals. Brunson hasn’t scored fewer points in any other game.

If he gets as many attempts in Game 5, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be more efficient after shooting 50% from the field and 37% from three during the regular season. He’s also averaging seven free throw attempts in the series. With those numbers, he would easily eclipse 20 points once again and maybe even add another 0 to his earning potential this summer.

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NBA Player Prop Bet Payday: Pat Bev will lock up Jamal Murray

Highlighting Friday’s best NBA player props with odds, analysis and picks.

Friday’s 10-game NBA menu has a lot of tasty betting options. Eastern Conference vs. Western Conference teams highlight the slate with the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder playing at the Milwaukee Bucks.

Here are some savory NBA player props to devour from Friday’s action:

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.

Pat Bev will lock up Jamal Murray

(Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing – USA TODAY Sports)

The Denver Nuggets head to La La Land to play the Los Angeles Clippers — who are favored -5.5 — in their second meeting of the season. One of the key matchups in Nuggets-Clippers is L.A’s Pat Beverley vs. Denver’s Jamal Murray, and Pat Bev owns Murray in their head-to-heads: 

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Murray has failed to score 20 points in each of his last two games and has scored over 20 points just once in his 11 career games against the Clippers. Also, in Beverley’s last five games, the opposing starting point guard hasn’t scored more than 18 points and is averaging just 12 points per game in those contests.  

BET JAMAL MURRAY UNDER 20.5 POINTS (-112).

Place a legal sports bet on these NBA prop bets or other games at BetMGM.

Ball will fill up the box score on Cavs

(Photo credit: Ken Blaze – USA TODAY Sports)

The New Orleans Pelicans are in the midst of a playoff hunt as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers, who’s season is all but over.

This bet is more about the terrible Cavaliers defense than it is PG Lonzo Ball himself. Don’t get me wrong, Ball is playing pretty good basketball lately. He’s tallied more than 25 points, rebounds and assists in four of his past six games. Also, Ball is having his best shooting month of the season, averaging 44% from the field and 38.5% from 3-point land. However, the Cavaliers are giving up the most fantasy points to point guards this season. Plus, over their past five games, opposing starting point guards are averaging 29.6 points, rebounds and assists.

Bet Lonzo Ball over 25.5 points, rebounds and assists (-139).

Betting Beasley in Orlando 

(Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove – USA TODAY Sports)

The Minnesota Timberwolves are getting 7.5 points at the Orlando Magic. Watch out for SG Malik Beasley in this game because he’s been ON FIRE since joining the Timberwolves Feb.19. Beasley is averaging 21.7 points per game on 45.5% FG shooting and 41.8% on 3-pointers. He’s also shooting a whopping 9.6 3’s per game since being traded to Minnesota, where he’s now a starter. So even if Beasley is having an off night he still might eclipse his projected points total just based on shooting volume. One additional point: the Magic’s starting shooting guard — Evan Fournier — has the worst defensive rating in their starting lineup.

Bet Malik Beasley over 17.5 points (-106).

Want some action on these NBA prop bets? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NBA Player Prop Bet Payday: ‘Stifle Tower’ will stop Ayton

Highlighting Monday’s best NBA player props with odds, analysis and picks.

Eight games tip-off Monday in the Association and the slate is lackluster with only two of the scheduled games featuring playoff teams. Good thing we can find some derivative bets to make this ho-hum NBA card more exciting. Here are some NBA player props you can fade or follow ahead of tonight’s action:

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.

JRich needs to step up versus Hawks 

(Photo credit: Adam Hunger – USA TODAY Sports)

Richardson is familiar with the Atlanta Hawks since he played with their Southeast Division rival, the Miami Heat, in his first four seasons in the NBA. He has scored 19 or more points in six of his 10 career starts against the Hawks.

Furthermore, it’ll be expected of Richardson to pick up the slack offensively since Ben Simmons is definitely out with injury and Tobias Harris is expected to miss the game against Atlanta. He should cash in on those opportunities because the Hawks surrender the seventh-most points per game to shooting guards in the NBA. This is the major reason I am not tripping about the 16.5-point price for Richardson against Atlanta. BetMGM oddsmakers know that he’s going to get more usage in this one and they are setting the line appropriately. Don’t be scared off by the price.

BET OVER Josh Richardson 16.5 points (-112)

Place a legal sports bet on these NBA prop bets or other games at BetMGM.

Nunn will Heat up against Cavs

(Photo credit: Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports)

Nunn scored 24 points in his last game, which was against these very Cavaliers, on February 22. Cleveland gives up the sixth-most points per game to point guards and three opposing starting point guards have scored 24 or more points against the Cavs in their last five games.

Also, Miami’s leading scorer, Jimmy Butler, is expected to be sidelined this game and it would be his 10th missed game of the season. In the previous nine games, Butler was out Nunn has scored 20+ in four of them and averages 18.2 points per game in those contests.

BET OVER Kendrick Nunn 17.5 points (-106)

Also see:

‘Stifle Tower’ will stop Ayton

(Photo credit: Russ Isabella – USA TODAY Sports)

This prop is more about who Deandre Ayton is going against than he himself. He has scored 25+ points in four of his last six overall games, but Ayton averages just 10.3 points per game in his three career starts against the Utah Jazz.

Rudy Gobert is the defending, back-to-back, Defensive Player of the Year and hasn’t missed a beat this season. The Stifel Tower is eighth in defensive rating, second in defensive win shares, second in defensive rebounds per game and fifth in blocks per game. He and the Jazz have allowed just 14.9 points per game to starting centers over their past 10 games.

BET UNDER Deandre Ayton 18.5 points (-112)

Want some action on these NBA prop bets? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NBA Player Prop Bet Payday: Trae Young will be cold against the Heat

Highlighting Thursday’s best NBA player props with odds, analysis and picks.

Now that the All-Star Game has been played, we are in the home stretch of the 2019-20 NBA season. Who’s tanking? Which teams are motivated by legitimate playoff aspirations? A dialed-in sports gambler may be able to answer these questions and find winners in BetMGM’s player specials.

Below are some NBA player props you should check out.

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 4:40 p.m. ET.

Trae will be cold against the Heat

(Photo credit: Dale Zanine – USA TODAY Sports)

Trae Young failed to score more than 30 points in the two games prior to the All-Star Break and hasn’t scored more than 24 points in his six career games against the Heat. Miami has the top-ranked opponent’s 3-point percentage and allows the third-fewest 3-pointers made by point guards in the NBA. Furthermore, the Heat surrender the second-fewest points per game to point guards. Lastly, the Hawks are the worst team in the NBA in 3-point percentage so it’ll be much easier for the Heat to focus on their one offensive bright spot in Young.

BET TRAE YOUNG UNDER 29.5 POINTS (-112)

Place a legal sports bet on these NBA prop bets or other games at BetMGM.

LeVert could light up Sixers 

(Photo credit: Wendell Cruz – USA TODAY Sports)

Caris LeVert’s rebounds, assists and points combined projection of 26.5 is too low. Granted I can make sense of it; Philadelphia allows the fewest fantasy points per game to shooting guards and has an elite defensive backcourt between NBA Defensive Player of the Year candidate Ben Simmons and Josh Richardson. 

But LeVert was playing really well before the All-Star break and he had 28 combined points, rebounds and assists in his last game against the Sixers Jan. 20. He averaged 33 combined rebounds, assists and points in his last five games. Keep in mind Kyrie Irving’s return to the lineup was pushed back this past week after suffering a setback in rehabbing an injured shoulder, so the Nets are going to need to rely on more production for LeVert.

BET levert over 26.5 (-118) combined points, rebounds and assists

Bridges will ball up the Bulls 

(Photo credit: Jeremy Brevard – USA TODAY Sports)

There is a lot of positive momentum for Miles Bridges as he won the 2020 NBA Rising Stars MVP award. Before the All-Star break, the second-year small forward out of Michigan State has broken out of whatever sophomore slump he may have had and is getting buckets. Bridges has averaged 20.3 points per game over his last seven contests. Plus, Bridges will have an easier time finishing around the basket since the Bulls will be without both starting frontcourt players in Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr.  Finally, I view juiced up vig on Bridges Over 14.5 (-125) as a positive because BetMGM knows Bridges is playing well lately and they’d like to scare bettors from cashing in on his recent performance.

BET Miles Bridges over 14.5 (-125) points

Want some action on these NBA prop bets? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NBA Player Prop Bet Payday: DeRozan motivated to ball in hometown LA  

Highlighting Monday’s best NBA player props with odds, analysis and picks.

The NBA’s post-Super Bowl Monday 10-game slate eases our disappointment of no more football. Aside from the games and totals themselves, bettors can find a ton of profitable NBA player props in tonight’s action.

Below are some NBA player props you should check out.

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last Monday updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

DeRozan motivated to ball in hometown LA  

(Photo credit: Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports)

DeMar DeRozan was born and raised in Los Angeles, so you know the recent passing of Kobe Bryant is on the front of his mind when his San Antonio Spurs visit the Clippers. BetMGM’s 24.5 point projection of DeRozan is puzzling because Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are listed as active but I think it’s explained with the motivational factor. DeRozan has played well recently, averaging 32.7 points per game over his last three and has really impressed in recent visits to Los Angeles. He has scored 25+ points in every game at Staples Center since joining the San Antonio Spurs. Plus DeRozan has performed better than his averages against Leonard in their 13 head-to-head meetings:

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As you see, his per-game total of 21.3 on .500 field-goal percentage is better than his career average of 20 points per game on .457 FG%. Let’s lean into BetMGM’s bloated projection and BET DeROZAN OVER 24.5 (-112).

Place a legal sports bet on these NBA prop bets or other games at BetMGM.

Beal will get buckets versus Warriors 

( Photo credit: Jeremy Brevard – USA TODAY Sports)

Bradley Beal should be motivated by his All-Star snub and continue his current hot streak in Washington when his Wizards host the Golden State Warriors. He’s has scored 34+ points in each of his last six games and has 16 games above 31 points. Also, the Warriors give up the second-most points per game to shooting guards in the NBA (behind the Wizards, actually). This helps our case for Beal’s Over because both backcourts are primed to go back and forth tonight.

Also, I love the idea of getting reduced vig to BET BEAL OVER 30.5 (-106) points scored.

Simmons’ Super Bowl Hangover in Miami  

(Photo credit: Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports)

Check out social media and/or the U.S. tabloids and you’ll see Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons hanging with beau Kendall Jenner at last night’s Super Bowl LIV. Can he get up the next day against a quality defensive opponent in Miami? There’s a chance the Miami nightlife could slow him down as much as the Heat themselves.

Miami allows the second-fewest points per game and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to point guards. Also, in Simmons’ career in Miami, he’s never scored more than his BetMGM projected total of 17.5 and has only eclipsed that total in three of 10 overall games against Miami. Furthermore, an opposing starting point guard hasn’t scored more than 16 in any of the last 10 games against the Heat.

BET UNDER SIMMONS 17.5 (-134). 

Want some action on these NBA prop bets? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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2020 Super Bowl: How many TDs will be scored in the game?

Analyzing the 2020 Super Bowl prop bets, and looking at the betting odds and lines around the total touchdowns scored.

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The 2020 Super Bowl is here, as the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are putting the final touches on their game plans for Super Bowl LIV. It’s expected to be a competitive and close game with the Chiefs entering as 1.5-point favorites.

It should also be a fairly high-scoring game, pitting two of the top-five offenses in the NFL against each other. At the very least, it should be much higher scoring than Super Bowl LIII between the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots, which closed at 13-3 despite having an Over/Under of more than 57 points at most sportsbooks.

The Over/Under for Sunday’s game is set at 54.5 points, which implies an expected score of about 28-26. With Patrick Mahomes on one side and the league’s second-best rushing attack on the other, there should be touchdowns scored in bunches.

2020 Super Bowl Prop Bets: Total TDs Scored

But how many touchdowns will actually be scored? Let’s look at the odds and betting lines.

Over 5.5: -154
Under 5.5: +125

Over 6.5: +110
Under 6.5: -134

Over 7.5: +240
Under 7.5: -304

In the divisional round against the Texans, the Chiefs scored seven touchdowns themselves; Houston scored three. In the AFC Championship Game against Tennessee, they scored five touchdowns and there were eight total scored in the game.

Special NJ/WV betting line for the big game

If you’re in New Jersey or West Virginia, Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Place bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

The 49ers offense hasn’t been quite as explosive this postseason, but they’ve still scored plenty of points. In the divisional round against the Vikings, they scored three touchdowns and Minnesota only scored one. The next week, they scored four touchdowns and the Packers found the end zone three times.

In the regular season, the 49ers averaged 3.5 touchdowns per game and their opponents averaged 2.3. The Chiefs scored 3.2 touchdowns per game and their opponents 2.3 per game. So, if together they averaged 6.7 touchdowns per game this season, betting the Over of 6.5 would seem like the best choice.

And looking at the different lines, that feels like the best combination of value and probability. You could play it safer by going over 5.5, but then you lose the value that comes with plus-money.

You figure Mahomes is going to score at least three touchdowns, and Damien Williams could chip in another for the Chiefs. On the 49ers’ side, their defense could score a touchdown itself, having done so five times in the regular season. Their ground game may not be as dynamic as the Chiefs’ passing attack, but Raheem Mostert is a big-play back, as is George Kittle at tight end.

I’d bet Over 6.5 (+110) and feel good about getting plus-money.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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