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The 2020 Super Bowl is here, as the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are putting the final touches on their game plans for Super Bowl LIV. It’s expected to be a competitive and close game with the Chiefs entering as 1.5-point favorites.
It should also be a fairly high-scoring game, pitting two of the top-five offenses in the NFL against each other. At the very least, it should be much higher scoring than Super Bowl LIII between the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots, which closed at 13-3 despite having an Over/Under of more than 57 points at most sportsbooks.
The Over/Under for Sunday’s game is set at 54.5 points, which implies an expected score of about 28-26. With Patrick Mahomes on one side and the league’s second-best rushing attack on the other, there should be touchdowns scored in bunches.
2020 Super Bowl Prop Bets: Total TDs Scored
But how many touchdowns will actually be scored? Let’s look at the odds and betting lines.
Over 5.5: -154
Under 5.5: +125
Over 6.5: +110
Under 6.5: -134
Over 7.5: +240
Under 7.5: -304
In the divisional round against the Texans, the Chiefs scored seven touchdowns themselves; Houston scored three. In the AFC Championship Game against Tennessee, they scored five touchdowns and there were eight total scored in the game.
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The 49ers offense hasn’t been quite as explosive this postseason, but they’ve still scored plenty of points. In the divisional round against the Vikings, they scored three touchdowns and Minnesota only scored one. The next week, they scored four touchdowns and the Packers found the end zone three times.
In the regular season, the 49ers averaged 3.5 touchdowns per game and their opponents averaged 2.3. The Chiefs scored 3.2 touchdowns per game and their opponents 2.3 per game. So, if together they averaged 6.7 touchdowns per game this season, betting the Over of 6.5 would seem like the best choice.
And looking at the different lines, that feels like the best combination of value and probability. You could play it safer by going over 5.5, but then you lose the value that comes with plus-money.
You figure Mahomes is going to score at least three touchdowns, and Damien Williams could chip in another for the Chiefs. On the 49ers’ side, their defense could score a touchdown itself, having done so five times in the regular season. Their ground game may not be as dynamic as the Chiefs’ passing attack, but Raheem Mostert is a big-play back, as is George Kittle at tight end.
I’d bet Over 6.5 (+110) and feel good about getting plus-money.
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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
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