Clark ‘Caps: 2021-22 NBA Award Predictions

Geoff Clark gives predictions and analysis for several 2021-22 NBA Award betting lines.

The 2021-22 NBA regular season starts Tuesday when the Milwaukee Bucks host the Brooklyn Nets and the Golden State Warriors meet the Los Angeles Lakers. Below, we look at the 2021-22 NBA Award lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Last year was a COVID-altered, 72-game truncated season in the NBA. The Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Phoenix Suns in the NBA Finals and Giannis Antetokounmpo brought home the NBA Finals MVP.

The major regular-season award winners include Nikola Jokic (Most Valuable Player), LaMelo Ball (Rookie of the Year), Jordan Clarkson (Sixth Man of the Year), Rudy Gobert (Defensive Player of the Year) and Tom Thibodeau (Coach of the Year).

2021-22 NBA Award Predictions

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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Most Valuable Player

The NBA MVP rarely comes out of nowhere so it would be foolhardy to bet someone with 20-to-1 or greater odds. Personally, I think Kevin Durant (+550) is the best player in the game and has the best case to win this year’s MVP. However, KD’s MVP payout isn’t fat enough to take a stab in my opinion, but here’s a couple of guys I’ll sprinkle on.

James Harden, Brooklyn Nets (+1500)

Harden’s production in Brooklyn was absurd. “The Beard” averaged 24.6 points per game (PPG) on 61.9% true shooting (.471/.366/.856) with 10.9 assists per game (APG) in 36 games.

His APG would’ve been second in the NBA had he played the minimum number of games and he ranked 10th in both PER and Win Shares per 48 minutes.

Harden won the 2017-18 MVP so it’s not a stretch to think he can do it again. He’s already proven he can carry a team to 50-plus wins and his workload has already increased before the season started.

Brooklyn sitting Kyrie Irving until he’s vaccinated means the ball will be in Harden’s hands more. If Kyrie is out for the foreseeable future and/or KD misses 10-plus regular-season games then Harden at 15-to-1 is a bargain.

Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (+2000)

People are sleeping on the Boston Celtics this year because of their disappointing 2020-21 season but I’m expecting a bounce-back performance from the Celtics. Boston hiring a new head coach but keeping its young core will help Tatum have the best year of his career.

Even though Boston struggled last year Tatum was fantastic. He averaged career-highs in PPG (26.4), rebounds per game (7.4), assists per game (4.3) and PER (21.3). If the Celtics are going to return to the Eastern Conference Finals then they need Tatum to take another step — and he can.

Few NBA teams were hit harder with COVID-19 complications last year than Boston. In fact, Tatum missed five games in the middle of January after testing positive for COVID. This year’s COVID situation should be easier for the Celtics to navigate and Boston can easily be the third-best team in the East.

Several things need to go right but Jayson Tatum (+2000) could be a nice bet slip in your portfolio at the end of the season.

Rookie of the Year

Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+240)

This is another award that tends to have a chalky outcome. Most of the previous Rookie of the Year winners were high draft picks that went on to be multiple-time All-Stars. While it isn’t a hot take to predict the No. 1 overall pick will be the real deal, betting Cunningham to win this award is the only way to go.

The last four Rookie of the Year award winners were all ball-dominant point guards. Where those players’ teams finished in the standings doesn’t matter as much as their usage.

The odds on favorite to win this award — Houston Rockets’ Jalen Green (+220) — already has a ball-dominant teammate in the starting 5. However, Detroit will hand the keys to its offense right over to Cunningham. He’s a 6-foot-8 guard with a high basketball IQ and the ability to shoot it from anywhere.

Typically I’m shopping for chunky payouts when betting futures but I still see value in Cade Cunningham (+240) to win Rookie of the Year.

Sixth Man of the Year

Patty Mills, Brooklyn Nets (+1300)

KD and Harden can’t score all the points. Plus the attention each player draws from opposing defenses will create a ton of open looks for teammates. One of the benefactors of said open shots should be first-year Nets guard Mills who has been a knockdown 3-point shooter for years.

Brooklyn head coach Steve Nash has Mike D’Antoni on his staff and D’Antoni is a point guard guru. Nash won back-to-back MVPs while playing for D’Antoni and Harden won his MVP in D’Antoni’s offense.

Mills has been a fringe contender for this award while playing for the San Antonio Spurs from 2011-21 but has a much better chance this season as part of a dynamic Brooklyn offense with title aspirations.

Defensive Player of the Year

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (+700)

There isn’t a lot that needs to be said to sell Antetokounmpo’s line to win Defensive Player of the Year. Giannis is the only player not named “Rudy Gobert” to win this award in the last four seasons.

Giannis can switch on defense to guard any player in NBA history and has the size, length, footwork and quickness to stay in front of ball-handlers or wrestle in the post with bigs.

Several NBA talking heads and writers have mentioned how locked-in Giannis appears to be on Milwaukee’s title defense. Generally, it’s assumed that a title team’s leading scorer will conserve energy on the defensive end of the floor, but in this case, I just don’t see that happening.

Coach of the Year

Monty Williams, Phoenix Suns (+1000)

Williams had a strong case for winning this award last season after Phoenix’s epic turnaround. The Suns went from 34-39 overall two years ago (10th-place in the West) to 51-21 overall last season (second-place in the West).

The reasons Williams didn’t win Coach of the Year were Thibodeau taking an even bigger dumpster fire in the New York Knicks to the playoffs and Suns first-year point guard Chris Paul stealing some of Williams’ shine.

However, there’s value in Williams this season because I think the NBA media tries to make up for not selecting Williams as Coach of the Year last season.

Phoenix’s roster from last year is fully intact and the West is a little weakened entering the season. The Golden State Warriors will be without Klay Thompson until at least Christmas and who knows when the Los Angeles Clippers will get Kawhi Leonard back.

If the Suns are a top-3 seed in the West again, head coach Monty Williams is in the driver’s seat to win Coach of the Year.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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NBA Player Prop Bet Payday: Pat Bev will lock up Jamal Murray

Highlighting Friday’s best NBA player props with odds, analysis and picks.

Friday’s 10-game NBA menu has a lot of tasty betting options. Eastern Conference vs. Western Conference teams highlight the slate with the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder playing at the Milwaukee Bucks.

Here are some savory NBA player props to devour from Friday’s action:

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.

Pat Bev will lock up Jamal Murray

(Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing – USA TODAY Sports)

The Denver Nuggets head to La La Land to play the Los Angeles Clippers — who are favored -5.5 — in their second meeting of the season. One of the key matchups in Nuggets-Clippers is L.A’s Pat Beverley vs. Denver’s Jamal Murray, and Pat Bev owns Murray in their head-to-heads:

[protected-iframe id=”091a477f8213f30443ffaad0b8bcd26d-159279292-75965725″ info=”https://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=bbr&url=%2Fplay-index%2Fh2h_finder.cgi%3Frequest%3D1%26player_id1_hint%3DJamal%2BMurray%26player_id1_select%3DJamal%2BMurray%26player_id1%3Dmurraja01%26player_id2_select%3DPatrick%2BBeverley%26player_id2%3Dbeverpa01%26idx%3Dplayers&div=div_stats” ]

Murray has failed to score 20 points in each of his last two games and has scored over 20 points just once in his 11 career games against the Clippers. Also, in Beverley’s last five games, the opposing starting point guard hasn’t scored more than 18 points and is averaging just 12 points per game in those contests.

BET JAMAL MURRAY UNDER 20.5 POINTS (-112).

Place a legal sports bet on these NBA prop bets or other games at BetMGM.

Ball will fill up the box score on Cavs

(Photo credit: Ken Blaze – USA TODAY Sports)

The New Orleans Pelicans are in the midst of a playoff hunt as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers, who’s season is all but over.

This bet is more about the terrible Cavaliers defense than it is PG Lonzo Ball himself. Don’t get me wrong, Ball is playing pretty good basketball lately. He’s tallied more than 25 points, rebounds and assists in four of his past six games. Also, Ball is having his best shooting month of the season, averaging 44% from the field and 38.5% from 3-point land. However, the Cavaliers are giving up the most fantasy points to point guards this season. Plus, over their past five games, opposing starting point guards are averaging 29.6 points, rebounds and assists.

Bet Lonzo Ball over 25.5 points, rebounds and assists (-139).

Betting Beasley in Orlando

(Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove – USA TODAY Sports)

The Minnesota Timberwolves are getting 7.5 points at the Orlando Magic. Watch out for SG Malik Beasley in this game because he’s been ON FIRE since joining the Timberwolves Feb.19. Beasley is averaging 21.7 points per game on 45.5% FG shooting and 41.8% on 3-pointers. He’s also shooting a whopping 9.6 3’s per game since being traded to Minnesota, where he’s now a starter. So even if Beasley is having an off night he still might eclipse his projected points total just based on shooting volume. One additional point: the Magic’s starting shooting guard — Evan Fournier — has the worst defensive rating in their starting lineup.

Bet Malik Beasley over 17.5 points (-106).

Want some action on these NBA prop bets? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NBA Player Prop Bet Payday: ‘Stifle Tower’ will stop Ayton

Highlighting Monday’s best NBA player props with odds, analysis and picks.

Eight games tip-off Monday in the Association and the slate is lackluster with only two of the scheduled games featuring playoff teams. Good thing we can find some derivative bets to make this ho-hum NBA card more exciting. Here are some NBA player props you can fade or follow ahead of tonight’s action:

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.

JRich needs to step up versus Hawks

(Photo credit: Adam Hunger – USA TODAY Sports)

Richardson is familiar with the Atlanta Hawks since he played with their Southeast Division rival, the Miami Heat, in his first four seasons in the NBA. He has scored 19 or more points in six of his 10 career starts against the Hawks.

Furthermore, it’ll be expected of Richardson to pick up the slack offensively since Ben Simmons is definitely out with injury and Tobias Harris is expected to miss the game against Atlanta. He should cash in on those opportunities because the Hawks surrender the seventh-most points per game to shooting guards in the NBA. This is the major reason I am not tripping about the 16.5-point price for Richardson against Atlanta. BetMGM oddsmakers know that he’s going to get more usage in this one and they are setting the line appropriately. Don’t be scared off by the price.

BET OVER Josh Richardson 16.5 points (-112)

Place a legal sports bet on these NBA prop bets or other games at BetMGM.

Nunn will Heat up against Cavs

(Photo credit: Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports)

Nunn scored 24 points in his last game, which was against these very Cavaliers, on February 22. Cleveland gives up the sixth-most points per game to point guards and three opposing starting point guards have scored 24 or more points against the Cavs in their last five games.

Also, Miami’s leading scorer, Jimmy Butler, is expected to be sidelined this game and it would be his 10th missed game of the season. In the previous nine games, Butler was out Nunn has scored 20+ in four of them and averages 18.2 points per game in those contests.

BET OVER Kendrick Nunn 17.5 points (-106)

Also see:

‘Stifle Tower’ will stop Ayton

(Photo credit: Russ Isabella – USA TODAY Sports)

This prop is more about who Deandre Ayton is going against than he himself. He has scored 25+ points in four of his last six overall games, but Ayton averages just 10.3 points per game in his three career starts against the Utah Jazz.

Rudy Gobert is the defending, back-to-back, Defensive Player of the Year and hasn’t missed a beat this season. The Stifel Tower is eighth in defensive rating, second in defensive win shares, second in defensive rebounds per game and fifth in blocks per game. He and the Jazz have allowed just 14.9 points per game to starting centers over their past 10 games.

BET UNDER Deandre Ayton 18.5 points (-112)

Want some action on these NBA prop bets? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NBA Player Prop Bet Payday: Trae Young will be cold against the Heat

Highlighting Thursday’s best NBA player props with odds, analysis and picks.

Now that the All-Star Game has been played, we are in the home stretch of the 2019-20 NBA season. Who’s tanking? Which teams are motivated by legitimate playoff aspirations? A dialed-in sports gambler may be able to answer these questions and find winners in BetMGM’s player specials.

Below are some NBA player props you should check out.

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 4:40 p.m. ET.

Trae will be cold against the Heat

(Photo credit: Dale Zanine – USA TODAY Sports)

Trae Young failed to score more than 30 points in the two games prior to the All-Star Break and hasn’t scored more than 24 points in his six career games against the Heat. Miami has the top-ranked opponent’s 3-point percentage and allows the third-fewest 3-pointers made by point guards in the NBA. Furthermore, the Heat surrender the second-fewest points per game to point guards. Lastly, the Hawks are the worst team in the NBA in 3-point percentage so it’ll be much easier for the Heat to focus on their one offensive bright spot in Young.

BET TRAE YOUNG UNDER 29.5 POINTS (-112)

Place a legal sports bet on these NBA prop bets or other games at BetMGM.

LeVert could light up Sixers

(Photo credit: Wendell Cruz – USA TODAY Sports)

Caris LeVert’s rebounds, assists and points combined projection of 26.5 is too low. Granted I can make sense of it; Philadelphia allows the fewest fantasy points per game to shooting guards and has an elite defensive backcourt between NBA Defensive Player of the Year candidate Ben Simmons and Josh Richardson.

But LeVert was playing really well before the All-Star break and he had 28 combined points, rebounds and assists in his last game against the Sixers Jan. 20. He averaged 33 combined rebounds, assists and points in his last five games. Keep in mind Kyrie Irving’s return to the lineup was pushed back this past week after suffering a setback in rehabbing an injured shoulder, so the Nets are going to need to rely on more production for LeVert.

BET levert over 26.5 (-118) combined points, rebounds and assists

Bridges will ball up the Bulls

(Photo credit: Jeremy Brevard – USA TODAY Sports)

There is a lot of positive momentum for Miles Bridges as he won the 2020 NBA Rising Stars MVP award. Before the All-Star break, the second-year small forward out of Michigan State has broken out of whatever sophomore slump he may have had and is getting buckets. Bridges has averaged 20.3 points per game over his last seven contests. Plus, Bridges will have an easier time finishing around the basket since the Bulls will be without both starting frontcourt players in Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. Finally, I view juiced up vig on Bridges Over 14.5 (-125) as a positive because BetMGM knows Bridges is playing well lately and they’d like to scare bettors from cashing in on his recent performance.

BET Miles Bridges over 14.5 (-125) points

Want some action on these NBA prop bets? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NBA Player Prop Bet Payday: DeRozan motivated to ball in hometown LA

Highlighting Monday’s best NBA player props with odds, analysis and picks.

The NBA’s post-Super Bowl Monday 10-game slate eases our disappointment of no more football. Aside from the games and totals themselves, bettors can find a ton of profitable NBA player props in tonight’s action.

Below are some NBA player props you should check out.

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last Monday updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

DeRozan motivated to ball in hometown LA

(Photo credit: Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports)

DeMar DeRozan was born and raised in Los Angeles, so you know the recent passing of Kobe Bryant is on the front of his mind when his San Antonio Spurs visit the Clippers. BetMGM’s 24.5 point projection of DeRozan is puzzling because Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are listed as active but I think it’s explained with the motivational factor. DeRozan has played well recently, averaging 32.7 points per game over his last three and has really impressed in recent visits to Los Angeles. He has scored 25+ points in every game at Staples Center since joining the San Antonio Spurs. Plus DeRozan has performed better than his averages against Leonard in their 13 head-to-head meetings:

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As you see, his per-game total of 21.3 on .500 field-goal percentage is better than his career average of 20 points per game on .457 FG%. Let’s lean into BetMGM’s bloated projection and BET DeROZAN OVER 24.5 (-112).

Place a legal sports bet on these NBA prop bets or other games at BetMGM.

Beal will get buckets versus Warriors

Bradley Beal should be motivated by his All-Star snub and continue his current hot streak in Washington when his Wizards host the Golden State Warriors. He’s has scored 34+ points in each of his last six games and has 16 games above 31 points. Also, the Warriors give up the second-most points per game to shooting guards in the NBA (behind the Wizards, actually). This helps our case for Beal’s Over because both backcourts are primed to go back and forth tonight.

Also, I love the idea of getting reduced vig to BET BEAL OVER 30.5 (-106) points scored.

Simmons’ Super Bowl Hangover in Miami

(Photo credit: Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports)

Check out social media and/or the U.S. tabloids and you’ll see Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons hanging with beau Kendall Jenner at last night’s Super Bowl LIV. Can he get up the next day against a quality defensive opponent in Miami? There’s a chance the Miami nightlife could slow him down as much as the Heat themselves.

Miami allows the second-fewest points per game and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to point guards. Also, in Simmons’ career in Miami, he’s never scored more than his BetMGM projected total of 17.5 and has only eclipsed that total in three of 10 overall games against Miami. Furthermore, an opposing starting point guard hasn’t scored more than 16 in any of the last 10 games against the Heat.

BET UNDER SIMMONS 17.5 (-134).

Want some action on these NBA prop bets? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NBA Player Prop Bet Payday: Jaren Jackson will maul the Pistons

Highlighting Friday’s best NBA player props with odds, analysis and picks.

If you’re dialed into the NBA regular season and do the homework, you can find some easy winners betting NBA player props. Lines are juiced up because BetMGM knows that the informed bettor has more of an advantage in these wagers compared to sides or totals.

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 4:40 p.m. ET.

Let’s build up our bankroll by betting these NBA player prop locks:

Jackson will maul the Pistons

(Photo credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA TODAY Sports)

The Grizzlies-Pistons should be a get right game for Jaren Jackson, who’s scored below his season average of 17.7 points per game in three of his last four games.

Jackson has only played the Pistons once in his early career; but, man, it was an impressive performance. He scored 26 points on 8-11 shooting from the field, hitting both threes attempted, and added 10 boards. Based on this season’s results, the matchup bodes well for Jackson who is shooting .406 from 3-point land this season and the Pistons are ranked 27th in opponent’s 3-point %. In addition, Detroit gives up the sixth most points in the paint per game and the fourth most points per game to power forwards.

BET JAREN JACKSON OVER 16.5 (-125).

Domantas vs. Draymond

(Photo credit: David Berding – USA TODAY Sports)

Going against one of the NBA’s best big-man defenders in Domantas Sabonis will not be a welcomed sight for Draymond Green, who’s been struggling since the new year. Sabonis is having a better defensive season than Green; his 105 defensive rating, defensive rebounding percentage and defensive win shares are all higher than Green’s.

This month Green is averaging just 4.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. Pretty solid for your run of the mill role-player, but given Green’s contract, championship hardware and personal accolades, those numbers are slightly disappointing. The Pacers, as a team, is giving up the sixth fewest fantasy points per game to power forwards. Opposing starting power forwards have scored just 8.8 PPG in the the last six games against Indiana.

BET DRAYMOND GREEN UNDER 18.5 (-125) points, rebounds and assists.

Place a legal sports bet on these NBA prop bets or other games at BetMGM.

Lonzo will drop dimes against Denver

(Photo credit: Brad Penner – USA TODAY Sports)

Now that Zion Williamson is finally starting for the Pelicans, Lonzo Ball has more options to pass the ball. Ball has had seven or more assists in nine of his last 10 games, is averaging 9.1 assists per game in January and averages 6.6 APG in his career against the Nuggets.

Also, the Nuggets allow the most APG to point guards in the NBA and have given 8.4 APG against starting point guards in their last five games. Expect Ball to really control the tempo against a Nuggets backcourt that could be without starters Jamal Murray and Gary Harris Jr.

BET OVER LONZO BALL 6.5 ASSISTS (-125).

Want some action on these NBA prop bets? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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