Once a top prospect in high school basketball, Michael Porter Jr. began to ascend to his former stature this season after his tumble from stardom in high school. Appearing in just three games for Missouri caused the once top-two recruit to slip to Denver at 14 in the 2018 NBA Draft, where he’d miss all of his rookie season nursing a back injury.
During the 2019-20 season, Porter finally made his NBA debut, appearing in 48 games across a total of 670 minutes before the regular season was shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic. Though he dealt with various minor injuries – missing 17 games in total – Porter remained healthy and on the court for the majority of the season for the first time since high school. And at times, Porter dazzled crowds in the same manner that he did back at Nathan Hale High School.
His per 100 possession numbers were solid, averaging 26.4 points. 14.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists while shooting 42.2% from 3-point range and 53.6% from two with a relative true shooting of plus-2.9. Porter was one of only 10 players this season to hit those benchmarks in points, rebounds and rTS.
Porter’s shotmaking at his size is in unicorn territory and fuels his star upside.
As a rookie, Porter shot 42.2% from 3-point range on 7.5 attempts per 100 possessions. Only five other players this season hit those benchmarks at 6-foot-10 or taller: Karl-Anthony Towns, Danilo Gallinari, Davis Bertans, Kelly Olynyk and Nemanja Bjelica.
More than just spot-up threes, Porter’s versatility as a jump-shot maker from all areas of the floor is an outlier skill. He placed in the 91st percentile on catch-and-shoot jumpers this season and was the sixth-most accurate pull-up 3-point shooter in the NBA (>20 attempts); he converted 48% on 25 attempts and flashed ability off of movement from deep.
Few players of Porter’s stature possess the difficult shotmaking ability he displayed in year one, nailing all matter of impossible stepbacks, fadeaways and sprinting jumpers:
Shotmaking aces at Porter’s size and degree of difficulty on high volume are basically nonexistent and the ones who do exist are the likes of Towns, Gallinari, Peja Stojakovic, Hedo Turkoglu, Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant, a list of some of the game’s greatest gunners and bonafide superstars.
There’s a chance Porter reaches superstar offensive status if this shotmaking improves and remains consistent as his volume increases, but shotmaking is about the only bankable above-average offensive skill Porter possesses. Most debilitating of his weaknesses at this stage are his decision making and general feel for the game.
Porter’s offensive profile is heavily reliant on a diet of these challenging jumpers, an approach that may not be sustainable as Porter’s career progresses. His light is greener than green on these shots, as Porter chucks ill-advised contested jumpers with too much regularity in favor of better offense.
At this stage, Porter’s lack of supreme burst and a relatively weak handle doesn’t open gateways to the rim offense, dropping his overall efficiency. Porter’s free-throw rate of 15.1% is abysmal for a player of his size and usage; there have been 33 seasons in NBA history of 6-foot-10 or taller players with a free-throw rate below 16% and a usage rate above 20 and the only All-Stars on the list are Nowitzki and Nikola Vucevic.
For his future scoring projection, his combination of a lack of penetration ability and shot selection issues are not positive signs:
Porter’s vision at this stage as a handler is lacking; while he doesn’t command defenders on drives because of his lack of burst and handling dexterity, his pure shotmaking gravity pulls defenders. Yet, he misses simple and complex reads alike regularly, posting a troubling 8:22 assist-to-usage rate.
Even if Porter is making passes in the clips below, these decisions are often suboptimal, squandering advantages and high expected value shots with slow processing, missing reads to the corner, back to the liftman in pick-and-roll and wide open streakers in transition:
Not creating advantages to the rim neuters his passing greatly and he placed in the fifth percentile on pick and rolls including passes on low volume:
Porter has shown some flashes of passing aptitude and is developing some basic pick and roll reads, like dishes over top to the roller and basic pass-outs. He has also dimed up cutters on his drives and has even had some screen manipulation with his handle and timing reading weak side defenders:
Still, his playmaking is starkly underdeveloped. Luckily, Denver’s offensive context should mitigate the need for Porter to create advantages on the ball.
Porter played 500 of his 1,388 possessions with Nikola Jokic, arguably the game’s best passer. While there weren’t too many significant differences in Porter’s efficiency or shot profile with Jokic on or off, his usage with Jokic off increased about three percent, his two-point percentage spiked 14% and his 3-point percentage plummeted 20%.
Ignoring any shooting number, Porter’s net rating jumps from -0.07 with Jokic off to +1.58 with Jokic on and playing more minutes with Jokic should be a boon to Porter’s offense.
Denver’s offense generates the second-most points on cuts of any offense and is the third-most efficient (1.359 PPP) and Porter will thrive as an oversized diver to the cup, circling around Jokic and slicing behind occupied defenders for easy scores:
Defensively, Porter’s intelligence deficiency on offense haunts him on the other end of the floor as well. He reads the game slowly as a defender; late or non-existent rotations and miscommunications in off-ball and pick-and-roll defense are too common at this stage.
Porter isn’t a playmaker as evidenced by his 1.5 steal rate and 2.6 block rate. That block rate ties for the lowest among players 6-foot-10 or taller this season, as Porter’s lagging help instincts lower his rim protection impact. He isn’t incredibly mobile either, beaten often at the point of attack and clunky changing directions in space:
Most of Porter’s defensive value at this point comes from his tools; his 6-foot-10 frame and seven-foot wingspan are good for the occasional steal or block. He’s big enough to body up in the post with larger players on occasion and can hang with slower perimeter attackers:
This season, Porter finished as the 314th best player per Player Impact Plus-Minus at -0.7, grading out as a slight positive offensively (+0.07) and a solid negative on defense (-0.78). That general valuation seems correct, as Porter’s decision making and driving hold back his preternatural shotmaking and his tools don’t do much to make up for his overall defensive lapses.
The determinants of Porter’s ceiling are, first and foremost, how good his shotmaking levels out at. If Porter can sustain this type of shotmaking production while age naturally irons out the rest of his game, Porter looks like a future star.
Those ancillary offensive skills will be the key to his true superstar upside. Most are not sure how much greater Porter’s rim gravity will get due to his injury history likely limiting his burst and mobility. His ball-handling and passing can improve, however, and at his potential baseline of shooting, those skills won’t need to be elite for Porter to add All-NBA value.
The other obvious key to Porter’s future success is remaining healthy. Not sustaining continuous minor or major setbacks should allow Porter to build up his defensive mobility, improving on that side of the ball as his intellect hopefully matures.
All in all, Porter’s rookie season was a relative success, flashing the upside of a future star but likely not of the superstar many once touted him as. If he can stay on the court and sustain his current shotmaking level along with the development of other skills, he could be a valuable piece for a Denver team that projects to compete for championships throughout the 2020s.
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