Tag: Justin Herbert fantasy football

Fantasy football waiver wire: Week 11 free-agent forecast

Here are the top waiver-wire targets in fantasy football entering Week 11.

With the fantasy football season entering its second half, the waiver wire remains arguably the most important tool to make that push for the playoffs.

There are another four teams on a bye in Week 11, including the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

We’ll be taking a look at the top available players rostered in Yahoo, using the 75% rostered mark (at least 25% availability) as the threshold. If you have any questions about prioritizing a certain player over another, don’t be afraid to hit me up on X, formerly Twitter, (@KevinHickey11). Your questions and comments are always welcome!

We also will be taking a look at some deeper players to stash and the top streaming options for the upcoming week.

Fantasy football waiver wire recommendations refer to 12-team league formats, unless specifically stated.

Check back for any updates throughout Monday and Tuesday as more injury news becomes available.

Fantasy football: Where to draft Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert

Analyzing Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert’s 2024 fantasy football value to help you win your fantasy football league.

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Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert has been impressive in his 4 NFL seasons, but that hasn’t translated to team success. Taken 6th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, Herbert was the 2020 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year and was selected to the Pro Bowl in the 2021 season. Since then, Herbert’s record is 15-15, and his teams have struggled to win consistently.

Herbert could take a sizable leap forward in his progression over last season. He has top-5 QB potential, but didn’t live up to the hype last season. Below, we look at Justin Herbert’s 2024 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

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Justin Herbert’s ADP: 118.17

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Herbert has an ADP of 118.17 in redraft leagues, which puts him in the 10th to 15th round, depending on the size of the league. His ADP his lower than that of multiple teammates, including Derwin James (108.50).

Among quarterbacks, Herbert’s ADP puts him 22nd at the position, behind  Bo Nix (Denver Broncos, 112.94), Spencer Rattler (New Orleans Saints, 108.16) and Aaron Rodgers (New York Jets, 109.38), and slightly ahead of Kirk Cousins (Atlanta Falcons, 121.04) and Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams, 120.37).

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Justin Herbert’s 2023-24 stats

Games: 13

Passing yards: 3,134

Completions | attempts: 297 | 456

Passing touchdowns: 20

Interceptions: 7

Carries | rushing yards: 52 | 228

Rushing touchdowns: 3

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Where should you draft Herbert?

The Chargers lost both their starting running back and top receiving threat this offseason. While that sounds debilitating, it should mean that they rely on Herbert’s playmaking even more.

The 6-foot-6 Herbert was the 2nd-best fantasy QB in 2021, throwing for 38 TDs and north of 5,000 yards. That player is in there somewhere, but the last few seasons, he failed to top 25 TDs. Herbert has the arm strength and the accuracy with a career completion percentage of 66.6%.

The better question is can he return to his previous form without superstars around him? Some of that will depend on the development of WR Ladd McConkey, who was taken with the 34th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Regardless of McConkey’s impact, Herbert should be able to bounce back, and if he stays healthy, he should be able to give managers a good return on investment.

Given his past success and the fact he’ll be at full strength at the start of the season, draft Herbert higher than his ADP and feel free to reach for him in 2-QB leagues. His banged-up 2023 campaign shouldn’t reflect on what is to come. Take Herbert in the 7th or 8th round of standard leagues after most top-tier QBs have flown off the board.

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Evaluating Justin Herbert’s fantasy football outlook

Will Herbert rebound with a new coaching staff and weaker receiving corps?

Based purely on talent, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is near the top of the heap, boasting plus athleticism, a great arm, and the confidence to attempt just about any throw. His numbers haven’t been as impressive. After passing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns in his sophomore season, the former Oregon Duck saw his output dip to 4,739 yards and 25 TDs in 2022, and then 3,134 yards with just 20 TDs last year. A

finger injury cost Herbert the final four games, but even projecting his numbers comes out to a relatively disappointing 4,098 yards and 26 TDs.

The only constant throughout Herbert’s four seasons has been change, playing under a trio of offensive coordinators (Shane Steichen, Joe Lombardi, and Kellen Moore). That continues in 2024 as new head coach Jim Harbaugh has brought Greg Roman along as OC. On the personnel side, the standout receiver tandem of Keenan Allen (Chicago Bears) and Mike Williams (New York Jets) are both gone, as is tight end Gerald Everett (Bears).

On the field, Allen, who caught 380 passes over the last four seasons, is the biggest loss. It’s the change off it that could make an even bigger difference, however, as the tandem of Harbaugh and Roman have made no secret about their desire to control the line of scrimmage and run the football. It’s a philosophy that was driven home by the selection of offensive tackle Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft. LA also overhauled the running back room, signing former Baltimore Ravens J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards as the top two backs.

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At receiver, the Bolts will try to replace Allen and Williams with returning talent Joshua Palmer (38-581-2 in 2023) and last year’s first-rounder Quentin Johnston (38-431-2), free-agent signee DJ Chark Jr. (35-525-5) with the Carolina Panthers), and second-round selection Ladd McConkey. There are some interesting names here, particularly if Johnston can develop into the player that thought they were getting with the 21st overall pick a year ago, but nobody comes with the track record of Williams, much less Allen.

Fantasy football outlook

A change in coaching, a change in offensive philosophy, and a change in personnel. Add it all up and it’s a lot to overcome for anyone, especially when you consider that Herbert has already seen his numbers trend in the wrong direction the past couple of years. That’s the glass half-empty perspective.

The optimistic viewpoint centers on Herbert’s skill set and a belief that you don’t pay a quarterback north of $50 million per season to have him throw 20 passes a game. He’s a tremendous talent, and he has shown a willingness throughout his career to target whoever is on the field in any situation, so don’t expect him to be gun shy with lesser known wideouts. Whether they can deliver is yet to be known.

While he’s best viewed as a QB2, Herbert carries viable upside. He may prove to be frustrating to play in fantasy, however.

Does the LA Chargers offense have room for Quentin Johnston?

LA’s offense is rich with talent, but there’s only one football. Will Johnston matter as a rookie?

With a positional depth chart that includes a five-time Pro Bowl selection (Keenan Allen), a former top-10 pick with two 1,000-yard campaigns under his belt (Mike Williams), and a third-year pro coming off a 72-769-3 effort in 2022 (Joshua Palmer), wide receiver didn’t look like a pressing need for the Los Angeles Chargers entering the 2023 NFL Draft. General manager Tom Telesco disagreed.

Telesco decided to use his first-round pick, 22nd overall, on TCU wideout Quentin Johnston, who caught 60 passes for 1,069 yards and six touchdowns as a junior last year. While the pick initially might have raised some eyebrows, especially given LA’s glaring issues running the ball and stopping the run, a closer look shows a potentially strong fit.

Let’s start with the holdovers. Long considered one of the NFL’s best route runners, Allen turned 31 in April and is coming of an injury-plagued 2022 that saw him miss seven games. The veteran is also more chain mover than downfield threat, having not eclipsed 12.0 yards per catch since 2018.

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Williams is great on contested balls, but he has dealt with injuries as well, and despite his size he’s topped five TD grabs in a season only once in the past four years. While Palmer took a step in Year 2, he’s yet to prove he’s more than a possession option.

Despite all three being talented contributors, there’s one thing they’re all missing: speed. That lack of big-play ability is borne out in Justin Herbert‘s numbers as the strong-armed quarterback averaged a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt — only Tom Brady (733) attempted more passes than Herbert (699), who finished second to Patrick Mahomes (5,250) in passing yardage (4,739) despite heavily featuring short and intermediate routes.

Los Angeles hopes the selection of Johnston will go a long way toward fixing that issue. The rookie has an exciting mix of size (6-foot-3, 208 pounds), speed, and acceleration, and he’ll be given every chance to claim the starting job opposite Williams on the outside with Allen manning the slot. In that scenario, Palmer would slide into the No. 4 receiver role.

There’s also sure to be changes as Kellen Moore takes over as offensive coordinator from Joe Lombardi. During his four years as the Dallas Cowboys’ OC, Moore’s offenses ranked in the top six in scoring three times, and in terms of pushing the ball downfield, Dak Prescott averaged 8.2, 8.4, 7.5, and 7.3 yards per attempt, respectively, under Moore.

Fantasy football outlook

Things could go a few ways for Johnston in 2023. If he comes in, picks up Moore’s playbook, and earns a starting job, he could become Herbert’s de facto deep threat. In that role, Johnston could have real value given Herbert’s willingness (and ability) to air it out.

If the rookie struggles, LA could roll with Allen, Williams, and Palmer, pushing Johnston into reserve duty. Even if that ends up being the case, he’s one injury away from a featured role in a prominent passing design.

Consider Johnston a borderline top-50 fantasy receiver who would make an intriguing late-round target.

No. 1 fantasy football quarterback: Josh Allen vs. Justin Herbert

Is Herbert a good bet to overtake Allen as the top fantasy QB?

When it comes to fantasy football quarterbacks, for years it seemed like you saw the same names of veteran quarterbacks at the top of draft boards. Heading into 2022, two young names have emerged as the top candidates based on dominating the fantasy world over the last couple of seasons  – Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers.

Who is your best bet if you taking the No. 1 guy on the board? A pretty persuasive case can be made for both.

The case for and against Josh Allen

  • Over the last two seasons he has thrown two or more touchdown passes in 26 of 33 games and, in the seven games he didn’t, had at least one rushing touchdown.
  • In his career (61 games, 60 starts), he rushed for 2,325 yards – an average of 38 yards a game – and has scored 31 ground touchdowns.
  • Allen’s most prolific rushing season came last year when he set career highs with 122 carries for 763 yards and scored six rushing touchdowns.
  • He has scored eight or more rushing touchdowns in three of four seasons – a number many fantasy owners would be satisfied with from a running back.
  • The Bills offense has come to depend on him more each year since his rookie season. Allen’s pass attempts and completions have gone up in each of the past three years, topping out by finishing 2021 with 646 attempts, 409 completions, 4,407 passing yards and 36 touchdowns.
  • Over the past two seasons, he has thrown for 8,951 yards and 73 touchdowns, while rushing for 1,184 yards and 14 touchdowns.
  • In 33 games over the last two seasons, he has amassed 280 or more passing yards in 16 of them.
  • Buffalo’s pedestrian run game helps Allen from the fantasy perspective. Since Allen has been with the Bills, there hasn’t been a running back rush for more than 870 yards.
  • In 2021, Buffalo ran 1,143 offensive plays. Just 415 of those (36.3 percent) were run plays and 102 of those (24.6 percent) were runs by Allen, leaving just 268 carries (23.4 percent of all offensive plays) as rushes by Devin Singletary and Zack Moss.
  • Buffalo changed offensive coordinators heading into this offseason, going from the stability of Brian Daboll to first-time play-caller Ken Dorsey. Granted, the latter learned under the former and not much is expected to change, but there’s no way to account for how Dorsey will respond to in-game management. Calling plays has some art to it, even from the same playbook.
  • The Bills drafted running back James Cook while losing wide receivers Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason. Allen will need to establish chemistry with Jamison Crowder, and third-year wideout Gabriel Davis must step up his game.
  • While the starting right guard and tackle spots are not entirely settled, Buffalo has plenty of depth, and veteran left guard Rodger Saffold came over from Tennessee to anchor that side. He’s better at run blocking than pass pro but is coming off a Pro Bowl selection and remains one of the top interior veterans at his position.

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The case for and against Justin Herbert

  • Herbert has thrown for 9,350 yards and 69 touchdowns in 32 career games, the most prolific start to a career in NFL history. Dan Marino threw 68 TDs over five fewer starts.
  • He has been a yardage monster, averaging 292.2 passing yards a game in his career – 289.1 yards as a rookie and 294.9 yards last season. Herbert’s yards-per-game average is No. 1 and clear ahead of second place by 36.1 (Andrew Luck).
  • He has displayed accuracy that is rare for a young QB transitioning to the NFL. He completed 66.2 percent of his career passes.
  • In 2021, he became just the ninth quarterback in NFL history to throw for 5,000 or more yards in a season, joining Dan Marino, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes and Jameis Winston.
  • While Herbert doesn’t run as often as Allen, he has scored eight rushing touchdowns in two years.
  • The Chargers accounted for 1,128 offensive plays last season, and just 423 of them (37.5 percent) were running plays. When you take Herbert out of the equation for scrambles, it drops to just 360 rushes (31.9).
  • Los Angeles plays in division where everyone has loaded up on offensive talent, which lends itself to shootout games.
  • Herbert finds a way to keep all his receivers happy and engaged. In 2021, the Chargers had eight players who caught 20 or more passes, six who caught 30 or more, and three (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler) who caught 70 or more passes.
  • In the last 15 games of the 2021 season, Los Angeles scored 27 or more points in 11 of them, including each of the last six. In that same span, the Chargers gave up 27 or more points in nine of them, putting undo pressure on the offense to keep scoring.
  • LA added veteran tight end Gerald Everett to replace the well-aged Jared Cook. Every other key component of the offense returns intact, and LA upgraded its offensive line with first-round rookie Zion Johnson.

Fantasy football outlook

Herbert has made a strong case in two seasons for a Chargers team that seemingly needs to keep throwing to win games or come from behind to try to win, but Josh Allen is the pick here for those erring on the side of caution.

Los Angeles upgraded the defensive in the offseason and may not need to rely as much on Herbert’s arm. It’s not as big of a gap as some may think, and it wouldn’t be too brazen to draft Herbert ahead of Allen if an owner wanted to take a calculated risk.

While not exactly the Jim Kelly-led K-Gun offense that dominated the AFC 30 years ago, Allen’s ability to throw touchdowns as well as being the most dangerous runner for the Bills near the goal line gives him the razor-thin edge to be the first quarterback to come off the board in fantasy drafts this year.

Fantasy football team previews: AFC West

Huge changes with Denver and Vegas look to turn the division on its head.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West