Iowa Hawkeyes – Page 159 – Syndication Server

Iowa at Nebraska odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Friday’s Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers sports betting odds and lines, with college football betting picks and best bets.

The Iowa Hawkeyes (8-3, 5-3 Big Ten West) do battle with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-6, 3-5) Friday at 2:30 p.m. ET in Lincoln, Neb. We analyze the Iowa-Nebraska odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Iowa at Nebraska: Three things you need to know

1. The Cornhuskers need a victory or they’re going to be home for the holidays rather than bowling.

2. Iowa ranks 13th in total yards allowed (306.5), and it’s 19th in the nation against the pass (191.3), 22nd in rushing yards allowed (115.2) and fifth in points allowed (12.2 PPG).

3. After starting out 2-5 against the spread, Iowa has posted a 3-1 ATS mark across the past four. The Under is 8-1-1 across the past 10 after an Over result in the opener vs. Miami (Ohio).

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Iowa at Nebraska: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:15 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Iowa 26, Nebraska 18

Moneyline (ML)

Iowa (-228) should be able to pull off its ninth victory of the season while securing a spot in an upper-tier bowl game. Nebraska (+185) handled a defensively-challenged Maryland side last week to give itself a chance at a bowl trip, but Iowa is a great defensive club which will give the ‘Huskers fits. Nebraska has just one victory against winning teams this season, and it’s 0-5 ATS in such situations.

New to sports betting? Every $1 wagered for Iowa to win outright will return a profit of $4.40.

Against the Spread (ATS)

IOWA (-5.5, -115) is a near-elite side, especially defensively, and Nebraska (+5.5, -106) won’t roll over the Hawkeyes like they did last weekend against the Terrapins. Iowa’s offense isn’t terrible, either, as QB Nate Stanley can make the throws to be a difference-maker.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS. The projection of 44.5 is a strong total, and Iowa’s defense has me leaning to the Under. However, the over is 9-3 in Iowa’s past 12 road games, and 14-6-1 in Nebraska’s past 21 Big Ten affairs. The Over is also 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series.

Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Big Ten Football Week 14 Rooting Interests

With one week left in the college football season, bowl pictures are beginning to shape up. Here is what every Big Ten team should root fo.

We have already looked at what Ohio State should root for this week. As the Buckeyes have gone undefeated until now and the Playoff picture is clearer, Ohio State’s interests are becoming simpler. There is plenty for the rest of the Big Ten to root for, though, especially as the bowl picture becomes clearer. There isn’t much for the lower Big Ten teams to root for, so I’m only going to deal with those teams that are (potentially) bowl-eligible. I will go more or less in reverse order of the current Big Ten standings, but Indiana is by far the most interesting, so I’ll deal with them before Illinois.

Michigan State Spartans

This is simple for the Spartans. Win this week and go bowling. Depending on what fans want in a bowl game, other rooting interests can be different. Do you want to face another 6-6 P5 team? Root for North Carolina and Boston College to win this week. (And I guess for Clemson to lose to South Carolina to potentially free up another ACC bowl spot.) If you’d rather see Michigan State play a more winnable game against a replacement team, then root against North Carolina and Boston College instead.

Indiana Hoosiers

The last time Indiana was in anything approximating a major bowl game was the 1990 Peach Bowl. Well, due to a weird confluence of circumstances, the Hoosiers are looking at an Outback Bowl bid this year. How and why could the Big Ten’s seventh-best team end up in a New Years’ Day (and the conference’s third/fourth-best) bowl game? Let’s break it down.

The Big Ten’s current six-year bowl contract states that each bowl must have at least five different teams over the six year. The only Big Ten bowl partner that has to worry about meeting this criteria is the Outback Bowl. The Outback Bowl took Iowa both last year and after the 2016 season, and therefore has only had four Big Ten teams in the last five year. The other three teams were Wisconsin, Michigan, and Northwestern. Northwestern won’t be in any bowl game this year, obviously. However, this means that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa cannot be selected for this year’s Outback Bowl.

So, what other teams would be selected in front of Indiana? The other top-level options are Ohio State, Penn State, and Minnesota. It seems nearly impossible for Ohio State to not make an NY6 Bowl. So all Indiana needs is for Penn State and Minnesota to be selected for NY6 bowls or the Citrus Bowl, and Indiana is the only real choice left for the Outback Bowl.

What should Indiana fans look for to get this outcome?

First of all, Ohio State should beat Michigan to keep the Wolverines out of the NY6 and Citrus Bowl pool. Then Minnesota should beat Wisconsin. If those two happen, Indiana is a near-lock for the Outback Bowl. The Ohio State-Minnesota winner will make the Playoff and the loser heads to the Rose Bowl; Penn State will either be in the Orange Bowl or Citrus Bowl. And even if Big Ten bowls slide up a slot or two (say, if both Ohio State and Minnesota make the Playoff and/or if Penn State gets the Cotton Bowl), Indiana will still get the Outback Bowl. Michigan and/or Wisconsin would move up into the next NY6 bowl or Citrus Bowl, which still leaves Indiana as the best option for the Outback Bowl.

In fact, even if Indiana loses to Purdue, the Hoosiers are possibly headed to the Outback Bowl. Illinois would be competition for the spot, though, so Northwestern taking out Illinois would be important. Of course, there is a chance the Outback Bowl would request a 6-6 Michigan State team (or Nebraska) over Indiana, so Indiana should just take care of business and beat Purdue.

If, however, Wisconsin beats Minnesota or Michigan beats Ohio State, then things get complicated. As long as Penn State or Minnesota doesn’t get pushed out of the NY6 and Citrus Bowls, Indiana will get the Outback. If, however, one of those two falls far enough, that team will almost certainly get priority for the Outback Bowl over Indiana.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois is very likely locked into the Pinstripe Bowl (very slight change at the Redbox Bowl). While the Big Ten bowl pool doesn’t officially have any real hierarchy, in reality those are the two lowest. And it makes sense–those will also have the weaker opponents, which will provide better games. The Pinstripe Bowl will have a middle-of-the-pack ACC team, while the Redbox Bowl will feature a middle-of-the-pack Pac 12 team. Either should be a good opponent for this Illinois team.

If Illinois fans want a more prestigious bowl, though, just look at everything in the last section about Indiana. Root for all of that, plus an Indiana loss to Purdue. If that happens, 7-5 Illinois might just be the Outback Bowl’s (and the Big Ten’s) preferred choice.

Next… Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan

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Illinois-Iowa odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s Illinois at Iowas college football matchup, with college football betting odds, picks and best bets

The Illinois Fighting Illini (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten West) and Iowa Hawkeyes (7-3, 4-3 West) lock horns at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City at noon ET on Saturday.

We analyze the Illinois-Iowa odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Illinois at Iowa: Three things you need to know

1. Illinois has won four in a row, moving to 6-4 to secure bowl eligibility for the first time since 2014 when they appeared in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

2. The Illini have won six games despite the fact they rank 112th in the FBS in total yards (333.7) and 108th in passing yards (183.4).

3. Iowa QB Nate Stanley has passed for 2,331 yards, 14 passing touchdowns and five interceptions with just one rushing score.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a bet at BetMGM!

Illinois at Iowa: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1:15 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Iowa 21, Illinois 18

Moneyline (ML)

Iowa (-834) is favored by more than two touchdowns, and the Hawkeyes should be able to get it done at home. However, the Illini have surprised and defied the odds, winning in this spot before. I expect the Hawkeyes to win, but it will be a one-possession game.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Iowa to win would return a profit of $1.20.

Against the Spread (ATS)

ILLINOIS (+14.5, -106) continues to get no respect from Vegas. Despite their winning ways lately, the Illini have been a double-digit underdog in six of their past seven outings, winning three games outright while going 5-1 ATS. Illinois is 5-0 ATS in the past five games overall, too, so why bet against the Illini now?

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER (46.5, -110) is the dominant trend for both sides lately. The under is 4-1 in the past five on the road for Illinois, while going 4-0-1 in Iowa’s past five at Kinnick. The under is also 6-1 in Iowa’s past seven league games and 5-1 in the past six against teams with a winning overall mark.

Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Wisconsin fixed problems against Iowa, but will that beat Minnesota?

Considering the Wisconsin Badgers’ situation relative to the Minnesota Golden Gophers after UW’s win over the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Had the Minnesota Golden Gophers not beaten Penn State and made themselves an even bigger target for the Wisconsin Badgers, we wouldn’t be devoting quite as much time or energy to the task of beating the Gophers on Nov. 30. Yet, one can’t work with events as one wishes they would be. One must deal with events as they actually are. It’s called living in the real world.

Minnesota has made itself more of a problem for Wisconsin. It’s not what UW fans wanted, but it is the reality the Badgers must confront. That will be a very hard game to win. Therefore, it is worth spending some of these November days focusing not just on Nebraska and then Purdue, but on P.J. Fleck and his folks. How will the Badgers go into Minneapolis and come away with Paul Bunyan’s Axe?

Based on Wisconsin’s win over the Iowa Hawkeyes this past Saturday, a number of interesting questions and attached tension points have emerged. The question I will explore in this particular piece is as follows: Can Wisconsin win this game simply by eradicating mistakes, or will the Badgers need to push themselves far beyond their limits?

Yes, the best answer is “both,” but let’s be clear before we continue with this brief piece: Against Ohio State (or, to use a non-Big Ten example, LSU or Clemson), it is obvious that Wisconsin and other second-tier teams in the United States have to play way over their heads and make “value-added” plays to have a real chance to win. Is Minnesota that kind of opponent? I am inclined to say “no,” but my opinion doesn’t matter that much. A reasonable middle ground on this question is that while Minnesota certainly isn’t in Ohio State’s league, the Gophers made Penn State look bad for much of this past Saturday’s game and — had they not fumbled when leading by two scores in the third quarter — could have blown the doors off the Nittany Lions.

Minnesota went from being “a team which beats up on the bottom of the Big Ten” to “a team that is for real” against Penn State. Do we know yet if the Gophers are not merely “for real” and “a team to be taken seriously,” but genuinely ELITE? I don’t think so.

The tricky part for Wisconsin: The Badgers can’t use that lack of knowledge to assume they can win merely by avoiding mistakes against the Gophers. This leads us into the heart of this piece, and one of the most fascinating tension points of the game on Nov. 30 in TCF Bank Stadium:

Lots of talk about the #Badgers' illegal formation penalties. UW also had three false-start penalties in opening quarter. None after that, however.

— Jeff Potrykus (@jaypo1961) November 10, 2019

The Badgers’ offense improved when the dumb penalties ceased. Wisconsin’s offense got out of its own way. Its running game flourished when the Badgers weren’t behind schedule. Two plus two equals four.

However, after the offense got out of its own way, the defense allowed a 75-yard touchdown and endured another one of its fourth-quarter swoons, the previous one being against Illinois. We wrote about the problems in the secondary which have allowed that alarming detail to remain part of this team’s identity in the second half of the season.

Imagine, then, if both the offense and the defense spend a full game not making huge mistakes, with the level of performance we saw from Jack Coan (tolerable, but not spectacular). Is that going to be enough against the Gophers? It’s an interesting query. One could go back and forth on that topic.

The strength of the argument rests with the offensive line. If there aren’t any false-start penalties and Jonathan Taylor gets four or more yards per carry, the Badgers could pound Minnesota’s defensive front and turn this game into the trench warfare battle they want. A game based on the elimination of mistakes could be all Wisconsin needs.

The weakness of this argument is based on the awareness of how much speed Minnesota has, not only in relationship to Iowa but to a Wisconsin team which was outflanked at times by Illinois. Keep in mind that if Jack Coan throws the ball against Minnesota the way he did against Iowa, the Gophers’ closing speed in the secondary might turn Wisconsin catches into incompletions on successful pass breakups. Eliminating bad mistakes from the ledger sheet will put Wisconsin in position to win, but that might not be enough to put UW over the top.

Yes, Wisconsin’s offense fixed its problems versus Iowa, and the team in general took a clear step forward from the previous two games. Yet, will that be enough to beat Minnesota? You don’t have to answer that question right away… and that’s part of the point. Wisconsin will have to wrestle with that question over the next few weeks. This is the reality facing the Badgers, now that the Gophers have made themselves such an obstacle, at least in 2019.

Jack Coan needs to start hitting his spots

An assessment of Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Jack Coan after Saturday’s win over the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Jack Coan wasn’t bad for the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday against the Iowa Hawkeyes. For the most part, the football went where it needed to go. Coan made enough of the throws he had to make to assist the running game and Jonathan Taylor. Wisconsin needed every one of the 24 points it scored to fend off Iowa and move to 7-2 on the season, keeping alive hopes for a New Year’s Six bowl bid.

Coan was solid. He did what he had to do. That certainly rates as progress after an Ohio State game which quickly went sideways and never got back on track. If Coan can make steady progress in and through the month of November, Wisconsin can beat Minnesota on Nov. 30, the game which looms as the defining moment of this season for the Badgers.

When considering Wisconsin’s checklist against Minnesota — a team which currently stands above the Badgers in the Big Ten pecking order due to their win over Penn State — one thing which has to happen is that Coan has to become a far more accurate quarterback. Explaining this point requires a look back at the Iowa game.

If you go through this contest, you will note that even when Wisconsin hit an intermediate or deep pass, the receiver gained enough separation from an Iowa defender that Coan didn’t have to be letter-perfect with his throw. Whether we are talking about zip, touch, angle, or placement, Coan was not at the height of his powers. He did get the ball there, but that was more a reflection of his receivers’ ability to separate from defenders.

Against Minnesota’s team speed (on a general level) and its secondary (on a more particular level), Coan will likely not have the same large windows to throw to. Margins are likely to be smaller. The Golden Gophers’ closing speed was a problem for Penn State and quarterback Sean Clifford, who was unable to gun the ball into coverage. His throws were often lobbed toward his receivers, and Minnesota was able to pick off multiple passes as a result.

Coan has to look at film of Clifford versus Minnesota (not this week, but certainly during game week in late November) and understand just how important it is that he not float passes into traffic. That is one part of the equation Coan needs to figure out in the coming weeks.

The other part of the puzzle for Coan — if Wisconsin wants to have the best possible chance of beating Minnesota — is that he has to be more precise with his throws. Think of Josh Hader this past season. His regression from 2018 cost the Milwaukee Brewers a division title and the National League Wild Card Game against the eventual World Series champion Washington Nationals. Hader simply didn’t hit his spots often enough. So it was for Coan against Iowa, even though he still made enough important completions to deliver the win.

Go back to the Iowa game and notice all the times Coan completed a short or intermediate pass into the flat or outside the numbers. On several of those occasions, a receiver had to reach up or to the side to gather the ball. This process of extending for the ball — instead of having the ball thrown to the place where the receiver could easily catch the ball in stride — slowed down the receiver’s momentum. A receiver could not make a catch and then quickly turn upfield to either avoid the Iowa defender entirely, or at least make an upward cut to gain five or six more yards after the catch.

Against Minnesota, Jack Coan will need to hit receivers in stride, so that the plays which gained seven yards against Iowa will gain 13 against the Gophers, and plays which gained 20 yards can become 30-yarders. The 30-yarders can turn into 60-yard home runs.

Jack Coan’s imperfect placement wasn’t punished by Iowa. An effective running game and a strong offensive line enabled Wisconsin’s passing game to be more effective, since Iowa was so focused on stopping Jonathan Taylor. Against Minnesota, though, Jack Coan will need to be more precise. It would hit the spot if the Badgers can make the Gophers miserable. Hitting the spot will happen, however, only if Jack Coan hits the spot himself.