Tag: CFP Implications

Can Ryan Day carry over the success with Ohio State in an underdog role?

Ohio State has been favored in every single matchup this year, but that’s not the case in the Fiesta Bowl. How will Ryan Day handle it?

With the regular season and another Big Ten Trophy in the trophy case at The Woody, Ohio State now turns its eyes towards preparing for the matchup in the desert against the reigning champs Clemson Tigers.

With the recent history against Clemson, it’s an intriguing matchup. Ohio State is 0-3 against the Tigers, and fans would love to get a sour taste out of their mouth after the 31-0 dominating game Clemson pitched against Ohio State in 2016. Could it be that this year will change the narrative against Clemson?

For the first time this year, Ohio State is an underdog in the Fiesta Bowl despite being the higher seed. In just a short week, it went from being the College Football Playoff’s No. 1 team, to now nearly everyone picking the Tigers to beat the Buckeyes and move on to the national title game. While it may be disappointing to many, it could also be just the extra motivation that the team needs to elbow its own way to a national title.

But let’s be clear here. While there are several players that were part of that 2016 team this one is very, very different. Whether it be coaches, players, or schemes, Ohio State is far different than when it got trounced in the desert last time out.

Some might remember that Urban Meyer was incredible as an underdog with a crazy and somewhat unbelievable 7-0 record.  Could Day be just as great with Urban in that category? Day has this calm presence and has faced adversity this year.

While the conference championship game was too close in the first half for comfort, it tested Day and his staff’s resolve, resiliency, and game-management on the biggest stage yet in his young coaching career. When it’s all said and done, all eyes will be eagerly awaiting the matchup in the desert in the Playstation Fiesta Bowl to see how he does.

Maybe he’ll show he can go from underdog to top dog?

 

After not getting a carry in the Big Ten Championship Game, will we see Master Teage in the Fiesta Bowl plans?

Ohio State backup RB Master Teague didn’t get a carry in the Big Ten Championship Game. What’s in store for him in the Fiesta Bowl?

Master Teague was named third-team all big ten this year despite not getting any carries against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin. That certainly makes one wonder how much part Teague will play with Ohio State’s gameplan in the College Football Playoff.

While some may say that Teague is being underutilized, it’s more likely that the dominance of starting running back J.K. Dobbins has taken away snaps from Teague as the Ohio State coaching staff goes with the hot hand and known commodity.

But now, not only does OSU have a fresh Teague, it has a starting running back that’s nearing 2,000 yards on the season.

To this point in the season, Teague has almost 800 yards rushing and has proven to be a dynamic complement to Dobbins in the running game. It makes some reminisce about the days of Boom and Zoom which was the combination of Boom Herron and Jordan Hall in 2009.

Dobbins and Teague though have better eye-popping stats, with the duo looking at the possibility of rushing for over 2,800 yards on the season once the curtain falls on the 2019 postseason.

So what does all of this mean for the Fiesta Bowl and hopefully beyond?

Of course we’re still going to see a ton of J.K. Dobbins, but look for Teague to be used in short yards situations, or as Dobbins gets gassed from the pounding he is likely to take against Clemson’s defensive front.

No matter what happens, with Dobbins expected to exit the college stage to the NFL after this season, it will most likely be Teague as the featured back next year. He looks to be the next one in the long lineage of great running backs in Ohio Stae history. Buckeye fans can certainly be excited about the future of Master Teague.

But first, I have a feeling we’ll see him a bit more on December 28 when Ohio State tries to slay the defending national champions and earn a spot in the New Orleans for a chance to win a national championship of its own.

 

Final 2019 College Football Bowl Projections

Finally, with all of the college football games (aside from Army-Navy) complete, we can look ahead to the bowl season. Teams will find out where they’re going bowling at some point on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t try to tell you where …

Finally, with all of the college football games (aside from Army-Navy) complete, we can look ahead to the bowl season. Teams will find out where they’re going bowling at some point on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t try to tell you where every team will be going. We’ve been patiently tracking rumors and conversations about who will be going where. After patiently dealing with all of the rules and regulations for each conference, here are my best guesses as to every bowl matchup.

Remember: Nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The Group of 5 conferences essentially have no selection order preference. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, matchup quality, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where each team could be headed.

79 teams are bowl-eligible this year, and there are 78 slots available in bowl games. Right now, I have Eastern Michigan being the unlucky team that will stay home, though it could definitely be Toledo or Kent State.

I will also update these for the next few hours Saturday night if any credible rumors come in.

College Football Playoff

Peach Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM LSU vs Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM Ohio State vs Clemson

This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so LSU will get the Peach Bowl against Oklahoma.

The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Clemson will by far be the bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given prime time billing.

Next… NY6 and other Big Ten bowls

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CFP Eliminator: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma the Playoff four

We make our final eliminations of the year in the College Football Playoff race, leaving LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, and Oklahoma as the Top 4

Welcome to the final edition of this year’s Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.

Now that we are at the end of the season, though, there are no questions about winning out. Now the question is if four teams have superior resumes to everyone else. Some years, we are left with a bubble after the conference championship games. This year, we don’t have one. Our four Playoff teams are very clear. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, and Oklahoma will be in the Playoff.

Week 14 Eliminations:

Team: Notes:
Baylor The Bears lost a second game and the Big 12 Championship, which will keep them out of the Playoff. The Sugar Bowl is a good consolation though.
Georgia A blowout loss to LSU ends the Playoff dreams.
Oregon The Ducks were eliminated before the week started. The gap to the top contenders was just too much to overcome.
Utah The Utes are 0-2 against ranked teams now, which won’t get a Playoff bid.
Wisconsin The Badgers fought hard and impressed against Ohio State, which likely earned a Rose Bowl berth. Not enough to get into the Playoff, though.

Next… Eliminations from earlier in the season

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Week 15 College Football Bowl Projections

With just the conference championship games remaining, our Bowl Projections look at how all teams currently stand in the bowl picture.

Welcome to the second-to-last set of bowl projections that I will be providing. Make sure not to miss Phil Harrison’s projections. Every week, Phil projects to the end of the season and gives you where he thinks the Big Ten teams will end up.

I, however, will not be predicting who will win games. Instead, these projections are based on where every team sits now. Meaning, if the season ended today, where would every team be heading to bowl games? That way, readers can know what their team needs to do to move up or down in bowl selection order.

My final set of bowl projections will come out on Saturday night, right after the games end. Those might look very different than these, depending on what happens Saturday. (For example, there are currently two SEC teams in the Playoff. That will almost certainly no longer be true if LSU beats Georgia.)

Also, remember that nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The Group of 5 conferences often have no selection order preference. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, matchup quality, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where each team could be headed.

As we approach Selection Sunday, we will be able to hear rumors and whispers as to which team is headed where. I do my best to keep track, and my projections on Saturday night will be based mostly on those. For now, though, all we know is that BYU has accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl and that the Bahamas Bowl will be Buffalo against Charlotte.)

79 teams are bowl-eligible this year, and there are 78 slots available in bowl games. Right now, I have Eastern Michigan being the unlucky team that will stay home, though it could definitely be Toledo or Kent State.

So, without further ado, here are this week’s bowl projections:

College Football Playoff

Peach Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM LSU vs Clemson
Fiesta Bowl Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM Ohio State vs Georgia

This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so Ohio State will not be forced to play Georgia in Atlanta.

The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Georgia will likely be the bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given prime time billing.

Next… NY6 and other Big Ten bowls

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Week 15 CFP Bubble Watch: Resume vs metrics

The choice for the final College Football Playoff team could come down to whether the committee values quality wins or how you play more.

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count eight teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. I eliminated Oregon on Tuesday night, though that was after the last article published.

Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the eight teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you. Additionally, I will show the resumes for Cincinnati and Boise State, in case that determines the Cotton Bowl. We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.

Right now, it looks like Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson have the top three spots locked down. Looking at the resumes will show why Ohio State and LSU can easily survive a loss this week. Clemson with a loss, though, is a bit more iffy. And, of course, the resumes will tell us who has the best shot at finishing No. 4.

How this works

Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.

Quality of wins

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.

I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.

The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.

Offensive and defensive performance

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

SOS range

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. SOS Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow a bit over the next few weeks. Still, different methodologies can lead to some very different types of SOS numbers, and getting the full range presents a more accurate picture.

Next… Teams that control their own destinies

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Making sense of the Big Ten bowl lineup

We will find out what bowls Big Ten teams are going to on Sunday. Let’s look at the potential destinations so we can be prepared for them.

Nine Big Ten teams will find out their bowl destinations on Sunday. Where will they be headed? And who are the likely opponents? Let’s look up and down the lineup and see what we can find. There are a few things that we know, though a ton is still up in the air. What happens this weekend–especially in the College Football Playoff race–will have trickle effects on all of the Big Ten’s biggest bowls.

First, we have to explain the Big Ten’s bowl process. After the Citrus Bowl, every bowl sends its preferred team(s) to the Big Ten. The conference then decide which teams go where, though there are some requirements. For example, most bowls have some sort of deal for “five teams in six years,” while the Pinstripe Bowl says its “goal is to have eight different Big Ten schools participate in eight years, with a minimum of six different” teams playing. As this year is the end of the six-year cycle for most of the bowls in the lineup, this leaves some bowls–most notably the Outback Bowl–in an awkward situation.

The easiest way to make sense of the lineup is to go through, bowl by bowl, what teams will be the likely option. Let’s start at the very top, where the answers are very obvious.

College Football Playoff

Restrictions: None

Likely teams: Ohio State

Barring an incredible collapse on Saturday night, the Ohio State Buckeyes will be going to the College Football Playoff. Either the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl is possible for the Buckeyes, though the Fiesta Bowl seems more likely. There is also a very slight chance that Wisconsin could find its way into the tournament. If the Badgers do make it, that will have shakeups down the bowl lineup, as I will explain.

Rose Bowl Game

Restrictions: None

Likely teams: Wisconsin, Penn State

Potential Opponents: Utah, Oregon

Based on the selection committee’s rankings this week, it seems very likely that Wisconsin will be going to the Rose Bowl. If, however, the Badgers get bumped down below Penn State after losing to Ohio State again, we could see the Nittany Lions in the Rose Bowl.

Remember, though, the Rose Bowl gets to select its Big Ten team. It will very likely follow the selection committee’s rankings, but it is not bound by them. So if Wisconsin loses badly but doesn’t drop in the rankings, it could still be passed over by the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl could even select Minnesota after the Gophers had their best season in over 50 years, though that no longer seems likely now that Minnesota is the Big Ten’s sixth-highest ranked team.

The opponent in this game will be either Utah or Oregon. If Utah wins the Pac 12 Championship Game but does not make it to the Playoff, then Utah will be the opponent. If Utah reaches the CFP or Utah loses the Pac 12 Championship Game, then Oregon will be the opponent.

Next… Other NY6 Bowls and New Years’ Day Bowls

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What the CFP selection committee taught us: Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl?

Let’s look at all the takeaways from the College Football Playoff selection committee’s second-to-last rankings of the season.

The College Football Playoff selection committee made no changes among its one-loss teams this week–aside from the obvious drops by Alabama and Minnesota, who no longer have only one loss. The pecking order of the remaining undefeated and one-loss teams stayed exactly the same as it was last week, which means that we don’t know too much going into next week.

Conventional wisdom dictates that Georgia and LSU both get in if Georgia wins. Looking at the resumes explains why LSU is likely still in with a loss. No other contender (aside from Ohio State and Georgia) has anywhere close to the collection of wins that LSU has.

Meanwhile, the committee gave us no real indication as to how much of a lead Utah has over Oklahoma and Baylor. Rob Mullens told us there was a lot of conversation about those three teams, which indicates that the lead isn’t so big. Is it big enough to survive the fact that the Big 12 champion will pick up another superior win this weekend? Does how dominant the win is matter? No one knows, but we’ll likely find out on Sunday.

The Rose Bowl

Assuming that Ohio State is in the College Football Playoff, there is still a little intrigue as to who goes to the Rose Bowl from the Big Ten. Wisconsin, at No. 8, currently sits two spots ahead of Penn State. The committee has shown a tendency to not punish conference championship game losers too much. It also has a tendency to not punish teams that lose to elite teams. Case in point, Michigan dropped only one spot this week after being eviscerated by Ohio State. That’s great news for Wisconsin, which can’t afford to drop more than one spot if it loses to Ohio State again. (If the Badgers beat Ohio State, they will be in the Rose Bowl–unless they get enough chaos to reach the CFP.)

On the Pac 12 side, the Rose Bowl picture is pretty simply. It will most likely be Oregon appearing in the game. The Ducks could win the Pac 12 Championship Game and reach the Rose Bowl. If Oregon loses, though, there is still a chance that Utah reaches the CFP, in which case Oregon goes to the Rose Bowl. If Utah wins but cannot crack the Top 4, then the Utes will be playing in the Rose Bowl.

Next… NY6 Bowls and other takeaways

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What to look for in the CFP selection committee’s fifth rankings

The College Football Playoff selection committee will be releasing its second-to-last rankings Tuesday night. Here’s what to look for.

The College Football Playoff selection committee’s penultimate rankings will be released tonight (Tuesday). There isn’t too much intrigue in them, and we are a bit past the point of the season where the committee will send us real messages–not that messages earlier in the season have been particularly consistent.

Instead, there are a few important things to look at as we set the stage for next week’s CFP selections and for the other New Years’ Six bids.

Utah vs Big 12

The first thing to look at is where the committee places the Utes. Utah has been ahead of Oklahoma and Baylor the past few weeks. If that stays the same, then we have no new information. If, however, Oklahoma (and/or Baylor) jumps Utah this week, that would show us that the Utes are on the outside looking in when it comes to the No. 4 spot. Also, remember to listen to what Rob Mullens says about this discussion, as he will almost certainly tell us something about how the committee compared Utah to the Big 12 teams. How meaningful that explanation is is anyone’s guess, but it will be the best we have.

Where do Alabama and Wisconsin move to?

Conference pecking order in the Big Ten will matter for the Rose Bowl, and for the SEC could matter for the Orange Bowl (or Sugar Bowl, if Georgia and LSU both make the Playoff). Will Wisconsin jump Penn State? If not, the Nittany Lions are all but guaranteed a Rose Bowl bid (assuming Wisconsin doesn’t beat Ohio State). If yes, then it will depend on if Wisconsin can keep the Big Ten Championship Game close enough to still stay ahead of Penn State. The committee has shown a trend of not dropping teams too far for losing in conference championship games. We’ll see if this year’s committee holds to that.

Alabama, meanwhile, will certainly fall out of the Top 8. The question is how much lower the Tide lands. Will Alabama fall behind Penn State or Wisconsin? What about Florida? Will the committee drop Alabama far enough to move it behind Auburn? Remember, the highest-ranked Big Ten or SEC team after the Rose and Sugar Bowl selections are made will go to the Orange Bowl. Florida currently sits in that position, assuming Georgia loses the SEC Championship Game. Will Wisconsin take the Rose Bowl spot and move Penn State to the Orange Bowl? Or Will Alabama become the new leading two-loss team and sit in line for the Orange Bowl? Could we see–as Penn State’s win over Michigan got weaker and Florida’s win over Auburn got better–the Gators jump Penn State, and move in to Orange Bowl position for the SEC?

The Group of 5 teams

The last bit of curiosity–other than the options at the bottom of the rankings (many of which are defensible and none particularly strong)–is how far Cincinnati falls. Will the Bearcats slide significantly behind Boise State, enough to hint that the Broncos are the Cotton Bowl favorites if Cincinnati beats Memphis this week? Or will Cincinnati only fall one or two spots (or maybe even stay ahead of the Broncos), indicating that a win over Memphis will likely be enough to jump Cincinnati back into the Cotton Bowl? Maybe Air Force showing up at the No. 25 spot would shed some light on this, but there’s honestly zero reason for the committee to rank Air Force over a Navy team that beat it head-to-head, so don’t expect to see the Falcons in here.

Other than that, things are pretty simple for the selection committee this week. The Top 17 have essentially locked themselves in, and all the fighting is from 18 on down. There are a few small questions we can get answers to, but for the most part we know all of the scenarios heading into conference championship game weekend.

Week 14 CFP Implications: Chalk or chaos?

With just one week remaining in the college football season, we can look at the likely Playoff participants based on the outcomes.

A wild college football weekend saw the second Iron Bowl win by Auburn in the last three years. This time, though, it means that we will have a College Football Playoff without Alabama for the first time ever. We also saw Ohio State once again blow out a Michigan team expected to be competitive.

So, where does this leave us in the College Football race? We have five potentially meaningful games next week, though depending on how the other games go, the ACC Championship Game might not mean much. Let’s break down the stakes in each of the conference championship games. But first, let’s talk about what makes life simple for the committee.

The chalk scenario

There is only one real case of chalk this upcoming week. That would be championship game wins by Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson. As long as that happens, three Playoff spots are locked up. If Oregon wins, then the Big 12 champion is the fourth team. If Utah beats Oregon (especially if it’s by a wide margin), then we’ll have a two-team bubble of Utah and the Big 12 champion. The second case might be a tough choice for the committee, but at least it’s simple, clear-cut, and involves picking only one out of two teams. Any other scenario, and the committee is stuck sifting out three or more teams for at least the final two spots. That could be messy in a lot of ways, though considering Ohio State and LSU as virtual locks might make things easier. We can’t say any of that for sure until we see the games, though.

Next… The five conference championship games

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