Had the Minnesota Golden Gophers not beaten Penn State and made themselves an even bigger target for the Wisconsin Badgers, we wouldn’t be devoting quite as much time or energy to the task of beating the Gophers on Nov. 30. Yet, one can’t work with events as one wishes they would be. One must deal with events as they actually are. It’s called living in the real world.
Minnesota has made itself more of a problem for Wisconsin. It’s not what UW fans wanted, but it is the reality the Badgers must confront. That will be a very hard game to win. Therefore, it is worth spending some of these November days focusing not just on Nebraska and then Purdue, but on P.J. Fleck and his folks. How will the Badgers go into Minneapolis and come away with Paul Bunyan’s Axe?
Based on Wisconsin’s win over the Iowa Hawkeyes this past Saturday, a number of interesting questions and attached tension points have emerged. The question I will explore in this particular piece is as follows: Can Wisconsin win this game simply by eradicating mistakes, or will the Badgers need to push themselves far beyond their limits?
Yes, the best answer is “both,” but let’s be clear before we continue with this brief piece: Against Ohio State (or, to use a non-Big Ten example, LSU or Clemson), it is obvious that Wisconsin and other second-tier teams in the United States have to play way over their heads and make “value-added” plays to have a real chance to win. Is Minnesota that kind of opponent? I am inclined to say “no,” but my opinion doesn’t matter that much. A reasonable middle ground on this question is that while Minnesota certainly isn’t in Ohio State’s league, the Gophers made Penn State look bad for much of this past Saturday’s game and — had they not fumbled when leading by two scores in the third quarter — could have blown the doors off the Nittany Lions.
Minnesota went from being “a team which beats up on the bottom of the Big Ten” to “a team that is for real” against Penn State. Do we know yet if the Gophers are not merely “for real” and “a team to be taken seriously,” but genuinely ELITE? I don’t think so.
The tricky part for Wisconsin: The Badgers can’t use that lack of knowledge to assume they can win merely by avoiding mistakes against the Gophers. This leads us into the heart of this piece, and one of the most fascinating tension points of the game on Nov. 30 in TCF Bank Stadium:
Lots of talk about the #Badgers' illegal formation penalties. UW also had three false-start penalties in opening quarter. None after that, however.
— Jeff Potrykus (@jaypo1961) November 10, 2019
The Badgers’ offense improved when the dumb penalties ceased. Wisconsin’s offense got out of its own way. Its running game flourished when the Badgers weren’t behind schedule. Two plus two equals four.
However, after the offense got out of its own way, the defense allowed a 75-yard touchdown and endured another one of its fourth-quarter swoons, the previous one being against Illinois. We wrote about the problems in the secondary which have allowed that alarming detail to remain part of this team’s identity in the second half of the season.
Imagine, then, if both the offense and the defense spend a full game not making huge mistakes, with the level of performance we saw from Jack Coan (tolerable, but not spectacular). Is that going to be enough against the Gophers? It’s an interesting query. One could go back and forth on that topic.
The strength of the argument rests with the offensive line. If there aren’t any false-start penalties and Jonathan Taylor gets four or more yards per carry, the Badgers could pound Minnesota’s defensive front and turn this game into the trench warfare battle they want. A game based on the elimination of mistakes could be all Wisconsin needs.
The weakness of this argument is based on the awareness of how much speed Minnesota has, not only in relationship to Iowa but to a Wisconsin team which was outflanked at times by Illinois. Keep in mind that if Jack Coan throws the ball against Minnesota the way he did against Iowa, the Gophers’ closing speed in the secondary might turn Wisconsin catches into incompletions on successful pass breakups. Eliminating bad mistakes from the ledger sheet will put Wisconsin in position to win, but that might not be enough to put UW over the top.
Yes, Wisconsin’s offense fixed its problems versus Iowa, and the team in general took a clear step forward from the previous two games. Yet, will that be enough to beat Minnesota? You don’t have to answer that question right away… and that’s part of the point. Wisconsin will have to wrestle with that question over the next few weeks. This is the reality facing the Badgers, now that the Gophers have made themselves such an obstacle, at least in 2019.