Orange Bowl
Restrictions: None
Likely teams: Wisconsin, Penn State
Potential Opponents: Virginia
The Big Ten is not guaranteed to get a team in the Orange Bowl. In fact, the most likely scenario right now is that it will not get one. If LSU beats Georgia and the Bulldogs don’t make the Playoff, then Georgia will go to the Sugar Bowl and, based on current rankings, Florida will go to the Orange Bowl. (The Orange Bowl is obligated to take the highest-ranked Big Ten or SEC team.) If two SEC teams make the Playoff (or if the committee changes its mind and moves Penn State back over Florida), then whichever of Penn State or Wisconsin does not go to the Rose Bowl will go to the Orange Bowl.
Virginia is essentially guaranteed to be the opponent in the Orange Bowl.
Cotton Bowl Classic
Restrictions: None
Likely teams: Wisconsin, Penn State
Potential Opponents: Memphis, Cincinnati, Boise State
I don’t want to go too into this, because it does not seem likely that a Big Ten team will reach the Cotton Bowl. However, if the Big 12 Championship Game loser falls below Penn State and Wisconsin, or if the winner doesn’t reach the CFP, then there is a chance that a Big Ten school will receive the at-large bid to face the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion in the Cotton Bowl. This can only happen if no Big Ten team is selected for the Orange Bowl.
Citrus Bowl
Restrictions: Penn State
Likely teams: Wisconsin, Michigan
Potential Opponents: Alabama
Penn State cannot play in this game because it played in the Citrus Bowl last year. If Wisconsin falls this far, it will be tough for the Citrus Bowl to give up the Big Ten runner-up Badgers. Of course, the Citrus Bowl gets New Years’ Day billing and gets to pick its teams from the Big Ten and the SEC. The prospect of Michigan vs Alabama will just be too lucrative for the Citrus Bowl to give up. At this point, it would be shocking to see any other matchup.
Remember, though that the Citrus Bowl only gets a Big Ten team if an SEC team plays in the Orange Bowl.
Outback Bowl
Restrictions: Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin
Likely teams: Penn State, Minnesota
Potential Opponents: Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M
It would be shocking to see Penn State fall this far, but it’s not impossible. If the Nittany Lions just barely miss out on an NY6 Bowl (something that becomes far more likely if Virginia beats Clemson) then they will be shuffled down to the Outback Bowl. Assuming that doesn’t happen, though, the only real choice here is Minnesota. With restrictions on Iowa and Michigan, there are no real other options. The Outback Bowl and Big Ten would both prefer to see Minnesota in this game instead of Indiana, which is the only other theoretically possible choice. (In the incredibly unlikely event that the Rose Bowl picks Minnesota and Penn State gets the Orange or Cotton Bowl, we could theoretically see Indiana here, but that’s not happening.)
The only team I can see the SEC putting in this game is Auburn. It would be a ranked vs ranked matchup in a good New Years’ Day game. If the SEC prefers to send Auburn to the Gator Bowl for some reason, then Texas A&M and Tennessee are the other two options, with the choice likely going to Texas A&M.
Gator Bowl
Restrictions: Iowa, Penn State
Likely teams: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana
Potential Opponents: Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M
I don’t actually think Wisconsin will still on the board at this point. However, if Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl, Wisconsin doesn’t get an NY6 game, and the Citrus Bowl takes Michigan, this is where the Badgers will end up. Yes, that’s very unlikely. But it is a possibility, and likely not one that Wisconsin fans will appreciate. Similarly, if Penn State fell to the Outback Bowl in the unlikely scenario given above, then Minnesota would be selected here. Still, by far the most likely case is that Indiana goes to the Gator Bowl. If Wisconsin or Penn State is in the Orange Bowl, which means that the Big Ten doesn’t play in the Citrus Bowl, then Michigan will almost certainly play in this game.
The opponent will likely be Texas A&M, though Auburn and Tennessee are possibilities as well.