Tag: College Football Playoff

Better Job: Florida State or USC?

On this week’s episode of the College Football News Podcast with myself and Pete Fiutak we recap the LSU/Alabama slug-fest from Saturday while getting into what the playoff rankings will look like tonight when the new top-25 is released. Listen to …

On this week’s episode of the College Football News Podcast with myself and Pete Fiutak we recap the LSU/Alabama slug-fest from Saturday while getting into what the playoff rankings will look like tonight when the new top-25 is released.

Listen to the episode RIGHT HERE!

Is Alabama now out of the CFP and if so, who will be the team with the best case to replace them?  Pac-12 champion, perhaps?  Or maybe Georgia or even Oklahoma, assuming Baylor doesn’t go unbeaten?

Finally the guys look ahead to the weekend of games while also finding time to remember Charles Rogers.

The conversation also discusses current and potential head coach openings at Florida State and USC as the guys discuss where each of those jobs currently rank.  Check it out and subscribe and rate if you’re a college football fan and haven’t already.

As always thanks for listening and go Irish!

College Football Playoff projection: Alabama’s chances still high after LSU loss

The Crimson Tide still have a ridiculously high chance to make the playoff.

If you thought Alabama’s Week 11 loss to LSU on Saturday would severely damage the Crimson Tide’s chance of making the College Football Playoff this year, we have some bad news.

Although it did take a sizable hit, Alabama still has a 40 percent chance to make the playoff but only a nine percent chance to win it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. Those numbers plunged from last week, when the team had a 72 and 22 percent chance, respectively, but the Crimson Tide are still No. 4 on this list.

Unlike the weekly College Football Playoff rankings, ESPN’s Playoff Predictor is an algorithm that considers factors like strength of schedule, losses, eventual conference championships, the Football Power Index and the selection committee’s past behavior to determine the top teams’ playoff chances. That last one seems like it’s having a notably impact on these numbers because Alabama has been invited to the playoff previously without winning the SEC championship game, which it won’t play in this year thanks to LSU.

These numbers are assuming the Crimson Tide win out just like they’re expected to. The FPI gives them a 56.4 percent chance to win out as they close the regular season with games against Mississippi State, Western Carolina and Auburn. Alabama does not have a win against a currently ranked team, but with a 64.8 percent chance to beat Auburn at the end of the month, the Playoff Predictor anticipates a win there being enough for a strong playoff push.

With that key win over Alabama, LSU’s chances have obviously skyrocketed. The Tigers’ chance to make the playoff is up to 87 percent from 56 percent last week, while their title chance increased to 17 percent from 10 percent. Still seems a little low, right? That’s probably because the Playoff Predictor is hugely favoring Ohio State.

The Buckeyes still have the best chance to do everything. Their shot to make the playoff keeps getting closer and closer to 100 percent and is up to 89 percent from 85 last week. Their chance to win the national championship is also up four points to 40 percent this week. With Penn State’s loss to Minnesota this week, the Nittany Lions are clearly beatable, so Ohio State is favored to beat them in a couple weeks (and win the Big Ten) even more now.

And don’t forget about Clemson. The defending national champs are No. 3 with an 82 percent chance to make the playoff and a 23 percent chance to win it all again — a number second to only Ohio State. They had a 74 percent chance to make the playoff and a 19 percent chance to have back-to-back titles following Week 10. The Tigers have a significantly lower strength of schedule than the other teams in the top six, but they’re also massively favored to win out and finish another season undefeated.

As the regular season winds down, there’s almost no room for error for these top-4 teams (or room for another one for Alabama) because Oregon and Georgia are just waiting to make a move if they keep winning. Here’s a look at ESPN’s Playoff Predictor list going into Week 12.

1. Ohio State (9-0)

Playoff: 89 percent
Win championship: 40 percent

2. LSU (9-0)

Playoff: 87 percent
Win championship: 17 percent

3. Clemson (10-0)

Playoff: 82 percent
Win championship: 23 percent

4. Alabama (8-1)

Playoff: 40 percent
Win championship: 9 percent

5. Oregon (8-1)

Playoff: 32 percent
Win championship: 3 percent

6. Georgia (8-1)

Playoff: 25 percent
Win championship: 3 percent

7. Oklahoma (8-1)

Playoff: 11 percent
Win championship: 1 percent

8. Penn State (8-1)

Playoff: 11 percent
Win championship: 2 percent

9. Utah (8-1)

Playoff: 7 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

10. Auburn (7-2)

Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

11. Baylor (9-0)

Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

12. Minnesota (9-0)

Playoff: 4 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

13. Florida (7-2)

Playoff: 2 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

The remaining teams on the Playoff Predictor list, including Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Michigan, all have a less than one percent chance to make the playoff. See the full list here.

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Cavalcade of Whimsy: America, You Actually Believe Alabama Is Out Of The College Football Playoff?

LSU didn’t end Alabama’s College Football Playoff hopes, and the most important position, in the latest Cavalcade of Whimsy.

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LSU didn’t end Alabama’s College Football Playoff hopes, and the most important position, in the latest Cavalcade of Whimsy.

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– Check out all the past Cavalcades
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Sorry if this column sucks, it’s not my fault …

There was about to be a moment of relief after an ugly run of bad columns. This one was up by 25 going into the final quarter, and then Illinois scored four touchdowns to send it into a deeper shame-spiral. There was joyful hopping.

“How do you shoot the Devil in the back? What if you miss?”

(Before we get started, and knowing your blood is about to boil, I do have the answer to all of this in a later blurb.)

Seriously, America? You think LSU just killed the elephant?

You actually think Alabama is out of the College Football Playoff now? Have you learned absolutely nothing over the last ten years of college football?

You might not like it, and you might deny it, and you might try to wish it all away, but you also know exactly how this is going to turn out.

You know who else knows? Nick Saban.

There’s a reason he was so chilaxed after his defense got embarrassingly pantsed for the second time in ten months by a team with elite offensive talent. He has seen it all before.

Of all programs, LSU should (bleep)ing know better than to be pouring Gatorade, doing victory laps, and being hailed at home coming off the plane as if it’s all over.

It was over in 2011.

LSU went on the road and beat Alabama 9-6, and that was that.

Bama fell to third in the BCS standings, and Oklahoma State moved up to No. 2 as it crushed and killed everything in its path. And then came that fateful Friday night at Iowa State with a missed Cowboy field goal that really did look good, bad throws by Brandon Weeden, and a stunning loss that led to the big debate.

You can’t have a team that didn’t win its own division, much less its own conference, play in a rematch for the BCS Championship after losing the first time around at home. It’s wrong, it’s unconscionable, it’s not fair to the college football season, it’s …

Alabama 21, LSU 0. 2011 National Champion Alabama.

It was over in 2012.

Johnny Manziel walked into Tuscaloosa and left with a Heisman, along with a 29-24 win over the 9-0 No. 1 Tide. That was it. Bama blew it. You can’t lose that late in the season at home and end up in the national title.

The Tide fell to fourth in the BCS Standings, and then …

No. 1 Kansas State was exposed in a blowout loss at Baylor, a monster No. 2 Oregon team blew it in a 17-14 home loss to Stanford, Notre Dame won out, Bama moved back up to No. 2, and …

Alabama 42, Notre Dame 14. 2012 National Champion Alabama.

I’m old enough to remember 2017.

Bama beat a whole lot of no one – sound familiar? – lost the regular-season finale to Auburn, didn’t win its own division, didn’t win its own conference, and yada, yada, yada, it got the massive break of a two-loss Ohio State stopping a 12-0 Wisconsin on a late drive in the Big Ten Championship.

Bama slipped into the College Football Playoff as the No. 4 seed, destroyed Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, got to Atlanta, and …

Alabama 26, Georgia 23. 2017 National Champion Alabama.

I have screamed, yelled, bitched, whined, prayed, and pleaded my case for years and years and years that a team that can’t win its own division shouldn’t be able to win the national title. I’d love absolutely nothing more than a College Football Playoff with four fresh new schools – say, LSU, Minnesota, Baylor, Utah – in the mix.

But that’s not how the College Football Playoff works.

It’s about who the committee thinks the four best teams are, and as much as we all might not like it – especially with just one decent win on the slate – yeah, that’s Alabama.

If he committee liked the Tide enough to put them No. 3 in the first round of rankings, it’s not going to have a whole slew of issues at the end of the season in the whole four-best-team argument if they win out – again, more on that in a moment.

Like it or not, no matter how the sausage was made, Bama put up 41 points. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 418 yards and four scores on a bum ankle – get ready for that to be a talking point in a few weeks – Najee Harris ran for 146 yards and scored twice, and in the end, the team looked the part of one of the four best teams – at least offensively. It might not be one of the three best, but fourth?

Who’s that fourth team – at least in the eyes of the CFP committee – if it’s not Bama?

It’s been cute and all, but Minnesota and Baylor aren’t getting into the College Football Playoff.

Oregon? Lost to Auburn. If Bama beats Auburn at Auburn, there goes that.

I actually think Utah could do some damage in the tournament, but it has to get there first, and the loss to USC doesn’t help.

Who’s got the chops to finish out the rest of the way without another loss?

Oklahoma? Yeeesh. Georgia? More than you think (again, give me a moment). Penn State? Intriguing (also, it’s coming in a second), but probably not considering it lost to Minnesota and Bama lost to the No. 2-soon-to-be-No. 1 team.

So who? Who’s that fourth team? You? You, Lieutenant Weinberg?

LSU, next time you kill something, make sure it stays dead.

Now, I know exactly what’s coming next, because, of course …

NEXT: It’s the media’s fault

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Should Ohio State still be ranked at the top of the CFP Rankings this week?

Both Ohio State and LSU will have a case to make when it comes to being ranked No. 1 in the next College Football Playoff Rankings.

After totally dismantling Maryland this past week in a 73-14 win, does it still warrant Ohio State being ranked No. 1 this week in the College Football Playoff rankings? On Saturday Ohio State put up the most points against any Big Ten team since 1950. That — in itself — is quite impressive.

But the Buckeyes weren’t the only team that put on an impressive showing.

With the huge win against Alabama and four top 25 wins, LSU has a good argument to be number one when the rankings come out Tuesday night. The Tigers’ resume that includes high caliber wins  is tough to argue, but it poses the question of what the committee values the most? Pure dominance or wins against ranked opponents? In other words, is it best resume, or most dominant and impressive team via the eye test and metrics?

We digress and discuss …

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Next … LSU’s case

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What to look for in the CFP selection committee’s second rankings

With the College Football Playoff selection committee about to release their second rankings of the year, here’s what to look out for.

Before I look at what we should be focusing on in the committee’s second rankings, let me start with what not to worry about, even though it will be the most-discussed topic by many pundits.

It doesn’t matter whether LSU or Ohio State is No. 1.

One of those two will be the top-ranked team. Each of them has a valid argument. Ohio State is exemplifying dominance in a way that college football hasn’t seen since the 2013 Florida State team. The Buckeyes have historically high advanced metrics. Ohio State is the best team in college football so far this year, without question.

LSU, also without question, has the best resume. Starting with the win over Alabama as a capstone, the Tigers also have wins over Top 10-15 Florida and Auburn, plus a win over a ranked Texas team. Even LSU’s cupcakes, like Georgia Southern and Utah State, aren’t complete pushovers. LSU has an incredible strength of schedule and the most quality wins of anyone in the country.

Which of those two the committee chooses to put at No. 1 will give us a bit of evidence as to whether the voters care more about metrics or resume, but not much. It’s usually some form of synthesis between the two, and with two teams so far ahead of the rest of the pack like Ohio State and LSU, it really doesn’t matter which they pick.

What the committee says about its decision might mean something. If Rob Mullens said the vote wasn’t particularly close, that would give us some real insight into the committee’s thought process and what it values this year. Unless we get that information, though, don’t focus too much into which team is No. 1 and which is No. 2. Each team is a Playoff lock if it wins out, or even if it loses a game but wins the conference. The top seed only matters for geography and matchup purposes, and with Clemson currently a heavy favorite to finish No. 3, it doesn’t look like anyone could be stuck with the nuisance of facing Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Other than that one, very minor, geographic concern, it really doesn’t matter who is No. 1.

So, what does matter this week? There’s plenty, so let’s break it down.

Poll mentality or not?

The first thing I always focus on in the committee’s rankings is how many teams shift, and by how much. And I don’t mean the teams that win big games or lose games. I mean every team.

The committee claims to start with a blank slate every week. The voters don’t use who they had ranked last week as a starting point. The very best way to tell if this is true or not is by seeing if teams that didn’t do anything noteworthy have their ranking change. Can a team slide up or down after a boring but easy win over a mediocre team? If we’re being honest, that should happen a lot. Every team has played at least eight games by now, so resumes can shift wildly each week.

For example, Ohio State’s previous opponents went a combined 4-2 last week, and Indiana will possibly slide into the rankings during its bye week. That means that, even though a blowout win over Maryland might be meaningless, Ohio State’s resume still improved this past week, and by a decent margin. Now, that’s not going to affect Ohio State’s ranking much because the Buckeyes are obviously either No. 1 or No. 2, but if Ohio State was stuck somewhere in the middle of the rankings, that should lead to new considerations.

The first few years of the selection committee, we actually saw a fair amount of this. Teams would shift on their own, which is a great indicator that resumes were actually being re-judged each week. The past year or two, however, we have not yet really seen much shifting. The committee would make its initial rankings, then stick with a poll mentality unless something changed it. Keep an eye on everyone in this week’s rankings, because it will show if the committee is actually re-evaluating teams.

Next… Where is Alabama

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting Boise State In The Week 12 Top 25

After another hard-fought Mountain West football victory, where will the Broncos end up in the CFP pecking order? We make our prediction.

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting Boise State In The Week 12 Top 25

After another hard-fought Mountain West football victory, where will the Broncos end up in the CFP pecking order? We make our prediction.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Moving up, but by how much?

The Boise State Broncos didn’t have it easy on Saturday night, but after defeating the Wyoming Cowboys in a defensive showcase, their standing in the Group of 5’s College Football Playoff clump is intact. With San Diego State’s shocking defeat at home against Nevada, the Broncos once again stand alone as the conference’s standard-bearer for the New Year’s Six bowl bid.

Will the latest national developments be enough for Boise State to improve that standing, though? As always, keep this in mind first: A lot can change in a week and in the College Football Playoff era and things have definitely tended to change quite a bit over the course of a month or so.

Here’s a quick recap of the weekend that was and what it might mean.

Who lost?

From the top:

  • #3 Alabama lost at home to #2 LSU, 46-41
  • #4 Penn State lost on the road to #17 Minnesota, 31-26
  • #16 Kansas State lost on the road to Texas, 27-24
  • #18 Iowa lost on the road to #13 Wisconsin, 24-22
  • #19 Wake Forest lost on the road to Virginia Tech, 36-17

For Boise State’s purposes, the last two losses on the list seem likely to translate to some upward mobility. At this time last year, 5-3 Texas A&M fell out of the rankings from #20 after losing to 5-3 Auburn, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see the same thing happen to Wake Forest and its bland resume (Have you heard the ACC is not good this year?).

Oddly enough, this is the second straight year the Hawkeyes have dropped a game immediately after the first CFP reveal, though this time around it’s not quite as egregious as losing to Purdue on the road. Last year, #17 Texas fell just two spots after losing by two to #13 West Virginia last season, so Iowa might just fall into the middle of the G5 morass this week.

Figuring out what will happen with Kansas State is a tougher nut to crack. From 2015 to 2018, seven teams ranked in the teens (13 to 19) have lost to unranked but better than .500 opponents after the first CFP rankings came out. Four of those teams fell out of the second top 25 altogether, but the aforementioned Iowa/Purdue game is instructive, as is Iowa State/West Virginia from 2017, since close losses are damaging — the Hawkeyes and Cyclones fell by five and six spots, respectively — but not fatal.

By Way of Comparison: How did the Group of 5 fare?

  • #20 Cincinnati defeated UConn at home, 48-3
  • #25 SMU defeated East Carolina at home, 59-51
  • Appalachian State defeated South Carolina on the road, 20-15
  • Louisiana Tech defeated North Texas at home, 52-17
  • UCF lost on the road to Tulsa, 34-31

Congratulations are in order, first and foremost, for UCF coming to the realization that no matter much how you thump your chest, no football program can become Boise State overnight.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, did exactly what was expected in dispatching the Huskies, but their immediate problem is that they may not make much headway in the rankings on their own until they host Temple on November 16. UConn doesn’t move the needle and beating a sub-.500 South Florida team probably won’t do the trick, either.

SMU, meanwhile, seems to be more lucky than good lately, as they now stand at 5-1 in games decided by eight or fewer points. Teams that don’t play defense tend to see that catch up with them at some point in November, so while they’ll probably rise with the rest of the G5 tide this week and next while they’re on bye, their upcoming clash at Navy is going to be a real gut check.

Appalachian State and Louisiana Tech, on the other hand, face a similar struggle. They’re racking up wins, yes, but strength of schedule matters to the committee and neither the Mountaineers nor the Bulldogs have it right now. The template, until further notice, is 2014 Marshall, which didn’t reach the CFP rankings until getting to 11-0 on November 25. App State’s cause would be helped if both North Carolina and South Carolina can claw their way to bowl eligibility, while LaTech will get tested with back-to-back road games at Marshall and then division foe UAB. Stay tuned.

So what do I think the top 25 will look like? Read on.

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College Football Playoff Rankings Projection, Week 2: What Will They Be On Tuesday Night?

What will the College Football Playoff rankings be in the second unveiling on Tuesday night?

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What will the College Football Playoff rankings be in the second unveiling on Tuesday night?

This just cleared up fast in a whole slew of ways.

After a big weekend with a slew of important results, there are now seven teams that control their own destinies. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Minnesota, Baylor and Penn State. For those seven, win out, and get into the College Football Playoff.

For everyone else – and this includes Oklahoma, Oregon and Utah – it’s going to take winning out and getting some help. This year, 12-1 with a Power Five conference championship might not be good enough because of …

Alabama.

The Crimson Tide haven’t beaten anyone of note other than Texas A&M, but how much will the committee care? With a date at Auburn to close out, if the Tide win and go 11-1, and if LSU wins out and goes 13-0 with an SEC championship, can there be a new precedent set?

There’s a long way to go, but unlike last year when there were just two unbeaten Power Five teams – Alabama and Clemson – along with Notre Dame by this point, there are five.

As always, a few things to keep in mind …

1. This is simply a snapshot. We can see how the committee is thinking early on, and we can get a first look at what it seems to like, but it gets thrown out next week and the process starts over.

2. In general, the committee over the first five years of this thing loves big wins and hates ugly losses. You can lose, but don’t get wiped out. At the end of the day, the committee can like any team it wants to, just because. However … big wins, big wins, big wins.

3. Each spot in the order is argued over. It’s not just a random list thrown together in a room. Everyone has to agree that team X needs to get put ahead of teams Y and Z. You might not agree with the rankings, but each spot in the top 25 has been meticulously debated.

And after all of that, it’s about feel, eye-test, and resumé.

So what will they be? Here’s the best guess for what the second College Football Playoff rankings will be on Tuesday night.

25. Kansas State Wildcats 6-3 (16)

Being the one team that beat Oklahoma will be just enough to allow the Wildcats to hang on in the top 25. The wins over Mississippi State and TCU help, and the three losses were to Baylor at home, and Texas and Oklahoma State on the road. All three will be likely be ranked.

24. Oklahoma State Cowboys 6-3 (25)

Arguably the biggest surprise in the first top 25, the Cowboys managed to somehow slip into the first rankings thanks to a win over a Kansas State team that beat Oklahoma. There isn’t a lot else to like, but despite the off-week, they’re not going to slip out of the rankings.

23. Texas Longhorns 6-3 (NR)

The win over Kansas State changes the game. The Longhorn loss to TCU hurts, and the rough game against Kansas is a problem, but the team managed to get by the Wildcats this week, and the two other losses were to Oklahoma and LSU – nothing wrong with that. The win over Oklahoma State a few weeks ago will be enough to get into the top 25.

22. SMU Mustangs 9-1 (25)

The offense is still a blast. There’s no defense whatsoever, but there’s still a win over a TCU team that beat Texas, and the offense has not scored 41 points or more in eight of its last nine games. It’ll move up a wee bit, but not enough to get in range of the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl quite yet.

21. Navy Midshipmen 7-1 (24)

Navy was off this week, but it gets its chance to make a massive statement to the committee with a trip to Notre Dame this week and with SMU to follow. The win over Air Force was good, but that’s it. The ranking is almost all about the 7-1 record.

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20. Iowa Hawkeyes 6-3 (18)

How far will the Hawkeyes slide? Not far. The three losses were to Wisconsin and Michigan on the road and at home to Penn State by a combined 14 points. There isn’t a strong win – Iowa State comes close – but that chance is coming against Minnesota this week.

19. Boise State Broncos 8-1 (22)

Boise State isn’t remotely passing the eye-test – it’s struggling way too much lately with QB Hank Bachmeier banged up and having a hard time staying on the field – but there’s still the win at Florida State, there’s still a win over Air Force, and in all, there’s a good chance it has wins over seven teams that will go bowling.

18. Memphis Tigers 8-1 (21)

The Tigers didn’t play this week, but their ranking will be strengthened – and improved – thanks to SMU coming up with a ninth win – MU beat SMU 54-48 two weeks ago. At the moment, the Tigers gave both SMU and Navy their only losses.

17. Cincinnati Bearcats 8-1 (20)

This will be one of the key teams that will benefit from the several losses this weekend. The 48-3 blowout of UConn won’t matter to the committee, but with losses by Iowa, Kansas State and Wake Forest, UC will move on up and stay on top of the Group of Five pack.

16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 7-2 (15)

The 38-7 blowout win over Duke on the road was nice, but the Fighting Irish can’t get moved ahead of Michigan – they lost 45-14 a few weeks ago in Ann Arbor – and they need a lot of help to start moving up. However, beat Navy, Boston College and Stanford to finish at 10-2, and at worst, they’ll get one of the ACC’s top bowl games.

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15. Michigan Wolverines 7-2 (14)

The Wolverines will be stuck in neutral – and should drop a spot – after not playing this week and with a slew of other big things happening. With Michigan State, at Indiana, and Ohio State still to play, a New Year’s Six game will still be possible as they stay in the top 15.

14. Wisconsin Badgers 7-2 (13)

The 24-22 win over Iowa was nice, but it needs Minnesota to lose once, and it needs to win out against Nebraska, Purdue, and the Gophers to get to the Big Ten Championship. There’s going to be a LOT of traffic ahead of the Badgers to get to the Rose Bowl, but they’ll be in range.

13. Auburn Tigers 7-2 (11)

Will the committee fix the glitch? Auburn lost to Florida and LSU – it should be ranked behind those two. Florida also lost to Georgia – it’ll be ranked lower than the Dawgs. Auburn beat Oregon, who doesn’t have that many great wins, but the Ducks were No. 7 and AU 11. The Tigers can’t win the SEC West, but if they beat Georgia this week and shock Alabama, they’re a lock for the New Year’s Six, and maybe the Sugar Bowl.

12. Florida Gators 8-2 (10)

The committee will get it right by putting the Gators ahead of Auburn, but they’ll still be ranked too low. They’ll drop a bit only because of all the other things going on, and the 56-0 whacking of Vanderbilt won’t get a whole lot of respect. However, if they get by Missouri and Florida State to close things out, watch out for them to slip into a New Year’s Six game.

11. Oklahoma Sooners 8-1 (9)

The near-collapse to Iowa State will be enough for the committee to correct last week’s mistake. Now it’ll put an unbeaten Baylor – who beat the same Kansas State team that beat Oklahoma – higher, and the 89 points allowed in the last two games will jump off the page.

NEXT: Top Ten

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