Metrics vs resume
I mentioned above that who gets No. 1 would tell us a little bit about what the committee thinks in terms of using advanced metrics (or the eye test) as opposed to judging a team’s resume. What will tell us a lot more about this issue, though, is where the committee puts Alabama.
By almost all advanced metrics, Alabama is still a Top 3-4 team. The Crimson Tide have a decent defense, plus one of the best offenses in the country. Its offensive efficiency numbers are right up there with Oklahoma. The defense has slipped a little from its peak the past few years, but it’s still pretty solid. Also, just watching Alabama play tells you that the Tide are a very good football team. If we’re basing off metrics and eye test, Alabama could stay somewhere around No. 4 or 5.
If we’re judging Alabama’s resume, though, there’s just nothing there. Alabama’s best win so far this year is an unimpressive Texas A&M squad. Texas A&M is 6-3 with a collection of three excellent losses (Clemson, Auburn, and Alabama), but has not beaten a single team that will end the year with a winning record. There is a decent chance that not one of Texas A&M’s wins this year goes bowling. After that Texas A&M win, Alabama’s next win is over… Southern Miss? A Tennessee squad that has turned things around somewhat?
For the first time since losing ten games in 2010, Alabama has fallen out of the Top 10 in the old BCS computers’ resume rankings (Colley and Anderson). The Tide’s lack of meaningful wins even has it down to No. 12 in Wolfe, which was the ranking most likely (along with Sagarin’s ELO ranking) to not punish a team for a loss to a better team.
If we’re comparing records and quality wins this year, which of the following teams should be behind Alabama:
Undefeated Minnesota, with a win over Penn State;
Undefeated Baylor, with wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State;
One-loss Georgia, with a bad loss to South Carolina (which Alabama beat) but wins over Florida and Notre Dame;
One-loss Penn State, with wins over Michigan and Iowa;
One-loss Oregon, with no great wins but a collection of mediocre wins far better than Alabama’s wins overall;
One-loss Oklahoma, with a win over Texas, plus several decent wins better than any of Alabama’s (aside from Texas A&M);
Maybe even two-loss teams like Florida and Auburn, with good wins and good losses?
If the committee goes purely on eye test, Alabama could easily stay as high as No. 4 this week. If the committee wants to purely compare resumes, on the other hand, there’s a case to be made that Alabama’s resume doesn’t belong in the Top 10. (Honestly, go compare Alabama’s collection of wins to those of Memphis and see that there’s a compelling case that Memphis has a better resume than Alabama.)
Whether the committee goes straight eye test, straight resume test, or some synthesis of the two will tell us a lot. And the easiest way to see what the committee values this week is by looking where Alabama ends up.