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Isleta New Mexico Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

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Fresno State will look to end 2023 with a victory over New Mexico State. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

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Contact/Follow @MWCwire

Can the ‘Dogs recapture a little magic in the Land of Enchantment?

ISLETA NEW MEXICO BOWL: New Mexico State Aggies (10-4, 7-1 Conference USA) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4, 4-4 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, December 16 — 2:45 PM PT/3:45 PM MT

WHERE: University Stadium; Albuquerque, NM

WEATHER: Mostly sunny, high of 48 degrees

TV: ESPN

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ESPN, by following this link.

RADIO: The New Mexico State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Aggie Radio Network, including flagship 99.5 FM (KXPZ) in Las Cruces. The Fresno State broadcast can be found in and around the Central Valley on the affiliates of the Bulldog Sports network, including flagship 1340 AM (KCBL) in Fresno.

SERIES RECORD: Fresno State leads the all-time series, 18-1. In the last meeting on September 28, 2019, the Bulldogs defeated the Aggies, 30-17, in Las Cruces.

LAST GAME: New Mexico State lost to Liberty in the Conference USA football championship game, 49-35, while Fresno State lost to San Diego State on the road, 33-18.

WEBSITES: NMStateSports.com, the official New Mexico State athletics website | GoBulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): New Mexico State | Fresno State

ODDS: New Mexico State -3.5

SP+ PROJECTION: New Mexico State by 0.6

FEI PROJECTION: Fresno State by 1.0

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: New Mexico State 51.27% win probability (28.80-27.39)

Mountain West football’s seven-game bowl slate kicks off in Albuquerque on Saturday afternoon, when the Fresno State Bulldogs will take on the New Mexico State Aggies.

The Aggies will be plenty motivated to send one of the program’s best teams ever into the off-season with one last win, and the chances are they’ll get to benefit from a friendly crowd in the stands since the game will take place just three-plus hours from Las Cruces. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, enter the game with far more uncertainty than they had a month ago, in the midst of a three-game losing streak that they’ll look to break without head coach Jeff Tedford, who is currently sidelined with health concerns.

Here’s how the Aggies and Bulldogs can find a path to victory to finish 2023.

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Let’s roll.#AggieUp x #HHLP pic.twitter.com/DMSvH7UnVa

— New Mexico State Football (@NMStateFootball) December 13, 2023

Three Keys to a New Mexico State Victory

1. Don’t lose the turnover battle.

Generally speaking, New Mexico State has done a pretty good job of taking care of the football when playing on offense. The Aggies have just 14 giveaways in 14 games, the fewest in Conference USA, but there’s little doubt that when they’ve been off their game, turnovers have played a big role since eight of those 14 giveaways came in NMSU’s four losses.

By contrast, Fresno State’s defense was one of the most active in the Mountain West at generating takeaways, collecting 22 in 12 games. However, the Bulldogs faltered on that front in their recent losing streak, coming up empty in two of their last three games, so the Aggies might have an advantage simply by avoiding killer mistakes one last time.

2. Get a big performance from the ground game.

NMSU has tended toward balance in their run-pass ratio throughout the season, but they may find it useful to resist Fresno State’s resistance to the run. While the Bulldogs are sixth in the Mountain West by allowing 4.35 yards per carry, they’ve struggled mightily since the calendar turned to November, coughing up 5.86 YPC and eight rushing touchdowns in the last four games.

This could be good news for the Aggies, who don’t have a heavy-lifting RB1 but do have three different players — quarterback Diego Pavia and running backs Star Thomas and Monte Watkins — who have recorded at least 50 rushing attempts and averaged at least 5.39 YPC. That trio has also accounted for a gain of at least ten yards on 20.9% of their combined carries, which is something they’ll almost certainly look to exploit.

3. Win on as many third downs as possible.

One area of the game where New Mexico State and Fresno State have been similarly productive is in moving the chains and keeping opponents from doing the same. The Bulldogs own a slight advantage on offense (46.55% for Fresno State, 43.95% for NMSU), but the Aggies could have an upper hand on defense (35.43% for NMSU, 39.88% for Fresno State).

This might be especially true if the Aggies can force Fresno State into passing downs more often than not. According to CollegeFootballData.com, NMSU allowed a 28% success rate when opponents faced a second down with seven-plus yards to go or a third or fourth down with five-plus yards to go, as well as a 54.8% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks.

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One more ☝️@NMBowl pic.twitter.com/46OFmD949N

— Fresno State Football (@FresnoStateFB) December 12, 2023

Three Keys to a Fresno State Victory

1. Get better pass protection from the offensive line.

One way or another, the Bulldogs are likely to lead with the pass when they attack the Aggies defense. Parker Fleming’s advanced statistics preview notes that Fresno State comes into the bowl game with a rush rate over expected percentage of -11.6%, which means that Pat McCann’s offense run the ball less frequently than all but five other FBS teams.

It isn’t a bad idea when you consider that New Mexico State’s pass rush is more the sum of its parts than one built on individual standouts: Five different Aggies have between three and 4.5 sacks this season. However, Fresno State’s offensive line has struggled badly down the stretch. According to Pro Football Focus, guard Osmar Velez and tackles Toreon Penright and Braylen Nelson each gave up multiple sacks between Weeks 10 and 13; the only other Mountain West offensive line to do that was Nevada.

2. Keep Jonathan Brady’s contributions to a minimum.

Four different Fresno State pass catchers have seen more than the 58 targets that Brady has received in 2023, but you could make a decent case that none of them have done as much as the sophomore from Las Vegas with their share. Brady hasn’t dropped a single pass, for starters, but his team-high 37 receptions and 613 receiving yards will be even more important in the bowl game with his primary running mate, Trent Hudson, gone through the transfer portal.

Whether he lines up opposite Carlton Johnson or Al’zillion Hamilton
more frequently remains to be seen, but it will be a big opportunity for both. Between Weeks 10 and 13, they combined to allow 15 catches and 12.3 yards per reception on 28 targets, so while Brady has averaged 16.6 YPC on the year, his more recent performances have been modest. If the secondary can keep him from stretching the field, it could make for a significant advantage.

3. Ride or die (one more time) with Mikey Keene.

Because it’s no secret the Bulldogs are pass-first, Keene’s presence as the presumably healthy QB1 will be a major factor in whether the offense can overcome its recent sputtering. There’s no doubt his health concerns played a role in the team’s ongoing losing streak, as his 60% completion rate in November was the lowest of any calendar month this year, as were the 5.9 yards he averaged per attempt and the 110.03 passer rating he mustered.

One potential obstacle is NMSU cornerback Andre Seldon, who is arguably the team’s top overall defender. The redshirt sophomore has allowed a catch rate of 42.6% on 61 targets, though he also spends the vast majority of his playing time outside of the numbers. It could mean that Erik Brooks and Jaelen Gill, both of whom have had at least 79% of their snaps out of the slot (per PFF), might be key to softening up the Aggies underneath.

Prediction

They say that time heals all wounds, which is something that Fresno State must hope is true since quarterback health is going to be crucial to their bounce-back efforts in this contest. However, that was less of an excuse for the defense’s recent woes, and that might be an even bigger X-factor. New Mexico State has as many weapons as the Bulldogs do, and there are just enough uncertainties to expect that this will be a close game no matter what, but home cooking and a balanced offensive attack will make a difference in the end for the Aggies to gut out a win.

New Mexico State 31, Fresno State 27

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New Mexico Bowl: First Look At The New Mexico State Aggies

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This year’s New Mexico Bowl features two teams from the old WAC, but Fresno State won’t want to take these revitalized Aggies lightly.

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Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

Las Cruces has been magic all year.

New Mexico State has often been one of the toughest places to win anywhere in the country, so winning as many games as they did this fall, the same number that the Aggies won between 2020 and 2022, makes you sit up and take notice.

Everyone loves an underdog, though, and those same Aggies could have a significant home-field advantage when they face off with the Fresno State Bulldogs in this year’s Isleta New Mexico Bowl, three hours from Las Cruces. After 50 or 60 years in the wilderness, you can’t say they haven’t earned it, but how did NMSU get here?

Here’s what Bulldogs fans need to know about their bowl game opponent.

2023 New Mexico State Aggies — Team Profile

Conference: Conference USA

2023 Record: 10-4 (7-2 Conference USA)

SP+ ranking: 62nd

FEI ranking: 73rd

Sagarin rating: 82nd

Head coach: Jerry Kill (second year at New Mexico State, 25th year overall; 17-10 with Aggies, 175-114 overall)

2023 in a nutshell: After clinching the program’s third winning season and second bowl victory since 2000 last year, the Aggies set about proving this fall that was no fluke. They stumbled out of the gate with a 2-3 record, beating rival New Mexico but dropping road games at Liberty and Hawaii, but righted the ship in time to win eight consecutive contests and earn a rematch against Liberty in the Conference USA championship.

Though they again fell short against the Flames, the Aggies will be comfortable playing up the 25 from Las Cruces since their winning streak included four road wins, including at Western Kentucky and Auburn. In all, the 10-4 record marked the program’s first season with double-digit wins since going 11-0 as part of the Border Intercollegiate Athletic Association in 1960.

Best wins: vs. Jacksonville State (8-4), at Auburn (6-6), at Western Kentucky (7-5)

Key Players

Diego Pavia, QB

It took a while for Pavia to settle into the starting job last season, but he picked up right where he left off and accounted for an average of 269 yards of total offense per game and 7.55 yards per play in 2023. Both figures rank in the top 35 among all FBS players, but it also obscures that he’s more than capable of doing damage with his arm (61.6% completion rate, 8.5 yards per attempt, 24 touchdowns, 2.3% interception rate) and his legs (851 rushing yards, fourth among quarterbacks; six TDs).

While it remains to be seen if Pavia suit up for the bowl game after playing through various aches and pains, he could be a headache for the Bulldogs if he does.

BIG PLAY PAVIA 🙌

What a start for @NMStateFootball!

📺: @CBSSportsNet pic.twitter.com/455GorVslM

— Conference USA (@ConferenceUSA) December 2, 2023

Keyshaun Elliott, LB

After getting his feet wet with the Aggies in 2022, the sophomore Elliott stepped into the starting lineup after one game and never looked back. He led the Aggies with 101 total tackles and 8.5 tackles for loss, finishing fifth among all Conference USA defenders with 45 stops (per PFF), cementing himself as a young star worth watching in the Group of 5.

Andre Seldon, CB

The former Michigan transfer emerged as the anchor in New Mexico State’s secondary this year, his second full season as a starter. Despite facing 61 targets, tied for third-most in Conference USA, he allowed a 42.6% completion rate, picking up 50 tackles, six passes defended, and an interception.

Star Thomas, RB

While the Aggies often deployed a committee in the running game, Thomas had previously led the team in all-purpose yardage and continued to shine as the lead back and Pavia’s primary complement. Though he only has 111 total carries and managed no more than 12 in any one game, the junior has averaged 5.79 yards per carry and scored six total touchdowns.

Walk that walk.😤 @Star4Thomas

Aggies lead 17-3 🤙#AggieUp x #HHLP pic.twitter.com/LWj5rO88NG

— New Mexico State Football (@NMStateFootball) September 24, 2023

Canaan Yarro, C

Yarro brought much-needed stability to the offensive line as one of two players to start every game this season, playing a team-high 882 snaps according to Pro Football Focus. Despite the large workload, he is one of only six FBS centers to have played at least 800 snaps while allowing six or fewer quarterback pressures and zero sacks.

Overview:

Offense

With veterans back at just about every key position, the Aggies had one of their most prolific offensive seasons in recent memory. According to Brian Fremeau, New Mexico State earned 2.63 points per drive (37th in FBS) and 56.5% of available yards per drive (17th), both of which were far and away the team’s best figures dating back to 2007. They also had just 14 giveaways in 14 games, the fewest in Conference USA, so they’re an offense not usually inclined to beat themselves.

In the offensive backfield, Pavia and Thomas typically lead the way with periodic contributions from running backs Monte Watkins and Jamoni Jones (6.46 combined yards per carry, five touchdowns). Yarro and left tackle Shiyazh Pete provide seasoned leadership on the offensive line, supplemented by youngsters like sophomore AJ Vaipulu and redshirt freshman Louie Canepa.

NMSU’s passing game is a fairly balanced one that saw six different players receive at least 20 targets, but the lead pass-catcher is sophomore Jonathan Brady, who led the team with 37 catches for 613 yards, scoring four touchdowns. Junior Trent Hudson paced the Aggies with ten touchdown receptions, averaging 15.9 yards per catch, while Eli Stowers made a transition from quarterback to pitch in with 32 receptions and two scores.

Defense

Compared to the offense, the Aggies defense seems very much a bend-but-don’t-break unit, ranking 101st by available yards percentage allowed (52.0%) per drive but 56th in points per drive allowed (2.12). That they managed to force only 11 takeaways would seem to reinforce this, but NMSU also had a knack for making timely plays when it counts most, finishing second in Conference USA by collecting 31 sacks and holding opponents to a 35.4% third-down conversion rate. They also allowed a 50% touchdown rate on 56 trips into the red zone, one of just 21 FBS defenses to reach that mark.

Up front, sophomores Gabe Peterson and Sterling Webb, the latter of whom was recently named a first-team all-conference performer, lead the charge after combining for 13.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks. Collectively, the front seven knows how to get after the ball, though, as PFF notes six different Aggies had at least a dozen quarterback hurries (for comparison, Fresno State had one).

Peterson, Webb, Elliott, and Seldon make up a formidable nucleus, but they’re far from the only young athletes on this side of the ball. Defensive linemen Buddha Peleti and Gabriel Iniguez, safety Myles Rowser, and linebacker Sone Aupiu are all sophomores who played at least 400 snaps.

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Fresno State Football: Bulldogs To Face New Mexico State In Isleta New Mexico Bowl

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The Bulldogs will end the 2023 season with a tough test against the Aggies in the Land of Enchantment.

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Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

The ‘Dogs look to end the year with a win.

The Fresno State Bulldogs didn’t end their regular season as hoped, but the team was rewarded with a bid in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl, where they will face the New Mexico State Aggies, in a matchup first reported by Action Network’s Brett McMurphy.

𝘽𝙊𝙒𝙇 𝘽𝙊𝙐𝙉𝘿⁠
⁠@FresnoStateFB is going to the Land of Enchantment for the @NMBowl 🐶🏈
⁠#AtThePEAK | #MWFB | #GoDogs pic.twitter.com/eLzvWIIybo

— Mountain West (@MountainWest) December 3, 2023

Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs had a 8-1 record after the first week of November, a stretch through which the team defeated both UNLV and Boise State, but they stumbled in the last few weeks of the season and lost three straight games to fall out of the championship race. To compound matters, the program announced last week that Tedford would temporarily step back from his duties because of health concerns. Despite the unexpected development, Fresno State’s last New Mexico Bowl trip was a fruitful one, defeating UTEP back in 2021.

As for New Mexico State, the Aggies proved that last year’s surge under second-year head coach Jerry Kill was no fluke, joining Conference USA and posting a 10-4 record, the program’s first season with double-digit wins since 1960, while earning a spot in the conference championship game. Though they lost the title to Liberty, NMSU proved its mettle in November with consecutive wins over Western Kentucky, Auburn, and Jacksonville State.

This year’s New Mexico Bowl is set for Saturday, December 16. It will be broadcast on ESPN, kicking off at 2:45 PM Pacific/3:45 PM Mountain.

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